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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Maidstone United Braintree ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.76
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Braintree win · Braintree 2–1 Maidstone United
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): +37.5%
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "f199c1e94218aec96cc2e751fb92f593120b102ace8552efe4fab97dfd098527",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.38,
"away_win_prob": 0.3897,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.456,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2954,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.57,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.39,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.18,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.22,
"home_win_prob": 0.3148,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Winner : Maidstone United and +1.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Maidstone United"
},
"away_xg": 1.38,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Maidstone United",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.1371,
"edge_gap": 0.0747,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.5268,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 39.0,
"draw": 29.5,
"home": 31.5
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.76
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.76,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Maidstone United Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 1.9,
"market_odds": 1.76,
"model_odds": 2.57,
"overround": 7.9,
"prob_edge": -17.9,
"value_pct": -31.5,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 2,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 7,
"away_score_rate": 74.8,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 2,
"home_played": 6,
"home_score_rate": 70.5,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.38,
"home_expected": 1.22,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.6
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Braintree or Draw",
"prob": 61.0
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Braintree or Maidstone United",
"prob": 70.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Maidstone United",
"prob": 68.5
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Braintree or Maidstone United",
"pick_prob": 70.5
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 39.0,
"draw_pct": 29.5,
"home_pct": 31.5,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Maidstone United"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "+1.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 2.1,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 26.0,
"implied_prob": 23.4,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.5,
"odds": 4.27
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Maidstone United",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 52.68,
"draw": 21.71,
"home": 25.61
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-12 14:09:56",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-12 13:45:46",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Braintree",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.61,
"gap_pp": 5.88,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 31.49
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 21.71,
"gap_pp": 7.83,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.54
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 52.68,
"gap_pp": -13.71,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 38.97
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 59.54,
"gap_pp": -11.34,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 40.46,
"gap_pp": 11.34,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 3.62,
"early": 3.62,
"implied_closing_pct": 25.61,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 25.61,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 4.27,
"early": 4.27,
"implied_closing_pct": 21.71,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 21.71,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 1.76,
"early": 1.76,
"implied_closing_pct": 52.68,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 52.68,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.57,
"early": 1.57,
"implied_closing_pct": 59.54,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 59.54,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.31,
"early": 2.31,
"implied_closing_pct": 40.46,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 40.46,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 11.3,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 0.0,
"ev": 0.0,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 8.0,
"market_prob": 0.125,
"market_prob_pct": 12.5,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.6
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.22,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1526,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.215,
"edge": 0.0155,
"edge_pp": 1.6,
"market_prob": 0.4163,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2098,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": -0.0213,
"ev": -0.1115,
"implied_prob": 0.5837,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5623
},
"p_final": 0.4318,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1474,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0435,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1526,
"best_odd": 2.215,
"edge": 0.0155,
"ev": -0.0435,
"implied_prob": 0.4163,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4318
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2192,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -21.9,
"text": "-21.9%"
},
"ev_under": 0.1966,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 19.7,
"text": "+19.7%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1966,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10326.94,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1693,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0067,
"edge_pp": 0.7,
"market_prob": 0.4164,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1693,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0067,
"ev": -0.0691,
"implied_prob": 0.4164,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4231
},
"p_final": 0.4231,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0032,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0691,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2328,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0092,
"ev": -0.0983,
"implied_prob": 0.5836,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5743
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.026,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.6,
"text": "+2.6%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1187,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -11.9,
"text": "-11.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.026,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"sort_key": 5220.8,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 1.76,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1879,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -18.8,
"text": "-18.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5268,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0139,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.4,
"text": "-1.4%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.7,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3141,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-31.4%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Maidstone United",
"sort_key": 1796.525,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 13.7,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -13.71,
"hero_label": "Maidstone United",
"market_prob_pct": 52.7,
"market_team": "Maidstone United",
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"model_team": "Maidstone United",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Maidstone United)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Maidstone United)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1966,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2614,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 48,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Maidstone United at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 52.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Maidstone United as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Maidstone United",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Maidstone United \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.44 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +26% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1588354 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.44 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +19.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +19.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "61 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "48 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Maidstone United).",
"Decision strength: 5.6/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +26% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 61,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1879,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.76,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5268,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5681818181818182,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3141,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-31.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "4/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.4444444444444444,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (14 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 4.4,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 61,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 13.71,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 13.71,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.38,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.22,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.38,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.22 \u00b7 Away xG 1.38 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Braintree",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 48,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Maidstone United)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Maidstone United)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1966,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2614,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 48,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Maidstone United at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 52.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Maidstone United as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Maidstone United",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Maidstone United \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.44 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +26% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1588354 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.44 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +19.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +19.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "61 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "48 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Maidstone United).",
"Decision strength: 5.6/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +26% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 61,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1879,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.76,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5268,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5681818181818182,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3141,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-31.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Braintree 1.22 xG vs Maidstone United 1.38 \u2192 Maidstone United 39.0%",
"Market: Maidstone United ~52.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Braintree +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Maidstone United with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 5.87,
"fair_prob": 31.48,
"label": "Braintree",
"market_prob": 25.61,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.83,
"fair_prob": 29.54,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 21.71,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.71,
"fair_prob": 38.97,
"label": "Maidstone United",
"market_prob": 52.68,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.09,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 58.29,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.09,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 41.71,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.79,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 58.19,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.79,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 41.81,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -13.71,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Maidstone United",
"market_prob_pct": 52.68,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Braintree"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Maidstone United\u0027s win probability at 52.7%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 39.0%, a difference of 13.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 13.71,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Maidstone United",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 52.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-13.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -13.7,
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-13.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -13.7,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 61,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Maidstone United \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 48,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Braintree 1.22 xG vs Maidstone United 1.38 \u2192 Maidstone United 39.0%",
"Market: Maidstone United ~52.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Braintree +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Maidstone United with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -13.71,
"hero_label": "Maidstone United",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Maidstone United than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Maidstone United than the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Maidstone United than the current fair estimate."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Maidstone United more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks.",
"The market materially disagrees with the model on Maidstone United (pricing gap 13.7 pp). The market may be pricing squad quality, tournament context, or lineup strength beyond the Elo framework."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 13.71,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 7.5 pp (at 39.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 7.5,
"max_prob_pct": 39.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Maidstone United",
"largest_gap_pp": -13.7,
"lead": "The closing market prices Maidstone United higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 13.7,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 5.87,
"edge_pp": 5.87,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.48,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Braintree",
"market_prob_pct": 25.61,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 7.83,
"edge_pp": 7.83,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 21.71,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -13.71,
"edge_pp": -13.71,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Maidstone United",
"market_prob_pct": 52.68,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Maidstone United than the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Maidstone United (52.7%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Maidstone United, Market \u2192 Maidstone United, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 56.82,
"closing_odds": 1.76,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 56.82,
"entry_odds": 1.76,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/9",
"current_odds": 3.9,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 3.9,
"pick_team": "Braintree",
"steam_score": 13,
"steam_team_name": "Braintree",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 13.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "maidstone-utd",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Maidstone United",
"away_team_id": 1825,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1825.webp",
"away_team_name": "Maidstone United",
"away_team_public_id": "05zsXDkhwhWD0f",
"away_team_slug": "maidstone-utd",
"country_code": "GB-ENG",
"country_display_name": "England",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
"country_id": 49,
"country_name": "England",
"fixture_id": 1588354,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "England",
"home_team_display_name": "Braintree",
"home_team_id": 1831,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1831.webp",
"home_team_name": "Braintree",
"home_team_public_id": "1uEHmNmKkqQUxR",
"home_team_slug": "braintree",
"ht.home_team_slug": "braintree",
"league_country": "England",
"league_country_display": "England",
"league_display_name": "National League - South",
"league_id": 51,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/51.webp",
"league_name": "National League - South",
"league_public_id": "1CLb0HhHXqBxus",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-12 14:00:00",
"public_id": "0RfiTowOFwbSRj",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Braintree",
"venue_name": "Rare Breed Meat Co. Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4766,
"best_odd": 1.76,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0653,
"ev": -0.1879,
"implied_prob": 0.5268,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5268,
"draw": 0.2171,
"home": 0.2561
},
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"p_final": 0.4614
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1765,
"best_odd": 4.27,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0138,
"ev": -0.0139,
"implied_prob": 0.2171,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5268,
"draw": 0.2171,
"home": 0.2561
},
"model_prob": 0.2954,
"p_final": 0.2309
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2735,
"best_odd": 3.62,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0161,
"ev": -0.0147,
"implied_prob": 0.2561,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5268,
"draw": 0.2171,
"home": 0.2561
},
"model_prob": 0.3149,
"p_final": 0.2722
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.76,
"edge": -0.1785,
"ev": -0.3142,
"implied_prob": 0.5682,
"model_prob": 0.3897
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.27,
"edge": 0.0612,
"ev": 0.2614,
"implied_prob": 0.2342,
"model_prob": 0.2954
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.62,
"edge": 0.0387,
"ev": 0.14,
"implied_prob": 0.2762,
"model_prob": 0.3149
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1693,
"alpha_yes": 0.2328,
"best_no_odd": 2.25,
"best_yes_odd": 1.62,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0379,
"edge_yes": -0.0379,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.026,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0691,
"ev_yes": -0.1187,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0983,
"implied_no": 0.4181,
"implied_yes": 0.5819,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1693,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0067,
"ev": -0.0691,
"implied_prob": 0.4164,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4231
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2328,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0092,
"ev": -0.0983,
"implied_prob": 0.5836,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5743
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4231,
"p_final_yes": 0.5743,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2098,
"alpha_under": 0.1526,
"best_over_odd": 1.62,
"best_under_odd": 2.31,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.58,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.215,
"edge_over": -0.1009,
"edge_under": 0.1009,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2192,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1115,
"ev_under": 0.1966,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0435,
"implied_over": 0.5829,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5837,
"implied_under": 0.4171,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4163,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2098,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": -0.0213,
"ev": -0.1115,
"implied_prob": 0.5837,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5623
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1526,
"best_odd": 2.215,
"edge": 0.0155,
"ev": -0.0435,
"implied_prob": 0.4163,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4318
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5623,
"p_final_under": 0.4318,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1966,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2614,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1966,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.6,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.6
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Maidstone United)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1966,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2614,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 48,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Maidstone United at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 52.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Maidstone United as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Maidstone United",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Maidstone United \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.44 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +26% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1588354 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.44 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +19.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +19.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "61 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "48 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Maidstone United).",
"Decision strength: 5.6/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +26% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 61,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1879,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.76,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5268,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5681818181818182,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3141,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-31.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2954,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3897,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.16
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.76,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0653,
"ev": -0.1879,
"implied_prob": 0.5268,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Maidstone United"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1693,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0067,
"market_prob": 0.4164,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1693,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0067,
"ev": -0.0691,
"implied_prob": 0.4164,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4231
},
"p_final": 0.4231,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0691,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2328,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0092,
"ev": -0.0983,
"implied_prob": 0.5836,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5743
}
},
"edge": 0.0379,
"ev": 0.026,
"implied_prob": 0.4181,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1526,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.215,
"edge": 0.0155,
"market_prob": 0.4163,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2098,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": -0.0213,
"ev": -0.1115,
"implied_prob": 0.5837,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5623
},
"p_final": 0.4318,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0435,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1526,
"best_odd": 2.215,
"edge": 0.0155,
"ev": -0.0435,
"implied_prob": 0.4163,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4318
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1009,
"ev": 0.1966,
"implied_prob": 0.4171,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1588354,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1966,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3897,
"draw": 0.2954,
"home": 0.3149
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Maidstone United",
"home": "Braintree"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.071287,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1966,
"implied_prob": 0.4171,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1879,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.76,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5268,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5681818181818182,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3141,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-31.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1588354,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T14:09:59.164452+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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National League - South — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maidstone United | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 |
| 2 | Weston-super-Mare | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 3 | Dagenham & Redbridge | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 4 | Tonbridge Angels | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 5 | Truro City | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Dover | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Dorking Wanderers | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| 8 | Torquay United | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| 9 | Farnham Town | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 10 | Salisbury | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 11 | Folkestone Invicta | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 12 | Billericay Town | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 13 | Chesham United | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 14 | Chelmsford City | 8 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 10 |
| 15 | Horsham | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 10 |
| 16 | Hemel Hempstead Town | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 17 | Maidenhead | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 18 | Braintree | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 19 | AFC Totton | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 20 | Farnborough | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 21 | Hampton & Richmond Borough | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 22 | Ebbsfleet United | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 23 | Slough Town | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 |
| 24 | Walton & Hersham | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tonbridge Angels | 9 | 18 | 9 | +9 | 14 |
| 2 | Dorking Wanderers | 9 | 18 | 13 | +5 | 13 |
| 3 | Maidstone United | 9 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 19 |
| 4 | Weston-super-Mare | 9 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 17 |
| 5 | Chesham United | 9 | 16 | 15 | +1 | 10 |
| 6 | Salisbury | 8 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 12 |
| 7 | Folkestone Invicta | 8 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 12 |
| 8 | Billericay Town | 8 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 12 |
| 9 | Dover | 9 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 14 |
| 10 | Torquay United | 9 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 13 |
| 11 | Truro City | 7 | 11 | 3 | +8 | 14 |
| 12 | Farnham Town | 8 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 13 |
| 13 | Braintree | 7 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 10 |
| 14 | Hampton & Richmond Borough | 9 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 8 |
| 15 | Dagenham & Redbridge | 9 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 16 |
| 16 | Chelmsford City | 8 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 10 |
| 17 | Horsham | 8 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 10 |
| 18 | Slough Town | 8 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 3 |
| 19 | Hemel Hempstead Town | 9 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 10 |
| 20 | Maidenhead | 9 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 10 |
| 21 | AFC Totton | 8 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 10 |
| 22 | Farnborough | 8 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 10 |
| 23 | Walton & Hersham | 8 | 4 | 24 | -20 | 1 |
| 24 | Ebbsfleet United | 3 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 5 |
