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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Lokomotive Leipzig Lokomotive Leipzig ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.9
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Lokomotive Leipzig win · FC Carl Zeiss Jena 1–2 Lokomotive Leipzig
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "2800c2e16d4d7633d55d7e39ff92e3e68c8c573848eaf76be3318291df4b8443",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.31,
"away_win_prob": 0.3564,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.546,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.81,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.88,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.29,
"home_win_prob": 0.347,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : FC Carl Zeiss Jena or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "30%",
"percent_draw": "35%",
"percent_home": "35%",
"winner_name": "FC Carl Zeiss Jena"
},
"away_xg": 1.31,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Lokomotive Leipzig",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.09,
"edge_gap": 0.0087,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.2659,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 35.6,
"draw": 29.7,
"home": 34.7
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 3.44
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 3.44,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Lokomotive Leipzig Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 3.76,
"market_odds": 3.44,
"model_odds": 2.81,
"overround": 9.3,
"prob_edge": 6.5,
"value_pct": 22.4,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 8,
"away_score_rate": 73.0,
"home_clean_sheet": 5,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 8,
"home_score_rate": 72.5,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.31,
"home_expected": 1.29,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.1
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "FC Carl Zeiss Jena or Draw",
"prob": 64.3
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "FC Carl Zeiss Jena or Lokomotive Leipzig",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Lokomotive Leipzig",
"prob": 65.2
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "FC Carl Zeiss Jena or Lokomotive Leipzig",
"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 35.6,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 34.7,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Lokomotive Leipzig"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 2.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 22.5,
"implied_prob": 29.1,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Lokomotive Leipzig Win",
"model_prob": 35.6,
"odds": 3.44
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Lokomotive Leipzig",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 26.59,
"draw": 25.27,
"home": 48.14
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 12:01:39",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 11:32:52",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "FC Carl Zeiss Jena",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 48.14,
"gap_pp": -13.41,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 34.73
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.27,
"gap_pp": 4.41,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.68
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.59,
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 35.59
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 53.97,
"gap_pp": -5.77,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 46.03,
"gap_pp": 5.77,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.9,
"early": 1.9,
"implied_closing_pct": 48.14,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 48.14,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.62,
"early": 3.62,
"implied_closing_pct": 25.27,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 25.27,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.44,
"early": 3.44,
"implied_closing_pct": 26.59,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 26.59,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.74,
"early": 1.74,
"implied_closing_pct": 53.97,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 53.97,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.04,
"early": 2.04,
"implied_closing_pct": 46.03,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 46.03,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -2.8,
"ev": -0.181,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.5,
"market_prob": 0.1538,
"market_prob_pct": 15.4,
"model_prob": 0.126,
"model_prob_pct": 12.6,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.1
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.29,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2066,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.98,
"edge": 0.0113,
"edge_pp": 1.1,
"market_prob": 0.4634,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2272,
"best_odd": 1.71,
"edge": -0.0124,
"ev": -0.1036,
"implied_prob": 0.5366,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5242
},
"p_final": 0.4747,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.5,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0256,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0601,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2066,
"best_odd": 1.98,
"edge": 0.0113,
"ev": -0.0601,
"implied_prob": 0.4634,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4747
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1613,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.1,
"text": "-16.1%"
},
"ev_under": 0.0567,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 5.7,
"text": "+5.7%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0567,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10201.03,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has repriced FC Carl Zeiss Jena, but the model still strongly favours Lokomotive Leipzig.",
"consensus_odds": 3.44,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0049,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.5,
"text": "-0.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2659,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0049,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.5,
"text": "-0.5%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2243,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+22.4%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Lokomotive Leipzig",
"sort_key": 2199.608,
"tier": "pass"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2188,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.09,
"edge": 0.004,
"edge_pp": 0.4,
"market_prob": 0.4367,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2188,
"best_odd": 2.09,
"edge": 0.004,
"ev": -0.079,
"implied_prob": 0.4367,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4407
},
"p_final": 0.4407,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.8,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0491,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.079,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2407,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0044,
"ev": -0.0945,
"implied_prob": 0.5633,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5589
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0354,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.5,
"text": "-3.5%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1008,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -10.1,
"text": "-10.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.0354,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 1791.15,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 13.4,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -13.44,
"hero_label": "FC Carl Zeiss Jena",
"market_prob_pct": 26.6,
"market_team": "FC Carl Zeiss Jena",
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"model_team": "Lokomotive Leipzig",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 13.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.4,
"summary": "The market has repriced FC Carl Zeiss Jena, but the model still strongly favours Lokomotive Leipzig."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 13.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.4,
"summary": "The market has repriced FC Carl Zeiss Jena, but the model still strongly favours Lokomotive Leipzig."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0567,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2244,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 22,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Lokomotive Leipzig at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 26.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Lokomotive Leipzig as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced FC Carl Zeiss Jena, but the model still strongly favours Lokomotive Leipzig.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Lokomotive Leipzig",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Lokomotive Leipzig \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.36 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +22% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1586876 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.36 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "22 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced FC Carl Zeiss Jena, but the model still strongly favours Lokomotive Leipzig.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +22% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced FC Carl Zeiss Jena, but the model still strongly favours Lokomotive Leipzig.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0049,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.5%",
"consensus_odds": 3.44,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2659,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.29069767441860467,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2243,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+22.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "5/5",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (13 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 64,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 13.44,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 13.44,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.31,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.29,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.31,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.29 \u00b7 Away xG 1.31 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "FC Carl Zeiss Jena",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has repriced FC Carl Zeiss Jena, but the model still strongly favours Lokomotive Leipzig.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 13.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.4,
"summary": "The market has repriced FC Carl Zeiss Jena, but the model still strongly favours Lokomotive Leipzig."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 13.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.4,
"summary": "The market has repriced FC Carl Zeiss Jena, but the model still strongly favours Lokomotive Leipzig."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0567,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2244,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 22,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Lokomotive Leipzig at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 26.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Lokomotive Leipzig as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced FC Carl Zeiss Jena, but the model still strongly favours Lokomotive Leipzig.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Lokomotive Leipzig",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Lokomotive Leipzig \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.36 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +22% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1586876 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.36 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "22 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced FC Carl Zeiss Jena, but the model still strongly favours Lokomotive Leipzig.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +22% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced FC Carl Zeiss Jena, but the model still strongly favours Lokomotive Leipzig.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0049,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.5%",
"consensus_odds": 3.44,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2659,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.29069767441860467,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2243,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+22.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has repriced FC Carl Zeiss Jena, but the model still strongly favours Lokomotive Leipzig.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: FC Carl Zeiss Jena 1.29 xG vs Lokomotive Leipzig 1.31 \u2192 Lokomotive Leipzig 35.6%",
"Market: FC Carl Zeiss Jena ~26.6% implied",
"Market Steam: FC Carl Zeiss Jena +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Lokomotive Leipzig with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -13.44,
"fair_prob": 34.7,
"label": "FC Carl Zeiss Jena",
"market_prob": 48.14,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.38,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.27,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.05,
"fair_prob": 35.64,
"label": "Lokomotive Leipzig",
"market_prob": 26.59,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.42,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 53.62,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.42,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 46.38,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.6,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 56.1,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.6,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 43.9,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -13.44,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "FC Carl Zeiss Jena",
"market_prob_pct": 48.14,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "FC Carl Zeiss Jena"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates FC Carl Zeiss Jena\u0027s win probability at 48.1%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 13.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 13.44,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Lokomotive Leipzig",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 26.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+9.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 9.0,
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+9.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 64,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has repriced FC Carl Zeiss Jena, but the model still strongly favours Lokomotive Leipzig. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: FC Carl Zeiss Jena 1.29 xG vs Lokomotive Leipzig 1.31 \u2192 Lokomotive Leipzig 35.6%",
"Market: FC Carl Zeiss Jena ~26.6% implied",
"Market Steam: FC Carl Zeiss Jena +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Lokomotive Leipzig with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -13.44,
"hero_label": "FC Carl Zeiss Jena",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about FC Carl Zeiss Jena than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on FC Carl Zeiss Jena.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about FC Carl Zeiss Jena than the current fair estimate.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on FC Carl Zeiss Jena."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors FC Carl Zeiss Jena more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on FC Carl Zeiss Jena (+0.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (5/5) supports the current market view on FC Carl Zeiss Jena."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 13.44,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.9,
"max_prob_pct": 35.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "FC Carl Zeiss Jena",
"largest_gap_pp": -13.4,
"lead": "The closing market prices FC Carl Zeiss Jena higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 13.4,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -13.44,
"edge_pp": -13.44,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "FC Carl Zeiss Jena",
"market_prob_pct": 48.14,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.38,
"edge_pp": 4.38,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.27,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 9.05,
"edge_pp": 9.05,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Lokomotive Leipzig",
"market_prob_pct": 26.59,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on FC Carl Zeiss Jena.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers FC Carl Zeiss Jena (26.6%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Lokomotive Leipzig, Market \u2192 FC Carl Zeiss Jena, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 52.63,
"closing_odds": 1.9,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 52.63,
"entry_odds": 1.9,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/5",
"current_odds": 1.9,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 1.9,
"pick_team": "FC Carl Zeiss Jena",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_team_name": "FC Carl Zeiss Jena",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 13.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "lokomotive-leipzig",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Lokomotive Leipzig",
"away_team_id": 9355,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/9355.webp",
"away_team_name": "Lokomotive Leipzig",
"away_team_public_id": "4oeHcabDJNowIa",
"away_team_slug": "lokomotive-leipzig",
"country_code": "DE",
"country_display_name": "Germany",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/de.svg",
"country_id": 60,
"country_name": "Germany",
"fixture_id": 1586876,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Germany",
"home_team_display_name": "FC Carl Zeiss Jena",
"home_team_id": 1325,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1325.webp",
"home_team_name": "FC Carl Zeiss Jena",
"home_team_public_id": "50IEqgNqyqzkiY",
"home_team_slug": "fc-carl-zeiss-jena",
"ht.home_team_slug": "fc-carl-zeiss-jena",
"league_country": "Germany",
"league_country_display": "Germany",
"league_display_name": "Regionalliga Nordost",
"league_id": 85,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/85.webp",
"league_name": "Regionalliga Nordost",
"league_public_id": "1WJdi4c2f3zSMM",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-20 12:00:00",
"public_id": "5PG6YuBSXtCnni",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2595,
"best_odd": 3.44,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0234,
"ev": -0.0049,
"implied_prob": 0.2659,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2659,
"draw": 0.2527,
"home": 0.4814
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"p_final": 0.2893
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2802,
"best_odd": 3.62,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0124,
"ev": -0.0406,
"implied_prob": 0.2527,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2659,
"draw": 0.2527,
"home": 0.4814
},
"model_prob": 0.2968,
"p_final": 0.265
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4793,
"best_odd": 1.9,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0643,
"ev": -0.2075,
"implied_prob": 0.4814,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2659,
"draw": 0.2527,
"home": 0.4814
},
"model_prob": 0.3473,
"p_final": 0.4171
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.44,
"edge": 0.0652,
"ev": 0.2244,
"implied_prob": 0.2907,
"model_prob": 0.3559
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.62,
"edge": 0.0205,
"ev": 0.0744,
"implied_prob": 0.2762,
"model_prob": 0.2968
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.9,
"edge": -0.179,
"ev": -0.3402,
"implied_prob": 0.5263,
"model_prob": 0.3473
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2188,
"alpha_yes": 0.2407,
"best_no_odd": 2.12,
"best_yes_odd": 1.65,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.016,
"edge_yes": -0.016,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0354,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.079,
"ev_yes": -0.1008,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0945,
"implied_no": 0.439,
"implied_yes": 0.561,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2188,
"best_odd": 2.09,
"edge": 0.004,
"ev": -0.079,
"implied_prob": 0.4367,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4407
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2407,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0044,
"ev": -0.0945,
"implied_prob": 0.5633,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5589
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.4407,
"p_final_yes": 0.5589,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2272,
"alpha_under": 0.2066,
"best_over_odd": 1.74,
"best_under_odd": 2.04,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.71,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.98,
"edge_over": -0.0542,
"edge_under": 0.0542,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1613,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1036,
"ev_under": 0.0567,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0601,
"implied_over": 0.5362,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5366,
"implied_under": 0.4638,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4634,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2272,
"best_odd": 1.71,
"edge": -0.0124,
"ev": -0.1036,
"implied_prob": 0.5366,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5242
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2066,
"best_odd": 1.98,
"edge": 0.0113,
"ev": -0.0601,
"implied_prob": 0.4634,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4747
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5242,
"p_final_under": 0.4747,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0567,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2244,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0567,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.1
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 13.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.4,
"summary": "The market has repriced FC Carl Zeiss Jena, but the model still strongly favours Lokomotive Leipzig."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0567,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2244,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 22,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Lokomotive Leipzig at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 26.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Lokomotive Leipzig as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced FC Carl Zeiss Jena, but the model still strongly favours Lokomotive Leipzig.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Lokomotive Leipzig",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Lokomotive Leipzig \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.36 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +22% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1586876 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.36 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "22 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced FC Carl Zeiss Jena, but the model still strongly favours Lokomotive Leipzig.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +22% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced FC Carl Zeiss Jena, but the model still strongly favours Lokomotive Leipzig.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0049,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.5%",
"consensus_odds": 3.44,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2659,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.29069767441860467,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2243,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+22.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2968,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3559,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.02
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.44,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0234,
"ev": -0.0049,
"implied_prob": 0.2659,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Lokomotive Leipzig"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2188,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.09,
"edge": 0.004,
"market_prob": 0.4367,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2188,
"best_odd": 2.09,
"edge": 0.004,
"ev": -0.079,
"implied_prob": 0.4367,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4407
},
"p_final": 0.4407,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.079,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2407,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0044,
"ev": -0.0945,
"implied_prob": 0.5633,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5589
}
},
"edge": 0.016,
"ev": -0.0354,
"implied_prob": 0.439,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2066,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.98,
"edge": 0.0113,
"market_prob": 0.4634,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2272,
"best_odd": 1.71,
"edge": -0.0124,
"ev": -0.1036,
"implied_prob": 0.5366,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5242
},
"p_final": 0.4747,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0601,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2066,
"best_odd": 1.98,
"edge": 0.0113,
"ev": -0.0601,
"implied_prob": 0.4634,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4747
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0542,
"ev": 0.0567,
"implied_prob": 0.4638,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1586876,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0567,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3559,
"draw": 0.2968,
"home": 0.3473
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Lokomotive Leipzig",
"home": "FC Carl Zeiss Jena"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.020559,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0567,
"implied_prob": 0.4638,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0049,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.5%",
"consensus_odds": 3.44,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2659,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.29069767441860467,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2243,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+22.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1586876,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T12:01:41.303467+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho FC Carl Zeiss Jena & Lokomotive Leipzig!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Regionalliga Nordost — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 27 |
| 2 | Chemnitzer FC | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 26 |
| 3 | Hallescher FC | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 22 |
| 4 | BFC Dynamo | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 21 |
| 5 | Altglienicke | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 21 |
| 6 | Erzgebirge Aue | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 21 |
| 7 | FC Carl Zeiss Jena | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 19 |
| 8 | Greifswalder FC | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 19 |
| 9 | Lokomotive Leipzig | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| 10 | FSV Zwickau | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 11 | Magdeburg II | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 13 |
| 12 | BFC Preussen | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 10 |
| 13 | SV Babelsberg 03 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 14 | Hertha BSC II | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 15 | BSG Chemie Leipzig | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 6 |
| 16 | RSV Eintracht | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 6 |
| 17 | Tasmania Berlin | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 5 |
| 18 | Luckenwalde | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 3 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt | 11 | 36 | 11 | +25 | 27 |
| 2 | Chemnitzer FC | 11 | 25 | 5 | +20 | 26 |
| 3 | Greifswalder FC | 11 | 23 | 16 | +7 | 19 |
| 4 | Lokomotive Leipzig | 11 | 23 | 23 | 0 | 15 |
| 5 | BFC Dynamo | 11 | 20 | 12 | +8 | 21 |
| 6 | Altglienicke | 11 | 20 | 14 | +6 | 21 |
| 7 | Magdeburg II | 11 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 13 |
| 8 | FC Carl Zeiss Jena | 11 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 19 |
| 9 | Erzgebirge Aue | 10 | 19 | 14 | +5 | 21 |
| 10 | Hallescher FC | 11 | 18 | 9 | +9 | 22 |
| 11 | BFC Preussen | 11 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 10 |
| 12 | RSV Eintracht | 11 | 13 | 29 | -16 | 6 |
| 13 | Tasmania Berlin | 11 | 13 | 36 | -23 | 5 |
| 14 | FSV Zwickau | 10 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 14 |
| 15 | SV Babelsberg 03 | 10 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 9 |
| 16 | BSG Chemie Leipzig | 10 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 6 |
| 17 | Hertha BSC II | 10 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 8 |
| 18 | Luckenwalde | 10 | 7 | 25 | -18 | 3 |
