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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (4 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Erokspor Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 2-2 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.76
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · Bursaspor 2–2 Erokspor
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "b3af958ee3351459acdc104d0ceb4b7515114df2e51bf4b66b1e1f2e52a40c26",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.41,
"away_win_prob": 0.4042,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.458,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.542,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2944,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.47,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.4,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.32,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.19,
"home_win_prob": 0.3014,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : Bursaspor or draw and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Bursaspor"
},
"away_xg": 1.41,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Erokspor",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.1765,
"edge_gap": 0.1036,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.2283,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 40.5,
"draw": 29.4,
"home": 30.1
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 4.16
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 4.16,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Erokspor Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 4.38,
"market_odds": 4.16,
"model_odds": 2.47,
"overround": 5.3,
"prob_edge": 16.4,
"value_pct": 68.4,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 2,
"away_failed_to_score": 3,
"away_played": 5,
"away_score_rate": 75.6,
"home_clean_sheet": 3,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 5,
"home_score_rate": 69.6,
"no_prob": 45.8,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.2,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 54.2
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.41,
"home_expected": 1.19,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 7.4
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Bursaspor or Draw",
"prob": 59.5
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Bursaspor or Erokspor",
"prob": 70.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Erokspor",
"prob": 69.8
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Bursaspor or Erokspor",
"pick_prob": 70.5
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 40.4,
"draw_pct": 29.4,
"home_pct": 30.1,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Erokspor"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.4,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 2.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 68.4,
"implied_prob": 24.0,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Erokspor Win",
"model_prob": 40.5,
"odds": 4.16
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Erokspor",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 22.83,
"draw": 23.22,
"home": 53.96
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-13 17:00:56",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-13 16:31:49",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Bursaspor",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 53.96,
"gap_pp": -23.84,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 30.12
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 23.22,
"gap_pp": 6.19,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.41
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 22.83,
"gap_pp": 17.65,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 40.48
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 53.0,
"gap_pp": -4.8,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 47.0,
"gap_pp": 4.8,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.76,
"early": 1.76,
"implied_closing_pct": 53.96,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 53.96,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 4.09,
"early": 4.09,
"implied_closing_pct": 23.22,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 23.22,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 4.16,
"early": 4.16,
"implied_closing_pct": 22.83,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 22.83,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.8,
"early": 1.8,
"implied_closing_pct": 53.0,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 53.0,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.03,
"early": 2.03,
"implied_closing_pct": 47.0,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 47.0,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 17.6,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -0.8,
"ev": -0.0625,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.5,
"market_prob": 0.1333,
"market_prob_pct": 13.3,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 7.4
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.19,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"authority_action": "wait",
"authority_note": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"consensus_odds": 4.16,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.0576,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 5.8,
"text": "+5.8%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2283,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0576,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 5.8,
"text": "+5.8%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "+17.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.684,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+68.4%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Erokspor",
"sort_key": 10201.84,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2085,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.98,
"edge": 0.0102,
"edge_pp": 1.0,
"market_prob": 0.4692,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2294,
"best_odd": 1.75,
"edge": -0.0112,
"ev": -0.0906,
"implied_prob": 0.5308,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5196
},
"p_final": 0.4794,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0256,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0509,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2085,
"best_odd": 1.98,
"edge": 0.0102,
"ev": -0.0509,
"implied_prob": 0.4692,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4794
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1276,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -12.8,
"text": "-12.8%"
},
"ev_under": 0.0515,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 5.1,
"text": "+5.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0515,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10046.35,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2236,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0009,
"edge_pp": 0.1,
"market_prob": 0.4538,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.458,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2236,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0009,
"ev": -0.0723,
"implied_prob": 0.4538,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"p_final": 0.4548
},
"p_final": 0.4548,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0657,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0723,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2459,
"best_odd": 1.695,
"edge": -0.001,
"ev": -0.076,
"implied_prob": 0.5462,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"p_final": 0.5452
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0611,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -6.1,
"text": "-6.1%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0623,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -6.2,
"text": "-6.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.0611,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 45.8,
"sort_key": 1784.725,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.2
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -3.8%",
"alert_team": "Erokspor",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 23.8,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -23.82,
"hero_label": "Bursaspor",
"market_prob_pct": 22.8,
"market_team": "Bursaspor",
"model_prob_pct": 40.4,
"model_team": "Erokspor",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 36,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 23.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 23.8,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Erokspor), but pricing still diverges by 23.8 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 23.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 23.8,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Erokspor), but pricing still diverges by 23.8 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0576,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6839,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 39,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Erokspor at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 22.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Erokspor as the value side (40.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 17.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Erokspor",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Erokspor \u00b7 decimal odds ~4.16 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +68% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1585751 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22484.16 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "39 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Erokspor), but pricing still diverges by 23.8 pp.",
"Decision strength: 4.6/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +68% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0576,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.8%",
"consensus_odds": 4.16,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2283,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "+17.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.24038461538461536,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.684,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+68.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.22
}
}
},
"bet_status": "wait",
"books_breadth_display": "5/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5555555555555556,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (24 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 13.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.6,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 60,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 23.82,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 23.82,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.41,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.19,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.41,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.19 \u00b7 Away xG 1.41 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.8,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -3.8%",
"steam_team": "Erokspor",
"suppress_execution": true,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 12,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 12,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market favour the same side (Erokspor), but pricing still diverges by 23.8 pp.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 23.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 23.8,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Erokspor), but pricing still diverges by 23.8 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 23.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 23.8,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Erokspor), but pricing still diverges by 23.8 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0576,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6839,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 39,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Erokspor at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 22.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Erokspor as the value side (40.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 17.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Erokspor",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Erokspor \u00b7 decimal odds ~4.16 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +68% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1585751 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22484.16 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "39 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Erokspor), but pricing still diverges by 23.8 pp.",
"Decision strength: 4.6/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +68% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0576,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.8%",
"consensus_odds": 4.16,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2283,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "+17.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.24038461538461536,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.684,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+68.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.22
}
}
},
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Bursaspor 1.19 xG vs Erokspor 1.41 \u2192 Erokspor 40.4%",
"Market: Bursaspor ~22.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Erokspor \u2193 -3.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Erokspor, but market pricing diverges by 24 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -23.82,
"fair_prob": 30.14,
"label": "Bursaspor",
"market_prob": 53.96,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.22,
"fair_prob": 29.44,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.22,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 17.59,
"fair_prob": 40.42,
"label": "Erokspor",
"market_prob": 22.83,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.77,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 52.97,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.77,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 47.03,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.18,
"fair_prob": 54.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 54.38,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.18,
"fair_prob": 45.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 45.62,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -23.82,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.14,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Bursaspor",
"market_prob_pct": 53.96,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Erokspor"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Bursaspor\u0027s win probability at 54.0%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 30.1%, a difference of 23.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 23.82,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Erokspor",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 22.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+17.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 17.6,
"model_prob_pct": 40.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+17.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 17.6,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 60,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Erokspor \u2014 market direction supports the model, but pricing still diverges (+17.6 pp).",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 12,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 12,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Bursaspor 1.19 xG vs Erokspor 1.41 \u2192 Erokspor 40.4%",
"Market: Bursaspor ~22.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Erokspor \u2193 -3.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Erokspor, but market pricing diverges by 24 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -23.82,
"hero_label": "Bursaspor",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Erokspor odds shortened \u2193 -3.8%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 23.82,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 10.3 pp (at 40.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 10.3,
"max_prob_pct": 40.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "extreme",
"largest_gap_label": "Bursaspor",
"largest_gap_pp": -23.8,
"lead": "The closing market prices Bursaspor higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "extreme",
"max_gap_pp": 23.8,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -23.82,
"edge_pp": -23.82,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.14,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Bursaspor",
"market_prob_pct": 53.96,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.22,
"edge_pp": 6.22,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.44,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.22,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 17.59,
"edge_pp": 17.59,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.42,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Erokspor",
"market_prob_pct": 22.83,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Bursaspor (22.8%).",
"Erokspor has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -3.8%, 5/9).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Erokspor, Market \u2192 Bursaspor, Recent sharp money \u2192 Erokspor.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 56.82,
"closing_odds": 1.76,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 56.82,
"entry_odds": 1.76,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.0
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "5/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.33,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 3.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 62h 1m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Betfair led repricing on Erokspor (3.8%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.8,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.50",
"4.33",
"4.16"
],
"display": "4.50 \u2192 3.80 \u2192 4.33",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 62h 1m",
"pick_team": "Erokspor",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.50"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.80"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.33"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.5,
4.16,
4.33
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,9.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "4.16"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.50"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.33"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.5,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Erokspor",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.33,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.8%",
"open_odds": 4.5,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Erokspor",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 36,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/9",
"current_odds": 4.33,
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.8%",
"open_odds": 4.5,
"pick_team": "Erokspor",
"steam_score": 36,
"steam_team_name": "Erokspor",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 23.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "erokspor",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Erokspor",
"away_team_id": 7402,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/7402.webp",
"away_team_name": "Erokspor",
"away_team_name_canonical": "Erokspor",
"away_team_public_id": "4HTgR25xTK4rxN",
"away_team_slug": "erokspor",
"country_code": "TR",
"country_display_name": "Turkey",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/tr.svg",
"country_id": 157,
"country_name": "Turkey",
"fixture_id": 1585751,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Turkey",
"home_team_display_name": "Bursaspor",
"home_team_id": 1003,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1003.webp",
"home_team_name": "Bursaspor",
"home_team_public_id": "2Yj93vS7lFUWSh",
"home_team_slug": "bursaspor",
"ht.home_team_slug": "bursaspor",
"league_country": "Turkey",
"league_country_display": "Turkey",
"league_display_name": "1. Lig Th\u1ed5 Nh\u0129 K\u1ef3",
"league_id": 204,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/204.webp",
"league_name": "1. Lig Th\u1ed5 Nh\u0129 K\u1ef3",
"league_public_id": "23W8qlNU2zpmgH",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-13 17:00:00",
"public_id": "0FcHXDox9Bt1ma",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Bursa",
"venue_name": "Timsah Park"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.147,
"best_odd": 4.16,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.026,
"ev": 0.0576,
"implied_prob": 0.2283,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2283,
"draw": 0.2322,
"home": 0.5396
},
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"p_final": 0.2542
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1814,
"best_odd": 4.09,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0112,
"ev": -0.0045,
"implied_prob": 0.2322,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2283,
"draw": 0.2322,
"home": 0.5396
},
"model_prob": 0.2941,
"p_final": 0.2434
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3854,
"best_odd": 1.76,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0919,
"ev": -0.2121,
"implied_prob": 0.5396,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2283,
"draw": 0.2322,
"home": 0.5396
},
"model_prob": 0.3012,
"p_final": 0.4477
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.16,
"edge": 0.1644,
"ev": 0.6839,
"implied_prob": 0.2404,
"model_prob": 0.4048
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.09,
"edge": 0.0496,
"ev": 0.2027,
"implied_prob": 0.2445,
"model_prob": 0.2941
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.76,
"edge": -0.267,
"ev": -0.47,
"implied_prob": 0.5682,
"model_prob": 0.3012
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2236,
"alpha_yes": 0.2459,
"best_no_odd": 2.05,
"best_yes_odd": 1.73,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0018,
"edge_yes": -0.0018,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0611,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0723,
"ev_yes": -0.0623,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.076,
"implied_no": 0.4562,
"implied_yes": 0.5438,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2236,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0009,
"ev": -0.0723,
"implied_prob": 0.4538,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"p_final": 0.4548
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2459,
"best_odd": 1.695,
"edge": -0.001,
"ev": -0.076,
"implied_prob": 0.5462,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"p_final": 0.5452
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4548,
"p_final_yes": 0.5452,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2294,
"alpha_under": 0.2085,
"best_over_odd": 1.81,
"best_under_odd": 2.03,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.75,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.98,
"edge_over": -0.0477,
"edge_under": 0.0477,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1276,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0906,
"ev_under": 0.0515,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0509,
"implied_over": 0.5297,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5308,
"implied_under": 0.4703,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4692,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2294,
"best_odd": 1.75,
"edge": -0.0112,
"ev": -0.0906,
"implied_prob": 0.5308,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5196
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2085,
"best_odd": 1.98,
"edge": 0.0102,
"ev": -0.0509,
"implied_prob": 0.4692,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4794
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5196,
"p_final_under": 0.4794,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0576,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6839,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0576,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"guard_capped": true,
"score": 4.6,
"score_before_guard": 5.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 3.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.6
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "B",
"stake_factor": 0.5
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "wait",
"final_decision": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 23.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 23.8,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Erokspor), but pricing still diverges by 23.8 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0576,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6839,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 39,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Erokspor at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 22.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Erokspor as the value side (40.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 17.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Erokspor",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Erokspor \u00b7 decimal odds ~4.16 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +68% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1585751 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22484.16 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "39 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Erokspor), but pricing still diverges by 23.8 pp.",
"Decision strength: 4.6/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +68% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0576,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.8%",
"consensus_odds": 4.16,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2283,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "+17.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.24038461538461536,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.684,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+68.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.22
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.542,
"draw_prob": 0.2941,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4048,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.22
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"guard_active": true,
"guard_level": "extreme",
"guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 4.16,
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.026,
"ev": 0.0576,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.2283,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Erokspor"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2236,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0009,
"market_prob": 0.4538,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.458,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2236,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0009,
"ev": -0.0723,
"implied_prob": 0.4538,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"p_final": 0.4548
},
"p_final": 0.4548,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0723,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2459,
"best_odd": 1.695,
"edge": -0.001,
"ev": -0.076,
"implied_prob": 0.5462,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"p_final": 0.5452
}
},
"edge": 0.0018,
"ev": -0.0611,
"implied_prob": 0.4562,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2085,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.98,
"edge": 0.0102,
"market_prob": 0.4692,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2294,
"best_odd": 1.75,
"edge": -0.0112,
"ev": -0.0906,
"implied_prob": 0.5308,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5196
},
"p_final": 0.4794,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0509,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2085,
"best_odd": 1.98,
"edge": 0.0102,
"ev": -0.0509,
"implied_prob": 0.4692,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4794
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0477,
"ev": 0.0515,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4703,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1585751,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0576,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4048,
"draw": 0.2941,
"home": 0.3012
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0515,
"implied_prob": 0.4703,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0515,
"implied_prob": 0.4703,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Erokspor",
"home": "Bursaspor"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.025648,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0576,
"implied_prob": 0.2283,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Erokspor",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0576,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.8%",
"consensus_odds": 4.16,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2283,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "+17.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.24038461538461536,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.684,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+68.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1585751,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-13T17:00:58.376172+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Bursaspor & Erokspor!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
1. Lig Thổ Nhĩ Kỳ — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kayserispor | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| 2 | Bursaspor | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| 3 | 76 Iğdır Belediyespor | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| 4 | Batman Petrolspor | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| 5 | Sarıyer | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 6 | Keçiörengücü | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 7 | Mardin BB | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Antalyaspor | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 |
| 9 | Fatih Karagümrük | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 10 | Muğlaspor | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 11 |
| 11 | Bandırmaspor | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 10 |
| 12 | Pendikspor | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 10 |
| 13 | Manisa BBSK | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 14 | BB Bodrumspor | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 8 |
| 15 | Sivasspor | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 8 |
| 16 | Ümraniyespor | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 17 | Erokspor | 8 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 5 |
| 18 | İstanbulspor | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 19 | Van BB | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| 20 | Boluspor | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Keçiörengücü | 8 | 17 | 10 | +7 | 13 |
| 2 | Bursaspor | 8 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 19 |
| 3 | Kayserispor | 8 | 15 | 3 | +12 | 19 |
| 4 | Batman Petrolspor | 8 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 16 |
| 5 | Antalyaspor | 8 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 12 |
| 6 | Bandırmaspor | 8 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 10 |
| 7 | 76 Iğdır Belediyespor | 8 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 16 |
| 8 | Fatih Karagümrük | 8 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 12 |
| 9 | Manisa BBSK | 8 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Sarıyer | 8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 14 |
| 11 | Pendikspor | 8 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 10 |
| 12 | Mardin BB | 8 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 12 |
| 13 | Sivasspor | 8 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 8 |
| 14 | Muğlaspor | 8 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 11 |
| 15 | Van BB | 8 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 4 |
| 16 | BB Bodrumspor | 8 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 8 |
| 17 | İstanbulspor | 8 | 7 | 19 | -12 | 5 |
| 18 | Ümraniyespor | 8 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 6 |
| 19 | Erokspor | 8 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 5 |
| 20 | Boluspor | 8 | 3 | 20 | -17 | 1 |
