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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Không ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Altrincham Altrincham ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-0 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.15
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Altrincham win · Altrincham 3–0 AFC Hornchurch
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
B-
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "4a5a7a2bc8f697915360db83b1af88405a59474a90f9bf1bd89a9bb435061599",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.27,
"away_win_prob": 0.3377,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2964,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.96,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.73,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.33,
"home_win_prob": 0.3659,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Altrincham or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Altrincham"
},
"away_xg": 1.27,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Altrincham",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0765,
"edge_gap": 0.0284,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4425,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 33.8,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 36.6
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.15
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.15,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Altrincham Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.26,
"market_odds": 2.15,
"model_odds": 2.73,
"overround": 5.1,
"prob_edge": -9.9,
"value_pct": -21.2,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 3,
"away_failed_to_score": 3,
"away_played": 9,
"away_score_rate": 71.9,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 2,
"home_played": 9,
"home_score_rate": 73.6,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.27,
"home_expected": 1.33,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Altrincham or Draw",
"prob": 66.2
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Altrincham or AFC Hornchurch",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or AFC Hornchurch",
"prob": 63.4
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Altrincham or AFC Hornchurch",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 33.8,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 36.6,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Altrincham"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.2,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.3,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 8.8,
"implied_prob": 31.1,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "AFC Hornchurch Win",
"model_prob": 33.8,
"odds": 3.22
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "AFC Hornchurch",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 29.54,
"draw": 26.21,
"home": 44.25
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 14:03:08",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 13:40:45",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Altrincham",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 44.25,
"gap_pp": -7.65,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 36.6
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.21,
"gap_pp": 3.44,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.65
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 29.54,
"gap_pp": 4.21,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 33.75
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 54.92,
"gap_pp": -6.72,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 45.08,
"gap_pp": 6.72,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.15,
"early": 2.15,
"implied_closing_pct": 44.25,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 44.25,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.63,
"early": 3.63,
"implied_closing_pct": 26.21,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 26.21,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.22,
"early": 3.22,
"implied_closing_pct": 29.54,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 29.54,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.74,
"early": 1.74,
"implied_closing_pct": 54.92,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 54.92,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.12,
"early": 2.12,
"implied_closing_pct": 45.08,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 45.08,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.0,
"ev": -0.075,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.4,
"market_prob": 0.1351,
"market_prob_pct": 13.5,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.33,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2037,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.03,
"edge": 0.0128,
"edge_pp": 1.3,
"market_prob": 0.455,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2241,
"best_odd": 1.695,
"edge": -0.0141,
"ev": -0.1002,
"implied_prob": 0.545,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5309
},
"p_final": 0.4679,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0515,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0502,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2037,
"best_odd": 2.03,
"edge": 0.0128,
"ev": -0.0502,
"implied_prob": 0.455,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4679
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1565,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.7,
"text": "-15.7%"
},
"ev_under": 0.0878,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 8.8,
"text": "+8.8%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0878,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10229.02,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2131,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.185,
"edge": 0.0075,
"edge_pp": 0.8,
"market_prob": 0.4197,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2131,
"best_odd": 2.185,
"edge": 0.0075,
"ev": -0.0666,
"implied_prob": 0.4197,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4272
},
"p_final": 0.4272,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0058,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0666,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2344,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": -0.0083,
"ev": -0.0961,
"implied_prob": 0.5803,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5721
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0237,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.4,
"text": "+2.4%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1008,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -10.1,
"text": "-10.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0237,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 5218.96,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward AFC Hornchurch, but the model still strongly favours Altrincham.",
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1142,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -11.4,
"text": "-11.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4425,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0106,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.1,
"text": "-1.1%"
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.7,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2131,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-21.3%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Altrincham",
"sort_key": 1797.35,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "7/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "7/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -9.1%",
"alert_team": "AFC Hornchurch",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 7.7,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -7.66,
"hero_label": "Altrincham",
"market_prob_pct": 44.2,
"market_team": "Altrincham",
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"model_team": "Altrincham",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 64,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.7,
"summary": "The market has moved toward AFC Hornchurch, but the model still strongly favours Altrincham."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.7,
"summary": "The market has moved toward AFC Hornchurch, but the model still strongly favours Altrincham."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0878,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Altrincham at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Altrincham as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward AFC Hornchurch, but the model still strongly favours Altrincham.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Altrincham",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward AFC Hornchurch, but the model still strongly favours Altrincham.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward AFC Hornchurch, but the model still strongly favours Altrincham.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1142,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4425,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.46511627906976744,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2131,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-21.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "7/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.875,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.8,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 77,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 7.66,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.66,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.27,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.33,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.33,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.33 \u00b7 Away xG 1.27 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.1,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -9.1%",
"steam_team": "AFC Hornchurch",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward AFC Hornchurch, but the model still strongly favours Altrincham.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.7,
"summary": "The market has moved toward AFC Hornchurch, but the model still strongly favours Altrincham."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.7,
"summary": "The market has moved toward AFC Hornchurch, but the model still strongly favours Altrincham."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0878,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Altrincham at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Altrincham as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward AFC Hornchurch, but the model still strongly favours Altrincham.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Altrincham",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward AFC Hornchurch, but the model still strongly favours Altrincham.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward AFC Hornchurch, but the model still strongly favours Altrincham.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1142,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4425,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.46511627906976744,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2131,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-21.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward AFC Hornchurch, but the model still strongly favours Altrincham.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Altrincham 1.33 xG vs AFC Hornchurch 1.27 \u2192 Altrincham 36.6%",
"Market: Altrincham ~44.2% implied",
"Market Steam: AFC Hornchurch \u2193 -9.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Altrincham, but sharp money moved toward AFC Hornchurch.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -7.66,
"fair_prob": 36.59,
"label": "Altrincham",
"market_prob": 44.25,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.43,
"fair_prob": 29.64,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.21,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.23,
"fair_prob": 33.77,
"label": "AFC Hornchurch",
"market_prob": 29.54,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.32,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 54.52,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.32,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 45.48,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.38,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 57.88,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.38,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 42.12,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -7.66,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Altrincham",
"market_prob_pct": 44.25,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "AFC Hornchurch"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Altrincham\u0027s win probability at 44.2%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 36.6%, a difference of 7.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 7.66,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Altrincham",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 44.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-7.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -7.6,
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-7.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -7.6,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 77,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward AFC Hornchurch, but the model still strongly favours Altrincham. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Altrincham 1.33 xG vs AFC Hornchurch 1.27 \u2192 Altrincham 36.6%",
"Market: Altrincham ~44.2% implied",
"Market Steam: AFC Hornchurch \u2193 -9.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Altrincham, but sharp money moved toward AFC Hornchurch.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -7.66,
"hero_label": "Altrincham",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "AFC Hornchurch odds shortened \u2193 -9.1%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on AFC Hornchurch, with odds shortening by 9.1%.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Altrincham. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Buying interest on AFC Hornchurch \u2014 odds shortened by 9.1%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Altrincham. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on AFC Hornchurch, with odds shortening by 9.1%.",
"Buying interest on AFC Hornchurch \u2014 odds shortened by 9.1%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Altrincham above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, AFC Hornchurch has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 9.1%.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/8) supports the current market view on AFC Hornchurch."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 7.66,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.8,
"max_prob_pct": 36.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Altrincham",
"largest_gap_pp": -7.7,
"lead": "The closing market prices Altrincham higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.7,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -7.66,
"edge_pp": -7.66,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Altrincham",
"market_prob_pct": 44.25,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.43,
"edge_pp": 3.43,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.21,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.23,
"edge_pp": 4.23,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "AFC Hornchurch",
"market_prob_pct": 29.54,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on AFC Hornchurch \u2014 odds shortened by 9.1%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Altrincham (44.2%).",
"However, AFC Hornchurch has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -9.1%, 7/8).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Altrincham, Market \u2192 Altrincham, Recent sharp money \u2192 AFC Hornchurch.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 46.51,
"closing_odds": 2.15,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 46.51,
"entry_odds": 2.15,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -12.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -9.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -9.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -7.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -7.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -6.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -6.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.1
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "7/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.0,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -9.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 9.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 127h 3m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on AFC Hornchurch (9.1%, 7/8) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.30",
"3.15",
"3.00"
],
"display": "3.31 \u2192 2.88 \u2192 3.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 127h 3m",
"pick_team": "AFC Hornchurch",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.31"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.88"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.3,
3.22,
3.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,4.8 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.3,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: AFC Hornchurch \u2193 -9.1% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "AFC Hornchurch",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: AFC Hornchurch \u2193 -9.1% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.0,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -9.1%",
"open_odds": 3.3,
"summary": "Market moved toward AFC Hornchurch while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "AFC Hornchurch",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 64,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/8",
"current_odds": 3.0,
"move_display": "\u2193 -9.1%",
"open_odds": 3.3,
"pick_team": "AFC Hornchurch",
"steam_score": 64,
"steam_team_name": "AFC Hornchurch",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 7.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "afc-hornchurch",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "AFC Hornchurch",
"away_team_id": 7690,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/7690.webp",
"away_team_name": "AFC Hornchurch",
"away_team_public_id": "5dA7OPzBqZoPa0",
"away_team_slug": "afc-hornchurch",
"country_code": "GB-ENG",
"country_display_name": "England",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
"country_id": 49,
"country_name": "England",
"fixture_id": 1585246,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "England",
"home_team_display_name": "Altrincham",
"home_team_id": 4700,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/4700.webp",
"home_team_name": "Altrincham",
"home_team_public_id": "4XWvmpcqNqZdqc",
"home_team_slug": "altrincham",
"ht.home_team_slug": "altrincham",
"league_country": "England",
"league_country_display": "England",
"league_display_name": "National League",
"league_id": 43,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/43.webp",
"league_name": "National League",
"league_public_id": "0QUTIt5OMsEkqf",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 14:00:00",
"public_id": "5io5A6BskujA7c",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Altrincham",
"venue_name": "Moss Lane"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2811,
"best_odd": 3.22,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0118,
"ev": -0.0106,
"implied_prob": 0.2954,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2954,
"draw": 0.2621,
"home": 0.4425
},
"model_prob": 0.3375,
"p_final": 0.3073
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2845,
"best_odd": 3.63,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0098,
"ev": -0.0131,
"implied_prob": 0.2621,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2954,
"draw": 0.2621,
"home": 0.4425
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.2719
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3984,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0305,
"ev": -0.1142,
"implied_prob": 0.4425,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2954,
"draw": 0.2621,
"home": 0.4425
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"p_final": 0.412
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.22,
"edge": 0.027,
"ev": 0.0869,
"implied_prob": 0.3106,
"model_prob": 0.3375
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.63,
"edge": 0.021,
"ev": 0.0762,
"implied_prob": 0.2755,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": -0.0991,
"ev": -0.2131,
"implied_prob": 0.4651,
"model_prob": 0.366
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2131,
"alpha_yes": 0.2344,
"best_no_odd": 2.25,
"best_yes_odd": 1.65,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0338,
"edge_yes": -0.0338,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0237,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0666,
"ev_yes": -0.1008,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0961,
"implied_no": 0.4212,
"implied_yes": 0.5788,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2131,
"best_odd": 2.185,
"edge": 0.0075,
"ev": -0.0666,
"implied_prob": 0.4197,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4272
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2344,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": -0.0083,
"ev": -0.0961,
"implied_prob": 0.5803,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5721
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4272,
"p_final_yes": 0.5721,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2241,
"alpha_under": 0.2037,
"best_over_odd": 1.75,
"best_under_odd": 2.1,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.695,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.03,
"edge_over": -0.0632,
"edge_under": 0.0632,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1565,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1002,
"ev_under": 0.0878,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0502,
"implied_over": 0.5452,
"implied_over_mf": 0.545,
"implied_under": 0.4548,
"implied_under_mf": 0.455,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2241,
"best_odd": 1.695,
"edge": -0.0141,
"ev": -0.1002,
"implied_prob": 0.545,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5309
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2037,
"best_odd": 2.03,
"edge": 0.0128,
"ev": -0.0502,
"implied_prob": 0.455,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4679
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5309,
"p_final_under": 0.4679,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0878,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0878,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.1
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.7,
"summary": "The market has moved toward AFC Hornchurch, but the model still strongly favours Altrincham."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0878,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Altrincham at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Altrincham as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward AFC Hornchurch, but the model still strongly favours Altrincham.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Altrincham",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward AFC Hornchurch, but the model still strongly favours Altrincham.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward AFC Hornchurch, but the model still strongly favours Altrincham.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1142,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4425,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.46511627906976744,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2131,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-21.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.366,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0305,
"ev": -0.1142,
"implied_prob": 0.4425,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.366,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Altrincham"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2131,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.185,
"edge": 0.0075,
"market_prob": 0.4197,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2131,
"best_odd": 2.185,
"edge": 0.0075,
"ev": -0.0666,
"implied_prob": 0.4197,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4272
},
"p_final": 0.4272,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0666,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2344,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": -0.0083,
"ev": -0.0961,
"implied_prob": 0.5803,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5721
}
},
"edge": 0.0338,
"ev": 0.0237,
"implied_prob": 0.4212,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2037,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.03,
"edge": 0.0128,
"market_prob": 0.455,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2241,
"best_odd": 1.695,
"edge": -0.0141,
"ev": -0.1002,
"implied_prob": 0.545,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5309
},
"p_final": 0.4679,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0502,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2037,
"best_odd": 2.03,
"edge": 0.0128,
"ev": -0.0502,
"implied_prob": 0.455,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4679
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0632,
"ev": 0.0878,
"implied_prob": 0.4548,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1585246,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0878,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3375,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.366
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "AFC Hornchurch",
"home": "Altrincham"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.031836,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0878,
"implied_prob": 0.4548,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1142,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4425,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.46511627906976744,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2131,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-21.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1585246,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T14:03:11.580204+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Altrincham & AFC Hornchurch!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
National League — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 23 |
| 2 | Southend | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20 |
| 3 | Kidderminster Harriers | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 4 | AFC Fylde | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 5 | Harrogate Town | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | Sutton United | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 7 | Yeovil Town | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 8 | Aldershot Town | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 9 | AFC Hornchurch | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 15 |
| 10 | Altrincham | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 15 |
| 11 | Worthing | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 12 | Eastleigh | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 13 | FC Halifax Town | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 14 | Forest Green Rovers | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 15 | Boston United | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 16 | Carlisle | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 17 | Barrow | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 18 | Woking | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 19 | Hartlepool United | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 20 | Wealdstone | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 21 | Tamworth | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 22 | Scunthorpe | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 23 | Solihull Moors | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 |
| 24 | Gateshead | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 9 | 23 | 11 | +12 | 23 |
| 2 | Southend | 9 | 23 | 12 | +11 | 20 |
| 3 | AFC Fylde | 9 | 20 | 13 | +7 | 17 |
| 4 | Harrogate Town | 9 | 20 | 16 | +4 | 16 |
| 5 | Yeovil Town | 9 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 15 |
| 6 | Worthing | 9 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 14 |
| 7 | Carlisle | 9 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 10 |
| 8 | Tamworth | 9 | 16 | 23 | -7 | 8 |
| 9 | FC Halifax Town | 9 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 13 |
| 10 | Kidderminster Harriers | 9 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 18 |
| 11 | Boston United | 9 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 11 |
| 12 | Forest Green Rovers | 9 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 13 |
| 13 | Altrincham | 9 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 15 |
| 14 | Eastleigh | 9 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 14 |
| 15 | AFC Hornchurch | 9 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 15 |
| 16 | Barrow | 9 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 9 |
| 17 | Wealdstone | 9 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 8 |
| 18 | Scunthorpe | 9 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 7 |
| 19 | Aldershot Town | 9 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 15 |
| 20 | Sutton United | 9 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 16 |
| 21 | Woking | 9 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 9 |
| 22 | Solihull Moors | 9 | 9 | 23 | -14 | 4 |
| 23 | Hartlepool United | 9 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 9 |
| 24 | Gateshead | 9 | 6 | 20 | -14 | 4 |
