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Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (1 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Không ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Alemannia Aachen Alemannia Aachen ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 1-0 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.88
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Alemannia Aachen win · Alemannia Aachen 1–0 Fortuna Düsseldorf
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
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"facts": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.2411,
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"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.458,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.28,
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"fair_odds_away": 4.15,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.57,
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"over_25_prob": 0.502,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under_25_prob": 0.499
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"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Alemannia Aachen or draw",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Alemannia Aachen",
"percent_away": "30%",
"percent_draw": "35%",
"percent_home": "35%",
"winner_name": "Alemannia Aachen"
},
"away_xg": 1.08,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Alemannia Aachen",
"confidence": 47.9,
"main_pick_meta": {
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"selection": "home",
"selection_name": "Alemannia Aachen"
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"market_comparison": [
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],
"risk_color": "#f44336",
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"stacked_market": null,
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"betting_markets": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 2,
"away_played": 5,
"away_score_rate": 66.0,
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"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 5,
"home_score_rate": 79.8,
"no_prob": 45.8,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.2,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.2
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.08,
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"scores": [
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{
"away": 0,
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{
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{
"away": 0,
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{
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],
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"double_chance": {
"options": [
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},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Alemannia Aachen or Fortuna D\u00fcsseldorf",
"prob": 72.0
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Fortuna D\u00fcsseldorf",
"prob": 52.1
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Alemannia Aachen or Draw",
"pick_prob": 75.9
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 24.1,
"draw_pct": 28.0,
"home_pct": 47.9,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Alemannia Aachen"
},
"over_under": {
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"avg_total": 2.68,
"away_avg_scored": 0.8,
"confidence": "low",
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"pick": "Under 2.5",
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"total_expected": 2.68,
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},
"prob_source": "poisson",
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"edge": 9.7,
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"odds": 2.29
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Fortuna D\u00fcsseldorf",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
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"draw": 25.38,
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"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 11:57:16",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 11:34:32",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Alemannia Aachen",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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"closing_implied_pct": 41.57,
"gap_pp": 6.3,
"kind": "1x2_h",
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},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.38,
"gap_pp": 2.64,
"kind": "1x2_d",
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},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 33.05,
"gap_pp": -8.94,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 24.11
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 59.24,
"gap_pp": -9.14,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 50.1
},
{
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],
"movement": [
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"closing": 3.75,
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"closing": 1.61,
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{
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"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
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},
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"lean_card": {
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"ev": -0.0914,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
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"market_prob": 0.1299,
"market_prob_pct": 13.0,
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"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
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},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
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},
{
"label": "1-0",
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{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 8.8
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{
"label": "0-1",
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}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.6,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
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"available": true,
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"edge": 0.0212,
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"edge": -0.0292,
"ev": -0.1252,
"implied_prob": 0.5882,
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},
"p_final": 0.4331,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
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"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1934,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -19.3,
"text": "-19.3%"
},
"ev_under": 0.1677,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 16.8,
"text": "+16.8%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 50.1,
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"tier": "best",
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"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2481,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.41,
"edge": 0.0188,
"edge_pp": 1.9,
"market_prob": 0.3821,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.458,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2481,
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"edge": 0.0188,
"ev": -0.0338,
"implied_prob": 0.3821,
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"p_final": 0.4009,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1038,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0338,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
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"edge": -0.0259,
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"implied_prob": 0.6179,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"p_final": 0.592
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.145,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 14.5,
"text": "+14.5%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.187,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -18.7,
"text": "-18.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.145,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 45.8,
"sort_key": 10130.5,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.2
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.29,
"decision": "small_edge",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0107,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.1,
"text": "+1.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4157,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0107,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.1,
"text": "+1.1%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4787,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0962,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.6%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Alemannia Aachen",
"sort_key": 5208.56,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 815.4,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 11.8
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 8.9,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.94,
"hero_label": "Fortuna D\u00fcsseldorf",
"market_prob_pct": 41.6,
"market_team": "Alemannia Aachen",
"model_prob_pct": 47.9,
"model_team": "Alemannia Aachen",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Alemannia Aachen)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Alemannia Aachen)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1677,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1677,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.6,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 80,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Alemannia Aachen at 47.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Alemannia Aachen as the value side (47.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Alemannia Aachen",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +16.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +16.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+16.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Alemannia Aachen).",
"Decision strength: 8.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0107,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.29,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4157,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4787,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4366812227074236,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0962,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 18.5,
"reasons": [
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],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.52
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "2/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.2222222222222222,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 2.2,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 77,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 8.94,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.94,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.08,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 19.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.6,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.6,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.60 \u00b7 Away xG 1.08 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +19%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Alemannia Aachen",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 80,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 68,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 47,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 68,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Alemannia Aachen).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Alemannia Aachen)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Alemannia Aachen)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1677,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1677,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.6,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 80,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Alemannia Aachen at 47.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Alemannia Aachen as the value side (47.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Alemannia Aachen",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +16.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +16.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+16.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Alemannia Aachen).",
"Decision strength: 8.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0107,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.29,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4157,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4787,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4366812227074236,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0962,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 18.5,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.52"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.52
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Alemannia Aachen 1.60 xG vs Fortuna D\u00fcsseldorf 1.08 \u2192 Alemannia Aachen 47.9%",
"Market: Alemannia Aachen ~41.6% implied",
"Market Steam: Alemannia Aachen +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Alemannia Aachen projects stronger on expected goals (+0.52 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 6.32,
"fair_prob": 47.89,
"label": "Alemannia Aachen",
"market_prob": 41.57,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.62,
"fair_prob": 28.0,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.38,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.94,
"fair_prob": 24.11,
"label": "Fortuna D\u00fcsseldorf",
"market_prob": 33.05,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.62,
"fair_prob": 50.1,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 58.72,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.62,
"fair_prob": 49.9,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 41.28,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.77,
"fair_prob": 54.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 61.97,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.77,
"fair_prob": 45.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 38.03,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -8.94,
"fair_prob_pct": 24.11,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Fortuna D\u00fcsseldorf",
"market_prob_pct": 33.05,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Alemannia Aachen"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Fortuna D\u00fcsseldorf\u0027s win probability at 33.0%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 24.1%, a difference of 8.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 8.94,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Alemannia Aachen",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 41.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+6.3 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 6.3,
"model_prob_pct": 47.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+6.3 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 6.3,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 77,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Alemannia Aachen \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 80,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 68,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 47,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 68,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Alemannia Aachen 1.60 xG vs Fortuna D\u00fcsseldorf 1.08 \u2192 Alemannia Aachen 47.9%",
"Market: Alemannia Aachen ~41.6% implied",
"Market Steam: Alemannia Aachen +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Alemannia Aachen projects stronger on expected goals (+0.52 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.94,
"hero_label": "Fortuna D\u00fcsseldorf",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Fortuna D\u00fcsseldorf. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "The market shows a modest preference for Fortuna D\u00fcsseldorf relative to the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Fortuna D\u00fcsseldorf. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Fortuna D\u00fcsseldorf above the current fair estimate.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 8.94,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 19.9 pp (at 47.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 19.9,
"max_prob_pct": 47.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Fortuna D\u00fcsseldorf",
"largest_gap_pp": -8.9,
"lead": "The closing market prices Fortuna D\u00fcsseldorf higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.9,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 6.32,
"edge_pp": 6.32,
"fair_prob_pct": 47.89,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Alemannia Aachen",
"market_prob_pct": 41.57,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.62,
"edge_pp": 2.62,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.0,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.38,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -8.94,
"edge_pp": -8.94,
"fair_prob_pct": 24.11,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Fortuna D\u00fcsseldorf",
"market_prob_pct": 33.05,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market shows a modest preference for Fortuna D\u00fcsseldorf relative to the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Alemannia Aachen (41.6%).",
"Alemannia Aachen \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 34.72,
"closing_odds": 2.88,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 34.72,
"entry_odds": 2.88,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/9",
"current_odds": 2.25,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.25,
"pick_team": "Alemannia Aachen",
"steam_score": 3,
"steam_team_name": "Alemannia Aachen",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 8.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "fortuna-dusseldorf",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Fortuna D\u00fcsseldorf",
"away_team_id": 158,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/158.webp",
"away_team_name": "Fortuna D\u00fcsseldorf",
"away_team_public_id": "2urBe8OsvYybJX",
"away_team_slug": "fortuna-dusseldorf",
"country_code": "DE",
"country_display_name": "Germany",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/de.svg",
"country_id": 60,
"country_name": "Germany",
"fixture_id": 1584004,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Germany",
"home_team_display_name": "Alemannia Aachen",
"home_team_id": 4259,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/4259.webp",
"home_team_name": "Alemannia Aachen",
"home_team_public_id": "3M3VXhNE31hWIK",
"home_team_slug": "alemannia-aachen",
"ht.home_team_slug": "alemannia-aachen",
"league_country": "Germany",
"league_country_display": "Germany",
"league_display_name": "3. Liga",
"league_id": 80,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/80.webp",
"league_name": "3. Liga",
"league_public_id": "0akjle0QoiBkC3",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 12:00:00",
"public_id": "03odXsb4Tj3c7H",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Aachen",
"venue_name": "Tivoli"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3896,
"best_odd": 2.88,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0348,
"ev": -0.1485,
"implied_prob": 0.3305,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3305,
"draw": 0.2538,
"home": 0.4157
},
"model_prob": 0.2411,
"p_final": 0.2957
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2881,
"best_odd": 3.75,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0076,
"ev": -0.0196,
"implied_prob": 0.2538,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3305,
"draw": 0.2538,
"home": 0.4157
},
"model_prob": 0.2802,
"p_final": 0.2614
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4075,
"best_odd": 2.29,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0257,
"ev": 0.0107,
"implied_prob": 0.4157,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3305,
"draw": 0.2538,
"home": 0.4157
},
"model_prob": 0.4787,
"p_final": 0.4413
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.88,
"edge": -0.1061,
"ev": -0.3057,
"implied_prob": 0.3472,
"model_prob": 0.2411
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.75,
"edge": 0.0136,
"ev": 0.0509,
"implied_prob": 0.2667,
"model_prob": 0.2802
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.29,
"edge": 0.042,
"ev": 0.0962,
"implied_prob": 0.4367,
"model_prob": 0.4787
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2481,
"alpha_yes": 0.3411,
"best_no_odd": 2.5,
"best_yes_odd": 1.5,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0777,
"edge_yes": -0.0777,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.145,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0338,
"ev_yes": -0.187,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1179,
"implied_no": 0.3803,
"implied_yes": 0.6197,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2481,
"best_odd": 2.41,
"edge": 0.0188,
"ev": -0.0338,
"implied_prob": 0.3821,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"p_final": 0.4009
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3411,
"best_odd": 1.49,
"edge": -0.0259,
"ev": -0.1179,
"implied_prob": 0.6179,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"p_final": 0.592
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4009,
"p_final_yes": 0.592,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.3347,
"alpha_under": 0.2434,
"best_over_odd": 1.61,
"best_under_odd": 2.34,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.565,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.235,
"edge_over": -0.0862,
"edge_under": 0.0862,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1934,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1252,
"ev_under": 0.1677,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0321,
"implied_over": 0.5872,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5882,
"implied_under": 0.4128,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4118,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3347,
"best_odd": 1.565,
"edge": -0.0292,
"ev": -0.1252,
"implied_prob": 0.5882,
"model_prob": 0.501,
"p_final": 0.559
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2434,
"best_odd": 2.235,
"edge": 0.0212,
"ev": -0.0321,
"implied_prob": 0.4118,
"model_prob": 0.499,
"p_final": 0.4331
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.559,
"p_final_under": 0.4331,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.68,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1677,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1677,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1677,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 8.1,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 8.1,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.6
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Alemannia Aachen)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1677,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1677,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.6,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 80,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Alemannia Aachen at 47.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Alemannia Aachen as the value side (47.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Alemannia Aachen",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +16.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +16.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+16.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Alemannia Aachen).",
"Decision strength: 8.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0107,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.29,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4157,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4787,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4366812227074236,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0962,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 18.5,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.52"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.52
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.542,
"draw_prob": 0.2802,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4787,
"over_prob": 0.501,
"total_xg": 2.68,
"under_prob": 0.499,
"xg_diff": 0.52
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.29,
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0257,
"ev": 0.0107,
"implied_prob": 0.4157,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4787,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Alemannia Aachen"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2481,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.41,
"edge": 0.0188,
"market_prob": 0.3821,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.458,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2481,
"best_odd": 2.41,
"edge": 0.0188,
"ev": -0.0338,
"implied_prob": 0.3821,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"p_final": 0.4009
},
"p_final": 0.4009,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0338,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3411,
"best_odd": 1.49,
"edge": -0.0259,
"ev": -0.1179,
"implied_prob": 0.6179,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"p_final": 0.592
}
},
"edge": 0.0777,
"ev": 0.145,
"implied_prob": 0.3803,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2434,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.235,
"edge": 0.0212,
"market_prob": 0.4118,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.499,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3347,
"best_odd": 1.565,
"edge": -0.0292,
"ev": -0.1252,
"implied_prob": 0.5882,
"model_prob": 0.501,
"p_final": 0.559
},
"p_final": 0.4331,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0321,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2434,
"best_odd": 2.235,
"edge": 0.0212,
"ev": -0.0321,
"implied_prob": 0.4118,
"model_prob": 0.499,
"p_final": 0.4331
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0862,
"ev": 0.1677,
"implied_prob": 0.4128,
"model_prob": 0.499,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1584004,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1677,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2411,
"draw": 0.2802,
"home": 0.4787
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.145,
"implied_prob": 0.3803,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.458,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.145,
"implied_prob": 0.3803,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.458,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Fortuna D\u00fcsseldorf",
"home": "Alemannia Aachen"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.083682,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1677,
"implied_prob": 0.4128,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.499,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0107,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.29,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4157,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4787,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4366812227074236,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0962,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1584004,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T11:57:17.895827+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Alemannia Aachen & Fortuna Düsseldorf!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
3. Liga — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MSV Duisburg | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 18 |
| 2 | FC Viktoria Köln | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 15 |
| 3 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 4 | FC Saarbrücken | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 5 | Hoffenheim II | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 6 | Hansa Rostock | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 7 | Alemannia Aachen | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 | Preußen Münster | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Waldhof Mannheim | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 10 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 11 | Verl | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 12 | Fortuna Köln | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 13 | SG Sonnenhof Großaspach | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 14 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 15 | Stuttgart II | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 16 | Würzburger Kickers | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 17 | SV Meppen | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 18 | SSV Jahn Regensburg | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 19 | SV Wehen Wiesbaden | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 20 | Havelse | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MSV Duisburg | 7 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 18 |
| 2 | FC Viktoria Köln | 7 | 19 | 9 | +10 | 15 |
| 3 | FC Saarbrücken | 7 | 19 | 12 | +7 | 13 |
| 4 | Hansa Rostock | 7 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 12 |
| 5 | Hoffenheim II | 7 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 13 |
| 6 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 7 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 14 |
| 7 | SSV Jahn Regensburg | 7 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 5 |
| 8 | Preußen Münster | 7 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 11 |
| 9 | Stuttgart II | 7 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 7 |
| 10 | Alemannia Aachen | 7 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 11 |
| 11 | Waldhof Mannheim | 7 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 10 |
| 12 | Würzburger Kickers | 7 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 7 |
| 13 | Verl | 7 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 | Havelse | 7 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 4 |
| 15 | Fortuna Köln | 7 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 9 |
| 16 | SV Meppen | 7 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 6 |
| 17 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 8 |
| 18 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 7 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 10 |
| 19 | SG Sonnenhof Großaspach | 7 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 8 |
| 20 | SV Wehen Wiesbaden | 7 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 5 |
