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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (4 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 SG Sonnenhof Großaspach Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-2 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.02
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · Havelse 2–2 SG Sonnenhof Großaspach
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
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"content_hash": "3f8ecc7cec855bacd37d89fbaeec25c6343aba73d4289d75a7e655fc8cf6cf4a",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.35,
"away_win_prob": 0.3754,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2961,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.66,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.04,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.25,
"home_win_prob": 0.3285,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Winner : Havelse",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "30%",
"percent_draw": "35%",
"percent_home": "35%",
"winner_name": "Havelse"
},
"away_xg": 1.35,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0949,
"edge_gap": 0.047,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4705,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 37.6,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 32.9
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.02
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.02,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.13,
"market_odds": 2.02,
"model_odds": 2.66,
"overround": 5.2,
"prob_edge": -11.9,
"value_pct": -24.1,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 2,
"away_failed_to_score": 2,
"away_played": 4,
"away_score_rate": 74.1,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 4,
"home_score_rate": 71.3,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.35,
"home_expected": 1.25,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.8
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Havelse or Draw",
"prob": 62.5
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Havelse or SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach",
"prob": 67.1
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Havelse or SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 37.5,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 32.9,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.5,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 18.7,
"implied_prob": 24.9,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.6,
"odds": 4.01
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 47.05,
"draw": 23.7,
"home": 29.25
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-12 11:57:33",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-12 11:33:56",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Havelse",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 29.25,
"gap_pp": 3.63,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 32.87
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 23.7,
"gap_pp": 5.86,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.56
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 47.05,
"gap_pp": -9.49,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 37.57
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 63.66,
"gap_pp": -15.46,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 36.34,
"gap_pp": 15.46,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 3.25,
"early": 3.25,
"implied_closing_pct": 29.25,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 29.25,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 4.01,
"early": 4.01,
"implied_closing_pct": 23.7,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 23.7,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.02,
"early": 2.02,
"implied_closing_pct": 47.05,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 47.05,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.49,
"early": 1.49,
"implied_closing_pct": 63.66,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 63.66,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.61,
"early": 2.61,
"implied_closing_pct": 36.34,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 36.34,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 15.5,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 0.0,
"ev": 0.0,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 8.0,
"market_prob": 0.125,
"market_prob_pct": 12.5,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.8
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.25,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1404,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.455,
"edge": 0.0206,
"edge_pp": 2.1,
"market_prob": 0.3713,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.193,
"best_odd": 1.45,
"edge": -0.0283,
"ev": -0.1295,
"implied_prob": 0.6287,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6004
},
"p_final": 0.3919,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2717,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0379,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1404,
"best_odd": 2.455,
"edge": 0.0206,
"ev": -0.0379,
"implied_prob": 0.3713,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3919
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2674,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -26.7,
"text": "-26.7%"
},
"ev_under": 0.3468,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 34.7,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.3468,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10462.12,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1537,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.58,
"edge": 0.015,
"edge_pp": 1.5,
"market_prob": 0.3574,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1537,
"best_odd": 2.58,
"edge": 0.015,
"ev": -0.0392,
"implied_prob": 0.3574,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3724
},
"p_final": 0.3724,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1739,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0392,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2113,
"best_odd": 1.435,
"edge": -0.0206,
"ev": -0.1075,
"implied_prob": 0.6426,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.622
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1966,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 19.7,
"text": "+19.7%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.2152,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -21.5,
"text": "-21.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1966,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10176.94,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.02,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1235,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -12.3,
"text": "-12.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4705,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0067,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.7,
"text": "-0.7%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2411,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.1%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach",
"sort_key": 1798.325,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "7/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "7/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +11.5%",
"alert_team": "Havelse",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 9.5,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.51,
"hero_label": "SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach",
"market_prob_pct": 47.0,
"market_team": "SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach",
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"model_team": "SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 54,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3468,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3468,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +34.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +34.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+34.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach).",
"Decision strength: 6.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1235,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.02,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4705,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49504950495049505,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2411,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "7/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7777777777777778,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.8,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 85,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 9.51,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.51,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.35,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.25,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.35,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.25 \u00b7 Away xG 1.35 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +0%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.5,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +11.5%",
"steam_team": "Havelse",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3468,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3468,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +34.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +34.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+34.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach).",
"Decision strength: 6.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1235,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.02,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4705,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49504950495049505,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2411,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Havelse 1.25 xG vs SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach 1.35 \u2192 SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach 37.5%",
"Market: SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach ~47.0% implied",
"Market Drift: Havelse odds \u2191 +11.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 3.6,
"fair_prob": 32.85,
"label": "Havelse",
"market_prob": 29.25,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.91,
"fair_prob": 29.61,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.7,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.51,
"fair_prob": 37.54,
"label": "SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach",
"market_prob": 47.05,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.46,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 62.66,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.46,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 37.34,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.67,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 64.17,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.67,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 35.83,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -9.51,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach",
"market_prob_pct": 47.05,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Havelse"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach\u0027s win probability at 47.0%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 37.5%, a difference of 9.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 9.51,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 47.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-9.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -9.5,
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-9.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -9.5,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 85,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Havelse 1.25 xG vs SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach 1.35 \u2192 SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach 37.5%",
"Market: SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach ~47.0% implied",
"Market Drift: Havelse odds \u2191 +11.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.51,
"hero_label": "SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Havelse odds lengthened \u2191 +11.5%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Havelse has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.5%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Havelse \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.5% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, Havelse has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.5%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Havelse \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.5% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Havelse has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.5%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/9) supports the current market view on Havelse."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 9.51,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 4.7 pp (at 37.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 4.7,
"max_prob_pct": 37.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach",
"largest_gap_pp": -9.5,
"lead": "The closing market prices SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.5,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 3.6,
"edge_pp": 3.6,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Havelse",
"market_prob_pct": 29.25,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.91,
"edge_pp": 5.91,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.61,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.7,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -9.51,
"edge_pp": -9.51,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach",
"market_prob_pct": 47.05,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Havelse \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.5% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach (47.0%).",
"However, Havelse has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +11.5%, 7/9) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 49.5,
"closing_odds": 2.02,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 49.5,
"entry_odds": 2.02,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.6
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "7/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.9,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.5%",
"move_pct_abs": 11.5,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 42h 27m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Havelse (11.5%, 7/9) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.5,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.25",
"2.92",
"2.60"
],
"display": "3.11 \u2192 2.55 \u2192 2.90",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 42h 27m",
"pick_team": "Havelse",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.11"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.55"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.90"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.6,
3.25,
2.9
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,9.7",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.60"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.60"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.25"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.90"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.6,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 7/9 sportsbooks on Havelse",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Havelse",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.9,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.5%",
"open_odds": 2.6,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Havelse",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 54,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/9",
"current_odds": 2.9,
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.5%",
"open_odds": 2.6,
"pick_team": "Havelse",
"steam_score": 54,
"steam_team_name": "Havelse",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 9.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "sg-sonnenhof-grossaspach",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach",
"away_team_id": 1317,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1317.webp",
"away_team_name": "SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach",
"away_team_public_id": "1pipJZCPdxvSrK",
"away_team_slug": "sg-sonnenhof-grossaspach",
"country_code": "DE",
"country_display_name": "Germany",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/de.svg",
"country_id": 60,
"country_name": "Germany",
"fixture_id": 1583990,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Germany",
"home_team_display_name": "Havelse",
"home_team_id": 9342,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/9342.webp",
"home_team_name": "Havelse",
"home_team_public_id": "1MoCafzpng3eNg",
"home_team_slug": "havelse",
"ht.home_team_slug": "havelse",
"league_country": "Germany",
"league_country_display": "Germany",
"league_display_name": "3. Liga",
"league_id": 80,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/80.webp",
"league_name": "3. Liga",
"league_public_id": "0akjle0QoiBkC3",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-12 12:00:00",
"public_id": "3zv6ZCLPlNZHua",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.386,
"best_odd": 2.02,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0366,
"ev": -0.1235,
"implied_prob": 0.4705,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4705,
"draw": 0.237,
"home": 0.2925
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"p_final": 0.4339
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1824,
"best_odd": 4.01,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0107,
"ev": -0.0067,
"implied_prob": 0.237,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4705,
"draw": 0.237,
"home": 0.2925
},
"model_prob": 0.2956,
"p_final": 0.2477
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2837,
"best_odd": 3.25,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0103,
"ev": -0.0161,
"implied_prob": 0.2925,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4705,
"draw": 0.237,
"home": 0.2925
},
"model_prob": 0.3287,
"p_final": 0.3027
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.02,
"edge": -0.1194,
"ev": -0.2412,
"implied_prob": 0.495,
"model_prob": 0.3757
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.01,
"edge": 0.0463,
"ev": 0.1855,
"implied_prob": 0.2494,
"model_prob": 0.2956
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.25,
"edge": 0.021,
"ev": 0.0683,
"implied_prob": 0.3077,
"model_prob": 0.3287
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1537,
"alpha_yes": 0.2113,
"best_no_odd": 2.63,
"best_yes_odd": 1.44,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0967,
"edge_yes": -0.0967,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1966,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0392,
"ev_yes": -0.2152,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1075,
"implied_no": 0.3583,
"implied_yes": 0.6417,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1537,
"best_odd": 2.58,
"edge": 0.015,
"ev": -0.0392,
"implied_prob": 0.3574,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3724
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2113,
"best_odd": 1.435,
"edge": -0.0206,
"ev": -0.1075,
"implied_prob": 0.6426,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.622
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.3724,
"p_final_yes": 0.622,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.193,
"alpha_under": 0.1404,
"best_over_odd": 1.52,
"best_under_odd": 2.6,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.45,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.455,
"edge_over": -0.1446,
"edge_under": 0.1446,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2674,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1295,
"ev_under": 0.3468,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0379,
"implied_over": 0.6266,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6287,
"implied_under": 0.3734,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3713,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.193,
"best_odd": 1.45,
"edge": -0.0283,
"ev": -0.1295,
"implied_prob": 0.6287,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6004
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1404,
"best_odd": 2.455,
"edge": 0.0206,
"ev": -0.0379,
"implied_prob": 0.3713,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3919
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6004,
"p_final_under": 0.3919,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3468,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3468,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3468,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.9
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3468,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3468,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +34.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +34.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+34.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach).",
"Decision strength: 6.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1235,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.02,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4705,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49504950495049505,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2411,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2956,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3757,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.1
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.02,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0366,
"ev": -0.1235,
"implied_prob": 0.4705,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1537,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.58,
"edge": 0.015,
"market_prob": 0.3574,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1537,
"best_odd": 2.58,
"edge": 0.015,
"ev": -0.0392,
"implied_prob": 0.3574,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3724
},
"p_final": 0.3724,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0392,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2113,
"best_odd": 1.435,
"edge": -0.0206,
"ev": -0.1075,
"implied_prob": 0.6426,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.622
}
},
"edge": 0.0967,
"ev": 0.1966,
"implied_prob": 0.3583,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1404,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.455,
"edge": 0.0206,
"market_prob": 0.3713,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.193,
"best_odd": 1.45,
"edge": -0.0283,
"ev": -0.1295,
"implied_prob": 0.6287,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6004
},
"p_final": 0.3919,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0379,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1404,
"best_odd": 2.455,
"edge": 0.0206,
"ev": -0.0379,
"implied_prob": 0.3713,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3919
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1446,
"ev": 0.3468,
"implied_prob": 0.3734,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1583990,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3468,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3757,
"draw": 0.2956,
"home": 0.3287
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1966,
"implied_prob": 0.3583,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1966,
"implied_prob": 0.3583,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "SG Sonnenhof Gro\u00dfaspach",
"home": "Havelse"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.12575,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3468,
"implied_prob": 0.3734,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1235,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.02,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4705,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49504950495049505,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2411,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1583990,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T11:57:34.815905+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Havelse & SG Sonnenhof Großaspach!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
3. Liga — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MSV Duisburg | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 18 |
| 2 | FC Viktoria Köln | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 15 |
| 3 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 4 | FC Saarbrücken | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 5 | Hoffenheim II | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 6 | Hansa Rostock | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 7 | Alemannia Aachen | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 | Preußen Münster | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Waldhof Mannheim | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 10 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 11 | Verl | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 12 | Fortuna Köln | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 13 | SG Sonnenhof Großaspach | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 14 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 15 | Stuttgart II | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 16 | Würzburger Kickers | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 17 | SV Meppen | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 18 | SSV Jahn Regensburg | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 19 | SV Wehen Wiesbaden | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 20 | Havelse | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MSV Duisburg | 7 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 18 |
| 2 | FC Viktoria Köln | 7 | 19 | 9 | +10 | 15 |
| 3 | FC Saarbrücken | 7 | 19 | 12 | +7 | 13 |
| 4 | Hansa Rostock | 7 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 12 |
| 5 | Hoffenheim II | 7 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 13 |
| 6 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 7 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 14 |
| 7 | SSV Jahn Regensburg | 7 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 5 |
| 8 | Preußen Münster | 7 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 11 |
| 9 | Stuttgart II | 7 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 7 |
| 10 | Alemannia Aachen | 7 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 11 |
| 11 | Waldhof Mannheim | 7 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 10 |
| 12 | Würzburger Kickers | 7 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 7 |
| 13 | Verl | 7 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 | Havelse | 7 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 4 |
| 15 | Fortuna Köln | 7 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 9 |
| 16 | SV Meppen | 7 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 6 |
| 17 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 8 |
| 18 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 7 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 10 |
| 19 | SG Sonnenhof Großaspach | 7 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 8 |
| 20 | SV Wehen Wiesbaden | 7 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 5 |
