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Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (1 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 UMECIT FC UMECIT FC ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.26
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
UMECIT FC win · UMECIT FC 1–0 Union Coclé
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.3,
"away_win_prob": 0.3517,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.546,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.84,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.84,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.3,
"home_win_prob": 0.3517,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : UMECIT FC or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "0%",
"percent_draw": "50%",
"percent_home": "50%",
"winner_name": "UMECIT FC"
},
"away_xg": 1.3,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "UMECIT FC",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0373,
"edge_gap": 0.0,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3891,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 35.2,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 35.2
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.3
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.3,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "UMECIT FC Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.57,
"market_odds": 2.3,
"model_odds": 2.84,
"overround": 11.7,
"prob_edge": -8.3,
"value_pct": -19.0,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 8,
"away_failed_to_score": 10,
"away_played": 25,
"away_score_rate": 72.7,
"home_clean_sheet": 7,
"home_failed_to_score": 5,
"home_played": 27,
"home_score_rate": 72.7,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.3,
"home_expected": 1.3,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.2
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "UMECIT FC or Draw",
"prob": 64.8
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "UMECIT FC or Union Cocl\u00e9",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Union Cocl\u00e9",
"prob": 64.8
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "UMECIT FC or Union Cocl\u00e9",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 35.2,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 35.2,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "UMECIT FC"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.9,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.4,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 14.8,
"implied_prob": 30.7,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Union Cocl\u00e9 Win",
"model_prob": 35.2,
"odds": 3.26
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Union Cocl\u00e9",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 27.45,
"draw": 33.64,
"home": 38.91
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-22 00:59:09",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-22 00:29:25",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "UMECIT FC",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 38.91,
"gap_pp": -3.73,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 35.18
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 33.64,
"gap_pp": -4.0,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.65
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 27.45,
"gap_pp": 7.73,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 35.18
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 37.24,
"gap_pp": 10.96,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 62.76,
"gap_pp": -10.96,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.3,
"early": 2.3,
"implied_closing_pct": 38.91,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 38.91,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 2.66,
"early": 2.66,
"implied_closing_pct": 33.64,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 33.64,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.26,
"early": 3.26,
"implied_closing_pct": 27.45,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 27.45,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.46,
"early": 2.46,
"implied_closing_pct": 37.24,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 37.24,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.46,
"early": 1.46,
"implied_closing_pct": 62.76,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 62.76,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -2.8,
"ev": -0.181,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.5,
"market_prob": 0.1538,
"market_prob_pct": 15.4,
"model_prob": 0.126,
"model_prob_pct": 12.6,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.2
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.3,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1531,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.39,
"edge": 0.0152,
"edge_pp": 1.5,
"market_prob": 0.3824,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1531,
"best_odd": 2.39,
"edge": 0.0152,
"ev": -0.0496,
"implied_prob": 0.3824,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3977
},
"p_final": 0.3977,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.152,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0496,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2105,
"best_odd": 1.48,
"edge": -0.021,
"ev": -0.117,
"implied_prob": 0.6176,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5966
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1857,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 18.6,
"text": "+18.6%"
},
"ev_under": -0.2075,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -20.8,
"text": "-20.8%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1857,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10317.13,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.199,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"edge": 0.0153,
"edge_pp": 1.5,
"market_prob": 0.468,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2189,
"best_odd": 1.68,
"edge": -0.0169,
"ev": -0.1345,
"implied_prob": 0.532,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5152
},
"p_final": 0.4833,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.041,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0769,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.199,
"best_odd": 1.91,
"edge": 0.0153,
"ev": -0.0769,
"implied_prob": 0.468,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4833
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1582,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.8,
"text": "-15.8%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.0955,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 9.6,
"text": "+9.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0955,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10085.95,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.3,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.1416,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -14.2,
"text": "-14.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3891,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0383,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.8,
"text": "-3.8%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.7,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1909,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.1%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "UMECIT FC",
"sort_key": 1790.425,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 7.7,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 7.72,
"hero_label": "Union Cocl\u00e9",
"market_prob_pct": 38.9,
"market_team": "UMECIT FC",
"model_prob_pct": 35.2,
"model_team": "UMECIT FC",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (UMECIT FC)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (UMECIT FC)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1857,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1857,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.5,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 79,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates UMECIT FC at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies UMECIT FC as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "UMECIT FC",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +18.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +18.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+18.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (UMECIT FC).",
"Decision strength: 5.5/10"
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1416,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.3,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3891,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4347826086956522,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1909,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "1/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.125,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 1.2,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 76,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 7.72,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.72,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.3,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.3,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.3,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.30 \u00b7 Away xG 1.30 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "UMECIT FC",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 79,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 81,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 81,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (UMECIT FC).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (UMECIT FC)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (UMECIT FC)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1857,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1857,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.5,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 79,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates UMECIT FC at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies UMECIT FC as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "UMECIT FC",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +18.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +18.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+18.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (UMECIT FC).",
"Decision strength: 5.5/10"
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1416,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.3,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3891,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4347826086956522,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1909,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: UMECIT FC 1.30 xG vs Union Cocl\u00e9 1.30 \u2192 UMECIT FC 35.2%",
"Market: UMECIT FC ~38.9% implied",
"Market Steam: UMECIT FC +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean UMECIT FC with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -3.74,
"fair_prob": 35.17,
"label": "UMECIT FC",
"market_prob": 38.91,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.99,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 33.64,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.72,
"fair_prob": 35.17,
"label": "Union Cocl\u00e9",
"market_prob": 27.45,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.64,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 38.56,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.64,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 61.44,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.93,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 46.57,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.93,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 53.43,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 7.72,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Union Cocl\u00e9",
"market_prob_pct": 27.45,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "UMECIT FC"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Union Cocl\u00e9\u0027s win probability at 35.2%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 27.4%, a difference of 7.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 7.72,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "UMECIT FC",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 38.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-3.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -3.7,
"model_prob_pct": 35.2,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-3.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -3.7,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 76,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "UMECIT FC \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 79,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 81,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 81,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: UMECIT FC 1.30 xG vs Union Cocl\u00e9 1.30 \u2192 UMECIT FC 35.2%",
"Market: UMECIT FC ~38.9% implied",
"Market Steam: UMECIT FC +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean UMECIT FC with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 7.72,
"hero_label": "Union Cocl\u00e9",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Union Cocl\u00e9.",
"note": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Union Cocl\u00e9.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Union Cocl\u00e9."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Union Cocl\u00e9.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 7.72,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.0 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.0,
"max_prob_pct": 35.2,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Union Cocl\u00e9",
"largest_gap_pp": 7.7,
"lead": "The model rates Union Cocl\u00e9 considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.7,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -3.74,
"edge_pp": -3.74,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "UMECIT FC",
"market_prob_pct": 38.91,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -3.99,
"edge_pp": -3.99,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 33.64,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 7.72,
"edge_pp": 7.72,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Union Cocl\u00e9",
"market_prob_pct": 27.45,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Union Cocl\u00e9.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers UMECIT FC (38.9%).",
"UMECIT FC \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 30.67,
"closing_odds": 3.26,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 30.67,
"entry_odds": 3.26,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/8",
"current_odds": 2.1,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.1,
"pick_team": "UMECIT FC",
"steam_score": 0,
"steam_team_name": "UMECIT FC",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 7.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": null,
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Union Cocl\u00e9",
"away_team_id": 27364,
"away_team_logo": null,
"away_team_name": "Union Cocl\u00e9",
"away_team_public_id": "1qcS0CUfFNIaeg",
"away_team_slug": null,
"country_code": "PA",
"country_display_name": "Panama",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/pa.svg",
"country_id": 124,
"country_name": "Panama",
"fixture_id": 1583770,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Panama",
"home_team_display_name": "UMECIT FC",
"home_team_id": 20788,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/20788.webp",
"home_team_name": "UMECIT FC",
"home_team_public_id": "0aVEglS6fkVVZe",
"home_team_slug": "umecit",
"ht.home_team_slug": "umecit",
"league_country": "Panama",
"league_country_display": "Panama",
"league_display_name": "Liga Paname\u00f1a de F\u00fatbol",
"league_id": 304,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/304.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Paname\u00f1a de F\u00fatbol",
"league_public_id": "5kIyybnJP7RpfB",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-22 01:00:00",
"public_id": "3S5lEqRv9NdBZG",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2652,
"best_odd": 3.26,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0205,
"ev": -0.0383,
"implied_prob": 0.2745,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2745,
"draw": 0.3364,
"home": 0.3891
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"p_final": 0.295
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.423,
"best_odd": 2.66,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0169,
"ev": -0.1501,
"implied_prob": 0.3364,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2745,
"draw": 0.3364,
"home": 0.3891
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.3195
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4248,
"best_odd": 2.3,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0158,
"ev": -0.1416,
"implied_prob": 0.3891,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2745,
"draw": 0.3364,
"home": 0.3891
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"p_final": 0.3732
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.26,
"edge": 0.045,
"ev": 0.1468,
"implied_prob": 0.3067,
"model_prob": 0.3518
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.66,
"edge": -0.0795,
"ev": -0.2114,
"implied_prob": 0.3759,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.3,
"edge": -0.083,
"ev": -0.1909,
"implied_prob": 0.4348,
"model_prob": 0.3518
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2189,
"alpha_yes": 0.199,
"best_no_odd": 1.85,
"best_yes_odd": 2.01,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0793,
"edge_yes": 0.0793,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1582,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1345,
"ev_yes": 0.0955,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0769,
"implied_no": 0.5343,
"implied_yes": 0.4657,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2189,
"best_odd": 1.68,
"edge": -0.0169,
"ev": -0.1345,
"implied_prob": 0.532,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5152
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.199,
"best_odd": 1.91,
"edge": 0.0153,
"ev": -0.0769,
"implied_prob": 0.468,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4833
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.5152,
"p_final_yes": 0.4833,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1531,
"alpha_under": 0.2105,
"best_over_odd": 2.46,
"best_under_odd": 1.53,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.39,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.48,
"edge_over": 0.0964,
"edge_under": -0.0964,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1857,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0496,
"ev_under": -0.2075,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.117,
"implied_over": 0.3856,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3824,
"implied_under": 0.6144,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6176,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1531,
"best_odd": 2.39,
"edge": 0.0152,
"ev": -0.0496,
"implied_prob": 0.3824,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3977
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2105,
"best_odd": 1.48,
"edge": -0.021,
"ev": -0.117,
"implied_prob": 0.6176,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5966
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3977,
"p_final_under": 0.5966,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1857,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1857,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1857,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.5
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (UMECIT FC)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1857,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1857,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.5,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 79,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates UMECIT FC at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies UMECIT FC as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "UMECIT FC",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +18.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +18.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+18.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (UMECIT FC).",
"Decision strength: 5.5/10"
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1416,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.3,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3891,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4347826086956522,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1909,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3518,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.0
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.3,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0158,
"ev": -0.1416,
"implied_prob": 0.3891,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "UMECIT FC"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.199,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"edge": 0.0153,
"market_prob": 0.468,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2189,
"best_odd": 1.68,
"edge": -0.0169,
"ev": -0.1345,
"implied_prob": 0.532,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5152
},
"p_final": 0.4833,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0769,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.199,
"best_odd": 1.91,
"edge": 0.0153,
"ev": -0.0769,
"implied_prob": 0.468,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4833
}
},
"edge": 0.0793,
"ev": 0.0955,
"implied_prob": 0.4657,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1531,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.39,
"edge": 0.0152,
"market_prob": 0.3824,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1531,
"best_odd": 2.39,
"edge": 0.0152,
"ev": -0.0496,
"implied_prob": 0.3824,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3977
},
"p_final": 0.3977,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0496,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2105,
"best_odd": 1.48,
"edge": -0.021,
"ev": -0.117,
"implied_prob": 0.6176,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5966
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0964,
"ev": 0.1857,
"implied_prob": 0.3856,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1583770,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1857,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3518,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.3518
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0955,
"implied_prob": 0.4657,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0955,
"implied_prob": 0.4657,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Union Cocl\u00e9",
"home": "UMECIT FC"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.062655,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1857,
"implied_prob": 0.3856,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1416,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.3,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3891,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4347826086956522,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1909,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1583770,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-22T00:59:11.700243+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho UMECIT FC & Union Coclé!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Liga Panameña de Fútbol — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Plaza Amador | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 31 |
| 2 | Alianza FC (Panamá) | 16 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 27 |
| 3 | UMECIT FC | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 25 |
| 4 | Veraguas United | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 25 |
| 5 | Union Coclé | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 23 |
| 6 | Tauro FC | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 21 |
| 7 | CD Árabe Unido | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 21 |
| 8 | Independiente de La Chorrera | 16 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 20 |
| 9 | San Francisco FC | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 20 |
| 10 | Sporting San Miguelito | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 18 |
| 11 | Deportivo Universitario | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 14 |
| 12 | Herrera FC | 16 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 8 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Plaza Amador | 16 | 28 | 16 | +12 | 31 |
| 2 | UMECIT FC | 16 | 28 | 20 | +8 | 25 |
| 3 | Alianza FC (Panamá) | 16 | 26 | 20 | +6 | 27 |
| 4 | Veraguas United | 16 | 26 | 23 | +3 | 25 |
| 5 | Tauro FC | 16 | 22 | 19 | +3 | 21 |
| 6 | San Francisco FC | 16 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 20 |
| 7 | Sporting San Miguelito | 16 | 19 | 21 | -2 | 18 |
| 8 | Deportivo Universitario | 16 | 19 | 27 | -8 | 14 |
| 9 | Independiente de La Chorrera | 16 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 20 |
| 10 | Union Coclé | 16 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 23 |
| 11 | CD Árabe Unido | 16 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 21 |
| 12 | Herrera FC | 16 | 13 | 37 | -24 | 8 |
