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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (0 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Yarud Mariupol Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 0-0 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.5
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · Yarud Mariupol 0–0 Nyva Ternopil
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
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"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "eaf05e26c0431db2075816613ff62ae309a049caf91d85b453708e759cf90685",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.1,
"away_win_prob": 0.2622,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.466,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.534,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2895,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.81,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.45,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.23,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.5,
"home_win_prob": 0.4483,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Yarud Mariupol or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "30%",
"percent_draw": "35%",
"percent_home": "35%",
"winner_name": "Yarud Mariupol"
},
"away_xg": 1.1,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Yarud Mariupol",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.005,
"edge_gap": 0.1585,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4531,
"model_prob": 0.4481,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 26.2,
"draw": 29.0,
"home": 44.8
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "betmgm us",
"odd": 1.95
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.95,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "betmgm us",
"display_market": "Yarud Mariupol Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.21,
"market_odds": 1.95,
"model_odds": 2.23,
"overround": 13.2,
"prob_edge": -6.4,
"value_pct": -12.6,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 1,
"away_failed_to_score": 3,
"away_played": 9,
"away_score_rate": 66.7,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 3,
"home_played": 9,
"home_score_rate": 77.7,
"no_prob": 46.6,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 53.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 53.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.1,
"home_expected": 1.5,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.3
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 11.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 8.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.2
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Yarud Mariupol or Draw",
"prob": 73.7
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Yarud Mariupol or Nyva Ternopil",
"prob": 71.0
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Nyva Ternopil",
"prob": 55.1
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Yarud Mariupol or Draw",
"pick_prob": 73.7
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 26.2,
"draw_pct": 28.9,
"home_pct": 44.8,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Yarud Mariupol"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.3,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "betmgm us",
"edge": -12.6,
"implied_prob": 51.3,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Yarud Mariupol Win",
"model_prob": 44.8,
"odds": 1.95
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Nyva Ternopil",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 25.24,
"draw": 29.45,
"home": 45.31
},
"closing_bookmaker": "betmgm us",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-05 12:25:31",
"closing_source": "oddsportal",
"early_bookmaker": "ggbet",
"early_capture": "PRE20",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-05 12:09:21",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Yarud Mariupol",
"largest_move_kind": "1x2_h",
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.96,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 45.31,
"gap_pp": -0.5,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 44.81
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 29.45,
"gap_pp": -0.49,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 28.96
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.24,
"gap_pp": 0.98,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 26.23
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.95,
"early": 1.99,
"implied_closing_pct": 45.31,
"implied_delta_pp": -0.96,
"implied_early_pct": 46.27,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.0,
"early": 3.23,
"implied_closing_pct": 29.45,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.94,
"implied_early_pct": 28.51,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.5,
"early": 3.65,
"implied_closing_pct": 25.24,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.02,
"implied_early_pct": 25.23,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
],
"movement_negligible": false,
"same_bookmaker": false,
"top_value_gap": null
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -0.4,
"ev": -0.0283,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.9,
"market_prob": 0.1266,
"market_prob_pct": 12.7,
"model_prob": 0.123,
"model_prob_pct": 12.3,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.3
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.3
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 11.1
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 8.4
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.2
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.5,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1981,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.025,
"edge": 0.0158,
"edge_pp": 1.6,
"market_prob": 0.4542,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.534,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2179,
"best_odd": 1.685,
"edge": -0.0174,
"ev": -0.1096,
"implied_prob": 0.5458,
"model_prob": 0.466,
"p_final": 0.5284
},
"p_final": 0.47,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0814,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0483,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1981,
"best_odd": 2.025,
"edge": 0.0158,
"ev": -0.0483,
"implied_prob": 0.4542,
"model_prob": 0.534,
"p_final": 0.47
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2078,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -20.8,
"text": "-20.8%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.1214,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 12.1,
"text": "+12.1%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1214,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no_prob": 46.6,
"sort_key": 10259.26,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 53.4
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1627,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0104,
"edge_pp": 1.0,
"market_prob": 0.418,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1627,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0104,
"ev": -0.0575,
"implied_prob": 0.418,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4284
},
"p_final": 0.4284,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0604,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0575,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2237,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": -0.0143,
"ev": -0.1031,
"implied_prob": 0.582,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5677
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0845,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 8.5,
"text": "+8.5%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1453,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -14.5,
"text": "-14.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0845,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10076.05,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.1223,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -12.2,
"text": "-12.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4531,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.1063,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -10.6,
"text": "-10.6%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4481,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1262,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.6%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Yarud Mariupol",
"sort_key": 1773.425,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 816.9,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.3
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "2/7",
"alert_breadth_note": "2/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"alert_team": "Nyva Ternopil",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 1.0,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 0.98,
"hero_label": "Nyva Ternopil",
"market_prob_pct": 45.3,
"market_team": "Yarud Mariupol",
"model_prob_pct": 44.8,
"model_team": "Yarud Mariupol",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 38,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 1.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Yarud Mariupol)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 1.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Yarud Mariupol)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1214,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1214,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Yarud Mariupol at 44.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 45.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Yarud Mariupol as the value side (44.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Yarud Mariupol",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Yarud Mariupol).",
"Decision strength: 7.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1223,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4531,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4481,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5128205128205129,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1262,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 11.1,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.4
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "2/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.2857142857142857,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 24.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 2.9,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 84,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 0.98,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 0.98,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.1,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 11.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.5,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.5,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.50 \u00b7 Away xG 1.10 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +11%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.1,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"steam_team": "Nyva Ternopil",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 97,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 97,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Yarud Mariupol).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 1.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Yarud Mariupol)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 1.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Yarud Mariupol)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1214,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1214,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Yarud Mariupol at 44.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 45.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Yarud Mariupol as the value side (44.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Yarud Mariupol",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Yarud Mariupol).",
"Decision strength: 7.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1223,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4531,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4481,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5128205128205129,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1262,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 11.1,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.4
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Yarud Mariupol 1.50 xG vs Nyva Ternopil 1.10 \u2192 Yarud Mariupol 44.8%",
"Market: Yarud Mariupol ~45.3% implied",
"Market Drift: Nyva Ternopil odds \u2191 +11.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Yarud Mariupol projects stronger on expected goals (+0.40 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -0.48,
"fair_prob": 44.83,
"label": "Yarud Mariupol",
"market_prob": 45.31,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.5,
"fair_prob": 28.95,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 29.45,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.98,
"fair_prob": 26.22,
"label": "Nyva Ternopil",
"market_prob": 25.24,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.02,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.18,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.02,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.82,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.09,
"fair_prob": 53.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 45.31,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.09,
"fair_prob": 46.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 54.69,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 0.98,
"fair_prob_pct": 26.22,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Nyva Ternopil",
"market_prob_pct": 25.24,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Nyva Ternopil"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 0.98,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Yarud Mariupol",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 45.3,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-0.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -0.5,
"model_prob_pct": 44.8,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-0.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -0.5,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 84,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Yarud Mariupol \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 97,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 97,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Yarud Mariupol 1.50 xG vs Nyva Ternopil 1.10 \u2192 Yarud Mariupol 44.8%",
"Market: Yarud Mariupol ~45.3% implied",
"Market Drift: Nyva Ternopil odds \u2191 +11.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Yarud Mariupol projects stronger on expected goals (+0.40 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 0.98,
"hero_label": "Nyva Ternopil",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Nyva Ternopil odds lengthened \u2191 +11.1%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "Confirmation remains limited (2/7 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Nyva Ternopil.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"Confirmation remains limited (2/7 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Nyva Ternopil."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"Recent line movement on Nyva Ternopil (\u2191 +11.1%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (2/7), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 0.98,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 15.9 pp (at 44.8%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 15.9,
"max_prob_pct": 44.8,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Nyva Ternopil",
"largest_gap_pp": 1.0,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 1.0,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -0.48,
"edge_pp": -0.48,
"fair_prob_pct": 44.83,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Yarud Mariupol",
"market_prob_pct": 45.31,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.5,
"edge_pp": -0.5,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.95,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 29.45,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.98,
"edge_pp": 0.98,
"fair_prob_pct": 26.22,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Nyva Ternopil",
"market_prob_pct": 25.24,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Nyva Ternopil.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Yarud Mariupol (45.3%).",
"Nyva Ternopil odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +11.1%, 2/7) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Yarud Mariupol \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 28.57,
"closing_odds": 3.5,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 28.57,
"entry_odds": 3.5,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 2,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.1
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "2/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.0,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 11.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 20h 48m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Nyva Ternopil (11.1%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.00",
"3.80",
"3.60"
],
"display": "4.68 \u2192 3.60 \u2192 4.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 20h 48m",
"pick_team": "Nyva Ternopil",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.68"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.60"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.6,
3.88,
4.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,5.4 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.60"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.60"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.6,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Nyva Ternopil",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.0,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"open_odds": 3.6,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Nyva Ternopil",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 38,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/7",
"current_odds": 4.0,
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"open_odds": 3.6,
"pick_team": "Nyva Ternopil",
"steam_score": 38,
"steam_team_name": "Nyva Ternopil",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 1.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "nyva-ternopil",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Nyva Ternopil",
"away_team_id": 6493,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/6493.webp",
"away_team_name": "Nyva Ternopil",
"away_team_public_id": "1DXJcgtSoz75sv",
"away_team_slug": "nyva-ternopil",
"country_code": "UA",
"country_display_name": "Ukraine",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ua.svg",
"country_id": 160,
"country_name": "Ukraine",
"fixture_id": 1581922,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Ukraine",
"home_team_display_name": "Yarud Mariupol",
"home_team_id": 14441,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/14441.webp",
"home_team_name": "Yarud Mariupol",
"home_team_public_id": "3QXd3YOmrhOhTI",
"home_team_slug": "yarud-mariupol",
"ht.home_team_slug": "yarud-mariupol",
"league_country": "Ukraine",
"league_country_display": "Ukraine",
"league_display_name": "Persha Liga Ukraine",
"league_id": 334,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/334.webp",
"league_name": "Persha Liga Ukraine",
"league_public_id": "4wkMf1hs6IaUBB",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-05 12:30:00",
"public_id": "4TWjIoy9DWhnPw",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Kovalivka",
"venue_name": "Kolos Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2956,
"best_odd": 3.5,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0029,
"ev": -0.1063,
"implied_prob": 0.2524,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2524,
"draw": 0.2945,
"home": 0.4531
},
"model_prob": 0.2623,
"p_final": 0.2553
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2978,
"best_odd": 3.0,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0014,
"ev": -0.1208,
"implied_prob": 0.2945,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2524,
"draw": 0.2945,
"home": 0.4531
},
"model_prob": 0.2896,
"p_final": 0.2931
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5955,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.003,
"ev": -0.1223,
"implied_prob": 0.4531,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2524,
"draw": 0.2945,
"home": 0.4531
},
"model_prob": 0.4481,
"p_final": 0.4501
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.5,
"edge": -0.0234,
"ev": -0.0821,
"implied_prob": 0.2857,
"model_prob": 0.2623
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.0,
"edge": -0.0437,
"ev": -0.1311,
"implied_prob": 0.3333,
"model_prob": 0.2896
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": -0.0647,
"ev": -0.1262,
"implied_prob": 0.5128,
"model_prob": 0.4481
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2179,
"alpha_yes": 0.1981,
"best_no_odd": 1.7,
"best_yes_odd": 2.1,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0809,
"edge_yes": 0.0809,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2078,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1096,
"ev_yes": 0.1214,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0483,
"implied_no": 0.5469,
"implied_yes": 0.4531,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2179,
"best_odd": 1.685,
"edge": -0.0174,
"ev": -0.1096,
"implied_prob": 0.5458,
"model_prob": 0.466,
"p_final": 0.5284
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1981,
"best_odd": 2.025,
"edge": 0.0158,
"ev": -0.0483,
"implied_prob": 0.4542,
"model_prob": 0.534,
"p_final": 0.47
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.5284,
"p_final_yes": 0.47,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1627,
"alpha_under": 0.2237,
"best_over_odd": 2.25,
"best_under_odd": 1.65,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.2,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.58,
"edge_over": 0.0602,
"edge_under": -0.0602,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0845,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0575,
"ev_under": -0.1453,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1031,
"implied_over": 0.4218,
"implied_over_mf": 0.418,
"implied_under": 0.5782,
"implied_under_mf": 0.582,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1627,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0104,
"ev": -0.0575,
"implied_prob": 0.418,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4284
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2237,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": -0.0143,
"ev": -0.1031,
"implied_prob": 0.582,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5677
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4284,
"p_final_under": 0.5677,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1214,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1214,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1214,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.9
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 1.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Yarud Mariupol)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1214,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1214,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Yarud Mariupol at 44.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 45.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Yarud Mariupol as the value side (44.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Yarud Mariupol",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Yarud Mariupol).",
"Decision strength: 7.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1223,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4531,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4481,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5128205128205129,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1262,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 11.1,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.4
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.534,
"draw_prob": 0.2896,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4481,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.4
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.003,
"ev": -0.1223,
"implied_prob": 0.4531,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4481,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Yarud Mariupol"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1981,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.025,
"edge": 0.0158,
"market_prob": 0.4542,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.534,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2179,
"best_odd": 1.685,
"edge": -0.0174,
"ev": -0.1096,
"implied_prob": 0.5458,
"model_prob": 0.466,
"p_final": 0.5284
},
"p_final": 0.47,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0483,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1981,
"best_odd": 2.025,
"edge": 0.0158,
"ev": -0.0483,
"implied_prob": 0.4542,
"model_prob": 0.534,
"p_final": 0.47
}
},
"edge": 0.0809,
"ev": 0.1214,
"implied_prob": 0.4531,
"model_prob": 0.534,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1627,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0104,
"market_prob": 0.418,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1627,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0104,
"ev": -0.0575,
"implied_prob": 0.418,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4284
},
"p_final": 0.4284,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0575,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2237,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": -0.0143,
"ev": -0.1031,
"implied_prob": 0.582,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5677
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0602,
"ev": 0.0845,
"implied_prob": 0.4218,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1581922,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1214,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2623,
"draw": 0.2896,
"home": 0.4481
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Nyva Ternopil",
"home": "Yarud Mariupol"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.064828,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1214,
"implied_prob": 0.4531,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.534,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1223,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4531,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4481,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5128205128205129,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1262,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1581922,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-05T12:29:06.967432+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Yarud Mariupol & Nyva Ternopil!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Persha Liga Ukraine — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viktoriya Mykolaivka | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 21 |
| 2 | Ahrobiznes Volochysk | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 20 |
| 3 | Oleksandria | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 19 |
| 4 | SK Poltava | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 5 | Kulykiv | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | Prykarpattia | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 7 | Yarud Mariupol | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 8 | Metal Kharkiv | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| 9 | Inhulets | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 10 | Lokomotiv Kyiv | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 11 | Kolos Kovalivka II | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 12 | Nyva Ternopil | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 11 |
| 13 | UCSA | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 |
| 14 | Probiy Horodenka | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 8 |
| 15 | Chernihiv | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 7 |
| 16 | Polissya II | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 7 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kulykiv | 10 | 20 | 11 | +9 | 17 |
| 2 | Ahrobiznes Volochysk | 11 | 20 | 15 | +5 | 20 |
| 3 | SK Poltava | 11 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 18 |
| 4 | Oleksandria | 10 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 19 |
| 5 | Viktoriya Mykolaivka | 11 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 21 |
| 6 | UCSA | 10 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 10 |
| 7 | Polissya II | 10 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 7 |
| 8 | Metal Kharkiv | 11 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 15 |
| 9 | Prykarpattia | 10 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 15 |
| 10 | Yarud Mariupol | 10 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 15 |
| 11 | Lokomotiv Kyiv | 10 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 13 |
| 12 | Inhulets | 10 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 14 |
| 13 | Kolos Kovalivka II | 10 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 12 |
| 14 | Probiy Horodenka | 11 | 11 | 29 | -18 | 8 |
| 15 | Chernihiv | 9 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 7 |
| 16 | Nyva Ternopil | 10 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 11 |
