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Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 SK Poltava SK Poltava ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-0 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.87
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
SK Poltava win · SK Poltava 3–0 Metal Kharkiv
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
B-
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "61799e662e5fe0dd543a62ea93c5509f5f4cab50e5eb606aa1e4aa13ee2a667b",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.21,
"away_win_prob": 0.3103,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.457,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2951,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.22,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.39,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.53,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.39,
"home_win_prob": 0.3946,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : SK Poltava or draw and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "SK Poltava"
},
"away_xg": 1.21,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "SK Poltava",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0814,
"edge_gap": 0.0846,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4763,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 31.0,
"draw": 29.5,
"home": 39.5
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"odd": 1.87
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.87,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"display_market": "SK Poltava Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.1,
"market_odds": 1.87,
"model_odds": 2.53,
"overround": 12.3,
"prob_edge": -14.0,
"value_pct": -26.1,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 1,
"away_failed_to_score": 2,
"away_played": 7,
"away_score_rate": 70.2,
"home_clean_sheet": 5,
"home_failed_to_score": 2,
"home_played": 7,
"home_score_rate": 75.1,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.21,
"home_expected": 1.39,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.0
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.6
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "SK Poltava or Draw",
"prob": 69.0
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "SK Poltava or Metal Kharkiv",
"prob": 70.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Metal Kharkiv",
"prob": 60.5
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "SK Poltava or Metal Kharkiv",
"pick_prob": 70.5
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 31.0,
"draw_pct": 29.5,
"home_pct": 39.5,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "SK Poltava"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.3,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.3,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"edge": 15.9,
"implied_prob": 26.7,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Metal Kharkiv Win",
"model_prob": 31.0,
"odds": 3.74
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Metal Kharkiv",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 23.82,
"draw": 28.55,
"home": 47.63
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Marathonbet",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 07:59:50",
"early_bookmaker": "Marathonbet",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 07:30:15",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "SK Poltava",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 47.63,
"gap_pp": -8.14,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 39.49
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.55,
"gap_pp": 0.93,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.47
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 23.82,
"gap_pp": 7.21,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 31.03
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 42.29,
"gap_pp": 5.91,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 57.71,
"gap_pp": -5.91,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 47.12,
"gap_pp": 7.18,
"kind": "btts_y",
"model_pct": 54.3
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 52.88,
"gap_pp": -7.18,
"kind": "btts_n",
"model_pct": 45.7
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.87,
"early": 1.87,
"implied_closing_pct": 47.63,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 47.63,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.12,
"early": 3.12,
"implied_closing_pct": 28.55,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 28.55,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.74,
"early": 3.74,
"implied_closing_pct": 23.82,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 23.82,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.17,
"early": 2.17,
"implied_closing_pct": 42.29,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 42.29,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.59,
"early": 1.59,
"implied_closing_pct": 57.71,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 57.71,
"kind": "ou_u"
},
{
"closing": 1.93,
"early": 1.93,
"implied_closing_pct": 47.12,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 47.12,
"kind": "btts_y"
},
{
"closing": 1.72,
"early": 1.72,
"implied_closing_pct": 52.88,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 52.88,
"kind": "btts_n"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 7.2,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -5.7,
"ev": -0.3125,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 5.5,
"market_prob": 0.1818,
"market_prob_pct": 18.2,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.3
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.0
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.6
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.39,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.202,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.935,
"edge": 0.0138,
"edge_pp": 1.4,
"market_prob": 0.4749,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.543,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2222,
"best_odd": 1.75,
"edge": -0.0151,
"ev": -0.1076,
"implied_prob": 0.5251,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.51
},
"p_final": 0.4887,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0507,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0545,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.202,
"best_odd": 1.935,
"edge": 0.0138,
"ev": -0.0545,
"implied_prob": 0.4749,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.4887
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.182,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -18.2,
"text": "-18.2%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.0588,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 5.9,
"text": "+5.9%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0588,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"sort_key": 10202.92,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2047,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.18,
"edge": 0.0123,
"edge_pp": 1.2,
"market_prob": 0.4218,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2047,
"best_odd": 2.18,
"edge": 0.0123,
"ev": -0.0537,
"implied_prob": 0.4218,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4341
},
"p_final": 0.4341,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0508,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0537,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2251,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": -0.0136,
"ev": -0.1022,
"implied_prob": 0.5782,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5647
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0604,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 6.0,
"text": "+6.0%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1712,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -17.1,
"text": "-17.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0604,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10054.36,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Metal Kharkiv, but the model still strongly favours SK Poltava.",
"consensus_odds": 1.87,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1894,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -18.9,
"text": "-18.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4763,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0371,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.7,
"text": "-3.7%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.1,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2615,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-26.2%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "SK Poltava",
"sort_key": 1790.725,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "1/5",
"alert_breadth_note": "1/5 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -18.4%",
"alert_team": "Metal Kharkiv",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 8.2,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.17,
"hero_label": "SK Poltava",
"market_prob_pct": 47.6,
"market_team": "SK Poltava",
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"model_team": "SK Poltava",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.2,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Metal Kharkiv, but the model still strongly favours SK Poltava."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.2,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Metal Kharkiv, but the model still strongly favours SK Poltava."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0604,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1606,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 32,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates SK Poltava at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies SK Poltava as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Metal Kharkiv, but the model still strongly favours SK Poltava.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "SK Poltava",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side SK Poltava \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.14 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +16% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1581911 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.14 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "72 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "32 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Metal Kharkiv, but the model still strongly favours SK Poltava.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +16% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 72,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Metal Kharkiv, but the model still strongly favours SK Poltava.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1894,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.87,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4763,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.53475935828877,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2615,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-26.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "1/5",
"breadth_ratio": 0.2,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 2.0,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 72,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 8.17,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.17,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.21,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.39,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.39,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.39 \u00b7 Away xG 1.21 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -18.4,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -18.4%",
"steam_team": "Metal Kharkiv",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Metal Kharkiv, but the model still strongly favours SK Poltava.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.2,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Metal Kharkiv, but the model still strongly favours SK Poltava."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.2,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Metal Kharkiv, but the model still strongly favours SK Poltava."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0604,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1606,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 32,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates SK Poltava at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies SK Poltava as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Metal Kharkiv, but the model still strongly favours SK Poltava.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "SK Poltava",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side SK Poltava \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.14 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +16% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1581911 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.14 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "72 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "32 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Metal Kharkiv, but the model still strongly favours SK Poltava.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +16% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 72,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Metal Kharkiv, but the model still strongly favours SK Poltava.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1894,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.87,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4763,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.53475935828877,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2615,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-26.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Metal Kharkiv, but the model still strongly favours SK Poltava.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: SK Poltava 1.39 xG vs Metal Kharkiv 1.21 \u2192 SK Poltava 39.5%",
"Market: SK Poltava ~47.6% implied",
"Market Steam: Metal Kharkiv \u2193 -18.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours SK Poltava, but sharp money moved toward Metal Kharkiv.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -8.17,
"fair_prob": 39.46,
"label": "SK Poltava",
"market_prob": 47.63,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.96,
"fair_prob": 29.51,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.55,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.21,
"fair_prob": 31.03,
"label": "Metal Kharkiv",
"market_prob": 23.82,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.72,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.48,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.72,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.52,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.67,
"fair_prob": 54.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 47.63,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.67,
"fair_prob": 45.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 52.37,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -8.17,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.46,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "SK Poltava",
"market_prob_pct": 47.63,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Metal Kharkiv"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates SK Poltava\u0027s win probability at 47.6%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 39.5%, a difference of 8.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 8.17,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "SK Poltava",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 47.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-8.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -8.1,
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-8.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -8.1,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 72,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Metal Kharkiv, but the model still strongly favours SK Poltava. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: SK Poltava 1.39 xG vs Metal Kharkiv 1.21 \u2192 SK Poltava 39.5%",
"Market: SK Poltava ~47.6% implied",
"Market Steam: Metal Kharkiv \u2193 -18.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours SK Poltava, but sharp money moved toward Metal Kharkiv.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.17,
"hero_label": "SK Poltava",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Metal Kharkiv odds shortened \u2193 -18.4%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Metal Kharkiv, with odds shortening by 18.4%. Confirmation remains limited (1/5 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on SK Poltava. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Buying interest on Metal Kharkiv \u2014 odds shortened by 18.4%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on SK Poltava. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Metal Kharkiv, with odds shortening by 18.4%. Confirmation remains limited (1/5 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"Buying interest on Metal Kharkiv \u2014 odds shortened by 18.4%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices SK Poltava above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Metal Kharkiv has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 18.4%.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (1/5), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 8.17,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 8.4 pp (at 39.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 8.4,
"max_prob_pct": 39.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "SK Poltava",
"largest_gap_pp": -8.2,
"lead": "The closing market prices SK Poltava higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.2,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -8.17,
"edge_pp": -8.17,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.46,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "SK Poltava",
"market_prob_pct": 47.63,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.96,
"edge_pp": 0.96,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.51,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.55,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 7.21,
"edge_pp": 7.21,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.03,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Metal Kharkiv",
"market_prob_pct": 23.82,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Metal Kharkiv \u2014 odds shortened by 18.4%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers SK Poltava (47.6%).",
"Metal Kharkiv has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -18.4%, 1/5).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 SK Poltava, Market \u2192 SK Poltava, Recent sharp money \u2192 Metal Kharkiv.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 53.48,
"closing_odds": 1.87,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 53.48,
"entry_odds": 1.87,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 1,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -18.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -18.4
}
],
"books_total": 5,
"breadth_display": "1/5",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.54,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -18.4%",
"move_pct_abs": 18.4,
"move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
"move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 9h 11m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Fragmented repricing on Metal Kharkiv \u2014 1/5 books disagree; low-consensus noise.",
"Books are repricing in conflicting directions, so consensus remains weak."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -18.4,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.34",
"3.94",
"3.54"
],
"display": "4.34 \u2192 3.44 \u2192 3.54",
"move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
"move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 9h 11m",
"pick_team": "Metal Kharkiv",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.34"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.44"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.54"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.34,
3.74,
3.54
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,13.5 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.34"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.54"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.34"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.54"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.34,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Metal Kharkiv",
"ref_book": "1xBet",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.54,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -18.4%",
"open_odds": 4.34,
"summary": "Market moved toward Metal Kharkiv while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Metal Kharkiv",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "fragmented_market",
"signal_label": "Fragmented market",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/5",
"current_odds": 3.54,
"move_display": "\u2193 -18.4%",
"open_odds": 4.34,
"pick_team": "Metal Kharkiv",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_team_name": "Metal Kharkiv",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 8.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "metal-kharkiv",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Metal Kharkiv",
"away_team_id": 14437,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/14437.webp",
"away_team_name": "Metal Kharkiv",
"away_team_public_id": "2RYGFKuMict1y2",
"away_team_slug": "metal-kharkiv",
"country_code": "UA",
"country_display_name": "Ukraine",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ua.svg",
"country_id": 160,
"country_name": "Ukraine",
"fixture_id": 1581911,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Ukraine",
"home_team_display_name": "SK Poltava",
"home_team_id": 17165,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/17165.webp",
"home_team_name": "SK Poltava",
"home_team_public_id": "5wgGbhbvgUGJ5s",
"home_team_slug": "sk-poltava",
"ht.home_team_slug": "sk-poltava",
"league_country": "Ukraine",
"league_country_display": "Ukraine",
"league_display_name": "Persha Liga Ukraine",
"league_id": 334,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/334.webp",
"league_name": "Persha Liga Ukraine",
"league_public_id": "4wkMf1hs6IaUBB",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-20 08:00:00",
"public_id": "0V4EmTjfCtOEqY",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Poltava",
"venue_name": "Lokomotyv Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2675,
"best_odd": 3.74,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0193,
"ev": -0.0371,
"implied_prob": 0.2382,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2382,
"draw": 0.2855,
"home": 0.4763
},
"model_prob": 0.3103,
"p_final": 0.2575
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2958,
"best_odd": 3.12,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0027,
"ev": -0.1007,
"implied_prob": 0.2855,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2382,
"draw": 0.2855,
"home": 0.4763
},
"model_prob": 0.2947,
"p_final": 0.2882
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5267,
"best_odd": 1.87,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0429,
"ev": -0.1894,
"implied_prob": 0.4763,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2382,
"draw": 0.2855,
"home": 0.4763
},
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"p_final": 0.4335
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.74,
"edge": 0.0429,
"ev": 0.1606,
"implied_prob": 0.2674,
"model_prob": 0.3103
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.12,
"edge": -0.0258,
"ev": -0.0804,
"implied_prob": 0.3205,
"model_prob": 0.2947
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.87,
"edge": -0.1398,
"ev": -0.2615,
"implied_prob": 0.5348,
"model_prob": 0.3949
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2222,
"alpha_yes": 0.202,
"best_no_odd": 1.79,
"best_yes_odd": 1.95,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0667,
"edge_yes": 0.0667,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.182,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1076,
"ev_yes": 0.0588,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0545,
"implied_no": 0.5237,
"implied_yes": 0.4763,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2222,
"best_odd": 1.75,
"edge": -0.0151,
"ev": -0.1076,
"implied_prob": 0.5251,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.51
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.202,
"best_odd": 1.935,
"edge": 0.0138,
"ev": -0.0545,
"implied_prob": 0.4749,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.4887
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.51,
"p_final_yes": 0.4887,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2047,
"alpha_under": 0.2251,
"best_over_odd": 2.2,
"best_under_odd": 1.6,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.18,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.59,
"edge_over": 0.0572,
"edge_under": -0.0572,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0604,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0537,
"ev_under": -0.1712,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1022,
"implied_over": 0.4248,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4218,
"implied_under": 0.5752,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5782,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2047,
"best_odd": 2.18,
"edge": 0.0123,
"ev": -0.0537,
"implied_prob": 0.4218,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4341
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2251,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": -0.0136,
"ev": -0.1022,
"implied_prob": 0.5782,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5647
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4341,
"p_final_under": 0.5647,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0604,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1606,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0604,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.7
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.2,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Metal Kharkiv, but the model still strongly favours SK Poltava."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0604,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1606,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 32,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates SK Poltava at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies SK Poltava as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Metal Kharkiv, but the model still strongly favours SK Poltava.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "SK Poltava",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side SK Poltava \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.14 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +16% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1581911 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.14 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "72 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "32 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Metal Kharkiv, but the model still strongly favours SK Poltava.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +16% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 72,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Metal Kharkiv, but the model still strongly favours SK Poltava.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1894,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.87,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4763,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.53475935828877,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2615,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-26.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
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],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
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"xg_separation": {
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"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
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}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
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"draw_prob": 0.2947,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3949,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.18
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
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"markets": {
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"ev": -0.1894,
"implied_prob": 0.4763,
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"side": "home",
"side_label": "SK Poltava"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
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"edge": 0.0138,
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"mode": "market_first_btts",
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"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
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"best_odd": 1.75,
"edge": -0.0151,
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"p_final": 0.51
},
"p_final": 0.4887,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0545,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
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},
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"value_side": "yes"
},
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"over": {
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},
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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},
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"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1581911,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
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"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0604,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
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},
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},
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"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Metal Kharkiv",
"home": "SK Poltava"
},
"top_pick": {
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"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0588,
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"market": "btts",
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"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
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},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1894,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.87,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4763,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.53475935828877,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2615,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-26.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1581911,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T07:59:52.153160+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho SK Poltava & Metal Kharkiv!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Persha Liga Ukraine — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kulykiv | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 2 | Viktoriya Mykolaivka | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 3 | Oleksandria | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 4 | SK Poltava | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Prykarpattia | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Ahrobiznes Volochysk | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Yarud Mariupol | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 8 | Inhulets | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 9 | Metal Kharkiv | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 10 | Lokomotiv Kyiv | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 11 | Nyva Ternopil | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 12 | UCSA | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 13 | Kolos Kovalivka II | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 14 | Chernihiv | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 15 | Polissya II | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 16 | Probiy Horodenka | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 2 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kulykiv | 9 | 19 | 9 | +10 | 17 |
| 2 | Ahrobiznes Volochysk | 9 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 14 |
| 3 | SK Poltava | 9 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 15 |
| 4 | Oleksandria | 9 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 16 |
| 5 | Prykarpattia | 9 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 14 |
| 6 | Yarud Mariupol | 9 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 14 |
| 7 | UCSA | 9 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 10 |
| 8 | Viktoriya Mykolaivka | 9 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 17 |
| 9 | Metal Kharkiv | 9 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 13 |
| 10 | Polissya II | 8 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 6 |
| 11 | Inhulets | 8 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv Kyiv | 9 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 12 |
| 13 | Nyva Ternopil | 9 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 10 |
| 14 | Chernihiv | 8 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | Kolos Kovalivka II | 8 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 9 |
| 16 | Probiy Horodenka | 9 | 6 | 26 | -20 | 2 |
