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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (1 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Ahrobiznes Volochysk Ahrobiznes Volochysk ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.62
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Ahrobiznes Volochysk win · Ahrobiznes Volochysk 1–0 Oleksandria
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "21bfff388f5e6d500ef90a851ea31e218f8eef81b687a53278259ca67f632dac",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.26,
"away_win_prob": 0.3331,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2963,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.0,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.7,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.34,
"home_win_prob": 0.3706,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Oleksandria",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Oleksandria"
},
"away_xg": 1.26,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.1771,
"edge_gap": 0.0371,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.1934,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 33.3,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 37.1
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 4.58
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 4.58,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 5.17,
"market_odds": 4.58,
"model_odds": 2.7,
"overround": 12.9,
"prob_edge": 15.2,
"value_pct": 69.6,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 4,
"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 6,
"away_score_rate": 71.6,
"home_clean_sheet": 3,
"home_failed_to_score": 2,
"home_played": 6,
"home_score_rate": 73.8,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.26,
"home_expected": 1.34,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.4
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.9
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk or Draw",
"prob": 66.7
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk or Oleksandria",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Oleksandria",
"prob": 62.9
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk or Oleksandria",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 33.3,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 37.1,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.8,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.8,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 69.9,
"implied_prob": 21.8,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk Win",
"model_prob": 37.1,
"odds": 4.58
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Oleksandria",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 54.68,
"draw": 25.98,
"home": 19.34
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 11:29:48",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 11:03:25",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 19.34,
"gap_pp": 17.71,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 37.05
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.98,
"gap_pp": 3.62,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.6
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 54.68,
"gap_pp": -21.33,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 33.35
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 43.58,
"gap_pp": 4.62,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 56.42,
"gap_pp": -4.62,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 4.58,
"early": 4.58,
"implied_closing_pct": 19.34,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 19.34,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.41,
"early": 3.41,
"implied_closing_pct": 25.98,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 25.98,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 1.62,
"early": 1.62,
"implied_closing_pct": 54.68,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 54.68,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.11,
"early": 2.11,
"implied_closing_pct": 43.58,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 43.58,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.63,
"early": 1.63,
"implied_closing_pct": 56.42,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 56.42,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 17.7,
"kind": "1x2_h"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -4.2,
"ev": -0.25,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.0,
"market_prob": 0.1667,
"market_prob_pct": 16.7,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.4
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.9
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.34,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1947,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.01,
"edge": 0.0175,
"edge_pp": 1.8,
"market_prob": 0.4553,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2142,
"best_odd": 1.68,
"edge": -0.0192,
"ev": -0.1172,
"implied_prob": 0.5447,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5255
},
"p_final": 0.4728,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0955,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0498,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1947,
"best_odd": 2.01,
"edge": 0.0175,
"ev": -0.0498,
"implied_prob": 0.4553,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4728
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2128,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -21.3,
"text": "-21.3%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.1118,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 11.2,
"text": "+11.2%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1118,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10250.62,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2098,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0094,
"edge_pp": 0.9,
"market_prob": 0.437,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2098,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0094,
"ev": -0.0625,
"implied_prob": 0.437,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4464
},
"p_final": 0.4464,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.5,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0122,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0625,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2308,
"best_odd": 1.63,
"edge": -0.0104,
"ev": -0.0992,
"implied_prob": 0.563,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5526
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.017,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.7,
"text": "+1.7%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1557,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.6,
"text": "-15.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.017,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 5213.6,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "wait",
"authority_note": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"consensus_odds": 4.58,
"decision": "small_edge",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.005,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.5,
"text": "+0.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.1934,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.005,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.5,
"text": "+0.5%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+17.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.6969,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+69.7%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk",
"sort_key": 5204.0,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 21.4,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -21.37,
"hero_label": "Oleksandria",
"market_prob_pct": 19.3,
"market_team": "Oleksandria",
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"model_team": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 21.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 21.4,
"summary": "The market has repriced Ahrobiznes Volochysk, but the model still strongly favours Ahrobiznes Volochysk."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 21.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 21.4,
"summary": "The market has repriced Ahrobiznes Volochysk, but the model still strongly favours Ahrobiznes Volochysk."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1118,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.697,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 17,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ahrobiznes Volochysk at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 19.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ahrobiznes Volochysk as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 17.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Ahrobiznes Volochysk, but the model still strongly favours Ahrobiznes Volochysk.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Ahrobiznes Volochysk \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.11 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +70% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1581905 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.11 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +11.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "17 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Ahrobiznes Volochysk, but the model still strongly favours Ahrobiznes Volochysk.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +70% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.005,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.5%",
"consensus_odds": 4.58,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1934,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+17.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2183406113537118,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.6969,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+69.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"bet_status": "wait",
"books_breadth_display": "6/6",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (21 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 14.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 60,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 21.37,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 21.37,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.26,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.34,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.34,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.34 \u00b7 Away xG 1.26 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk",
"suppress_execution": true,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 17,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 3,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 3,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has repriced Ahrobiznes Volochysk, but the model still strongly favours Ahrobiznes Volochysk.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 21.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 21.4,
"summary": "The market has repriced Ahrobiznes Volochysk, but the model still strongly favours Ahrobiznes Volochysk."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 21.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 21.4,
"summary": "The market has repriced Ahrobiznes Volochysk, but the model still strongly favours Ahrobiznes Volochysk."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1118,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.697,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 17,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ahrobiznes Volochysk at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 19.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ahrobiznes Volochysk as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 17.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Ahrobiznes Volochysk, but the model still strongly favours Ahrobiznes Volochysk.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Ahrobiznes Volochysk \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.11 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +70% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1581905 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.11 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +11.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "17 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Ahrobiznes Volochysk, but the model still strongly favours Ahrobiznes Volochysk.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +70% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.005,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.5%",
"consensus_odds": 4.58,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1934,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+17.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2183406113537118,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.6969,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+69.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Ahrobiznes Volochysk 1.34 xG vs Oleksandria 1.26 \u2192 Ahrobiznes Volochysk 37.1%",
"Market: Oleksandria ~19.3% implied",
"Market Steam: Ahrobiznes Volochysk +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Ahrobiznes Volochysk, but market pricing diverges by 21 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 17.72,
"fair_prob": 37.06,
"label": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk",
"market_prob": 19.34,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.65,
"fair_prob": 29.63,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.98,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -21.37,
"fair_prob": 33.31,
"label": "Oleksandria",
"market_prob": 54.68,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.5,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 43.7,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.5,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 56.3,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.7,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 45.8,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.7,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 54.2,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -21.37,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.31,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Oleksandria",
"market_prob_pct": 54.68,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Oleksandria\u0027s win probability at 54.7%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 33.3%, a difference of 21.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 21.37,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 19.3,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+17.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 17.8,
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+17.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 17.8,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 60,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has repriced Ahrobiznes Volochysk, but the model still strongly favours Ahrobiznes Volochysk. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 17,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 3,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 3,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Ahrobiznes Volochysk 1.34 xG vs Oleksandria 1.26 \u2192 Ahrobiznes Volochysk 37.1%",
"Market: Oleksandria ~19.3% implied",
"Market Steam: Ahrobiznes Volochysk +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Ahrobiznes Volochysk, but market pricing diverges by 21 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -21.37,
"hero_label": "Oleksandria",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 21.37,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 3.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 3.8,
"max_prob_pct": 37.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "extreme",
"largest_gap_label": "Oleksandria",
"largest_gap_pp": -21.4,
"lead": "The closing market prices Oleksandria higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "extreme",
"max_gap_pp": 21.4,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 17.72,
"edge_pp": 17.72,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.06,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk",
"market_prob_pct": 19.34,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.65,
"edge_pp": 3.65,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.63,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.98,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -21.37,
"edge_pp": -21.37,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.31,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Oleksandria",
"market_prob_pct": 54.68,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Oleksandria (19.3%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Ahrobiznes Volochysk, Market \u2192 Oleksandria, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 61.73,
"closing_odds": 1.62,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 61.73,
"entry_odds": 1.62,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/6",
"current_odds": 4.58,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 4.58,
"pick_team": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_team_name": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 21.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "oleksandria",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Oleksandria",
"away_team_id": 3619,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3619.webp",
"away_team_name": "Oleksandria",
"away_team_public_id": "33Whqp0Vud464W",
"away_team_slug": "oleksandria",
"country_code": "UA",
"country_display_name": "Ukraine",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ua.svg",
"country_id": 160,
"country_name": "Ukraine",
"fixture_id": 1581905,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Ukraine",
"home_team_display_name": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk",
"home_team_id": 3620,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3620.webp",
"home_team_name": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk",
"home_team_public_id": "4mbQTmp3ZTltIW",
"home_team_slug": "ahrobiznes-volochysk",
"ht.home_team_slug": "ahrobiznes-volochysk",
"league_country": "Ukraine",
"league_country_display": "Ukraine",
"league_display_name": "Persha Liga Ukraine",
"league_id": 334,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/334.webp",
"league_name": "Persha Liga Ukraine",
"league_public_id": "4wkMf1hs6IaUBB",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-20 11:30:00",
"public_id": "5hwjLAUF4ztod5",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Volochysk",
"venue_name": "Yunist Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.408,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.087,
"ev": -0.2552,
"implied_prob": 0.5468,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5468,
"draw": 0.2598,
"home": 0.1934
},
"model_prob": 0.3335,
"p_final": 0.4598
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2837,
"best_odd": 3.41,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0103,
"ev": -0.0791,
"implied_prob": 0.2598,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5468,
"draw": 0.2598,
"home": 0.1934
},
"model_prob": 0.296,
"p_final": 0.27
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.1469,
"best_odd": 4.58,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.026,
"ev": 0.005,
"implied_prob": 0.1934,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5468,
"draw": 0.2598,
"home": 0.1934
},
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"p_final": 0.2194
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.2838,
"ev": -0.4598,
"implied_prob": 0.6173,
"model_prob": 0.3335
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.41,
"edge": 0.0027,
"ev": 0.0093,
"implied_prob": 0.2933,
"model_prob": 0.296
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 4.58,
"edge": 0.1522,
"ev": 0.697,
"implied_prob": 0.2183,
"model_prob": 0.3705
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2142,
"alpha_yes": 0.1947,
"best_no_odd": 1.73,
"best_yes_odd": 2.04,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.087,
"edge_yes": 0.087,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2128,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1172,
"ev_yes": 0.1118,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0498,
"implied_no": 0.542,
"implied_yes": 0.458,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2142,
"best_odd": 1.68,
"edge": -0.0192,
"ev": -0.1172,
"implied_prob": 0.5447,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5255
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1947,
"best_odd": 2.01,
"edge": 0.0175,
"ev": -0.0498,
"implied_prob": 0.4553,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4728
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.5255,
"p_final_yes": 0.4728,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2098,
"alpha_under": 0.2308,
"best_over_odd": 2.11,
"best_under_odd": 1.63,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.1,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.63,
"edge_over": 0.045,
"edge_under": -0.045,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.017,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0625,
"ev_under": -0.1557,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0992,
"implied_over": 0.437,
"implied_over_mf": 0.437,
"implied_under": 0.563,
"implied_under_mf": 0.563,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2098,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0094,
"ev": -0.0625,
"implied_prob": 0.437,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4464
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2308,
"best_odd": 1.63,
"edge": -0.0104,
"ev": -0.0992,
"implied_prob": 0.563,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5526
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4464,
"p_final_under": 0.5526,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1118,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.697,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1118,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"guard_capped": true,
"score": 3.0,
"score_before_guard": 6.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 3.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "wait",
"final_decision": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 21.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 21.4,
"summary": "The market has repriced Ahrobiznes Volochysk, but the model still strongly favours Ahrobiznes Volochysk."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1118,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.697,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 17,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ahrobiznes Volochysk at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 19.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ahrobiznes Volochysk as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 17.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Ahrobiznes Volochysk, but the model still strongly favours Ahrobiznes Volochysk.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Ahrobiznes Volochysk \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.11 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +70% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1581905 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.11 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +11.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "17 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Ahrobiznes Volochysk, but the model still strongly favours Ahrobiznes Volochysk.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +70% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.005,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.5%",
"consensus_odds": 4.58,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1934,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+17.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2183406113537118,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.6969,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+69.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.296,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3705,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.08
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"guard_active": true,
"guard_level": "extreme",
"guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 4.58,
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.026,
"ev": 0.005,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.1934,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1947,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.01,
"edge": 0.0175,
"market_prob": 0.4553,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2142,
"best_odd": 1.68,
"edge": -0.0192,
"ev": -0.1172,
"implied_prob": 0.5447,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5255
},
"p_final": 0.4728,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0498,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1947,
"best_odd": 2.01,
"edge": 0.0175,
"ev": -0.0498,
"implied_prob": 0.4553,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4728
}
},
"edge": 0.087,
"ev": 0.1118,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.458,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2098,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0094,
"market_prob": 0.437,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2098,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0094,
"ev": -0.0625,
"implied_prob": 0.437,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4464
},
"p_final": 0.4464,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0625,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2308,
"best_odd": 1.63,
"edge": -0.0104,
"ev": -0.0992,
"implied_prob": 0.563,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5526
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.045,
"ev": 0.017,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.437,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1581905,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1118,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3335,
"draw": 0.296,
"home": 0.3705
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Oleksandria",
"home": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.060931,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1118,
"implied_prob": 0.458,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.005,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.5%",
"consensus_odds": 4.58,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1934,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+17.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2183406113537118,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.6969,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+69.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1581905,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T11:29:51.717966+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Ahrobiznes Volochysk & Oleksandria!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Persha Liga Ukraine — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kulykiv | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 2 | Viktoriya Mykolaivka | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 3 | Oleksandria | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 4 | SK Poltava | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Prykarpattia | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Ahrobiznes Volochysk | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Yarud Mariupol | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 8 | Inhulets | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 9 | Metal Kharkiv | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 10 | Lokomotiv Kyiv | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 11 | Nyva Ternopil | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 12 | UCSA | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 13 | Kolos Kovalivka II | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 14 | Chernihiv | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 15 | Polissya II | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 16 | Probiy Horodenka | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 2 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kulykiv | 9 | 19 | 9 | +10 | 17 |
| 2 | Ahrobiznes Volochysk | 9 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 14 |
| 3 | SK Poltava | 9 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 15 |
| 4 | Oleksandria | 9 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 16 |
| 5 | Prykarpattia | 9 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 14 |
| 6 | Yarud Mariupol | 9 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 14 |
| 7 | UCSA | 9 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 10 |
| 8 | Viktoriya Mykolaivka | 9 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 17 |
| 9 | Metal Kharkiv | 9 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 13 |
| 10 | Polissya II | 8 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 6 |
| 11 | Inhulets | 8 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv Kyiv | 9 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 12 |
| 13 | Nyva Ternopil | 9 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 10 |
| 14 | Chernihiv | 8 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | Kolos Kovalivka II | 8 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 9 |
| 16 | Probiy Horodenka | 9 | 6 | 26 | -20 | 2 |
