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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (4 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 CA La Paz Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-2 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.32
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · Leones Negros UDG 2–2 CA La Paz
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
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"content_hash": "7d1ad8b7c15bb08fa603ac8cd135ff4376f1823b2cc2230a26c41f8e09dab361",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.34,
"away_win_prob": 0.3706,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2963,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.7,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.0,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.26,
"home_win_prob": 0.3331,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or CA La Paz",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "CA La Paz"
},
"away_xg": 1.34,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "CA La Paz",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0331,
"edge_gap": 0.0371,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3374,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 37.1,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 33.3
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.82
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.82,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "CA La Paz Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.96,
"market_odds": 2.82,
"model_odds": 2.7,
"overround": 5.1,
"prob_edge": 1.6,
"value_pct": 4.4,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 3,
"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 7,
"away_score_rate": 73.8,
"home_clean_sheet": 2,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 6,
"home_score_rate": 71.6,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.34,
"home_expected": 1.26,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.9
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Leones Negros UDG or Draw",
"prob": 62.9
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Leones Negros UDG or CA La Paz",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or CA La Paz",
"prob": 66.7
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Leones Negros UDG or CA La Paz",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 37.1,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 33.3,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "CA La Paz"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 2.1,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 2.3,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 11.6,
"implied_prob": 26.5,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.6,
"odds": 3.77
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "CA La Paz",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 33.74,
"draw": 25.24,
"home": 41.02
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-13 18:00:15",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-13 17:31:18",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Leones Negros UDG",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 41.02,
"gap_pp": -7.67,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 33.35
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.24,
"gap_pp": 4.36,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.6
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 33.74,
"gap_pp": 3.31,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 37.05
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 64.49,
"gap_pp": -16.29,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 35.51,
"gap_pp": 16.29,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.32,
"early": 2.32,
"implied_closing_pct": 41.02,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 41.02,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.77,
"early": 3.77,
"implied_closing_pct": 25.24,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 25.24,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.82,
"early": 2.82,
"implied_closing_pct": 33.74,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 33.74,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.47,
"early": 1.47,
"implied_closing_pct": 64.49,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 64.49,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.67,
"early": 2.67,
"implied_closing_pct": 35.51,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 35.51,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 16.3,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -0.8,
"ev": -0.0625,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.5,
"market_prob": 0.1333,
"market_prob_pct": 13.3,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.4
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.9
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.26,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1481,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.445,
"edge": 0.0214,
"edge_pp": 2.1,
"market_prob": 0.3739,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2037,
"best_odd": 1.46,
"edge": -0.0294,
"ev": -0.1287,
"implied_prob": 0.6261,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5968
},
"p_final": 0.3952,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2665,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0337,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1481,
"best_odd": 2.445,
"edge": 0.0214,
"ev": -0.0337,
"implied_prob": 0.3739,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3952
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.224,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -22.4,
"text": "-22.4%"
},
"ev_under": 0.3831,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 38.3,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.3831,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10494.79,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1639,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.42,
"edge": 0.0145,
"edge_pp": 1.5,
"market_prob": 0.3665,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1639,
"best_odd": 2.42,
"edge": 0.0145,
"ev": -0.078,
"implied_prob": 0.3665,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.381
},
"p_final": 0.381,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1011,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.078,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2254,
"best_odd": 1.4,
"edge": -0.0199,
"ev": -0.141,
"implied_prob": 0.6335,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6136
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2604,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 26.0,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1661,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.6,
"text": "-16.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.2604,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10234.36,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.82,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0085,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.9,
"text": "-0.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3374,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0024,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.2,
"text": "-0.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0448,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+4.5%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "CA La Paz",
"sort_key": 2199.808,
"tier": "pass"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "7/13",
"alert_breadth_note": "7/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +12.2%",
"alert_team": "Leones Negros UDG",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 7.7,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -7.71,
"hero_label": "Leones Negros UDG",
"market_prob_pct": 33.7,
"market_team": "Leones Negros UDG",
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"model_team": "CA La Paz",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 36,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (CA La Paz)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (CA La Paz)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3831,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3831,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates CA La Paz at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 33.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies CA La Paz as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "CA La Paz",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +38.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +38.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+38.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (CA La Paz).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0085,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.82,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3374,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3546099290780142,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0448,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+4.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "7/13",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5384615384615384,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.4,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 84,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 7.71,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.71,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.34,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.26,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.34,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.26 \u00b7 Away xG 1.34 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.2,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +12.2%",
"steam_team": "Leones Negros UDG",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 83,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 83,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (CA La Paz).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (CA La Paz)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (CA La Paz)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3831,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3831,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates CA La Paz at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 33.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies CA La Paz as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "CA La Paz",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +38.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +38.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+38.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (CA La Paz).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0085,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.82,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3374,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3546099290780142,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0448,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+4.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Leones Negros UDG 1.26 xG vs CA La Paz 1.34 \u2192 CA La Paz 37.1%",
"Market: Leones Negros UDG ~33.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Leones Negros UDG odds \u2191 +12.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean CA La Paz with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -7.71,
"fair_prob": 33.31,
"label": "Leones Negros UDG",
"market_prob": 41.02,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.39,
"fair_prob": 29.63,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.24,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.32,
"fair_prob": 37.06,
"label": "CA La Paz",
"market_prob": 33.74,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.78,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 61.98,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.78,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 38.02,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.29,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 63.79,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.29,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 36.21,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -7.71,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.31,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Leones Negros UDG",
"market_prob_pct": 41.02,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Leones Negros UDG"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Leones Negros UDG\u0027s win probability at 41.0%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 33.3%, a difference of 7.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 7.71,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "CA La Paz",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 33.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+3.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 3.4,
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+3.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 3.4,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 84,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "CA La Paz \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 83,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 83,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Leones Negros UDG 1.26 xG vs CA La Paz 1.34 \u2192 CA La Paz 37.1%",
"Market: Leones Negros UDG ~33.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Leones Negros UDG odds \u2191 +12.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean CA La Paz with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -7.71,
"hero_label": "Leones Negros UDG",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Leones Negros UDG odds lengthened \u2191 +12.2%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Leones Negros UDG. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Leones Negros UDG.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Leones Negros UDG. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Leones Negros UDG."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Leones Negros UDG above the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Leones Negros UDG (\u2191 +12.2%) aligns with the pricing gap."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 7.71,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 3.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 3.8,
"max_prob_pct": 37.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Leones Negros UDG",
"largest_gap_pp": -7.7,
"lead": "The closing market prices Leones Negros UDG higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.7,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -7.71,
"edge_pp": -7.71,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.31,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Leones Negros UDG",
"market_prob_pct": 41.02,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.39,
"edge_pp": 4.39,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.63,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.24,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.32,
"edge_pp": 3.32,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.06,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "CA La Paz",
"market_prob_pct": 33.74,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Leones Negros UDG.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Leones Negros UDG (33.7%).",
"Leones Negros UDG odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +12.2%, 7/13) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 CA La Paz, Market \u2192 Leones Negros UDG, while Leones Negros UDG odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 43.1,
"closing_odds": 2.32,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 43.1,
"entry_odds": 2.32,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.4
}
],
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "7/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.3,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +12.2%",
"move_pct_abs": 12.2,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 81h 25m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Leones Negros UDG (12.2%, 7/13) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Modest lengthening \u2014 treat as drift tracking rather than steam."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.2,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.32",
"2.18",
"2.05"
],
"display": "2.32 \u2192 1.94 \u2192 2.30",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 81h 25m",
"pick_team": "Leones Negros UDG",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.32"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.94"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.30"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.05,
2.32,
2.3
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,1.3",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.05"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.05"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.32"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.30"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.05,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Leones Negros UDG",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.3,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +12.2%",
"open_odds": 2.05,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Leones Negros UDG",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 36,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/13",
"current_odds": 2.3,
"move_display": "\u2191 +12.2%",
"open_odds": 2.05,
"pick_team": "Leones Negros UDG",
"steam_score": 36,
"steam_team_name": "Leones Negros UDG",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 7.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "ca-la-paz",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "CA La Paz",
"away_team_id": 19024,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/19024.webp",
"away_team_name": "CA La Paz",
"away_team_public_id": "3KTiR8lfIFCfuV",
"away_team_slug": "ca-la-paz",
"country_code": "MX",
"country_display_name": "Mexico",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/mx.svg",
"country_id": 107,
"country_name": "Mexico",
"fixture_id": 1581420,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Mexico",
"home_team_display_name": "Leones Negros UDG",
"home_team_id": 2307,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2307.webp",
"home_team_name": "Leones Negros UDG",
"home_team_public_id": "119HrNBU3BMVNU",
"home_team_slug": "leones-negros-udg",
"ht.home_team_slug": "leones-negros-udg",
"league_country": "Mexico",
"league_country_display": "Mexico",
"league_display_name": "Liga de Expansi\u00f3n MX",
"league_id": 263,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/263.webp",
"league_name": "Liga de Expansi\u00f3n MX",
"league_public_id": "37VzxtGVs2y4fb",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-13 18:00:00",
"public_id": "49WX1boc81iNLP",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Guadalajara",
"venue_name": "Estadio Jalisco"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4277,
"best_odd": 2.82,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0142,
"ev": -0.0085,
"implied_prob": 0.3374,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3374,
"draw": 0.2524,
"home": 0.4102
},
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"p_final": 0.3516
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2804,
"best_odd": 3.77,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0122,
"ev": -0.0024,
"implied_prob": 0.2524,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3374,
"draw": 0.2524,
"home": 0.4102
},
"model_prob": 0.296,
"p_final": 0.2646
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3982,
"best_odd": 2.32,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0305,
"ev": -0.1193,
"implied_prob": 0.4102,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3374,
"draw": 0.2524,
"home": 0.4102
},
"model_prob": 0.3335,
"p_final": 0.3796
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.82,
"edge": 0.0159,
"ev": 0.0449,
"implied_prob": 0.3546,
"model_prob": 0.3705
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.77,
"edge": 0.0307,
"ev": 0.1159,
"implied_prob": 0.2653,
"model_prob": 0.296
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.32,
"edge": -0.0976,
"ev": -0.2263,
"implied_prob": 0.431,
"model_prob": 0.3335
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1639,
"alpha_yes": 0.2254,
"best_no_odd": 2.77,
"best_yes_odd": 1.53,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0929,
"edge_yes": -0.0929,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2604,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.078,
"ev_yes": -0.1661,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.141,
"implied_no": 0.3621,
"implied_yes": 0.6379,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1639,
"best_odd": 2.42,
"edge": 0.0145,
"ev": -0.078,
"implied_prob": 0.3665,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.381
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2254,
"best_odd": 1.4,
"edge": -0.0199,
"ev": -0.141,
"implied_prob": 0.6335,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6136
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"p_final_no": 0.381,
"p_final_yes": 0.6136,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2037,
"alpha_under": 0.1481,
"best_over_odd": 1.61,
"best_under_odd": 2.67,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.46,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.445,
"edge_over": -0.1378,
"edge_under": 0.1378,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.224,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1287,
"ev_under": 0.3831,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0337,
"implied_over": 0.6198,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6261,
"implied_under": 0.3802,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3739,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2037,
"best_odd": 1.46,
"edge": -0.0294,
"ev": -0.1287,
"implied_prob": 0.6261,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5968
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1481,
"best_odd": 2.445,
"edge": 0.0214,
"ev": -0.0337,
"implied_prob": 0.3739,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3952
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5968,
"p_final_under": 0.3952,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3831,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3831,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3831,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.9
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (CA La Paz)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3831,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3831,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates CA La Paz at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 33.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies CA La Paz as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "CA La Paz",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +38.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +38.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+38.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (CA La Paz).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0085,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.82,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3374,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3546099290780142,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0448,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+4.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.296,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3705,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.08
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.82,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0142,
"ev": -0.0085,
"implied_prob": 0.3374,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "CA La Paz"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1639,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.42,
"edge": 0.0145,
"market_prob": 0.3665,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1639,
"best_odd": 2.42,
"edge": 0.0145,
"ev": -0.078,
"implied_prob": 0.3665,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.381
},
"p_final": 0.381,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.078,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2254,
"best_odd": 1.4,
"edge": -0.0199,
"ev": -0.141,
"implied_prob": 0.6335,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6136
}
},
"edge": 0.0929,
"ev": 0.2604,
"implied_prob": 0.3621,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1481,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.445,
"edge": 0.0214,
"market_prob": 0.3739,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2037,
"best_odd": 1.46,
"edge": -0.0294,
"ev": -0.1287,
"implied_prob": 0.6261,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5968
},
"p_final": 0.3952,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0337,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1481,
"best_odd": 2.445,
"edge": 0.0214,
"ev": -0.0337,
"implied_prob": 0.3739,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3952
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1378,
"ev": 0.3831,
"implied_prob": 0.3802,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1581420,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3831,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3705,
"draw": 0.296,
"home": 0.3335
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2604,
"implied_prob": 0.3621,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2604,
"implied_prob": 0.3621,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "CA La Paz",
"home": "Leones Negros UDG"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.138912,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3831,
"implied_prob": 0.3802,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0085,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.82,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3374,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3546099290780142,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0448,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+4.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1581420,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-13T18:00:18.301951+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Leones Negros UDG & CA La Paz!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Liga de Expansión MX — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monarcas Morelia | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 21 |
| 2 | CA La Paz | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 |
| 3 | Leones Negros UDG | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 |
| 4 | Mineros de Zacatecas | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 5 | Piratas | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 6 | Correcaminos UAT | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 7 | Cancún | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 8 | Tapatío | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 | Dorados | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| 10 | Venados FC | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 11 | Durango | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 12 | CDS Tampico Madero | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 13 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 14 | Tlaxcala FC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 15 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 7 |
| 16 | Tepatitlán FC | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CA La Paz | 10 | 23 | 11 | +12 | 20 |
| 2 | Venados FC | 9 | 22 | 19 | +3 | 13 |
| 3 | Leones Negros UDG | 10 | 21 | 13 | +8 | 20 |
| 4 | Mineros de Zacatecas | 10 | 21 | 15 | +6 | 17 |
| 5 | Monarcas Morelia | 9 | 19 | 9 | +10 | 21 |
| 6 | Correcaminos UAT | 10 | 19 | 18 | +1 | 15 |
| 7 | Cancún | 9 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 14 |
| 8 | Dorados | 9 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 13 |
| 9 | Tapatío | 9 | 17 | 14 | +3 | 14 |
| 10 | Tlaxcala FC | 9 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 8 |
| 11 | Piratas | 10 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 15 |
| 12 | CDS Tampico Madero | 10 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 11 |
| 13 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 10 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 7 |
| 14 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 10 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 10 |
| 15 | Durango | 9 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 11 |
| 16 | Tepatitlán FC | 9 | 5 | 28 | -23 | 3 |
