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Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (0 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Không ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 draw Vẽ tranh ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 0-0, 0-1, 1-0, 1-1, 0-2 0-0 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.03
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · Montpellier W 0–0 Marseille W
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 0.89,
"away_win_prob": 0.3237,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.643,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.357,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.3691,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.09,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 2.71,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.26,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 0.86,
"home_win_prob": 0.3072,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.256,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.744
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Montpellier W or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "30%",
"percent_draw": "35%",
"percent_home": "35%",
"winner_name": "Montpellier W"
},
"away_xg": 0.89,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": null,
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.1086,
"edge_gap": 0.0454,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.2606,
"model_prob": 0.3692,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 32.4,
"draw": 36.9,
"home": 30.7
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": null
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 1,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 2,
"away_score_rate": 58.9,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 2,
"home_score_rate": 57.7,
"no_prob": 64.3,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 64.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 35.7
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 0.89,
"home_expected": 0.86,
"scores": [
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 17.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 15.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 14.9
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.3
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 6.9
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Montpellier W or Draw",
"prob": 67.6
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Montpellier W or Marseille W",
"prob": 63.1
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Marseille W",
"prob": 69.3
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or Marseille W",
"pick_prob": 69.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 32.4,
"draw_pct": 36.9,
"home_pct": 30.7,
"lean_key": "draw",
"lean_label": "Draw"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 1.75,
"away_avg_scored": 1.5,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 2.5,
"over_prob": 25.6,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 74.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 1.75,
"under_prob": 74.4
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 29.9,
"implied_prob": 28.4,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 36.9,
"odds": 3.52
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Marseille W",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 45.19,
"draw": 26.06,
"home": 28.75
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 18:59:59",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 18:31:20",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Montpellier W",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.75,
"gap_pp": 1.94,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 30.69
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.06,
"gap_pp": 10.86,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 36.92
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 45.19,
"gap_pp": -12.8,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 32.38
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 51.06,
"gap_pp": -25.46,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 25.6
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 48.94,
"gap_pp": 25.46,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 74.4
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 3.19,
"early": 3.19,
"implied_closing_pct": 28.75,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 28.75,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.52,
"early": 3.52,
"implied_closing_pct": 26.06,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 26.06,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.03,
"early": 2.03,
"implied_closing_pct": 45.19,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 45.19,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.85,
"early": 1.85,
"implied_closing_pct": 51.06,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 51.06,
"kind": "ou_o"
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{
"closing": 1.93,
"early": 1.93,
"implied_closing_pct": 48.94,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 48.94,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 25.5,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 7.4,
"ev": 0.74,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "0-0",
"market_odds": 10.0,
"market_prob": 0.1,
"market_prob_pct": 10.0,
"model_prob": 0.174,
"model_prob_pct": 17.4,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 17.4
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "0-0",
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},
{
"label": "0-1",
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{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 14.9
},
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.3
},
{
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 6.9
}
]
},
"home_xg": 0.86,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1404,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.86,
"edge": 0.0352,
"edge_pp": 3.5,
"market_prob": 0.4932,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.744,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1404,
"best_odd": 1.81,
"edge": -0.0352,
"ev": -0.1464,
"implied_prob": 0.5068,
"model_prob": 0.256,
"p_final": 0.4716
},
"p_final": 0.5284,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 25.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3838,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0172,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1404,
"best_odd": 1.86,
"edge": 0.0352,
"ev": -0.0172,
"implied_prob": 0.4932,
"model_prob": 0.744,
"p_final": 0.5284
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.5136,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -51.4,
"text": "-51.4%"
},
"ev_under": 0.4359,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 43.6,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.4359,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 25.6,
"sort_key": 10542.31,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 74.4,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1614,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.005,
"edge": 0.0304,
"edge_pp": 3.0,
"market_prob": 0.4544,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.643,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1614,
"best_odd": 2.005,
"edge": 0.0304,
"ev": -0.0279,
"implied_prob": 0.4544,
"model_prob": 0.643,
"p_final": 0.4848
},
"p_final": 0.4848,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 18.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2892,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0279,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1775,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0335,
"ev": -0.1448,
"implied_prob": 0.5456,
"model_prob": 0.357,
"p_final": 0.5121
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.3181,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 31.8,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_yes": -0.3574,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -35.7,
"text": "-35.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.3181,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no_prob": 64.3,
"sort_key": 10286.29,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 35.7
},
{
"authority_action": "monitor",
"authority_note": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"consensus_odds": 3.52,
"decision": "small_edge",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0133,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.3,
"text": "+1.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2606,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0133,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.3,
"text": "+1.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3692,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2996,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+30.0%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "draw",
"sort_key": 5210.64,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 832.2,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "0-0",
"top_prob": 17.4
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"alert_team": "Montpellier W",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 12.8,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.82,
"hero_label": "Marseille W",
"market_prob_pct": 26.1,
"market_team": "Marseille W",
"model_prob_pct": 36.9,
"model_team": "Draw",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 57,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Draw)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Draw)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4359,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4359,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 56,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Draw at 36.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 26.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Draw as the value side (36.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Draw",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +43.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +43.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +43.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "70 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "56 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+43.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Draw).",
"Decision strength: 4.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 70,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0133,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.3%",
"consensus_odds": 3.52,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2606,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3692,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2840909090909091,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2996,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+30.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -34.1,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.03 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.03
}
}
},
"bet_status": "monitor",
"books_breadth_display": "8/8",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (13 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 70,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 12.82,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 12.82,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 0.89,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -34.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 0.86,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 0.89,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 0.86 \u00b7 Away xG 0.89 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -34%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.1,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"steam_team": "Montpellier W",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 56,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "monitor",
"label": "Monitor - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Draw)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Draw)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4359,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4359,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 56,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Draw at 36.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 26.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Draw as the value side (36.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Draw",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +43.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +43.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +43.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "70 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "56 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+43.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Draw).",
"Decision strength: 4.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 70,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0133,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.3%",
"consensus_odds": 3.52,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2606,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3692,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2840909090909091,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2996,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+30.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -34.1,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.03 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.03
}
}
},
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"tier": "monitor"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Montpellier W 0.86 xG vs Marseille W 0.89 \u2192 Draw 36.9%",
"Market: Marseille W ~26.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Montpellier W odds \u2191 +11.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Draw with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 1.97,
"fair_prob": 30.72,
"label": "Montpellier W",
"market_prob": 28.75,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.85,
"fair_prob": 36.91,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.06,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.82,
"fair_prob": 32.37,
"label": "Marseille W",
"market_prob": 45.19,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -25.03,
"fair_prob": 25.6,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 50.63,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 25.03,
"fair_prob": 74.4,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 49.37,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -18.22,
"fair_prob": 35.7,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 53.92,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 18.22,
"fair_prob": 64.3,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 46.08,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -12.82,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.37,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Marseille W",
"market_prob_pct": 45.19,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Montpellier W"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Marseille W\u0027s win probability at 45.2%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 32.4%, a difference of 12.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 12.82,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Draw",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 26.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+10.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 10.8,
"model_prob_pct": 36.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+10.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 10.8,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 70,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Draw \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 56,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "monitor",
"label": "Monitor - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Montpellier W 0.86 xG vs Marseille W 0.89 \u2192 Draw 36.9%",
"Market: Marseille W ~26.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Montpellier W odds \u2191 +11.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Draw with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.82,
"hero_label": "Marseille W",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Montpellier W odds lengthened \u2191 +11.1%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, Montpellier W has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Marseille W than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from Montpellier W \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.1% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Marseille W than the current fair estimate.",
"However, Montpellier W has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Montpellier W \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.1% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Marseille W more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Montpellier W has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (8/8) supports the current market view on Montpellier W."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 12.82,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 4.5 pp (at 36.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 4.5,
"max_prob_pct": 36.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Marseille W",
"largest_gap_pp": -12.8,
"lead": "The closing market prices Marseille W higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 12.8,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 1.97,
"edge_pp": 1.97,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.72,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Montpellier W",
"market_prob_pct": 28.75,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 10.85,
"edge_pp": 10.85,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.91,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.06,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": -12.82,
"edge_pp": -12.82,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.37,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Marseille W",
"market_prob_pct": 45.19,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Montpellier W \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.1% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Marseille W (26.1%).",
"However, Montpellier W has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +11.1%, 8/8) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Draw, Market \u2192 Marseille W, while Montpellier W odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 49.26,
"closing_odds": 2.03,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 49.26,
"entry_odds": 2.03,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "HT",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 HT",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +33.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 33.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +31.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 31.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +30.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 30.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +26.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 26.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +21.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +16.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.3
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "8/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.0,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 11.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 29h 5m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Montpellier W (11.1%, 8/8) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.19",
"2.95",
"2.70"
],
"display": "3.25 \u2192 2.39 \u2192 3.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 29h 5m",
"pick_team": "Montpellier W",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.25"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.39"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.7,
3.19,
3.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,7.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.70"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.70"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.19"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.7,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 8/8 sportsbooks on Montpellier W",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Montpellier W",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.0,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"open_odds": 2.7,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Montpellier W",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 57,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/8",
"current_odds": 3.0,
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"open_odds": 2.7,
"pick_team": "Montpellier W",
"steam_score": 57,
"steam_team_name": "Montpellier W",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 12.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "marseille-w",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Marseille W",
"away_team_id": 1673,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1673.webp",
"away_team_name": "Marseille W",
"away_team_public_id": "4WLT7eSufaVOfC",
"away_team_slug": "marseille-w",
"country_code": "FR",
"country_display_name": "France",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/fr.svg",
"country_id": 56,
"country_name": "France",
"fixture_id": 1580934,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "France",
"home_team_display_name": "Montpellier W",
"home_team_id": 1675,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1675.webp",
"home_team_name": "Montpellier W",
"home_team_public_id": "0UGpnaleS6nz7l",
"home_team_slug": "montpellier-w",
"ht.home_team_slug": "montpellier-w",
"league_country": "France",
"league_country_display": "France",
"league_display_name": "Division 1 F\u00e9minine",
"league_id": 64,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/64.webp",
"league_name": "Division 1 F\u00e9minine",
"league_public_id": "1FUMojmr4MXNn5",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 19:00:00",
"public_id": "09tr5ESPzUA8V3",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Halftime",
"status_short": "HT",
"venue_city": "Montpellier",
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3636,
"best_odd": 2.03,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0466,
"ev": -0.1772,
"implied_prob": 0.4519,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4519,
"draw": 0.2606,
"home": 0.2875
},
"model_prob": 0.3238,
"p_final": 0.4053
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2511,
"best_odd": 3.52,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0273,
"ev": 0.0133,
"implied_prob": 0.2606,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4519,
"draw": 0.2606,
"home": 0.2875
},
"model_prob": 0.3692,
"p_final": 0.2879
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2913,
"best_odd": 3.19,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0056,
"ev": -0.0647,
"implied_prob": 0.2875,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4519,
"draw": 0.2606,
"home": 0.2875
},
"model_prob": 0.3069,
"p_final": 0.2932
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.03,
"edge": -0.1688,
"ev": -0.3426,
"implied_prob": 0.4926,
"model_prob": 0.3238
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.52,
"edge": 0.0851,
"ev": 0.2997,
"implied_prob": 0.2841,
"model_prob": 0.3692
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.19,
"edge": -0.0065,
"ev": -0.0209,
"implied_prob": 0.3135,
"model_prob": 0.3069
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1614,
"alpha_yes": 0.1775,
"best_no_odd": 2.05,
"best_yes_odd": 1.8,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1822,
"edge_yes": -0.1822,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.3181,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0279,
"ev_yes": -0.3574,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1448,
"implied_no": 0.4608,
"implied_yes": 0.5392,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1614,
"best_odd": 2.005,
"edge": 0.0304,
"ev": -0.0279,
"implied_prob": 0.4544,
"model_prob": 0.643,
"p_final": 0.4848
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1775,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0335,
"ev": -0.1448,
"implied_prob": 0.5456,
"model_prob": 0.357,
"p_final": 0.5121
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.4848,
"p_final_yes": 0.5121,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1404,
"alpha_under": 0.1404,
"best_over_odd": 1.9,
"best_under_odd": 1.93,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.81,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.86,
"edge_over": -0.2503,
"edge_under": 0.2503,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.5136,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1464,
"ev_under": 0.4359,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0172,
"implied_over": 0.5063,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5068,
"implied_under": 0.4937,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4932,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1404,
"best_odd": 1.81,
"edge": -0.0352,
"ev": -0.1464,
"implied_prob": 0.5068,
"model_prob": 0.256,
"p_final": 0.4716
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1404,
"best_odd": 1.86,
"edge": 0.0352,
"ev": -0.0172,
"implied_prob": 0.4932,
"model_prob": 0.744,
"p_final": 0.5284
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4716,
"p_final_under": 0.5284,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 1.75,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4359,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4359,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.4359,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.8
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "monitor",
"final_decision": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Draw)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4359,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4359,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 56,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Draw at 36.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 26.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Draw as the value side (36.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Draw",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +43.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +43.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +43.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "70 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "56 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+43.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Draw).",
"Decision strength: 4.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 70,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0133,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.3%",
"consensus_odds": 3.52,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2606,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3692,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2840909090909091,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2996,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+30.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -34.1,
"reasons": [
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],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.03
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u6781\u7aef\u9632\u5b88\uff08\u4f4e\u8fdb\u7403\uff09",
"scoring_type": "defensive",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.357,
"draw_prob": 0.3692,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3692,
"over_prob": 0.256,
"total_xg": 1.75,
"under_prob": 0.744,
"xg_diff": 0.03
},
"type": "defensive",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.52,
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0273,
"ev": 0.0133,
"implied_prob": 0.2606,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3692,
"side": "draw",
"side_label": "draw"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1614,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.005,
"edge": 0.0304,
"market_prob": 0.4544,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
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"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
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"best_odd": 2.005,
"edge": 0.0304,
"ev": -0.0279,
"implied_prob": 0.4544,
"model_prob": 0.643,
"p_final": 0.4848
},
"p_final": 0.4848,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0279,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1775,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0335,
"ev": -0.1448,
"implied_prob": 0.5456,
"model_prob": 0.357,
"p_final": 0.5121
}
},
"edge": 0.1822,
"ev": 0.3181,
"implied_prob": 0.4608,
"model_prob": 0.643,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1404,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.86,
"edge": 0.0352,
"market_prob": 0.4932,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.744,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1404,
"best_odd": 1.81,
"edge": -0.0352,
"ev": -0.1464,
"implied_prob": 0.5068,
"model_prob": 0.256,
"p_final": 0.4716
},
"p_final": 0.5284,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0172,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1404,
"best_odd": 1.86,
"edge": 0.0352,
"ev": -0.0172,
"implied_prob": 0.4932,
"model_prob": 0.744,
"p_final": 0.5284
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.2503,
"ev": 0.4359,
"implied_prob": 0.4937,
"model_prob": 0.744,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1580934,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.4359,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3238,
"draw": 0.3692,
"home": 0.3069
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3181,
"implied_prob": 0.4608,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.643,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3181,
"implied_prob": 0.4608,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.643,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Marseille W",
"home": "Montpellier W"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.421602,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4359,
"implied_prob": 0.4937,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.744,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0133,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.3%",
"consensus_odds": 3.52,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2606,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3692,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2840909090909091,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2996,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+30.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1580934,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T20:04:31.450802+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Montpellier W & Marseille W!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Division 1 Féminine — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lyon W | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Paris Saint-Germain Nữ | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 3 | Marseille W | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Paris FC Nữ | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Montpellier W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | FC Fleury 91 W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Strasbourg Nữ | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Le Havre W | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Saint-Malo Nữ | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | Lens W | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 11 | Toulouse Nữ | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 12 | Nantes W | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lyon W | 3 | 22 | 3 | +19 | 9 |
| 2 | Paris Saint-Germain Nữ | 3 | 5 | 0 | +5 | 9 |
| 3 | Montpellier W | 3 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 4 |
| 4 | Paris FC Nữ | 3 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 6 |
| 5 | FC Fleury 91 W | 3 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 4 |
| 6 | Toulouse Nữ | 3 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 1 |
| 7 | Marseille W | 3 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 7 |
| 8 | Saint-Malo Nữ | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 |
| 9 | Strasbourg Nữ | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 3 |
| 10 | Lens W | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 1 |
| 11 | Le Havre W | 3 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 3 |
| 12 | Nantes W | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 1 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lyon W | 3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | +1.1 | 9 |
| 2 | FC Fleury 91 W | 3 | 0.3 | 1.4 | -1.1 | 4 |
| 3 | Paris Saint-Germain Nữ | 3 | — | — | — | 9 |
| 4 | Marseille W | 3 | — | — | — | 7 |
| 5 | Paris FC Nữ | 3 | — | — | — | 6 |
| 6 | Montpellier W | 3 | — | — | — | 4 |
| 7 | Strasbourg Nữ | 3 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 8 | Le Havre W | 3 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 9 | Saint-Malo Nữ | 3 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 10 | Lens W | 3 | — | — | — | 1 |
| 11 | Toulouse Nữ | 3 | — | — | — | 1 |
| 12 | Nantes W | 3 | — | — | — | 1 |
