Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (2 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Trethomas Bluebirds Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.46
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · Ynyshir Albions 1–1 Trethomas Bluebirds
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "eec04de633a3ad844904eb731b66272720c56b4b092631128b13dcd7557ce135",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.31,
"away_win_prob": 0.3564,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.546,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.81,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.88,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.29,
"home_win_prob": 0.347,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Winner : Trethomas Bluebirds",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Trethomas Bluebirds"
},
"away_xg": 1.31,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Trethomas Bluebirds",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0177,
"edge_gap": 0.0087,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3736,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 35.6,
"draw": 29.7,
"home": 34.7
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.45
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.45,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Trethomas Bluebirds Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.68,
"market_odds": 2.45,
"model_odds": 2.81,
"overround": 9.2,
"prob_edge": -5.2,
"value_pct": -12.8,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 1,
"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 7,
"away_score_rate": 73.0,
"home_clean_sheet": 3,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 6,
"home_score_rate": 72.5,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.31,
"home_expected": 1.29,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.1
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Ynyshir Albions or Draw",
"prob": 64.3
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Ynyshir Albions or Trethomas Bluebirds",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Trethomas Bluebirds",
"prob": 65.2
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Ynyshir Albions or Trethomas Bluebirds",
"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 35.6,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 34.7,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Trethomas Bluebirds"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 2.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 2.4,
"implied_prob": 28.9,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.6,
"odds": 3.46
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Trethomas Bluebirds",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 37.36,
"draw": 26.46,
"home": 36.18
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 13:32:21",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 13:09:10",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Ynyshir Albions",
"largest_move_kind": "1x2_a",
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.11,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 36.18,
"gap_pp": -1.45,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 34.73
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.46,
"gap_pp": 3.22,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.68
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 37.36,
"gap_pp": -1.77,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 35.59
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 57.66,
"gap_pp": -9.46,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 42.34,
"gap_pp": 9.46,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.53,
"early": 2.5,
"implied_closing_pct": 36.18,
"implied_delta_pp": -0.03,
"implied_early_pct": 36.21,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.46,
"early": 3.41,
"implied_closing_pct": 26.46,
"implied_delta_pp": -0.09,
"implied_early_pct": 26.54,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.45,
"early": 2.43,
"implied_closing_pct": 37.36,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.11,
"implied_early_pct": 37.25,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.63,
"early": 1.62,
"implied_closing_pct": 57.66,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.07,
"implied_early_pct": 57.59,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.22,
"early": 2.2,
"implied_closing_pct": 42.34,
"implied_delta_pp": -0.07,
"implied_early_pct": 42.41,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 9.5,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 0.1,
"ev": 0.008,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 8.0,
"market_prob": 0.125,
"market_prob_pct": 12.5,
"model_prob": 0.126,
"model_prob_pct": 12.6,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.1
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.29,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1929,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.17,
"edge": 0.0183,
"edge_pp": 1.8,
"market_prob": 0.4229,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2122,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": -0.0202,
"ev": -0.1145,
"implied_prob": 0.5771,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5569
},
"p_final": 0.4412,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.5,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1241,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0425,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1929,
"best_odd": 2.17,
"edge": 0.0183,
"ev": -0.0425,
"implied_prob": 0.4229,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4412
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2192,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -21.9,
"text": "-21.9%"
},
"ev_under": 0.1914,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 19.1,
"text": "+19.1%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1914,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10322.26,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1622,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.34,
"edge": 0.0107,
"edge_pp": 1.1,
"market_prob": 0.389,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1622,
"best_odd": 2.34,
"edge": 0.0107,
"ev": -0.0646,
"implied_prob": 0.389,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3997
},
"p_final": 0.3997,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0647,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0646,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.223,
"best_odd": 1.49,
"edge": -0.0147,
"ev": -0.1116,
"implied_prob": 0.611,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5963
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0875,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 8.8,
"text": "+8.8%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1825,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -18.2,
"text": "-18.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0875,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10078.75,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.45,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.1036,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -10.4,
"text": "-10.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3736,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0528,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.3,
"text": "-5.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.8,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.128,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.8%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Trethomas Bluebirds",
"sort_key": 1786.8,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 3.2,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 3.19,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 37.4,
"market_team": "Trethomas Bluebirds",
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"model_team": "Trethomas Bluebirds",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Trethomas Bluebirds)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Trethomas Bluebirds)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1914,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1914,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Trethomas Bluebirds at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Trethomas Bluebirds as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.8,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Trethomas Bluebirds",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Trethomas Bluebirds).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1036,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.45,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3736,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4081632653061224,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.128,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "7/7",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 85,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 3.19,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 3.19,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.31,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.29,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.31,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.29 \u00b7 Away xG 1.31 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Ynyshir Albions",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Trethomas Bluebirds).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Trethomas Bluebirds)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Trethomas Bluebirds)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1914,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1914,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Trethomas Bluebirds at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Trethomas Bluebirds as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.8,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Trethomas Bluebirds",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Trethomas Bluebirds).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1036,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.45,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3736,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4081632653061224,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.128,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Ynyshir Albions 1.29 xG vs Trethomas Bluebirds 1.31 \u2192 Trethomas Bluebirds 35.6%",
"Market: Trethomas Bluebirds ~37.4% implied",
"Market Steam: Ynyshir Albions +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Trethomas Bluebirds with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -1.48,
"fair_prob": 34.7,
"label": "Ynyshir Albions",
"market_prob": 36.18,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.19,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.46,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.72,
"fair_prob": 35.64,
"label": "Trethomas Bluebirds",
"market_prob": 37.36,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.65,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.85,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.65,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.15,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.58,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 61.08,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.58,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 38.92,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 3.19,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.46,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Ynyshir Albions"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.19,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Trethomas Bluebirds",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 37.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-1.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -1.8,
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-1.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -1.8,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 85,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Trethomas Bluebirds \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Ynyshir Albions 1.29 xG vs Trethomas Bluebirds 1.31 \u2192 Trethomas Bluebirds 35.6%",
"Market: Trethomas Bluebirds ~37.4% implied",
"Market Steam: Ynyshir Albions +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Trethomas Bluebirds with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 3.19,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, Ynyshir Albions has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Ynyshir Albions.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, Ynyshir Albions has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market activity is currently concentrated on Ynyshir Albions."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Ynyshir Albions has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/7) supports the current market view on Ynyshir Albions."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 3.19,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.9,
"max_prob_pct": 35.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": 3.2,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.2,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -1.48,
"edge_pp": -1.48,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Ynyshir Albions",
"market_prob_pct": 36.18,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.19,
"edge_pp": 3.19,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.46,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.72,
"edge_pp": -1.72,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Trethomas Bluebirds",
"market_prob_pct": 37.36,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Ynyshir Albions.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Trethomas Bluebirds (37.4%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Trethomas Bluebirds, Market \u2192 Trethomas Bluebirds, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 28.9,
"closing_odds": 3.46,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 28.9,
"entry_odds": 3.46,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/7",
"current_odds": 2.2,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.2,
"pick_team": "Ynyshir Albions",
"steam_score": 31,
"steam_team_name": "Ynyshir Albions",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 3.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "trethomas-bluebirds",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Trethomas Bluebirds",
"away_team_id": 11310,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/11310.webp",
"away_team_name": "Trethomas Bluebirds",
"away_team_public_id": "4daoy05VqUqUig",
"away_team_slug": "trethomas-bluebirds",
"country_code": "GB-WLS",
"country_display_name": "Wales",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-wls.svg",
"country_id": 167,
"country_name": "Wales",
"fixture_id": 1580758,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Wales",
"home_team_display_name": "Ynyshir Albions",
"home_team_id": 7601,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/7601.webp",
"home_team_name": "Ynyshir Albions",
"home_team_public_id": "5YCiwiDmafZ8av",
"home_team_slug": "ynyshir-albions",
"ht.home_team_slug": "ynyshir-albions",
"league_country": "Wales",
"league_country_display": "Wales",
"league_display_name": "Gi\u1ea3i FAW Championship",
"league_id": 111,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/111.webp",
"league_name": "Gi\u1ea3i FAW Championship",
"league_public_id": "1vRup4lQvPxvya",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 13:30:00",
"public_id": "5XNn3N6l3iXKK0",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4381,
"best_odd": 2.45,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0078,
"ev": -0.1036,
"implied_prob": 0.3736,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3736,
"draw": 0.2646,
"home": 0.3618
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"p_final": 0.3659
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2855,
"best_odd": 3.46,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0092,
"ev": -0.0528,
"implied_prob": 0.2646,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3736,
"draw": 0.2646,
"home": 0.3618
},
"model_prob": 0.2968,
"p_final": 0.2738
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4402,
"best_odd": 2.53,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0064,
"ev": -0.1008,
"implied_prob": 0.3618,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3736,
"draw": 0.2646,
"home": 0.3618
},
"model_prob": 0.3473,
"p_final": 0.3554
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.45,
"edge": -0.0522,
"ev": -0.128,
"implied_prob": 0.4082,
"model_prob": 0.3559
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.46,
"edge": 0.0078,
"ev": 0.0269,
"implied_prob": 0.289,
"model_prob": 0.2968
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.53,
"edge": -0.048,
"ev": -0.1214,
"implied_prob": 0.3953,
"model_prob": 0.3473
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1622,
"alpha_yes": 0.223,
"best_no_odd": 2.39,
"best_yes_odd": 1.5,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0658,
"edge_yes": -0.0658,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0875,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0646,
"ev_yes": -0.1825,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1116,
"implied_no": 0.3892,
"implied_yes": 0.6108,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1622,
"best_odd": 2.34,
"edge": 0.0107,
"ev": -0.0646,
"implied_prob": 0.389,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3997
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.223,
"best_odd": 1.49,
"edge": -0.0147,
"ev": -0.1116,
"implied_prob": 0.611,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5963
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.3997,
"p_final_yes": 0.5963,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2122,
"alpha_under": 0.1929,
"best_over_odd": 1.62,
"best_under_odd": 2.3,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.59,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.17,
"edge_over": -0.0965,
"edge_under": 0.0965,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2192,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1145,
"ev_under": 0.1914,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0425,
"implied_over": 0.5785,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5771,
"implied_under": 0.4215,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4229,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2122,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": -0.0202,
"ev": -0.1145,
"implied_prob": 0.5771,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5569
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1929,
"best_odd": 2.17,
"edge": 0.0183,
"ev": -0.0425,
"implied_prob": 0.4229,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4412
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5569,
"p_final_under": 0.4412,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1914,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1914,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1914,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.9
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Trethomas Bluebirds)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1914,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1914,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Trethomas Bluebirds at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Trethomas Bluebirds as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.8,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Trethomas Bluebirds",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Trethomas Bluebirds).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1036,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.45,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3736,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4081632653061224,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.128,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2968,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3559,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.02
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.45,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0078,
"ev": -0.1036,
"implied_prob": 0.3736,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Trethomas Bluebirds"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1622,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.34,
"edge": 0.0107,
"market_prob": 0.389,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1622,
"best_odd": 2.34,
"edge": 0.0107,
"ev": -0.0646,
"implied_prob": 0.389,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3997
},
"p_final": 0.3997,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0646,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.223,
"best_odd": 1.49,
"edge": -0.0147,
"ev": -0.1116,
"implied_prob": 0.611,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5963
}
},
"edge": 0.0658,
"ev": 0.0875,
"implied_prob": 0.3892,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1929,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.17,
"edge": 0.0183,
"market_prob": 0.4229,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2122,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": -0.0202,
"ev": -0.1145,
"implied_prob": 0.5771,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5569
},
"p_final": 0.4412,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0425,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1929,
"best_odd": 2.17,
"edge": 0.0183,
"ev": -0.0425,
"implied_prob": 0.4229,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4412
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0965,
"ev": 0.1914,
"implied_prob": 0.4215,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1580758,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1914,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3559,
"draw": 0.2968,
"home": 0.3473
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Trethomas Bluebirds",
"home": "Ynyshir Albions"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.069402,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1914,
"implied_prob": 0.4215,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1036,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.45,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3736,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4081632653061224,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.128,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1580758,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T13:32:23.147744+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Ynyshir Albions & Trethomas Bluebirds!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Giải FAW Championship — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea University | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16 |
| 2 | Aberystwyth Town | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 |
| 3 | Treowen Stars | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 4 | Pontypridd Town | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 5 | Baglan Dragons | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Carmarthen Town | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Caerau (Ely) | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | Afan Lido | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 10 | Ynyshir Albions | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 11 | Caerphilly Athletic | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 12 | Cardiff Draconians | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 13 | Newport City | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 14 | Pontardawe Town | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 15 | Llanelli AFC | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 2 |
| 16 | Llantwit Major | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea University | 6 | 22 | 5 | +17 | 16 |
| 2 | Aberystwyth Town | 6 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 15 |
| 3 | Carmarthen Town | 7 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 11 |
| 4 | Treowen Stars | 7 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 13 |
| 5 | Pontypridd Town | 6 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 13 |
| 6 | Caerau (Ely) | 7 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 10 |
| 7 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 7 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 9 |
| 8 | Afan Lido | 8 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 10 |
| 9 | Newport City | 5 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 6 |
| 10 | Baglan Dragons | 8 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 13 |
| 11 | Cardiff Draconians | 5 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Caerphilly Athletic | 7 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 8 |
| 13 | Ynyshir Albions | 6 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 9 |
| 14 | Llanelli AFC | 8 | 6 | 23 | -17 | 2 |
| 15 | Pontardawe Town | 6 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 3 |
| 16 | Llantwit Major | 5 | 2 | 15 | -13 | 1 |
