Newtown AFC vs Porthmadog Statistics & Analysis

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      "away_win_prob": 0.3611,
      "away_win_prob_posterior": null,
      "bayes_applied": 0,
      "btts_no_prob": 0.455,
      "btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2965,
      "draw_prob_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_away": 2.77,
      "fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
      "fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_home": 2.92,
      "fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.28,
      "home_win_prob": 0.3424,
      "home_win_prob_posterior": null,
      "over_25_prob": 0.482,
      "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
      "under_25_prob": 0.518
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : Newtown AFC or draw",
      "main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
      "percent_away": "10%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "45%",
      "winner_name": "Newtown AFC"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.32,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Porthmadog",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
        "edge": 0.1719,
        "edge_gap": 0.0185,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.189,
        "model_prob": 0.3609,
        "pick_type": "no_strong",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 36.1,
          "draw": 29.7,
          "home": 34.2
        },
        "reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 4.78
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 4.78,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Porthmadog Win",
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Away",
        "market_fair_odds": 5.29,
        "market_odds": 4.78,
        "model_odds": 2.77,
        "overround": 10.7,
        "prob_edge": 15.2,
        "value_pct": 72.6,
        "value_rating": "strong_value"
      }
    },
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        "away_clean_sheet": 2,
        "away_failed_to_score": 0,
        "away_played": 8,
        "away_score_rate": 73.3,
        "home_clean_sheet": 6,
        "home_failed_to_score": 0,
        "home_played": 7,
        "home_score_rate": 72.2,
        "no_prob": 45.5,
        "pick": "No",
        "pick_prob": 54.5,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 54.5
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.32,
        "home_expected": 1.28,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 12.5
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 0,
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            "prob": 9.8
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
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            "prob": 9.5
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          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 1,
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            "prob": 8.3
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          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 8.0
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Newtown AFC or Draw",
            "prob": 63.8
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Newtown AFC or Porthmadog",
            "prob": 70.3
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Porthmadog",
            "prob": 65.7
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "12",
        "pick_label": "Newtown AFC or Porthmadog",
        "pick_prob": 70.3
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 36.1,
        "draw_pct": 29.6,
        "home_pct": 34.2,
        "lean_key": "away",
        "lean_label": "Porthmadog"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 2.6,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.9,
        "confidence": "low",
        "home_avg_scored": 2.3,
        "over_prob": 48.2,
        "pick": "Under 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 51.8,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 2.6,
        "under_prob": 51.8
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "edge": 72.6,
        "implied_prob": 20.9,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Away",
        "market": "Porthmadog Win",
        "model_prob": 36.1,
        "odds": 4.78
      }
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Porthmadog",
      "closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
        "away": 18.9,
        "draw": 20.87,
        "home": 60.23
      },
      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "closing_capture": "PRE1",
      "closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 13:32:02",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "early_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 13:08:51",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "Newtown AFC",
      "largest_move_kind": null,
      "max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
      "model_vs_closing": [
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 60.23,
          "gap_pp": -25.99,
          "kind": "1x2_h",
          "model_pct": 34.24
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 20.87,
          "gap_pp": 8.8,
          "kind": "1x2_d",
          "model_pct": 29.67
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 18.9,
          "gap_pp": 17.19,
          "kind": "1x2_a",
          "model_pct": 36.09
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 63.66,
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          "model_pct": 48.2
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 36.34,
          "gap_pp": 15.46,
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          "model_pct": 51.8
        }
      ],
      "movement": [
        {
          "closing": 1.5,
          "early": 1.5,
          "implied_closing_pct": 60.23,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 60.23,
          "kind": "1x2_h"
        },
        {
          "closing": 4.33,
          "early": 4.33,
          "implied_closing_pct": 20.87,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 20.87,
          "kind": "1x2_d"
        },
        {
          "closing": 4.78,
          "early": 4.78,
          "implied_closing_pct": 18.9,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 18.9,
          "kind": "1x2_a"
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        {
          "closing": 1.45,
          "early": 1.45,
          "implied_closing_pct": 63.66,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 63.66,
          "kind": "ou_o"
        },
        {
          "closing": 2.54,
          "early": 2.54,
          "implied_closing_pct": 36.34,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 36.34,
          "kind": "ou_u"
        }
      ],
      "movement_negligible": true,
      "same_bookmaker": true,
      "top_value_gap": {
        "gap_pp": 17.2,
        "kind": "1x2_a"
      }
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": null,
      "lean_card": {
        "diff_pp": 0.0,
        "ev": 0.0,
        "has_edge": false,
        "label": "1-1",
        "market_odds": 8.0,
        "market_prob": 0.125,
        "market_prob_pct": 12.5,
        "model_prob": 0.125,
        "model_prob_pct": 12.5,
        "n_bookmakers": 3,
        "status_key": "no_value"
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      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-1",
        "prob": 12.5
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      "top5": [
        {
          "label": "1-1",
          "prob": 12.5
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        {
          "label": "0-1",
          "prob": 9.8
        },
        {
          "label": "1-0",
          "prob": 9.5
        },
        {
          "label": "1-2",
          "prob": 8.3
        },
        {
          "label": "2-1",
          "prob": 8.0
        }
      ]
    },
    "home_xg": 1.28,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "decision_layer": {
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          "consensus_odds": 2.49,
          "edge": 0.0214,
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            "implied_prob": 0.6368,
            "model_prob": 0.482,
            "p_final": 0.6074
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          "p_final": 0.3846,
          "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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            "best_odd": 2.49,
            "edge": 0.0214,
            "ev": -0.0424,
            "implied_prob": 0.3632,
            "model_prob": 0.518,
            "p_final": 0.3846
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          "value_side": "under"
        },
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": -0.3011,
        "ev_over_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -30.1,
          "text": "-30.1%"
        },
        "ev_under": 0.3157,
        "ev_under_display": {
          "capped": true,
          "raw_pct": 31.6,
          "text": "+25%+"
        },
        "featured": true,
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        "n_bookmakers": 3,
        "over_prob": 48.2,
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        "under_prob": 51.8,
        "value_side": "under"
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      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "decision_layer": {
          "alpha": 0.1653,
          "available": true,
          "consensus_odds": 2.29,
          "edge": 0.009,
          "edge_pp": 0.9,
          "market_prob": 0.4005,
          "mode": "market_first_btts",
          "model_prob": 0.455,
          "n_bookmakers": 3,
          "no": {
            "alpha": 0.1653,
            "best_odd": 2.29,
            "edge": 0.009,
            "ev": -0.0622,
            "implied_prob": 0.4005,
            "model_prob": 0.455,
            "p_final": 0.4095
          },
          "p_final": 0.4095,
          "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
          "raw_edge_pp": 5.4,
          "raw_signal_ev": 0.042,
          "risk_adj_ev": -0.0622,
          "value_side": "no",
          "yes": {
            "alpha": 0.2273,
            "best_odd": 1.53,
            "edge": -0.0124,
            "ev": -0.1017,
            "implied_prob": 0.5995,
            "model_prob": 0.545,
            "p_final": 0.5871
          }
        },
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": 0.0465,
        "ev_no_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": 4.7,
          "text": "+4.7%"
        },
        "ev_yes": -0.1661,
        "ev_yes_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -16.6,
          "text": "-16.6%"
        },
        "featured": false,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": 0.0465,
        "n_bookmakers": 3,
        "no_prob": 45.5,
        "sort_key": 10041.85,
        "tier": "best",
        "value_side": "no",
        "yes_prob": 54.5
      },
      {
        "authority_action": "wait",
        "authority_note": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
        "consensus_odds": 4.78,
        "decision": "small_edge",
        "disagreement_label": "Strong",
        "disagreement_level": "strong",
        "ev": 0.0255,
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": 2.5,
          "text": "+2.5%"
        },
        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.189,
        "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
        "max_ev": 0.0255,
        "max_ev_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": 2.5,
          "text": "+2.5%"
        },
        "model_prob": 0.3609,
        "raw_edge_display": "+17.2 percentage points",
        "raw_edge_pp": 17.2,
        "raw_signal_ev": 0.7251,
        "raw_signal_ev_display": "+72.5%",
        "show_primary_label": false,
        "side_label": "Porthmadog",
        "sort_key": 5220.4,
        "tier": "lean"
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 817.5,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "1-1",
        "top_prob": 12.5
      }
    ],
    "market_intelligence": {
      "betting_signal": {
        "alert_breadth": "",
        "alert_breadth_note": "",
        "alert_move": "",
        "alert_team": "",
        "alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
        "divergence_pp": 26.0,
        "has_alert": false,
        "hero_edge_pp": -25.99,
        "hero_label": "Newtown AFC",
        "market_prob_pct": 18.9,
        "market_team": "Newtown AFC",
        "model_prob_pct": 36.1,
        "model_team": "Porthmadog",
        "show": true,
        "status_icon": "!",
        "status_key": "caution",
        "status_label": "Use caution",
        "status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
        "steam_score": null,
        "steam_subtitle": "",
        "steam_tier": "",
        "title": "Betting Signal"
      },
      "decision_chain": {
        "academy_links": [
          {
            "key": "market_disagree",
            "read_min": 5,
            "title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
            "url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
          },
          {
            "key": "steam",
            "read_min": 4,
            "title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
            "url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
          },
          {
            "key": "clv_pending",
            "read_min": 3,
            "title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
            "url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
          }
        ],
        "alignment": {
          "direction_aligned": false,
          "direction_key": "conflict",
          "gap_pp": 26.0,
          "key": "conflict",
          "label": "Disagree",
          "model_strong": false,
          "pricing_aligned": false,
          "pricing_key": "low",
          "probability_gap_pp": 26.0,
          "summary": "The market has repriced Newtown AFC, but the model still strongly favours Porthmadog."
        },
        "authority": {
          "action": "wait",
          "alignment": {
            "direction_aligned": false,
            "direction_key": "conflict",
            "gap_pp": 26.0,
            "key": "conflict",
            "label": "Disagree",
            "model_strong": false,
            "pricing_aligned": false,
            "pricing_key": "low",
            "probability_gap_pp": 26.0,
            "summary": "The market has repriced Newtown AFC, but the model still strongly favours Porthmadog."
          },
          "alignment_key": "conflict",
          "best_consensus_ev": 0.3157,
          "best_outlier_ev": 0.7253,
          "confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
          "decision_strength": 3.0,
          "decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
          "decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
          "decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
          "execution_confidence": 16,
          "extreme_disagreement": false,
          "final_verdict_audit": {
            "action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
            "action_label": "Action",
            "decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
            "is_primary": false,
            "snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Porthmadog at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 18.9%.",
            "why": [
              {
                "text": "Decision Model identifies Porthmadog as the value side (36.1%)",
                "tone": "ok"
              },
              {
                "text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
                "tone": "bad"
              },
              {
                "text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
                "tone": "bad"
              },
              {
                "text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
                "tone": "bad"
              },
              {
                "text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
                "tone": "bad"
              }
            ],
            "why_label": "Decision Summary"
          },
          "gap_pp": 17.2,
          "gates_failed": [
            "Reliability below 65"
          ],
          "has_top_pick": true,
          "headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
          "hero_mode": "default",
          "icon": "\u23f8",
          "label": "Wait for validation",
          "market_signal": "The market has repriced Newtown AFC, but the model still strongly favours Porthmadog.",
          "model_conflict_detail": null,
          "model_lean": "Porthmadog",
          "no_primary_reasons": {
            "all_triggered": [
              "market_conflict",
              "market_quality",
              "calibration_risk"
            ],
            "calibration_mode": "soft",
            "codes": [
              "market_conflict",
              "market_quality"
            ],
            "label": "Reason",
            "other_factors": [
              {
                "code": "market_quality",
                "detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
                "name": "Market Quality Risk",
                "short": "Market Quality Risk",
                "tone": "warn"
              }
            ],
            "other_label": "Other factors",
            "primary": {
              "code": "market_conflict",
              "detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
              "name": "Market Conflict",
              "short": "Market Conflict",
              "subtype": "probability_gap",
              "tone": "warn"
            },
            "secondary": {
              "code": "market_quality",
              "detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
              "name": "Market Quality Risk",
              "short": "Market Quality Risk",
              "tone": "warn"
            },
            "version": "v1"
          },
          "outlier_detected": true,
          "outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Porthmadog \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.33 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +73% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1580517 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.33 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +31.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
          "primary_allowed": false,
          "primary_block_explain": {
            "entries": [
              {
                "key": "positive_ev",
                "label": "Consensus EV +31.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
                "ok": true
              },
              {
                "key": "gate",
                "label": "Reliability below 65",
                "ok": false
              }
            ],
            "lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
            "primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
            "subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
            "title": "Why not Primary?"
          },
          "primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +31.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
          "primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +31.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
          "primary_gates": {
            "items": [
              {
                "key": "extreme_gap",
                "label": "Extreme gap",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "no"
              },
              {
                "key": "xg_calibration",
                "label": "xG calibration",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "warning"
              },
              {
                "key": "reliability",
                "label": "Rel",
                "ok": false,
                "value": "58 (\u226565)"
              },
              {
                "key": "execution",
                "label": "Exec",
                "ok": false,
                "value": "16 (\u226565)"
              },
              {
                "key": "alignment",
                "label": "Align",
                "ok": false,
                "value": "conflict"
              },
              {
                "key": "consensus_ev",
                "label": "ConsEV",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "+31.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
              },
              {
                "key": "top_pick",
                "label": "Pick",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "true"
              },
              {
                "key": "validation",
                "label": "Validation",
                "ok": false,
                "value": "false"
              }
            ],
            "passed": 4,
            "total": 8
          },
          "primary_type": null,
          "reasons": [
            "The market has repriced Newtown AFC, but the model still strongly favours Porthmadog.",
            "Decision strength: 3.0/10",
            "Reliability below 65",
            "Outlier price +73% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
          ],
          "reliability_score": 58,
          "speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
          "strength_v2_breakdown": [
            "Base decision score (v1)",
            "Market steam conflicts with model",
            "Consensus-line +EV",
            "Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
          ],
          "subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
          "thresholds": {
            "extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
            "lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
            "lean_min_strength": 5.0,
            "min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
            "min_execution": 65,
            "min_reliability": 65,
            "min_strength": 7.0,
            "source": "db",
            "user_id": 2
          },
          "thresholds_source": "db",
          "thresholds_user_id": 2,
          "tier": "wait",
          "validation_ok": false,
          "value_context": {
            "consensus_ev": 0.0255,
            "consensus_ev_display": "+2.5%",
            "consensus_odds": 4.78,
            "disagreement_label": "Strong",
            "disagreement_level": "strong",
            "implied_prob": 0.189,
            "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
            "model_prob": 0.3609,
            "raw_edge_display": "+17.2 percentage points",
            "raw_edge_pp": 17.2,
            "raw_implied_prob": 0.20920502092050208,
            "raw_signal_ev": 0.7251,
            "raw_signal_ev_display": "+72.5%"
          },
          "version": "v2.5",
          "xg_calibration": {
            "block_value_alert": true,
            "calibration_status": "warning",
            "deviation_pct": -2.2,
            "reasons": [
              "Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
            ],
            "recommended_action": "monitor",
            "strength_delta": -2.0,
            "uplift_away": null,
            "uplift_home": null,
            "xg_separation": {
              "band": "flat",
              "block_value_alert": true,
              "separation_score": -20,
              "strength_delta": -2.0,
              "xg_gap": 0.04
            }
          }
        },
        "bet_status": "wait",
        "books_breadth_display": "6/6",
        "breadth_ratio": 1.0,
        "evidence": {
          "score": 40,
          "signals": [
            {
              "icon": "\u25cb",
              "key": "statistical_edge",
              "label": "No strong statistical edge",
              "status": "neutral"
            },
            {
              "icon": "!",
              "key": "market_agreement",
              "label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
              "status": "caution"
            },
            {
              "icon": "\u25cb",
              "key": "steam",
              "label": "Sharp steam detected",
              "status": "neutral"
            },
            {
              "icon": "!",
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation warning",
              "status": "caution"
            }
          ],
          "stars": 2,
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "forecast_reliability": {
          "breakdown": [
            {
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation: Warning",
              "tone": "caution"
            },
            {
              "key": "gap",
              "label": "Large market gap (26 pp)",
              "tone": "caution"
            }
          ],
          "parts": {
            "alignment": 12.0,
            "data_quality": 12.0,
            "market_coverage": 10.0,
            "steam_coherence": 5.0,
            "validation": 14.0
          },
          "score": 58,
          "stars": 2,
          "tier": "moderate",
          "tier_label": "Moderate"
        },
        "lean_gap_pp": 25.99,
        "market_agreement": "weak",
        "max_gap_pp": 25.99,
        "model_calibration": {
          "away_xg": 1.32,
          "calibration_status": "ok",
          "deviation_pct": -2.0,
          "elevated": false,
          "home_xg": 1.28,
          "impact_note": "",
          "league_avg_xg": 1.35,
          "peak_xg": 1.32,
          "status_label": "Within typical league range",
          "summary": "Home xG 1.28 \u00b7 Away xG 1.32 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
          "title": "Model Calibration Check"
        },
        "move_is_drift": false,
        "mv_status": "warning",
        "odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
        "steam_conflicts": null,
        "steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
        "steam_team": "Newtown AFC",
        "suppress_execution": true,
        "value_split": {
          "execution_confidence": {
            "label": "Monitoring Confidence",
            "score": 16,
            "tier": "not_reliable",
            "tier_label": "Not reliable"
          },
          "market_compatibility": {
            "label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
            "note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
            "score": 4,
            "tier": "not_reliable",
            "tier_label": "Not reliable"
          },
          "model_edge_strength": {
            "label": "Model Signal Strength",
            "score": 40,
            "tier": "low",
            "tier_label": "Low"
          },
          "model_value": {
            "label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
            "note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
            "score": 4,
            "tier": "not_reliable",
            "tier_label": "Not reliable"
          },
          "recommendation": {
            "action": "wait",
            "label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
          }
        },
        "verdict": {
          "agree_note": "The market has repriced Newtown AFC, but the model still strongly favours Porthmadog.",
          "alignment": {
            "direction_aligned": false,
            "direction_key": "conflict",
            "gap_pp": 26.0,
            "key": "conflict",
            "label": "Disagree",
            "model_strong": false,
            "pricing_aligned": false,
            "pricing_key": "low",
            "probability_gap_pp": 26.0,
            "summary": "The market has repriced Newtown AFC, but the model still strongly favours Porthmadog."
          },
          "authority": {
            "action": "wait",
            "alignment": {
              "direction_aligned": false,
              "direction_key": "conflict",
              "gap_pp": 26.0,
              "key": "conflict",
              "label": "Disagree",
              "model_strong": false,
              "pricing_aligned": false,
              "pricing_key": "low",
              "probability_gap_pp": 26.0,
              "summary": "The market has repriced Newtown AFC, but the model still strongly favours Porthmadog."
            },
            "alignment_key": "conflict",
            "best_consensus_ev": 0.3157,
            "best_outlier_ev": 0.7253,
            "confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
            "decision_strength": 3.0,
            "decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
            "decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
            "decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
            "execution_confidence": 16,
            "extreme_disagreement": false,
            "final_verdict_audit": {
              "action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
              "action_label": "Action",
              "decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
              "is_primary": false,
              "snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Porthmadog at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 18.9%.",
              "why": [
                {
                  "text": "Decision Model identifies Porthmadog as the value side (36.1%)",
                  "tone": "ok"
                },
                {
                  "text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
                  "tone": "bad"
                },
                {
                  "text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
                  "tone": "bad"
                },
                {
                  "text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
                  "tone": "bad"
                },
                {
                  "text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
                  "tone": "bad"
                }
              ],
              "why_label": "Decision Summary"
            },
            "gap_pp": 17.2,
            "gates_failed": [
              "Reliability below 65"
            ],
            "has_top_pick": true,
            "headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
            "hero_mode": "default",
            "icon": "\u23f8",
            "label": "Wait for validation",
            "market_signal": "The market has repriced Newtown AFC, but the model still strongly favours Porthmadog.",
            "model_conflict_detail": null,
            "model_lean": "Porthmadog",
            "no_primary_reasons": {
              "all_triggered": [
                "market_conflict",
                "market_quality",
                "calibration_risk"
              ],
              "calibration_mode": "soft",
              "codes": [
                "market_conflict",
                "market_quality"
              ],
              "label": "Reason",
              "other_factors": [
                {
                  "code": "market_quality",
                  "detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
                  "name": "Market Quality Risk",
                  "short": "Market Quality Risk",
                  "tone": "warn"
                }
              ],
              "other_label": "Other factors",
              "primary": {
                "code": "market_conflict",
                "detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
                "name": "Market Conflict",
                "short": "Market Conflict",
                "subtype": "probability_gap",
                "tone": "warn"
              },
              "secondary": {
                "code": "market_quality",
                "detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
                "name": "Market Quality Risk",
                "short": "Market Quality Risk",
                "tone": "warn"
              },
              "version": "v1"
            },
            "outlier_detected": true,
            "outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Porthmadog \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.33 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +73% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1580517 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.33 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +31.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
            "primary_allowed": false,
            "primary_block_explain": {
              "entries": [
                {
                  "key": "positive_ev",
                  "label": "Consensus EV +31.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
                  "ok": true
                },
                {
                  "key": "gate",
                  "label": "Reliability below 65",
                  "ok": false
                }
              ],
              "lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
              "primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
              "subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
              "title": "Why not Primary?"
            },
            "primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +31.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
            "primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +31.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
            "primary_gates": {
              "items": [
                {
                  "key": "extreme_gap",
                  "label": "Extreme gap",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "no"
                },
                {
                  "key": "xg_calibration",
                  "label": "xG calibration",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "warning"
                },
                {
                  "key": "reliability",
                  "label": "Rel",
                  "ok": false,
                  "value": "58 (\u226565)"
                },
                {
                  "key": "execution",
                  "label": "Exec",
                  "ok": false,
                  "value": "16 (\u226565)"
                },
                {
                  "key": "alignment",
                  "label": "Align",
                  "ok": false,
                  "value": "conflict"
                },
                {
                  "key": "consensus_ev",
                  "label": "ConsEV",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "+31.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
                },
                {
                  "key": "top_pick",
                  "label": "Pick",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "true"
                },
                {
                  "key": "validation",
                  "label": "Validation",
                  "ok": false,
                  "value": "false"
                }
              ],
              "passed": 4,
              "total": 8
            },
            "primary_type": null,
            "reasons": [
              "The market has repriced Newtown AFC, but the model still strongly favours Porthmadog.",
              "Decision strength: 3.0/10",
              "Reliability below 65",
              "Outlier price +73% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
            ],
            "reliability_score": 58,
            "speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
            "strength_v2_breakdown": [
              "Base decision score (v1)",
              "Market steam conflicts with model",
              "Consensus-line +EV",
              "Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
            ],
            "subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
            "thresholds": {
              "extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
              "lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
              "lean_min_strength": 5.0,
              "min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
              "min_execution": 65,
              "min_reliability": 65,
              "min_strength": 7.0,
              "source": "db",
              "user_id": 2
            },
            "thresholds_source": "db",
            "thresholds_user_id": 2,
            "tier": "wait",
            "validation_ok": false,
            "value_context": {
              "consensus_ev": 0.0255,
              "consensus_ev_display": "+2.5%",
              "consensus_odds": 4.78,
              "disagreement_label": "Strong",
              "disagreement_level": "strong",
              "implied_prob": 0.189,
              "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
              "model_prob": 0.3609,
              "raw_edge_display": "+17.2 percentage points",
              "raw_edge_pp": 17.2,
              "raw_implied_prob": 0.20920502092050208,
              "raw_signal_ev": 0.7251,
              "raw_signal_ev_display": "+72.5%"
            },
            "version": "v2.5",
            "xg_calibration": {
              "block_value_alert": true,
              "calibration_status": "warning",
              "deviation_pct": -2.2,
              "reasons": [
                "Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
              ],
              "recommended_action": "monitor",
              "strength_delta": -2.0,
              "uplift_away": null,
              "uplift_home": null,
              "xg_separation": {
                "band": "flat",
                "block_value_alert": true,
                "separation_score": -20,
                "strength_delta": -2.0,
                "xg_gap": 0.04
              }
            }
          },
          "headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
          "icon": "\u23f8",
          "label": "Wait for validation",
          "subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
          "tier": "wait"
        },
        "why": {
          "action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
          "bullets": [
            "Model: Newtown AFC 1.28 xG vs Porthmadog 1.32 \u2192 Porthmadog 36.1%",
            "Market: Newtown AFC ~18.9% implied",
            "Market Steam: Newtown AFC +0.0%"
          ],
          "one_liner": "Model leans Porthmadog, but market pricing diverges by 26 pp.",
          "title": "Why?"
        }
      },
      "edge_rows": [
        {
          "edge_pp": -25.99,
          "fair_prob": 34.24,
          "label": "Newtown AFC",
          "market_prob": 60.23,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "home"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 8.78,
          "fair_prob": 29.65,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": 20.87,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 17.21,
          "fair_prob": 36.11,
          "label": "Porthmadog",
          "market_prob": 18.9,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -15.47,
          "fair_prob": 48.2,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": 63.67,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 15.47,
          "fair_prob": 51.8,
          "label": "Under 2.5",
          "market_prob": 36.33,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -5.31,
          "fair_prob": 54.5,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": 59.81,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 5.31,
          "fair_prob": 45.5,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 40.19,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
        "edge_pp": -25.99,
        "fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
        "hero_side": "home",
        "hero_team_name": "Newtown AFC",
        "market_prob_pct": 60.23,
        "status": "strong_market_ahead",
        "steam_team_name": "Newtown AFC"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "closing_capture": "PRE1",
        "closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Newtown AFC\u0027s win probability at 60.2%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 26.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "extreme",
          "edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
          "max_gap_pp": 25.99,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": true
        },
        "divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "extreme",
        "divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
        "divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
        "divergence_tier": "extreme",
        "edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Balanced match",
          "favourite_label": "Porthmadog",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
          "headline": "Balanced match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
          "market_direction": {
            "label": "Conflicts with model",
            "positive": false
          },
          "market_prob_pct": 18.9,
          "model_prob_gap_display": "+17.2 percentage points",
          "model_prob_gap_pp": 17.2,
          "model_prob_pct": 36.1,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "low",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "pricing_convergence": {
            "gap_display": "+17.2 percentage points",
            "gap_pp": 17.2,
            "label": "Low convergence",
            "label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
          },
          "reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
          "reliability_icon": "!",
          "reliability_score": 58,
          "reliability_tier": "limited",
          "summary": "The market has repriced Newtown AFC, but the model still strongly favours Porthmadog. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Prediction Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Warning",
          "value_split": {
            "execution_confidence": {
              "label": "Monitoring Confidence",
              "score": 16,
              "tier": "not_reliable",
              "tier_label": "Not reliable"
            },
            "market_compatibility": {
              "label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
              "note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
              "score": 4,
              "tier": "not_reliable",
              "tier_label": "Not reliable"
            },
            "model_edge_strength": {
              "label": "Model Signal Strength",
              "score": 40,
              "tier": "low",
              "tier_label": "Low"
            },
            "model_value": {
              "label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
              "note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
              "score": 4,
              "tier": "not_reliable",
              "tier_label": "Not reliable"
            },
            "recommendation": {
              "action": "wait",
              "label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
            }
          },
          "why": {
            "action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
            "bullets": [
              "Model: Newtown AFC 1.28 xG vs Porthmadog 1.32 \u2192 Porthmadog 36.1%",
              "Market: Newtown AFC ~18.9% implied",
              "Market Steam: Newtown AFC +0.0%"
            ],
            "one_liner": "Model leans Porthmadog, but market pricing diverges by 26 pp.",
            "title": "Why?"
          }
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": -25.99,
        "hero_label": "Newtown AFC",
        "hero_side": "home",
        "market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
        "market_agreement": "weak",
        "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
        "market_interpretation": {},
        "market_narrative": {},
        "market_source": "closing_1x2",
        "max_gap_pp": 25.99,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
          "status": "warning"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
          "max_prob_pct": 36.1,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Low",
        "overall_assessment": {
          "badge_class": "extreme",
          "largest_gap_label": "Newtown AFC",
          "largest_gap_pp": -26.0,
          "lead": "The closing market prices Newtown AFC higher than the statistical model.",
          "level": "extreme",
          "max_gap_pp": 26.0,
          "title": "Strong Disagreement"
        },
        "rows": [
          {
            "difference_pp": -25.99,
            "edge_pp": -25.99,
            "fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Newtown AFC",
            "market_prob_pct": 60.23,
            "side": "home",
            "signal_key": "market_higher",
            "signal_label": "Market Higher"
          },
          {
            "difference_pp": 8.78,
            "edge_pp": 8.78,
            "fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 20.87,
            "side": "draw",
            "signal_key": "model_higher",
            "signal_label": "Model Higher"
          },
          {
            "difference_pp": 17.21,
            "edge_pp": 17.21,
            "fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Porthmadog",
            "market_prob_pct": 18.9,
            "side": "away",
            "signal_key": "model_edge",
            "signal_label": "Model Edge"
          }
        ],
        "status": "strong_market_ahead",
        "status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
        "steam_note": "",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Newtown AFC (18.9%).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Porthmadog, Market \u2192 Newtown AFC, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 66.67,
        "closing_odds": 1.5,
        "closing_reason": "",
        "closing_status": "recorded",
        "closing_status_label": "Recorded",
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_reason": "",
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 66.67,
        "entry_odds": 1.5,
        "match_phase": "upcoming",
        "match_phase_detail": "",
        "match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
        "match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "model_validation_status": "warning",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Prediction Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "show": false
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "6/6",
        "current_odds": 1.5,
        "move_display": "+0.0%",
        "open_odds": 1.5,
        "pick_team": "Newtown AFC",
        "steam_score": 30,
        "steam_team_name": "Newtown AFC",
        "steam_tier": "C"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 26.0,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "at2.away_team_slug": "porthmadog",
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_goal_display": null,
      "away_team_display_name": "Porthmadog",
      "away_team_id": 5621,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/5621.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Porthmadog",
      "away_team_public_id": "5eoHNGZQml60Pm",
      "away_team_slug": "porthmadog",
      "country_code": "GB-WLS",
      "country_display_name": "Wales",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-wls.svg",
      "country_id": 167,
      "country_name": "Wales",
      "fixture_id": 1580517,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_goal_display": null,
      "home_team_country": "Wales",
      "home_team_display_name": "Newtown AFC",
      "home_team_id": 358,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/358.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Newtown AFC",
      "home_team_public_id": "40nxTdMYojyHeq",
      "home_team_slug": "newtown-afc",
      "ht.home_team_slug": "newtown-afc",
      "league_country": "Wales",
      "league_country_display": "Wales",
      "league_display_name": "Gi\u1ea3i FAW Championship",
      "league_id": 111,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/111.webp",
      "league_name": "Gi\u1ea3i FAW Championship",
      "league_public_id": "1vRup4lQvPxvya",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-09-26 13:30:00",
      "public_id": "3igICjWsJj9tRo",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "score_penalty_away": null,
      "score_penalty_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": "Newtown",
      "venue_name": "Latham Park"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.1484,
            "best_odd": 4.78,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0255,
            "ev": 0.0255,
            "implied_prob": 0.189,
            "joint_probs": {
              "away": 0.189,
              "draw": 0.2087,
              "home": 0.6023
            },
            "model_prob": 0.3609,
            "p_final": 0.2145
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.1736,
            "best_odd": 4.33,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0153,
            "ev": -0.0304,
            "implied_prob": 0.2087,
            "joint_probs": {
              "away": 0.189,
              "draw": 0.2087,
              "home": 0.6023
            },
            "model_prob": 0.2967,
            "p_final": 0.2239
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.3661,
            "best_odd": 1.5,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0952,
            "ev": -0.2392,
            "implied_prob": 0.6023,
            "joint_probs": {
              "away": 0.189,
              "draw": 0.2087,
              "home": 0.6023
            },
            "model_prob": 0.3424,
            "p_final": 0.5072
          }
        },
        "1x2_outlier": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
          "away": {
            "best_odd": 4.78,
            "edge": 0.1517,
            "ev": 0.7253,
            "implied_prob": 0.2092,
            "model_prob": 0.3609
          },
          "draw": {
            "best_odd": 4.33,
            "edge": 0.0657,
            "ev": 0.2846,
            "implied_prob": 0.2309,
            "model_prob": 0.2967
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "best_odd": 1.5,
            "edge": -0.3243,
            "ev": -0.4864,
            "implied_prob": 0.6667,
            "model_prob": 0.3424
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "alpha_no": 0.1653,
          "alpha_yes": 0.2273,
          "best_no_odd": 2.3,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.53,
          "btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
          "edge_no": 0.0531,
          "edge_yes": -0.0531,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": 0.0465,
          "ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0622,
          "ev_yes": -0.1661,
          "ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1017,
          "implied_no": 0.4019,
          "implied_yes": 0.5981,
          "market_first": {
            "available": true,
            "mode": "market_first_btts",
            "n_bookmakers": 3,
            "no": {
              "alpha": 0.1653,
              "best_odd": 2.29,
              "edge": 0.009,
              "ev": -0.0622,
              "implied_prob": 0.4005,
              "model_prob": 0.455,
              "p_final": 0.4095
            },
            "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
            "yes": {
              "alpha": 0.2273,
              "best_odd": 1.53,
              "edge": -0.0124,
              "ev": -0.1017,
              "implied_prob": 0.5995,
              "model_prob": 0.545,
              "p_final": 0.5871
            }
          },
          "n_bookmakers": 3,
          "p_final_no": 0.4095,
          "p_final_yes": 0.5871,
          "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "alpha_over": 0.19,
          "alpha_under": 0.1382,
          "best_over_odd": 1.45,
          "best_under_odd": 2.54,
          "consensus_over_odd": 1.42,
          "consensus_under_odd": 2.49,
          "edge_over": -0.1547,
          "edge_under": 0.1547,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": -0.3011,
          "ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1375,
          "ev_under": 0.3157,
          "ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0424,
          "implied_over": 0.6367,
          "implied_over_mf": 0.6368,
          "implied_under": 0.3633,
          "implied_under_mf": 0.3632,
          "market_first": {
            "available": true,
            "mode": "market_first_ou",
            "n_bookmakers": 3,
            "over": {
              "alpha": 0.19,
              "best_odd": 1.42,
              "edge": -0.0294,
              "ev": -0.1375,
              "implied_prob": 0.6368,
              "model_prob": 0.482,
              "p_final": 0.6074
            },
            "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
            "under": {
              "alpha": 0.1382,
              "best_odd": 2.49,
              "edge": 0.0214,
              "ev": -0.0424,
              "implied_prob": 0.3632,
              "model_prob": 0.518,
              "p_final": 0.3846
            }
          },
          "n_bookmakers": 3,
          "ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
          "p_final_over": 0.6074,
          "p_final_under": 0.3846,
          "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "avoid",
        "code": "no_edge",
        "execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
        "insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
        "stake_mult": 0.0,
        "use_split_strip": true
      },
      "match_tier": "no_bet",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.6,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.5.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_consensus_ev": 0.3157,
      "best_outlier_ev": 0.7253,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.3157,
      "confidence": 6.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "breakdown_v2": [
          "Base decision score (v1)",
          "Market steam conflicts with model",
          "Consensus-line +EV",
          "Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
        ],
        "guard_capped": true,
        "score": 3.0,
        "score_before_guard": 6.5,
        "score_v1_legacy": 3.0,
        "score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
        "strength_v2": true
      },
      "decision_strength_v2": {
        "breakdown": [
          "Base decision score (v1)",
          "Market steam conflicts with model",
          "Consensus-line +EV",
          "Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
        ],
        "score": 3.0,
        "score_pre_penalty": 3.0
      },
      "decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "final_action": "wait",
      "final_decision": {
        "action": "wait",
        "alignment": {
          "direction_aligned": false,
          "direction_key": "conflict",
          "gap_pp": 26.0,
          "key": "conflict",
          "label": "Disagree",
          "model_strong": false,
          "pricing_aligned": false,
          "pricing_key": "low",
          "probability_gap_pp": 26.0,
          "summary": "The market has repriced Newtown AFC, but the model still strongly favours Porthmadog."
        },
        "alignment_key": "conflict",
        "best_consensus_ev": 0.3157,
        "best_outlier_ev": 0.7253,
        "confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
        "decision_strength": 3.0,
        "decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
        "decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
        "decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
        "execution_confidence": 16,
        "extreme_disagreement": false,
        "final_verdict_audit": {
          "action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
          "action_label": "Action",
          "decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
          "is_primary": false,
          "snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Porthmadog at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 18.9%.",
          "why": [
            {
              "text": "Decision Model identifies Porthmadog as the value side (36.1%)",
              "tone": "ok"
            },
            {
              "text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
              "tone": "bad"
            },
            {
              "text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
              "tone": "bad"
            },
            {
              "text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
              "tone": "bad"
            },
            {
              "text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
              "tone": "bad"
            }
          ],
          "why_label": "Decision Summary"
        },
        "gap_pp": 17.2,
        "gates_failed": [
          "Reliability below 65"
        ],
        "has_top_pick": true,
        "headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
        "hero_mode": "default",
        "icon": "\u23f8",
        "label": "Wait for validation",
        "market_signal": "The market has repriced Newtown AFC, but the model still strongly favours Porthmadog.",
        "model_conflict_detail": null,
        "model_lean": "Porthmadog",
        "no_primary_reasons": {
          "all_triggered": [
            "market_conflict",
            "market_quality",
            "calibration_risk"
          ],
          "calibration_mode": "soft",
          "codes": [
            "market_conflict",
            "market_quality"
          ],
          "label": "Reason",
          "other_factors": [
            {
              "code": "market_quality",
              "detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
              "name": "Market Quality Risk",
              "short": "Market Quality Risk",
              "tone": "warn"
            }
          ],
          "other_label": "Other factors",
          "primary": {
            "code": "market_conflict",
            "detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
            "name": "Market Conflict",
            "short": "Market Conflict",
            "subtype": "probability_gap",
            "tone": "warn"
          },
          "secondary": {
            "code": "market_quality",
            "detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
            "name": "Market Quality Risk",
            "short": "Market Quality Risk",
            "tone": "warn"
          },
          "version": "v1"
        },
        "outlier_detected": true,
        "outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Porthmadog \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.33 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +73% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1580517 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.33 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +31.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
        "primary_allowed": false,
        "primary_block_explain": {
          "entries": [
            {
              "key": "positive_ev",
              "label": "Consensus EV +31.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
              "ok": true
            },
            {
              "key": "gate",
              "label": "Reliability below 65",
              "ok": false
            }
          ],
          "lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
          "primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
          "subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
          "title": "Why not Primary?"
        },
        "primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +31.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
        "primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +31.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
        "primary_gates": {
          "items": [
            {
              "key": "extreme_gap",
              "label": "Extreme gap",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "no"
            },
            {
              "key": "xg_calibration",
              "label": "xG calibration",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "warning"
            },
            {
              "key": "reliability",
              "label": "Rel",
              "ok": false,
              "value": "58 (\u226565)"
            },
            {
              "key": "execution",
              "label": "Exec",
              "ok": false,
              "value": "16 (\u226565)"
            },
            {
              "key": "alignment",
              "label": "Align",
              "ok": false,
              "value": "conflict"
            },
            {
              "key": "consensus_ev",
              "label": "ConsEV",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "+31.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
            },
            {
              "key": "top_pick",
              "label": "Pick",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "true"
            },
            {
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation",
              "ok": false,
              "value": "false"
            }
          ],
          "passed": 4,
          "total": 8
        },
        "primary_type": null,
        "reasons": [
          "The market has repriced Newtown AFC, but the model still strongly favours Porthmadog.",
          "Decision strength: 3.0/10",
          "Reliability below 65",
          "Outlier price +73% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
        ],
        "reliability_score": 58,
        "speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
        "strength_v2_breakdown": [
          "Base decision score (v1)",
          "Market steam conflicts with model",
          "Consensus-line +EV",
          "Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
        ],
        "subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
        "thresholds": {
          "extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
          "lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
          "lean_min_strength": 5.0,
          "min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
          "min_execution": 65,
          "min_reliability": 65,
          "min_strength": 7.0,
          "source": "db",
          "user_id": 2
        },
        "thresholds_source": "db",
        "thresholds_user_id": 2,
        "tier": "wait",
        "validation_ok": false,
        "value_context": {
          "consensus_ev": 0.0255,
          "consensus_ev_display": "+2.5%",
          "consensus_odds": 4.78,
          "disagreement_label": "Strong",
          "disagreement_level": "strong",
          "implied_prob": 0.189,
          "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
          "model_prob": 0.3609,
          "raw_edge_display": "+17.2 percentage points",
          "raw_edge_pp": 17.2,
          "raw_implied_prob": 0.20920502092050208,
          "raw_signal_ev": 0.7251,
          "raw_signal_ev_display": "+72.5%"
        },
        "version": "v2.5",
        "xg_calibration": {
          "block_value_alert": true,
          "calibration_status": "warning",
          "deviation_pct": -2.2,
          "reasons": [
            "Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
          ],
          "recommended_action": "monitor",
          "strength_delta": -2.0,
          "uplift_away": null,
          "uplift_home": null,
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      "guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
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        "ou_2_5": {
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        "raw_edge_display": "+17.2 percentage points",
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  "fixture_id": 1580517,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T13:32:04.041418+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}