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Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (7 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Caersws Caersws ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-5 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.04
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Caersws win · Llanuwchllyn 2–5 Caersws
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
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"facts": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.3564,
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"bayes_applied": 0,
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"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.81,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
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"home_predicted_xg": 1.29,
"home_win_prob": 0.347,
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"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Llanuwchllyn or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "30%",
"percent_draw": "35%",
"percent_home": "35%",
"winner_name": "Llanuwchllyn"
},
"away_xg": 1.31,
"betting_insight": {
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"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
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"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.088,
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"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
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"odd": 2.04
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],
"risk_color": null,
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"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
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"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
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"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.25,
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"overround": 10.4,
"prob_edge": -13.4,
"value_pct": -27.4,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 7,
"away_score_rate": 73.0,
"home_clean_sheet": 2,
"home_failed_to_score": 2,
"home_played": 7,
"home_score_rate": 72.5,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.31,
"home_expected": 1.29,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
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{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
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"prob": 8.1
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Llanuwchllyn or Draw",
"prob": 64.3
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Llanuwchllyn or Caersws",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Caersws",
"prob": 65.2
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Llanuwchllyn or Caersws",
"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 35.6,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 34.7,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Caersws"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.9,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
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},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
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"edge": 10.4,
"implied_prob": 26.8,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.6,
"odds": 3.73
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Caersws",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 44.39,
"draw": 24.28,
"home": 31.33
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 13:31:51",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 13:08:45",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Llanuwchllyn",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 31.33,
"gap_pp": 3.39,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 34.73
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.28,
"gap_pp": 5.4,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.68
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 44.39,
"gap_pp": -8.8,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 35.59
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 64.94,
"gap_pp": -16.74,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 35.06,
"gap_pp": 16.74,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.89,
"early": 2.89,
"implied_closing_pct": 31.33,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 31.33,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.73,
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"kind": "1x2_d"
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{
"closing": 2.04,
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"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.42,
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"implied_closing_pct": 64.94,
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"implied_early_pct": 64.94,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.63,
"early": 2.63,
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"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 16.7,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -0.7,
"ev": -0.055,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.5,
"market_prob": 0.1333,
"market_prob_pct": 13.3,
"model_prob": 0.126,
"model_prob_pct": 12.6,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.1
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.29,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1333,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.62,
"edge": 0.0231,
"edge_pp": 2.3,
"market_prob": 0.345,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1833,
"best_odd": 1.38,
"edge": -0.0317,
"ev": -0.1399,
"implied_prob": 0.655,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6233
},
"p_final": 0.3681,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3572,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0357,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1333,
"best_odd": 2.62,
"edge": 0.0231,
"ev": -0.0357,
"implied_prob": 0.345,
"model_prob": 0.518,
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},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3156,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -31.6,
"text": "-31.6%"
},
"ev_under": 0.3623,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 36.2,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.3623,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10476.07,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.102,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.785,
"edge": 0.0129,
"edge_pp": 1.3,
"market_prob": 0.3281,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.102,
"best_odd": 2.785,
"edge": 0.0129,
"ev": -0.0502,
"implied_prob": 0.3281,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3411
},
"p_final": 0.3411,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2672,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0502,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1403,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.0178,
"ev": -0.1104,
"implied_prob": 0.6719,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6541
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2831,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 28.3,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_yes": -0.2588,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -25.9,
"text": "-25.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.2831,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10254.79,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.04,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1646,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.5,
"text": "-16.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4439,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0389,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.9,
"text": "-3.9%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.8,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.274,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.4%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Caersws",
"sort_key": 1790.275,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 8.8,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.75,
"hero_label": "Caersws",
"market_prob_pct": 44.4,
"market_team": "Caersws",
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"model_team": "Caersws",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Caersws)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Caersws)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3623,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3623,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 85,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Caersws at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Caersws as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.8,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Caersws",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +36.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +36.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+36.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Caersws).",
"Decision strength: 5.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 81,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1646,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.04,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4439,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49019607843137253,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.274,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "4/5",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 81,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 8.75,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.75,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.31,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.29,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.31,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.29 \u00b7 Away xG 1.31 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Llanuwchllyn",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 85,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 56,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 56,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Caersws).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Caersws)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Caersws)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3623,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3623,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 85,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Caersws at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Caersws as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.8,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Caersws",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +36.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +36.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+36.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Caersws).",
"Decision strength: 5.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 81,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1646,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.04,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4439,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49019607843137253,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.274,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Llanuwchllyn 1.29 xG vs Caersws 1.31 \u2192 Caersws 35.6%",
"Market: Caersws ~44.4% implied",
"Market Steam: Llanuwchllyn +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Caersws with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 3.37,
"fair_prob": 34.7,
"label": "Llanuwchllyn",
"market_prob": 31.33,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.37,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.28,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.75,
"fair_prob": 35.64,
"label": "Caersws",
"market_prob": 44.39,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -17.11,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 65.31,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 17.11,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 34.69,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.69,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 67.19,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.69,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 32.81,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -8.75,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Caersws",
"market_prob_pct": 44.39,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Llanuwchllyn"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Caersws\u0027s win probability at 44.4%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 35.6%, a difference of 8.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 8.75,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Caersws",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 44.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-8.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -8.8,
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-8.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -8.8,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 81,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Caersws \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 85,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 56,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 56,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Llanuwchllyn 1.29 xG vs Caersws 1.31 \u2192 Caersws 35.6%",
"Market: Caersws ~44.4% implied",
"Market Steam: Llanuwchllyn +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Caersws with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.75,
"hero_label": "Caersws",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Llanuwchllyn has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Caersws. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Llanuwchllyn.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Caersws. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, Llanuwchllyn has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market activity is currently concentrated on Llanuwchllyn."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Caersws above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Llanuwchllyn has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (4/5) supports the current market view on Llanuwchllyn."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 8.75,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.9,
"max_prob_pct": 35.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Caersws",
"largest_gap_pp": -8.8,
"lead": "The closing market prices Caersws higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.8,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 3.37,
"edge_pp": 3.37,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Llanuwchllyn",
"market_prob_pct": 31.33,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.37,
"edge_pp": 5.37,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.28,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -8.75,
"edge_pp": -8.75,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Caersws",
"market_prob_pct": 44.39,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Llanuwchllyn.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Caersws (44.4%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Caersws, Market \u2192 Caersws, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 49.02,
"closing_odds": 2.04,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 49.02,
"entry_odds": 2.04,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/5",
"current_odds": 2.89,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.89,
"pick_team": "Llanuwchllyn",
"steam_score": 32,
"steam_team_name": "Llanuwchllyn",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 8.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "caersws",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Caersws",
"away_team_id": 6445,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/6445.webp",
"away_team_name": "Caersws",
"away_team_public_id": "0a5HDuuThJh0mQ",
"away_team_slug": "caersws",
"country_code": "GB-WLS",
"country_display_name": "Wales",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-wls.svg",
"country_id": 167,
"country_name": "Wales",
"fixture_id": 1580516,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Wales",
"home_team_display_name": "Llanuwchllyn",
"home_team_id": 11303,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/11303.webp",
"home_team_name": "Llanuwchllyn",
"home_team_public_id": "1m37BHg2JiJW4q",
"home_team_slug": "llanuwchllyn",
"ht.home_team_slug": "llanuwchllyn",
"league_country": "Wales",
"league_country_display": "Wales",
"league_display_name": "Gi\u1ea3i FAW Championship",
"league_id": 111,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/111.webp",
"league_name": "Gi\u1ea3i FAW Championship",
"league_public_id": "1vRup4lQvPxvya",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 13:30:00",
"public_id": "4VEtCffjaFDnG3",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3906,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0344,
"ev": -0.1646,
"implied_prob": 0.4439,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4439,
"draw": 0.2428,
"home": 0.3133
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"p_final": 0.4095
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2757,
"best_odd": 3.73,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0149,
"ev": -0.0389,
"implied_prob": 0.2428,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4439,
"draw": 0.2428,
"home": 0.3133
},
"model_prob": 0.2968,
"p_final": 0.2577
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4271,
"best_odd": 2.89,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0145,
"ev": -0.0526,
"implied_prob": 0.3133,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4439,
"draw": 0.2428,
"home": 0.3133
},
"model_prob": 0.3473,
"p_final": 0.3278
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": -0.1343,
"ev": -0.2739,
"implied_prob": 0.4902,
"model_prob": 0.3559
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.73,
"edge": 0.0287,
"ev": 0.107,
"implied_prob": 0.2681,
"model_prob": 0.2968
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.89,
"edge": 0.0013,
"ev": 0.0036,
"implied_prob": 0.346,
"model_prob": 0.3473
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.102,
"alpha_yes": 0.1403,
"best_no_odd": 2.82,
"best_yes_odd": 1.36,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1269,
"edge_yes": -0.1269,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2831,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0502,
"ev_yes": -0.2588,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1104,
"implied_no": 0.3281,
"implied_yes": 0.6719,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.102,
"best_odd": 2.785,
"edge": 0.0129,
"ev": -0.0502,
"implied_prob": 0.3281,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3411
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1403,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.0178,
"ev": -0.1104,
"implied_prob": 0.6719,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6541
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"p_final_no": 0.3411,
"p_final_yes": 0.6541,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1833,
"alpha_under": 0.1333,
"best_over_odd": 1.42,
"best_under_odd": 2.63,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.38,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.62,
"edge_over": -0.1711,
"edge_under": 0.1711,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3156,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1399,
"ev_under": 0.3623,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0357,
"implied_over": 0.6531,
"implied_over_mf": 0.655,
"implied_under": 0.3469,
"implied_under_mf": 0.345,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1833,
"best_odd": 1.38,
"edge": -0.0317,
"ev": -0.1399,
"implied_prob": 0.655,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6233
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1333,
"best_odd": 2.62,
"edge": 0.0231,
"ev": -0.0357,
"implied_prob": 0.345,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3681
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6233,
"p_final_under": 0.3681,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3623,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3623,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3623,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.8
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Caersws)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3623,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3623,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 85,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Caersws at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Caersws as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.8,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Caersws",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +36.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +36.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+36.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Caersws).",
"Decision strength: 5.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 81,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1646,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.04,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4439,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49019607843137253,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.274,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2968,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3559,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.02
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.04,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0344,
"ev": -0.1646,
"implied_prob": 0.4439,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Caersws"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.102,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.785,
"edge": 0.0129,
"market_prob": 0.3281,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.102,
"best_odd": 2.785,
"edge": 0.0129,
"ev": -0.0502,
"implied_prob": 0.3281,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3411
},
"p_final": 0.3411,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0502,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1403,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.0178,
"ev": -0.1104,
"implied_prob": 0.6719,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6541
}
},
"edge": 0.1269,
"ev": 0.2831,
"implied_prob": 0.3281,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1333,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.62,
"edge": 0.0231,
"market_prob": 0.345,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1833,
"best_odd": 1.38,
"edge": -0.0317,
"ev": -0.1399,
"implied_prob": 0.655,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6233
},
"p_final": 0.3681,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0357,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1333,
"best_odd": 2.62,
"edge": 0.0231,
"ev": -0.0357,
"implied_prob": 0.345,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3681
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1711,
"ev": 0.3623,
"implied_prob": 0.3469,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1580516,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3623,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3559,
"draw": 0.2968,
"home": 0.3473
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2831,
"implied_prob": 0.3281,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2831,
"implied_prob": 0.3281,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Caersws",
"home": "Llanuwchllyn"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.13137,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3623,
"implied_prob": 0.3469,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1646,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.04,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4439,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49019607843137253,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.274,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1580516,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T13:31:56.305094+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Llanuwchllyn & Caersws!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Giải FAW Championship — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea University | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16 |
| 2 | Aberystwyth Town | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 |
| 3 | Treowen Stars | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 4 | Pontypridd Town | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 5 | Baglan Dragons | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Carmarthen Town | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Caerau (Ely) | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | Afan Lido | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 10 | Ynyshir Albions | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 11 | Caerphilly Athletic | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 12 | Cardiff Draconians | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 13 | Newport City | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 14 | Pontardawe Town | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 15 | Llanelli AFC | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 2 |
| 16 | Llantwit Major | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea University | 6 | 22 | 5 | +17 | 16 |
| 2 | Aberystwyth Town | 6 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 15 |
| 3 | Carmarthen Town | 7 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 11 |
| 4 | Treowen Stars | 7 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 13 |
| 5 | Pontypridd Town | 6 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 13 |
| 6 | Caerau (Ely) | 7 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 10 |
| 7 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 7 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 9 |
| 8 | Afan Lido | 8 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 10 |
| 9 | Newport City | 5 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 6 |
| 10 | Baglan Dragons | 8 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 13 |
| 11 | Cardiff Draconians | 5 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Caerphilly Athletic | 7 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 8 |
| 13 | Ynyshir Albions | 6 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 9 |
| 14 | Llanelli AFC | 8 | 6 | 23 | -17 | 2 |
| 15 | Pontardawe Town | 6 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 3 |
| 16 | Llantwit Major | 5 | 2 | 15 | -13 | 1 |
