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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Hoogstraten Mandel United ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.91
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Mandel United win · Mandel United 2–1 Hoogstraten
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
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"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "5c692b6f196bf7aafecf0eaee28b94d0560a1d7c026808a6ccfebd892e7fea11",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.33,
"away_win_prob": 0.3659,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2964,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.73,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.96,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.27,
"home_win_prob": 0.3377,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Hoogstraten",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Hoogstraten"
},
"away_xg": 1.33,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Hoogstraten",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.1177,
"edge_gap": 0.0284,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.2483,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 36.6,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 33.8
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 3.69
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 3.69,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Hoogstraten Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 4.03,
"market_odds": 3.69,
"model_odds": 2.73,
"overround": 9.1,
"prob_edge": 9.5,
"value_pct": 35.2,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 3,
"away_score_rate": 73.6,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 3,
"home_score_rate": 71.9,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.33,
"home_expected": 1.27,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Mandel United or Draw",
"prob": 63.4
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Mandel United or Hoogstraten",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Hoogstraten",
"prob": 66.2
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Mandel United or Hoogstraten",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 36.6,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 33.8,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Hoogstraten"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 2.3,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.3,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 35.2,
"implied_prob": 27.1,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Hoogstraten Win",
"model_prob": 36.6,
"odds": 3.69
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Hoogstraten",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 24.83,
"draw": 27.19,
"home": 47.98
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 17:56:28",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 17:32:45",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Mandel United",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 47.98,
"gap_pp": -14.22,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 33.75
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 27.19,
"gap_pp": 2.46,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.65
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.83,
"gap_pp": 11.77,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 36.6
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 55.91,
"gap_pp": -7.71,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 44.09,
"gap_pp": 7.71,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.91,
"early": 1.91,
"implied_closing_pct": 47.98,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 47.98,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.37,
"early": 3.37,
"implied_closing_pct": 27.19,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 27.19,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.69,
"early": 3.69,
"implied_closing_pct": 24.83,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 24.83,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.68,
"early": 1.68,
"implied_closing_pct": 55.91,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 55.91,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.13,
"early": 2.13,
"implied_closing_pct": 44.09,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 44.09,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 11.8,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 0.0,
"ev": 0.0,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 8.0,
"market_prob": 0.125,
"market_prob_pct": 12.5,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.27,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1992,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0153,
"edge_pp": 1.5,
"market_prob": 0.4414,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2191,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0168,
"ev": -0.1223,
"implied_prob": 0.5586,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5418
},
"p_final": 0.4567,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0619,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0638,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1992,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0153,
"ev": -0.0638,
"implied_prob": 0.4414,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4567
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1854,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -18.5,
"text": "-18.5%"
},
"ev_under": 0.1137,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 11.4,
"text": "+11.4%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1137,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10252.33,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1664,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.235,
"edge": 0.0084,
"edge_pp": 0.8,
"market_prob": 0.4048,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1664,
"best_odd": 2.235,
"edge": 0.0084,
"ev": -0.0766,
"implied_prob": 0.4048,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4132
},
"p_final": 0.4132,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0169,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0766,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2289,
"best_odd": 1.52,
"edge": -0.0115,
"ev": -0.1128,
"implied_prob": 0.5952,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5837
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0556,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 5.6,
"text": "+5.6%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1552,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.5,
"text": "-15.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0556,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10050.04,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has repriced Mandel United, but the model still strongly favours Hoogstraten.",
"consensus_odds": 3.69,
"decision": "small_edge",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0236,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.4,
"text": "+2.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2483,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0236,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.4,
"text": "+2.4%"
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+11.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3505,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+35.0%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Hoogstraten",
"sort_key": 5218.88,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 14.2,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -14.21,
"hero_label": "Mandel United",
"market_prob_pct": 24.8,
"market_team": "Mandel United",
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"model_team": "Hoogstraten",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 14.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.2,
"summary": "The market has repriced Mandel United, but the model still strongly favours Hoogstraten."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 14.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.2,
"summary": "The market has repriced Mandel United, but the model still strongly favours Hoogstraten."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1137,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3505,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Hoogstraten at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 24.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Hoogstraten as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Mandel United, but the model still strongly favours Hoogstraten.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Hoogstraten",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Hoogstraten \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.61 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +35% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1579947 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.61 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +11.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "61 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Mandel United, but the model still strongly favours Hoogstraten.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +35% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 61,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Mandel United, but the model still strongly favours Hoogstraten.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0236,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.4%",
"consensus_odds": 3.69,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2483,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+11.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2710027100271003,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3505,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+35.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "4/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (14 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 17.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.0,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 61,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 14.21,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 14.21,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.33,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.27,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.33,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.27 \u00b7 Away xG 1.33 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Mandel United",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has repriced Mandel United, but the model still strongly favours Hoogstraten.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 14.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.2,
"summary": "The market has repriced Mandel United, but the model still strongly favours Hoogstraten."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 14.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.2,
"summary": "The market has repriced Mandel United, but the model still strongly favours Hoogstraten."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1137,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3505,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Hoogstraten at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 24.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Hoogstraten as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Mandel United, but the model still strongly favours Hoogstraten.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Hoogstraten",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Hoogstraten \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.61 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +35% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1579947 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.61 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +11.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "61 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Mandel United, but the model still strongly favours Hoogstraten.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +35% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 61,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Mandel United, but the model still strongly favours Hoogstraten.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0236,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.4%",
"consensus_odds": 3.69,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2483,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+11.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2710027100271003,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3505,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+35.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has repriced Mandel United, but the model still strongly favours Hoogstraten.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Mandel United 1.27 xG vs Hoogstraten 1.33 \u2192 Hoogstraten 36.6%",
"Market: Mandel United ~24.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Mandel United +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Hoogstraten with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -14.21,
"fair_prob": 33.77,
"label": "Mandel United",
"market_prob": 47.98,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.45,
"fair_prob": 29.64,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 27.19,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.76,
"fair_prob": 36.59,
"label": "Hoogstraten",
"market_prob": 24.83,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.45,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.65,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.45,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.35,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.93,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 59.43,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.93,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 40.57,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -14.21,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Mandel United",
"market_prob_pct": 47.98,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Mandel United"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Mandel United\u0027s win probability at 48.0%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 14.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 14.21,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Hoogstraten",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 24.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+11.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 11.8,
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+11.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 11.8,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 61,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has repriced Mandel United, but the model still strongly favours Hoogstraten. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Mandel United 1.27 xG vs Hoogstraten 1.33 \u2192 Hoogstraten 36.6%",
"Market: Mandel United ~24.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Mandel United +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Hoogstraten with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -14.21,
"hero_label": "Mandel United",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Mandel United than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Mandel United than the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Mandel United than the current fair estimate."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Mandel United more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks.",
"The market materially disagrees with the model on Mandel United (pricing gap 14.2 pp). The market may be pricing squad quality, tournament context, or lineup strength beyond the Elo framework."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 14.21,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.8,
"max_prob_pct": 36.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Mandel United",
"largest_gap_pp": -14.2,
"lead": "The closing market prices Mandel United higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 14.2,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -14.21,
"edge_pp": -14.21,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Mandel United",
"market_prob_pct": 47.98,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.45,
"edge_pp": 2.45,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 27.19,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 11.76,
"edge_pp": 11.76,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Hoogstraten",
"market_prob_pct": 24.83,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Mandel United than the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Mandel United (24.8%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Hoogstraten, Market \u2192 Mandel United, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 52.36,
"closing_odds": 1.91,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 52.36,
"entry_odds": 1.91,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/8",
"current_odds": 2.15,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.15,
"pick_team": "Mandel United",
"steam_score": 15,
"steam_team_name": "Mandel United",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 14.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "hoogstraten",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Hoogstraten",
"away_team_id": 5825,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/5825.webp",
"away_team_name": "Hoogstraten",
"away_team_public_id": "1RhkXmhlNTOzmM",
"away_team_slug": "hoogstraten",
"country_code": "BE",
"country_display_name": "Belgium",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/be.svg",
"country_id": 16,
"country_name": "Belgium",
"fixture_id": 1579947,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Belgium",
"home_team_display_name": "Mandel United",
"home_team_id": 5868,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/5868.webp",
"home_team_name": "Mandel United",
"home_team_public_id": "40d1h0ILJ0MLJI",
"home_team_slug": "mandel-united",
"ht.home_team_slug": "mandel-united",
"league_country": "Belgium",
"league_country_display": "Belgium",
"league_display_name": "Gi\u1ea3i H\u1ea1ng Nh\u1ea5t Nghi\u1ec7p d\u01b0 B\u1ec9",
"league_id": 487,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/487.webp",
"league_name": "Gi\u1ea3i H\u1ea1ng Nh\u1ea5t Nghi\u1ec7p d\u01b0 B\u1ec9",
"league_public_id": "2grtZWdqaouxyS",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 18:00:00",
"public_id": "2lstvRkA0JkVJe",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2471,
"best_odd": 3.69,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0291,
"ev": 0.0236,
"implied_prob": 0.2483,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2483,
"draw": 0.2719,
"home": 0.4798
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"p_final": 0.2774
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2889,
"best_odd": 3.37,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0071,
"ev": -0.0597,
"implied_prob": 0.2719,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2483,
"draw": 0.2719,
"home": 0.4798
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.279
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.472,
"best_odd": 1.91,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0671,
"ev": -0.2119,
"implied_prob": 0.4798,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2483,
"draw": 0.2719,
"home": 0.4798
},
"model_prob": 0.3375,
"p_final": 0.4126
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.69,
"edge": 0.095,
"ev": 0.3505,
"implied_prob": 0.271,
"model_prob": 0.366
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.37,
"edge": -0.0003,
"ev": -0.0009,
"implied_prob": 0.2967,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.91,
"edge": -0.186,
"ev": -0.3553,
"implied_prob": 0.5236,
"model_prob": 0.3375
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1664,
"alpha_yes": 0.2289,
"best_no_odd": 2.32,
"best_yes_odd": 1.55,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0493,
"edge_yes": -0.0493,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0556,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0766,
"ev_yes": -0.1552,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1128,
"implied_no": 0.4057,
"implied_yes": 0.5943,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1664,
"best_odd": 2.235,
"edge": 0.0084,
"ev": -0.0766,
"implied_prob": 0.4048,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4132
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2289,
"best_odd": 1.52,
"edge": -0.0115,
"ev": -0.1128,
"implied_prob": 0.5952,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5837
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.4132,
"p_final_yes": 0.5837,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2191,
"alpha_under": 0.1992,
"best_over_odd": 1.69,
"best_under_odd": 2.15,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.62,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.05,
"edge_over": -0.0745,
"edge_under": 0.0745,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1854,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1223,
"ev_under": 0.1137,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0638,
"implied_over": 0.5565,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5586,
"implied_under": 0.4435,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4414,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2191,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0168,
"ev": -0.1223,
"implied_prob": 0.5586,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5418
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1992,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0153,
"ev": -0.0638,
"implied_prob": 0.4414,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4567
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5418,
"p_final_under": 0.4567,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1137,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3505,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1137,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.0
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 14.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.2,
"summary": "The market has repriced Mandel United, but the model still strongly favours Hoogstraten."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1137,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3505,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Hoogstraten at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 24.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Hoogstraten as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Mandel United, but the model still strongly favours Hoogstraten.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Hoogstraten",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Hoogstraten \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.61 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +35% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1579947 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.61 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +11.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "61 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Mandel United, but the model still strongly favours Hoogstraten.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +35% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 61,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Mandel United, but the model still strongly favours Hoogstraten.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0236,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.4%",
"consensus_odds": 3.69,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2483,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+11.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2710027100271003,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3505,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+35.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.366,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.69,
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0291,
"ev": 0.0236,
"implied_prob": 0.2483,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.366,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Hoogstraten"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1664,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.235,
"edge": 0.0084,
"market_prob": 0.4048,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1664,
"best_odd": 2.235,
"edge": 0.0084,
"ev": -0.0766,
"implied_prob": 0.4048,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4132
},
"p_final": 0.4132,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0766,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2289,
"best_odd": 1.52,
"edge": -0.0115,
"ev": -0.1128,
"implied_prob": 0.5952,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5837
}
},
"edge": 0.0493,
"ev": 0.0556,
"implied_prob": 0.4057,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1992,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0153,
"market_prob": 0.4414,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2191,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0168,
"ev": -0.1223,
"implied_prob": 0.5586,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5418
},
"p_final": 0.4567,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0638,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1992,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0153,
"ev": -0.0638,
"implied_prob": 0.4414,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4567
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0745,
"ev": 0.1137,
"implied_prob": 0.4435,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1579947,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1137,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.366,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.3375
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Hoogstraten",
"home": "Mandel United"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.041228,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1137,
"implied_prob": 0.4435,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0236,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.4%",
"consensus_odds": 3.69,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2483,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+11.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2710027100271003,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3505,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+35.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1579947,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T17:56:29.890512+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Giải Hạng Nhất Nghiệp dư Bỉ — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Meux | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 |
| 2 | RWDM | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| 3 | Tubize | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 4 | Rochefort | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | Union Saint-Gilloise II | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 6 | Albert Quévy-Mons | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 7 | Onhaye | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 8 | Sporting Charleroi II | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 9 | Standard Liège II | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 10 | Habay-la-Neuve | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 11 | Olympic Charleroi | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 12 | Flénu | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Meux | 6 | 14 | 4 | +10 | 15 |
| 2 | Rochefort | 5 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 10 |
| 3 | Albert Quévy-Mons | 5 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Tubize | 6 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 11 |
| 5 | RWDM | 5 | 8 | 1 | +7 | 15 |
| 6 | Onhaye | 6 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 6 |
| 7 | Union Saint-Gilloise II | 6 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | Standard Liège II | 5 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 4 |
| 9 | Habay-la-Neuve | 5 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 4 |
| 10 | Flénu | 5 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 1 |
| 11 | Sporting Charleroi II | 5 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | Olympic Charleroi | 5 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 4 |
