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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (5 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Meux Meux ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-4 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.32
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Meux win · Flénu 1–4 Meux
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
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"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "7173e5142a0b6cdd26a4843a4ba804dbe5c55c52931302ca05d64cb27a5a06f5",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.32,
"away_win_prob": 0.3611,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.77,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.92,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.28,
"home_win_prob": 0.3424,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or Meux and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Meux"
},
"away_xg": 1.32,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Meux",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0339,
"edge_gap": 0.0185,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3948,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 36.1,
"draw": 29.7,
"home": 34.2
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.32
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.32,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Meux Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.53,
"market_odds": 2.32,
"model_odds": 2.77,
"overround": 9.2,
"prob_edge": -7.0,
"value_pct": -16.2,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 2,
"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 3,
"away_score_rate": 73.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 3,
"home_score_rate": 72.2,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.32,
"home_expected": 1.28,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Fl\u00e9nu or Draw",
"prob": 63.8
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Fl\u00e9nu or Meux",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Meux",
"prob": 65.7
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Fl\u00e9nu or Meux",
"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 36.1,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 34.2,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Meux"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": -16.2,
"implied_prob": 43.1,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Meux Win",
"model_prob": 36.1,
"odds": 2.32
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Meux",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 39.48,
"draw": 27.92,
"home": 32.6
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-13 13:00:37",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-13 12:31:36",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Fl\u00e9nu",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 32.6,
"gap_pp": 1.64,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 34.24
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 27.92,
"gap_pp": 1.74,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.67
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 39.48,
"gap_pp": -3.39,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 36.09
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 53.58,
"gap_pp": -5.38,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 46.42,
"gap_pp": 5.38,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.81,
"early": 2.81,
"implied_closing_pct": 32.6,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 32.6,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.28,
"early": 3.28,
"implied_closing_pct": 27.92,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 27.92,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.32,
"early": 2.32,
"implied_closing_pct": 39.48,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 39.48,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.75,
"early": 1.75,
"implied_closing_pct": 53.58,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 53.58,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.02,
"early": 2.02,
"implied_closing_pct": 46.42,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 46.42,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 5.4,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -0.8,
"ev": -0.0625,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.5,
"market_prob": 0.1333,
"market_prob_pct": 13.3,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.28,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.208,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.97,
"edge": 0.0105,
"edge_pp": 1.1,
"market_prob": 0.4676,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2288,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": -0.0115,
"ev": -0.0989,
"implied_prob": 0.5324,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5209
},
"p_final": 0.4781,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0205,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0582,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.208,
"best_odd": 1.97,
"edge": 0.0105,
"ev": -0.0582,
"implied_prob": 0.4676,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4781
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1324,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -13.2,
"text": "-13.2%"
},
"ev_under": 0.0464,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 4.6,
"text": "+4.6%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0464,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10041.76,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2134,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0074,
"edge_pp": 0.7,
"market_prob": 0.4205,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2134,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0074,
"ev": -0.0801,
"implied_prob": 0.4205,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4278
},
"p_final": 0.4278,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0218,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0801,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2347,
"best_odd": 1.56,
"edge": -0.0081,
"ev": -0.1086,
"implied_prob": 0.5795,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5714
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.001,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.1,
"text": "+0.1%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1389,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -13.9,
"text": "-13.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.001,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 5200.8,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"consensus_odds": 2.32,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.1176,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -11.8,
"text": "-11.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3948,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0638,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -6.4,
"text": "-6.4%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1627,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-16.3%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Meux",
"sort_key": 1784.05,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 3.4,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -3.37,
"hero_label": "Meux",
"market_prob_pct": 39.5,
"market_team": "Meux",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "Meux",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Meux)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Meux)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0464,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0464,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 82,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Meux at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Meux as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.4,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Meux",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +4.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +4.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +4.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+4.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Meux).",
"Decision strength: 4.1/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 79,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1176,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.32,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3948,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4310344827586207,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1627,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-16.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "1/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.125,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 1.2,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 79,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 3.37,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 3.37,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.32,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.28,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.28 \u00b7 Away xG 1.32 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.8,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +0.8%",
"steam_team": "Fl\u00e9nu",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 82,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 83,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 83,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Meux)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Meux)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0464,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0464,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 82,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Meux at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Meux as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.4,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Meux",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +4.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +4.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +4.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+4.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Meux).",
"Decision strength: 4.1/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 79,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1176,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.32,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3948,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4310344827586207,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1627,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-16.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Fl\u00e9nu 1.28 xG vs Meux 1.32 \u2192 Meux 36.1%",
"Market: Meux ~39.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Fl\u00e9nu odds \u2191 +0.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Meux with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 1.64,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Fl\u00e9nu",
"market_prob": 32.6,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.73,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 27.92,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.37,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Meux",
"market_prob": 39.48,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.9,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 53.1,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.9,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 46.9,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.31,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 57.81,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.31,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 42.19,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -3.37,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Meux",
"market_prob_pct": 39.48,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Fl\u00e9nu"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.37,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Meux",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 39.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-3.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -3.4,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-3.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -3.4,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 79,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Meux \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 82,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 83,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 83,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Fl\u00e9nu 1.28 xG vs Meux 1.32 \u2192 Meux 36.1%",
"Market: Meux ~39.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Fl\u00e9nu odds \u2191 +0.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Meux with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -3.37,
"hero_label": "Meux",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Fl\u00e9nu odds lengthened \u2191 +0.8%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, Fl\u00e9nu has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.8%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (1/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, Fl\u00e9nu has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.8%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (1/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Fl\u00e9nu has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (1/8), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 3.37,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Meux",
"largest_gap_pp": -3.4,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.4,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 1.64,
"edge_pp": 1.64,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Fl\u00e9nu",
"market_prob_pct": 32.6,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.73,
"edge_pp": 1.73,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 27.92,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -3.37,
"edge_pp": -3.37,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Meux",
"market_prob_pct": 39.48,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Meux (39.5%).",
"Meux \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 43.1,
"closing_odds": 2.32,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 43.1,
"entry_odds": 2.32,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/8",
"current_odds": 2.62,
"move_display": "\u2191 +0.8%",
"open_odds": 2.6,
"pick_team": "Fl\u00e9nu",
"steam_score": 0,
"steam_team_name": "Fl\u00e9nu",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 3.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "meux",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Meux",
"away_team_id": 5872,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/5872.webp",
"away_team_name": "Meux",
"away_team_public_id": "0JVAoEVburwOsG",
"away_team_slug": "meux",
"country_code": "BE",
"country_display_name": "Belgium",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/be.svg",
"country_id": 16,
"country_name": "Belgium",
"fixture_id": 1579811,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Belgium",
"home_team_display_name": "Fl\u00e9nu",
"home_team_id": 19779,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/19779.webp",
"home_team_name": "Fl\u00e9nu",
"home_team_public_id": "3iBtcyjqzAufGd",
"home_team_slug": "flenu",
"ht.home_team_slug": "flenu",
"league_country": "Belgium",
"league_country_display": "Belgium",
"league_display_name": "Gi\u1ea3i H\u1ea1ng Nh\u1ea5t Nghi\u1ec7p d\u01b0 B\u1ec9",
"league_id": 487,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/487.webp",
"league_name": "Gi\u1ea3i H\u1ea1ng Nh\u1ea5t Nghi\u1ec7p d\u01b0 B\u1ec9",
"league_public_id": "2grtZWdqaouxyS",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-13 13:00:00",
"public_id": "5tncplzIpdWPGx",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4271,
"best_odd": 2.32,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0145,
"ev": -0.1176,
"implied_prob": 0.3948,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3948,
"draw": 0.2792,
"home": 0.326
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.3803
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2922,
"best_odd": 3.28,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0051,
"ev": -0.0674,
"implied_prob": 0.2792,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3948,
"draw": 0.2792,
"home": 0.326
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.2843
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4389,
"best_odd": 2.81,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0072,
"ev": -0.0638,
"implied_prob": 0.326,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3948,
"draw": 0.2792,
"home": 0.326
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.3332
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.32,
"edge": -0.0701,
"ev": -0.1626,
"implied_prob": 0.431,
"model_prob": 0.3609
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.28,
"edge": -0.0082,
"ev": -0.0269,
"implied_prob": 0.3049,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.81,
"edge": -0.0135,
"ev": -0.0379,
"implied_prob": 0.3559,
"model_prob": 0.3424
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2134,
"alpha_yes": 0.2347,
"best_no_odd": 2.2,
"best_yes_odd": 1.58,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0331,
"edge_yes": -0.0331,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.001,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0801,
"ev_yes": -0.1389,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1086,
"implied_no": 0.4219,
"implied_yes": 0.5781,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2134,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0074,
"ev": -0.0801,
"implied_prob": 0.4205,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4278
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2347,
"best_odd": 1.56,
"edge": -0.0081,
"ev": -0.1086,
"implied_prob": 0.5795,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5714
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.4278,
"p_final_yes": 0.5714,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2288,
"alpha_under": 0.208,
"best_over_odd": 1.8,
"best_under_odd": 2.02,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.73,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.97,
"edge_over": -0.049,
"edge_under": 0.049,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1324,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0989,
"ev_under": 0.0464,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0582,
"implied_over": 0.531,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5324,
"implied_under": 0.469,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4676,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2288,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": -0.0115,
"ev": -0.0989,
"implied_prob": 0.5324,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5209
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.208,
"best_odd": 1.97,
"edge": 0.0105,
"ev": -0.0582,
"implied_prob": 0.4676,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4781
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5209,
"p_final_under": 0.4781,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0464,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0464,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0464,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.1,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.1,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.1
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Meux)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0464,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0464,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 82,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Meux at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Meux as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.4,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Meux",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +4.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +4.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +4.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+4.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Meux).",
"Decision strength: 4.1/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 79,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1176,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.32,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3948,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4310344827586207,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1627,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-16.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0464,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.469,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "under",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.32,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0145,
"ev": -0.1176,
"implied_prob": 0.3948,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Meux"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2134,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0074,
"market_prob": 0.4205,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2134,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0074,
"ev": -0.0801,
"implied_prob": 0.4205,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4278
},
"p_final": 0.4278,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0801,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2347,
"best_odd": 1.56,
"edge": -0.0081,
"ev": -0.1086,
"implied_prob": 0.5795,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5714
}
},
"edge": 0.0331,
"ev": 0.001,
"implied_prob": 0.4219,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.208,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.97,
"edge": 0.0105,
"market_prob": 0.4676,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2288,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": -0.0115,
"ev": -0.0989,
"implied_prob": 0.5324,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5209
},
"p_final": 0.4781,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0582,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.208,
"best_odd": 1.97,
"edge": 0.0105,
"ev": -0.0582,
"implied_prob": 0.4676,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4781
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.049,
"ev": 0.0464,
"implied_prob": 0.469,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1579811,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0464,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3609,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3424
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Meux",
"home": "Fl\u00e9nu"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1176,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.32,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3948,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4310344827586207,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1627,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-16.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1579811,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-13T13:00:38.978618+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Flénu & Meux!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Giải Hạng Nhất Nghiệp dư Bỉ — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Meux | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 |
| 2 | RWDM | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| 3 | Tubize | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 4 | Rochefort | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | Union Saint-Gilloise II | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 6 | Albert Quévy-Mons | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 7 | Onhaye | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 8 | Sporting Charleroi II | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 9 | Standard Liège II | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 10 | Habay-la-Neuve | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 11 | Olympic Charleroi | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 12 | Flénu | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Meux | 6 | 14 | 4 | +10 | 15 |
| 2 | Rochefort | 5 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 10 |
| 3 | Albert Quévy-Mons | 5 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Tubize | 6 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 11 |
| 5 | RWDM | 5 | 8 | 1 | +7 | 15 |
| 6 | Onhaye | 6 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 6 |
| 7 | Union Saint-Gilloise II | 6 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | Standard Liège II | 5 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 4 |
| 9 | Habay-la-Neuve | 5 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 4 |
| 10 | Flénu | 5 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 1 |
| 11 | Sporting Charleroi II | 5 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | Olympic Charleroi | 5 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 4 |
