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Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (2 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Không ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Znojmo Znojmo ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 2-0 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.55
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Znojmo win · Znojmo 2–0 Žďár nad Sázavou
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.2496,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.47,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.531,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2873,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 4.01,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.48,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.16,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.53,
"home_win_prob": 0.4632,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Znojmo or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Znojmo"
},
"away_xg": 1.07,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Znojmo",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"edge": -0.1174,
"edge_gap": 0.1757,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.5806,
"model_prob": 0.4631,
"pick_type": "no_value",
"probabilities": {
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"reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
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"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"odd": 1.55
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
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"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
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"label": "Home",
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"market_odds": 1.55,
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"overround": 11.1,
"prob_edge": -18.2,
"value_pct": -28.2,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 5,
"away_score_rate": 65.7,
"home_clean_sheet": 2,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 5,
"home_score_rate": 78.3,
"no_prob": 46.9,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 53.0,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 53.0
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.07,
"home_expected": 1.53,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.2
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{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 11.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 7.9
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Znojmo or Draw",
"prob": 75.0
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Znojmo or \u017d\u010f\u00e1r nad S\u00e1zavou",
"prob": 71.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or \u017d\u010f\u00e1r nad S\u00e1zavou",
"prob": 53.7
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Znojmo or Draw",
"pick_prob": 75.0
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 25.0,
"draw_pct": 28.7,
"home_pct": 46.3,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Znojmo"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 2.2,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 2.4,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
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"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"edge": 29.1,
"implied_prob": 22.2,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 28.7,
"odds": 4.5
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "\u017d\u010f\u00e1r nad S\u00e1zavou",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 21.95,
"draw": 20.0,
"home": 58.06
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Bet365",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-13 08:25:30",
"early_bookmaker": "Bet365",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-13 08:00:55",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Znojmo",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 58.06,
"gap_pp": -11.74,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 46.31
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 20.0,
"gap_pp": 8.75,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 28.74
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 21.95,
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 24.95
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 68.81,
"gap_pp": -20.61,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 31.19,
"gap_pp": 20.61,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.55,
"early": 1.55,
"implied_closing_pct": 58.06,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 58.06,
"kind": "1x2_h"
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{
"closing": 4.5,
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"implied_closing_pct": 20.0,
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"implied_early_pct": 20.0,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 4.1,
"early": 4.1,
"implied_closing_pct": 21.95,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 21.95,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.36,
"early": 1.36,
"implied_closing_pct": 68.81,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 68.81,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 3.0,
"early": 3.0,
"implied_closing_pct": 31.19,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 31.19,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 20.6,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 2.2,
"ev": 0.22,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 10.0,
"market_prob": 0.1,
"market_prob_pct": 10.0,
"model_prob": 0.122,
"model_prob_pct": 12.2,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.2
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.2
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 11.4
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 7.9
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.53,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.0879,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.94,
"edge": 0.0177,
"edge_pp": 1.8,
"market_prob": 0.3163,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1208,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.0244,
"ev": -0.1033,
"implied_prob": 0.6837,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6593
},
"p_final": 0.334,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 20.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5229,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.018,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.0879,
"best_odd": 2.94,
"edge": 0.0177,
"ev": -0.018,
"implied_prob": 0.3163,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.334
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3445,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -34.4,
"text": "-34.4%"
},
"ev_under": 0.554,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 55.4,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.554,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10648.6,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.104,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.66,
"edge": 0.0121,
"edge_pp": 1.2,
"market_prob": 0.3528,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.469,
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.104,
"best_odd": 2.66,
"edge": 0.0121,
"ev": -0.0294,
"implied_prob": 0.3528,
"model_prob": 0.469,
"p_final": 0.3649
},
"p_final": 0.3649,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2475,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0294,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1428,
"best_odd": 1.45,
"edge": -0.0167,
"ev": -0.0858,
"implied_prob": 0.6472,
"model_prob": 0.53,
"p_final": 0.6305
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2475,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 24.8,
"text": "+24.8%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.2315,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -23.2,
"text": "-23.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.2475,
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"no_prob": 46.9,
"sort_key": 10222.75,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 53.0
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 1.55,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1901,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -19.0,
"text": "-19.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5806,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0317,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.2,
"text": "-3.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4631,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.8,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2822,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.2%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Znojmo",
"sort_key": 1792.075,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 816.6,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.2
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 11.8,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -11.74,
"hero_label": "Znojmo",
"market_prob_pct": 58.1,
"market_team": "Znojmo",
"model_prob_pct": 46.3,
"model_team": "Znojmo",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Znojmo)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Znojmo)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.554,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.554,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Znojmo at 46.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 58.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Znojmo as the value side (46.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Znojmo",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +55.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +55.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 7.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +55.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+55.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Znojmo).",
"Decision strength: 7.3/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1901,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.55,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5806,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4631,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6451612903225806,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2822,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 13.3,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.46"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.46
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "3/3",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (12 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 65,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 11.74,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 11.74,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.07,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 13.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.53,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.53,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.53 \u00b7 Away xG 1.07 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +13%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Znojmo",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 46,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Znojmo)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Znojmo)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.554,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.554,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Znojmo at 46.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 58.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Znojmo as the value side (46.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Znojmo",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +55.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +55.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 7.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +55.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+55.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Znojmo).",
"Decision strength: 7.3/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1901,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.55,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5806,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4631,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6451612903225806,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2822,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 13.3,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.46"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.46
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Znojmo 1.53 xG vs \u017d\u010f\u00e1r nad S\u00e1zavou 1.07 \u2192 Znojmo 46.3%",
"Market: Znojmo ~58.1% implied",
"Market Steam: Znojmo +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Znojmo projects stronger on expected goals (+0.46 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -11.74,
"fair_prob": 46.32,
"label": "Znojmo",
"market_prob": 58.06,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.73,
"fair_prob": 28.73,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 20.0,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.01,
"fair_prob": 24.96,
"label": "\u017d\u010f\u00e1r nad S\u00e1zavou",
"market_prob": 21.95,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -20.17,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 68.37,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 20.17,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 31.63,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.72,
"fair_prob": 53.0,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 64.72,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.62,
"fair_prob": 46.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 35.28,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -11.74,
"fair_prob_pct": 46.32,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Znojmo",
"market_prob_pct": 58.06,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Znojmo"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Znojmo\u0027s win probability at 58.1%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 46.3%, a difference of 11.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 11.74,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Znojmo",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 58.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-11.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -11.8,
"model_prob_pct": 46.3,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-11.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -11.8,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 65,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Znojmo \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 46,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Znojmo 1.53 xG vs \u017d\u010f\u00e1r nad S\u00e1zavou 1.07 \u2192 Znojmo 46.3%",
"Market: Znojmo ~58.1% implied",
"Market Steam: Znojmo +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Znojmo projects stronger on expected goals (+0.46 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -11.74,
"hero_label": "Znojmo",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Znojmo than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Znojmo.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Znojmo than the current fair estimate.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Znojmo."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Znojmo more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Znojmo (+0.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (3/3) supports the current market view on Znojmo."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 11.74,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 17.6 pp (at 46.3%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 17.6,
"max_prob_pct": 46.3,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Znojmo",
"largest_gap_pp": -11.7,
"lead": "The closing market prices Znojmo higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 11.7,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -11.74,
"edge_pp": -11.74,
"fair_prob_pct": 46.32,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Znojmo",
"market_prob_pct": 58.06,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 8.73,
"edge_pp": 8.73,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.73,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 20.0,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.01,
"edge_pp": 3.01,
"fair_prob_pct": 24.96,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "\u017d\u010f\u00e1r nad S\u00e1zavou",
"market_prob_pct": 21.95,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Znojmo.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Znojmo (58.1%).",
"Znojmo \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 64.52,
"closing_odds": 1.55,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 64.52,
"entry_odds": 1.55,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/3",
"current_odds": 1.53,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 1.53,
"pick_team": "Znojmo",
"steam_score": 38,
"steam_team_name": "Znojmo",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 11.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "zdar-nad-sazavou",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "\u017d\u010f\u00e1r nad S\u00e1zavou",
"away_team_id": 7389,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/7389.webp",
"away_team_name": "\u017d\u010f\u00e1r nad S\u00e1zavou",
"away_team_public_id": "54YNDoZ36uWb9b",
"away_team_slug": "zdar-nad-sazavou",
"country_code": "CZ",
"country_display_name": "Czech-Republic",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/cz.svg",
"country_id": 43,
"country_name": "Czech-Republic",
"fixture_id": 1579113,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Czech-Republic",
"home_team_display_name": "Znojmo",
"home_team_id": 3734,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3734.webp",
"home_team_name": "Znojmo",
"home_team_public_id": "2oVKS1UWbR2UZI",
"home_team_slug": "znojmo",
"ht.home_team_slug": "znojmo",
"league_country": "Czech-Republic",
"league_country_display": "Czech-Republic",
"league_display_name": "H\u1ea1ng T\u01b0 - Divizie D C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a S\u00e9c",
"league_id": 353,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/353.webp",
"league_name": "H\u1ea1ng T\u01b0 - Divizie D C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a S\u00e9c",
"league_public_id": "3Nrf5lgTEMtgLR",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-13 08:30:00",
"public_id": "5XomVWNhiMN6vk",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Znojmo",
"venue_name": "Mestsky stadion v Hornim parku"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_ou",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for O/U odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.191,
"best_odd": 4.1,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0057,
"ev": -0.0767,
"implied_prob": 0.2195,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2195,
"draw": 0.2,
"home": 0.5806
},
"model_prob": 0.2495,
"p_final": 0.2252
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1738,
"best_odd": 4.5,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0152,
"ev": -0.0317,
"implied_prob": 0.2,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2195,
"draw": 0.2,
"home": 0.5806
},
"model_prob": 0.2874,
"p_final": 0.2152
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4943,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0581,
"ev": -0.1901,
"implied_prob": 0.5806,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2195,
"draw": 0.2,
"home": 0.5806
},
"model_prob": 0.4631,
"p_final": 0.5225
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.1,
"edge": 0.0055,
"ev": 0.0228,
"implied_prob": 0.2439,
"model_prob": 0.2495
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.5,
"edge": 0.0652,
"ev": 0.2935,
"implied_prob": 0.2222,
"model_prob": 0.2874
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.55,
"edge": -0.1821,
"ev": -0.2822,
"implied_prob": 0.6452,
"model_prob": 0.4631
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.104,
"alpha_yes": 0.1428,
"best_no_odd": 2.66,
"best_yes_odd": 1.45,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1162,
"edge_yes": -0.1172,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2475,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0294,
"ev_yes": -0.2315,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0858,
"implied_no": 0.3528,
"implied_yes": 0.6472,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.104,
"best_odd": 2.66,
"edge": 0.0121,
"ev": -0.0294,
"implied_prob": 0.3528,
"model_prob": 0.469,
"p_final": 0.3649
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1428,
"best_odd": 1.45,
"edge": -0.0167,
"ev": -0.0858,
"implied_prob": 0.6472,
"model_prob": 0.53,
"p_final": 0.6305
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"p_final_no": 0.3649,
"p_final_yes": 0.6305,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1208,
"alpha_under": 0.0879,
"best_over_odd": 1.36,
"best_under_odd": 3.0,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.36,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.94,
"edge_over": -0.2017,
"edge_under": 0.2017,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3445,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1033,
"ev_under": 0.554,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.018,
"implied_over": 0.6837,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6837,
"implied_under": 0.3163,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3163,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1208,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.0244,
"ev": -0.1033,
"implied_prob": 0.6837,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6593
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.0879,
"best_odd": 2.94,
"edge": 0.0177,
"ev": -0.018,
"implied_prob": 0.3163,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.334
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6593,
"p_final_under": 0.334,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.554,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.554,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.554,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 7.3,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 7.3,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.8
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Znojmo)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.554,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.554,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Znojmo at 46.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 58.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Znojmo as the value side (46.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Znojmo",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +55.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +55.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 7.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +55.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+55.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Znojmo).",
"Decision strength: 7.3/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1901,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.55,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5806,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4631,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6451612903225806,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2822,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 13.3,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.46"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.46
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.53,
"draw_prob": 0.2874,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4631,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.46
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.55,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0581,
"ev": -0.1901,
"implied_prob": 0.5806,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.4631,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Znojmo"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.104,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.66,
"edge": 0.0121,
"market_prob": 0.3528,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.469,
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.104,
"best_odd": 2.66,
"edge": 0.0121,
"ev": -0.0294,
"implied_prob": 0.3528,
"model_prob": 0.469,
"p_final": 0.3649
},
"p_final": 0.3649,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0294,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1428,
"best_odd": 1.45,
"edge": -0.0167,
"ev": -0.0858,
"implied_prob": 0.6472,
"model_prob": 0.53,
"p_final": 0.6305
}
},
"edge": 0.1162,
"ev": 0.2475,
"implied_prob": 0.3528,
"model_prob": 0.469,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.0879,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.94,
"edge": 0.0177,
"market_prob": 0.3163,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1208,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.0244,
"ev": -0.1033,
"implied_prob": 0.6837,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6593
},
"p_final": 0.334,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.018,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.0879,
"best_odd": 2.94,
"edge": 0.0177,
"ev": -0.018,
"implied_prob": 0.3163,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.334
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.2017,
"ev": 0.554,
"implied_prob": 0.3163,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1579113,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.554,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2495,
"draw": 0.2874,
"home": 0.4631
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2475,
"implied_prob": 0.3528,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.469,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2475,
"implied_prob": 0.3528,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.469,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "\u017d\u010f\u00e1r nad S\u00e1zavou",
"home": "Znojmo"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.176775,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.554,
"implied_prob": 0.3163,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1901,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.55,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5806,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4631,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6451612903225806,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2822,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1579113,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-13T08:25:31.648502+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Znojmo & Žďár nad Sázavou!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Hạng Tư - Divizie D Cộng hòa Séc — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tatran Bohunice | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 2 | Znojmo | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 3 | Velká Bíteš | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 4 | Kuřim | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 5 | Havlíčkův Brod | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Sparta Brno | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | FS Třebíč | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 8 | Pelhřimov | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Sokol Tasovice | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 10 | Žďár nad Sázavou | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 11 | Chotebor | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 12 | Bystrc Kníničky | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 13 | Velké Meziříčí | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 14 | Humpolec | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 15 | Ždírec nad Doubravou | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 16 | Bedrichov | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tatran Bohunice | 8 | 21 | 8 | +13 | 17 |
| 2 | Kuřim | 7 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 13 |
| 3 | Znojmo | 7 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 14 |
| 4 | Pelhřimov | 7 | 16 | 9 | +7 | 11 |
| 5 | Havlíčkův Brod | 8 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 13 |
| 6 | Žďár nad Sázavou | 8 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 8 |
| 7 | Sokol Tasovice | 7 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 10 |
| 8 | Sparta Brno | 8 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 13 |
| 9 | Ždírec nad Doubravou | 7 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 5 |
| 10 | FS Třebíč | 7 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 12 |
| 11 | Chotebor | 7 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 8 |
| 12 | Velká Bíteš | 7 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 14 |
| 13 | Bystrc Kníničky | 7 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Velké Meziříčí | 7 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 6 |
| 15 | Humpolec | 7 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 5 |
| 16 | Bedrichov | 7 | 5 | 22 | -17 | 2 |
