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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (4 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Ringsted Brønshøj BK ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-3 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.69
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Brønshøj BK win · Ringsted 1–3 Brønshøj BK
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "5dd5bf29ab8bd8022eb31c61d19073b26cd7004c8e2cd12e3507585e348bafff",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.28,
"away_win_prob": 0.3424,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.92,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.77,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.32,
"home_win_prob": 0.3611,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Br\u00f8nsh\u00f8j BK",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Br\u00f8nsh\u00f8j BK"
},
"away_xg": 1.28,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Ringsted",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.1375,
"edge_gap": 0.0185,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.2234,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 34.2,
"draw": 29.7,
"home": 36.1
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 4.05
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 4.05,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Ringsted Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 4.48,
"market_odds": 4.05,
"model_odds": 2.77,
"overround": 10.5,
"prob_edge": 11.4,
"value_pct": 46.2,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 3,
"away_failed_to_score": 2,
"away_played": 6,
"away_score_rate": 72.2,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 2,
"home_played": 6,
"home_score_rate": 73.3,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.28,
"home_expected": 1.32,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Ringsted or Draw",
"prob": 65.7
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Ringsted or Br\u00f8nsh\u00f8j BK",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Br\u00f8nsh\u00f8j BK",
"prob": 63.8
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Ringsted or Br\u00f8nsh\u00f8j BK",
"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 34.2,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 36.1,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Ringsted"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.3,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.2,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 46.2,
"implied_prob": 24.7,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Ringsted Win",
"model_prob": 36.1,
"odds": 4.05
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Br\u00f8nsh\u00f8j BK",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 53.53,
"draw": 24.13,
"home": 22.34
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-13 11:01:15",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-13 10:31:19",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Ringsted",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 22.34,
"gap_pp": 13.75,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 36.09
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.13,
"gap_pp": 5.54,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.67
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 53.53,
"gap_pp": -19.3,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 34.24
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 59.9,
"gap_pp": -11.7,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 40.1,
"gap_pp": 11.7,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 4.05,
"early": 4.05,
"implied_closing_pct": 22.34,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 22.34,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.75,
"early": 3.75,
"implied_closing_pct": 24.13,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 24.13,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 1.69,
"early": 1.69,
"implied_closing_pct": 53.53,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 53.53,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.54,
"early": 1.54,
"implied_closing_pct": 59.9,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 59.9,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.3,
"early": 2.3,
"implied_closing_pct": 40.1,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 40.1,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 13.8,
"kind": "1x2_h"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 0.0,
"ev": 0.0,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 8.0,
"market_prob": 0.125,
"market_prob_pct": 12.5,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.32,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1513,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.23,
"edge": 0.0161,
"edge_pp": 1.6,
"market_prob": 0.4116,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.208,
"best_odd": 1.56,
"edge": -0.0221,
"ev": -0.1166,
"implied_prob": 0.5884,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5663
},
"p_final": 0.4277,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1551,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0462,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1513,
"best_odd": 2.23,
"edge": 0.0161,
"ev": -0.0462,
"implied_prob": 0.4116,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4277
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1951,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -19.5,
"text": "-19.5%"
},
"ev_under": 0.1914,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 19.1,
"text": "+19.1%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1914,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10322.26,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1676,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.24,
"edge": 0.0077,
"edge_pp": 0.8,
"market_prob": 0.409,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1676,
"best_odd": 2.24,
"edge": 0.0077,
"ev": -0.0666,
"implied_prob": 0.409,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4167
},
"p_final": 0.4167,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0192,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0666,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2304,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"edge": -0.0106,
"ev": -0.1003,
"implied_prob": 0.591,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5804
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0465,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 4.7,
"text": "+4.7%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1552,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.5,
"text": "-15.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0465,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10041.85,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Ringsted, but the model still strongly favours Ringsted.",
"consensus_odds": 4.05,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0068,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.7,
"text": "-0.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2234,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0068,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.7,
"text": "-0.7%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4616,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+46.2%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Ringsted",
"sort_key": 1798.3,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/7",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +8.6%",
"alert_team": "Ringsted",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 19.3,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -19.29,
"hero_label": "Br\u00f8nsh\u00f8j BK",
"market_prob_pct": 22.3,
"market_team": "Br\u00f8nsh\u00f8j BK",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "Ringsted",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 38,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 19.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 19.3,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Ringsted, but the model still strongly favours Ringsted."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 19.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 19.3,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Ringsted, but the model still strongly favours Ringsted."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1914,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4618,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ringsted at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 22.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ringsted as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Ringsted, but the model still strongly favours Ringsted.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ringsted",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Ringsted \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.82 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +46% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1577777 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.82 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +19.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +19.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Ringsted, but the model still strongly favours Ringsted.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +46% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 55,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Ringsted, but the model still strongly favours Ringsted.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0068,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.7%",
"consensus_odds": 4.05,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2234,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2469135802469136,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4616,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+46.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "5/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7142857142857143,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (19 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 15.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.1,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 55,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 19.29,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 19.29,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.28,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.32,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.32 \u00b7 Away xG 1.28 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.6,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +8.6%",
"steam_team": "Ringsted",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 10,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 10,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Ringsted, but the model still strongly favours Ringsted.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 19.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 19.3,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Ringsted, but the model still strongly favours Ringsted."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 19.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 19.3,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Ringsted, but the model still strongly favours Ringsted."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1914,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4618,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ringsted at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 22.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ringsted as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Ringsted, but the model still strongly favours Ringsted.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ringsted",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Ringsted \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.82 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +46% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1577777 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.82 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +19.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +19.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Ringsted, but the model still strongly favours Ringsted.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +46% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 55,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Ringsted, but the model still strongly favours Ringsted.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0068,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.7%",
"consensus_odds": 4.05,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2234,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2469135802469136,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4616,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+46.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Ringsted, but the model still strongly favours Ringsted.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Ringsted 1.32 xG vs Br\u00f8nsh\u00f8j BK 1.28 \u2192 Ringsted 36.1%",
"Market: Br\u00f8nsh\u00f8j BK ~22.3% implied",
"Market Drift: Ringsted odds \u2191 +8.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Ringsted, but the market has moved away from Ringsted.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 13.77,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Ringsted",
"market_prob": 22.34,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.52,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.13,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -19.29,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Br\u00f8nsh\u00f8j BK",
"market_prob": 53.53,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.2,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 58.4,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.2,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 41.6,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.78,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 59.28,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.78,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 40.72,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -19.29,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Br\u00f8nsh\u00f8j BK",
"market_prob_pct": 53.53,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Ringsted"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Br\u00f8nsh\u00f8j BK\u0027s win probability at 53.5%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 19.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 19.29,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Ringsted",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 22.3,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+13.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 13.8,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+13.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 13.8,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 55,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Ringsted, but the model still strongly favours Ringsted. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 10,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 10,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Ringsted 1.32 xG vs Br\u00f8nsh\u00f8j BK 1.28 \u2192 Ringsted 36.1%",
"Market: Br\u00f8nsh\u00f8j BK ~22.3% implied",
"Market Drift: Ringsted odds \u2191 +8.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Ringsted, but the market has moved away from Ringsted.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -19.29,
"hero_label": "Br\u00f8nsh\u00f8j BK",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Ringsted odds lengthened \u2191 +8.6%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, Ringsted has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 8.6%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Br\u00f8nsh\u00f8j BK than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from Ringsted \u2014 odds lengthened by 8.6% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Br\u00f8nsh\u00f8j BK than the current fair estimate.",
"However, Ringsted has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 8.6%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Ringsted \u2014 odds lengthened by 8.6% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Br\u00f8nsh\u00f8j BK more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Ringsted has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 8.6%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (5/7) supports the current market view on Ringsted."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 19.29,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Br\u00f8nsh\u00f8j BK",
"largest_gap_pp": -19.3,
"lead": "The closing market prices Br\u00f8nsh\u00f8j BK higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 19.3,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 13.77,
"edge_pp": 13.77,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Ringsted",
"market_prob_pct": 22.34,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.52,
"edge_pp": 5.52,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.13,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -19.29,
"edge_pp": -19.29,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Br\u00f8nsh\u00f8j BK",
"market_prob_pct": 53.53,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Ringsted \u2014 odds lengthened by 8.6% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Br\u00f8nsh\u00f8j BK (22.3%).",
"Ringsted odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +8.6%, 5/7) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Ringsted, Market \u2192 Br\u00f8nsh\u00f8j BK, while Ringsted odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 59.17,
"closing_odds": 1.69,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 59.17,
"entry_odds": 1.69,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.6
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "5/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.8,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +8.6%",
"move_pct_abs": 8.6,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 53h 52m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Ringsted (8.6%, 5/7) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Modest lengthening \u2014 treat as drift tracking rather than steam."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.6,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.05",
"3.77",
"3.50"
],
"display": "4.32 \u2192 3.45 \u2192 3.80",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 53h 52m",
"pick_team": "Ringsted",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.32"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.45"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.80"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.5,
4.05,
3.8
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,8.2",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.50"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.05"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.80"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.5,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Ringsted",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.8,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +8.6%",
"open_odds": 3.5,
"summary": "Market moved away from Ringsted while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Ringsted",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 38,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/7",
"current_odds": 3.8,
"move_display": "\u2191 +8.6%",
"open_odds": 3.5,
"pick_team": "Ringsted",
"steam_score": 38,
"steam_team_name": "Ringsted",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 19.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "brnshj",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Br\u00f8nsh\u00f8j BK",
"away_team_id": 6012,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/6012.webp",
"away_team_name": "Br\u00f8nsh\u00f8j BK",
"away_team_public_id": "19guzGuKvnGklq",
"away_team_slug": "brnshj",
"country_code": "DK",
"country_display_name": "Denmark",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/dk.svg",
"country_id": 44,
"country_name": "Denmark",
"fixture_id": 1577777,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Denmark",
"home_team_display_name": "Ringsted",
"home_team_id": 11532,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/11532.webp",
"home_team_name": "Ringsted",
"home_team_public_id": "3af1N5Ie5Za6Yq",
"home_team_slug": "ringsted",
"ht.home_team_slug": "ringsted",
"league_country": "Denmark",
"league_country_display": "Denmark",
"league_display_name": "Gi\u1ea3i H\u1ea1ng Ba \u0110an M\u1ea1ch",
"league_id": 862,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/862.webp",
"league_name": "Gi\u1ea3i H\u1ea1ng Ba \u0110an M\u1ea1ch",
"league_public_id": "0zfnC3zAqnh1zb",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-13 11:00:00",
"public_id": "2F5ruPGbRtmcNK",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Ringsted",
"venue_name": "Ringsted Stadion"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4263,
"best_odd": 1.69,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0823,
"ev": -0.2343,
"implied_prob": 0.5353,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5353,
"draw": 0.2413,
"home": 0.2234
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.4531
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2751,
"best_odd": 3.75,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0152,
"ev": -0.0381,
"implied_prob": 0.2413,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5353,
"draw": 0.2413,
"home": 0.2234
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.2565
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.1587,
"best_odd": 4.05,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0218,
"ev": -0.0068,
"implied_prob": 0.2234,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5353,
"draw": 0.2413,
"home": 0.2234
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.2452
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.69,
"edge": -0.2493,
"ev": -0.4214,
"implied_prob": 0.5917,
"model_prob": 0.3424
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.75,
"edge": 0.03,
"ev": 0.1125,
"implied_prob": 0.2667,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 4.05,
"edge": 0.114,
"ev": 0.4618,
"implied_prob": 0.2469,
"model_prob": 0.3609
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1676,
"alpha_yes": 0.2304,
"best_no_odd": 2.3,
"best_yes_odd": 1.55,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0478,
"edge_yes": -0.0478,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0465,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0666,
"ev_yes": -0.1552,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1003,
"implied_no": 0.4072,
"implied_yes": 0.5928,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1676,
"best_odd": 2.24,
"edge": 0.0077,
"ev": -0.0666,
"implied_prob": 0.409,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4167
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2304,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"edge": -0.0106,
"ev": -0.1003,
"implied_prob": 0.591,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5804
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.4167,
"p_final_yes": 0.5804,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.208,
"alpha_under": 0.1513,
"best_over_odd": 1.67,
"best_under_odd": 2.3,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.56,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.23,
"edge_over": -0.102,
"edge_under": 0.102,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1951,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1166,
"ev_under": 0.1914,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0462,
"implied_over": 0.584,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5884,
"implied_under": 0.416,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4116,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.208,
"best_odd": 1.56,
"edge": -0.0221,
"ev": -0.1166,
"implied_prob": 0.5884,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5663
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1513,
"best_odd": 2.23,
"edge": 0.0161,
"ev": -0.0462,
"implied_prob": 0.4116,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4277
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5663,
"p_final_under": 0.4277,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1914,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4618,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1914,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.8
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 19.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 19.3,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Ringsted, but the model still strongly favours Ringsted."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1914,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4618,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ringsted at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 22.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ringsted as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Ringsted, but the model still strongly favours Ringsted.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ringsted",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Ringsted \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.82 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +46% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1577777 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.82 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +19.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +19.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Ringsted, but the model still strongly favours Ringsted.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +46% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 55,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Ringsted, but the model still strongly favours Ringsted.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
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}
},
"game_type": {
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"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
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"side_label": "Ringsted"
},
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},
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"secondary_pick": null,
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"teams": {
"away": "Br\u00f8nsh\u00f8j BK",
"home": "Ringsted"
},
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"ev": 0.1914,
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"market": "ou_2_5",
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"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
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"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
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},
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"value_context_1x2": {
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"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.8 percentage points",
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}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1577777,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-13T11:01:17.188702+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Ringsted & Brønshøj BK!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Giải Hạng Ba Đan Mạch — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Holbæk B&I | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16 |
| 2 | Vanløse | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 3 | Brønshøj BK | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 4 | ASA Aarhus | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | Næsby BK | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 6 | Holstebro | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | FC Helsingør | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 8 | Frem | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 9 | Hørsholm-Usserød | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 10 | Sundby | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 11 | Ringsted | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 12 | Ishøj | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Holbæk B&I | 6 | 17 | 7 | +10 | 16 |
| 2 | Næsby BK | 6 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 10 |
| 3 | Vanløse | 6 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 11 |
| 4 | Frem | 6 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 8 |
| 5 | Holstebro | 6 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 10 |
| 6 | Hørsholm-Usserød | 6 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 5 |
| 7 | ASA Aarhus | 6 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 10 |
| 8 | FC Helsingør | 6 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 10 |
| 9 | Brønshøj BK | 6 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 11 |
| 10 | Sundby | 6 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 4 |
| 11 | Ringsted | 6 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 4 |
| 12 | Ishøj | 6 | 1 | 13 | -12 | 1 |
