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Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (1 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Spartak Kostroma Spartak Kostroma ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.9
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Spartak Kostroma win · Volga Ulyanovsk 0–1 Spartak Kostroma
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "ad3f9d76cfefb0e2999bda0afbd39f0aca60b68fb2e3efa9f2dd81a0e248452b",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.32,
"away_win_prob": 0.3611,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.77,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.92,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.28,
"home_win_prob": 0.3424,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Spartak Kostroma",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Spartak Kostroma"
},
"away_xg": 1.32,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Spartak Kostroma",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0075,
"edge_gap": 0.0185,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3684,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 36.1,
"draw": 29.7,
"home": 34.2
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.6
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.6,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Spartak Kostroma Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.71,
"market_odds": 2.6,
"model_odds": 2.77,
"overround": 4.4,
"prob_edge": -2.4,
"value_pct": -6.1,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 4,
"away_failed_to_score": 2,
"away_played": 9,
"away_score_rate": 73.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 2,
"home_failed_to_score": 2,
"home_played": 9,
"home_score_rate": 72.2,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.32,
"home_expected": 1.28,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Volga Ulyanovsk or Draw",
"prob": 63.8
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Volga Ulyanovsk or Spartak Kostroma",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Spartak Kostroma",
"prob": 65.7
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Volga Ulyanovsk or Spartak Kostroma",
"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 36.1,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 34.2,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Spartak Kostroma"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.4,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.3,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": -6.1,
"implied_prob": 38.5,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Spartak Kostroma Win",
"model_prob": 36.1,
"odds": 2.6
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Spartak Kostroma",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 36.84,
"draw": 30.12,
"home": 33.03
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-18 13:59:15",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-18 13:30:04",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Volga Ulyanovsk",
"largest_move_kind": "1x2_a",
"max_abs_move_pp": 1.58,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 33.03,
"gap_pp": 1.21,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 34.24
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 30.12,
"gap_pp": -0.46,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.67
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 36.84,
"gap_pp": -0.75,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 36.09
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 44.07,
"gap_pp": 4.13,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 55.93,
"gap_pp": -4.13,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.9,
"early": 3.03,
"implied_closing_pct": 33.03,
"implied_delta_pp": 1.45,
"implied_early_pct": 31.58,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.18,
"early": 3.19,
"implied_closing_pct": 30.12,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.13,
"implied_early_pct": 29.99,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.6,
"early": 2.49,
"implied_closing_pct": 36.84,
"implied_delta_pp": -1.58,
"implied_early_pct": 38.43,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.17,
"early": 2.16,
"implied_closing_pct": 44.07,
"implied_delta_pp": -0.11,
"implied_early_pct": 44.19,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.71,
"early": 1.71,
"implied_closing_pct": 55.93,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.11,
"implied_early_pct": 55.81,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": false,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 4.1,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -5.0,
"ev": -0.2875,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 5.7,
"market_prob": 0.1754,
"market_prob_pct": 17.5,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.28,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2115,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.16,
"edge": 0.0085,
"edge_pp": 0.8,
"market_prob": 0.4419,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2115,
"best_odd": 2.16,
"edge": 0.0085,
"ev": -0.0272,
"implied_prob": 0.4419,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4503
},
"p_final": 0.4503,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0411,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0272,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2326,
"best_odd": 1.71,
"edge": -0.0093,
"ev": -0.0615,
"implied_prob": 0.5581,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5488
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0411,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 4.1,
"text": "+4.1%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1142,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -11.4,
"text": "-11.4%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0411,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10036.99,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1485,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.82,
"edge": 0.0057,
"edge_pp": 0.6,
"market_prob": 0.5068,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1485,
"best_odd": 1.87,
"edge": -0.0057,
"ev": -0.0883,
"implied_prob": 0.4932,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4875
},
"p_final": 0.5125,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.8,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0081,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0673,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1485,
"best_odd": 1.82,
"edge": 0.0057,
"ev": -0.0673,
"implied_prob": 0.5068,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5125
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1446,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -14.5,
"text": "-14.5%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0081,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.8,
"text": "-0.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.0081,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 1797.975,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"consensus_odds": 2.6,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0507,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.1,
"text": "-5.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3684,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0266,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.7,
"text": "-2.7%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.8,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0617,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-6.2%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Spartak Kostroma",
"sort_key": 1793.35,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "1/3",
"alert_breadth_note": "1/3 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +6.7%",
"alert_team": "Volga Ulyanovsk",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 1.2,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 1.21,
"hero_label": "Volga Ulyanovsk",
"market_prob_pct": 36.8,
"market_team": "Spartak Kostroma",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "Spartak Kostroma",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 25,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 1.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Spartak Kostroma)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 1.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Spartak Kostroma)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0411,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0411,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 84,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Spartak Kostroma at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Spartak Kostroma as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.8,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Spartak Kostroma",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +4.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +4.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +4.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+4.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Spartak Kostroma).",
"Decision strength: 4.1/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0507,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.6,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3684,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3846153846153846,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0617,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-6.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "1/3",
"breadth_ratio": 0.3333333333333333,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 24.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 3.3,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 80,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 1.21,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 1.21,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.32,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.28,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.28 \u00b7 Away xG 1.32 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.7,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +6.7%",
"steam_team": "Volga Ulyanovsk",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 84,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 96,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 96,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 1.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Spartak Kostroma)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 1.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Spartak Kostroma)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0411,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0411,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 84,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Spartak Kostroma at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Spartak Kostroma as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.8,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Spartak Kostroma",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +4.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +4.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +4.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+4.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Spartak Kostroma).",
"Decision strength: 4.1/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0507,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.6,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3684,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3846153846153846,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0617,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-6.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Volga Ulyanovsk 1.28 xG vs Spartak Kostroma 1.32 \u2192 Spartak Kostroma 36.1%",
"Market: Spartak Kostroma ~36.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Volga Ulyanovsk odds \u2191 +6.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Spartak Kostroma with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 1.21,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Volga Ulyanovsk",
"market_prob": 33.03,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.47,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 30.12,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.73,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Spartak Kostroma",
"market_prob": 36.84,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.02,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.18,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.02,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.82,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.82,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 50.68,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.82,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 49.32,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 1.21,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Volga Ulyanovsk",
"market_prob_pct": 33.03,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Volga Ulyanovsk"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 1.21,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Spartak Kostroma",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 36.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-0.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -0.7,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-0.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -0.7,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 80,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Spartak Kostroma \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 84,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 96,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 96,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Volga Ulyanovsk 1.28 xG vs Spartak Kostroma 1.32 \u2192 Spartak Kostroma 36.1%",
"Market: Spartak Kostroma ~36.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Volga Ulyanovsk odds \u2191 +6.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Spartak Kostroma with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 1.21,
"hero_label": "Volga Ulyanovsk",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Volga Ulyanovsk odds lengthened \u2191 +6.7%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "Confirmation remains limited (1/3 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"Confirmation remains limited (1/3 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"Recent line movement on Volga Ulyanovsk (\u2191 +6.7%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (1/3), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 1.21,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Volga Ulyanovsk",
"largest_gap_pp": 1.2,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 1.2,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 1.21,
"edge_pp": 1.21,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Volga Ulyanovsk",
"market_prob_pct": 33.03,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.47,
"edge_pp": -0.47,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 30.12,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.73,
"edge_pp": -0.73,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Spartak Kostroma",
"market_prob_pct": 36.84,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Spartak Kostroma (36.8%).",
"Volga Ulyanovsk odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +6.7%, 1/3) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Spartak Kostroma \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 34.48,
"closing_odds": 2.9,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 34.48,
"entry_odds": 2.9,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 1,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.7
}
],
"books_total": 3,
"breadth_display": "1/3",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.03,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 6.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 88h 39m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Volga Ulyanovsk (swing 3.03 \u2192 2.77 \u2192 3.03) \u2014 net 6.7% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.03",
"2.93",
"2.84"
],
"display": "3.03 \u2192 2.77 \u2192 3.03",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 88h 39m",
"pick_team": "Volga Ulyanovsk",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.03"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.77"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.03"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.84,
2.9,
3.03
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,12.3 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.84"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.84"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.03"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.03"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.84,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Volga Ulyanovsk",
"ref_book": "Pinnacle",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.03,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.7%",
"open_odds": 2.84,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Volga Ulyanovsk",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 25,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/3",
"current_odds": 3.03,
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.7%",
"open_odds": 2.84,
"pick_team": "Volga Ulyanovsk",
"steam_score": 25,
"steam_team_name": "Volga Ulyanovsk",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 1.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "spartak-kostroma",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Spartak Kostroma",
"away_team_id": 19449,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/19449.webp",
"away_team_name": "Spartak Kostroma",
"away_team_public_id": "2bQXl8YcItPRRu",
"away_team_slug": "spartak-kostroma",
"country_code": "RU",
"country_display_name": "Russia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ru.svg",
"country_id": 132,
"country_name": "Russia",
"fixture_id": 1577538,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Russia",
"home_team_display_name": "Volga Ulyanovsk",
"home_team_id": 6834,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/6834.webp",
"home_team_name": "Volga Ulyanovsk",
"home_team_public_id": "0qWrRmtpVZMTBx",
"home_team_slug": "volga-ulyanovsk",
"ht.home_team_slug": "volga-ulyanovsk",
"league_country": "Russia",
"league_country_display": "Russia",
"league_display_name": "Gi\u1ea3i H\u1ea1ng Nh\u1ea5t Nga",
"league_id": 236,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/236.webp",
"league_name": "Gi\u1ea3i H\u1ea1ng Nh\u1ea5t Nga",
"league_public_id": "5gRtf1u7YK1ltR",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-18 14:00:00",
"public_id": "1e3OpIkBACUgq5",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Ulyanovsk",
"venue_name": "Trud Stadium (Ulyanovsk)"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4449,
"best_odd": 2.6,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0033,
"ev": -0.0507,
"implied_prob": 0.3684,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3684,
"draw": 0.3012,
"home": 0.3303
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.3651
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2979,
"best_odd": 3.18,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0014,
"ev": -0.0464,
"implied_prob": 0.3012,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3684,
"draw": 0.3012,
"home": 0.3303
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.2999
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4419,
"best_odd": 2.9,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0053,
"ev": -0.0266,
"implied_prob": 0.3303,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3684,
"draw": 0.3012,
"home": 0.3303
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.3357
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.6,
"edge": -0.0237,
"ev": -0.0616,
"implied_prob": 0.3846,
"model_prob": 0.3609
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.18,
"edge": -0.0178,
"ev": -0.0566,
"implied_prob": 0.3145,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.9,
"edge": -0.0024,
"ev": -0.0071,
"implied_prob": 0.3448,
"model_prob": 0.3424
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1485,
"alpha_yes": 0.1485,
"best_no_odd": 1.88,
"best_yes_odd": 1.82,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0382,
"edge_yes": 0.0382,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1446,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0883,
"ev_yes": -0.0081,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0673,
"implied_no": 0.4932,
"implied_yes": 0.5068,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1485,
"best_odd": 1.87,
"edge": -0.0057,
"ev": -0.0883,
"implied_prob": 0.4932,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4875
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1485,
"best_odd": 1.82,
"edge": 0.0057,
"ev": -0.0673,
"implied_prob": 0.5068,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5125
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"p_final_no": 0.4875,
"p_final_yes": 0.5125,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2115,
"alpha_under": 0.2326,
"best_over_odd": 2.16,
"best_under_odd": 1.71,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.16,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.71,
"edge_over": 0.0402,
"edge_under": -0.0402,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0411,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0272,
"ev_under": -0.1142,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0615,
"implied_over": 0.4418,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4419,
"implied_under": 0.5582,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5581,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2115,
"best_odd": 2.16,
"edge": 0.0085,
"ev": -0.0272,
"implied_prob": 0.4419,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4503
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2326,
"best_odd": 1.71,
"edge": -0.0093,
"ev": -0.0615,
"implied_prob": 0.5581,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5488
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4503,
"p_final_under": 0.5488,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0411,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0411,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0411,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.1,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.1,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.1
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 1.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Spartak Kostroma)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0411,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0411,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 84,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Spartak Kostroma at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Spartak Kostroma as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.8,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Spartak Kostroma",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +4.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +4.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +4.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+4.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Spartak Kostroma).",
"Decision strength: 4.1/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0507,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.6,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3684,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3846153846153846,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0617,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-6.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0411,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4418,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "over",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.6,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0033,
"ev": -0.0507,
"implied_prob": 0.3684,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Spartak Kostroma"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1485,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.82,
"edge": 0.0057,
"market_prob": 0.5068,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1485,
"best_odd": 1.87,
"edge": -0.0057,
"ev": -0.0883,
"implied_prob": 0.4932,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4875
},
"p_final": 0.5125,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0673,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1485,
"best_odd": 1.82,
"edge": 0.0057,
"ev": -0.0673,
"implied_prob": 0.5068,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5125
}
},
"edge": 0.0382,
"ev": -0.0081,
"implied_prob": 0.5068,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2115,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.16,
"edge": 0.0085,
"market_prob": 0.4419,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2115,
"best_odd": 2.16,
"edge": 0.0085,
"ev": -0.0272,
"implied_prob": 0.4419,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4503
},
"p_final": 0.4503,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0272,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2326,
"best_odd": 1.71,
"edge": -0.0093,
"ev": -0.0615,
"implied_prob": 0.5581,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5488
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0402,
"ev": 0.0411,
"implied_prob": 0.4418,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1577538,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0411,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3609,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3424
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Spartak Kostroma",
"home": "Volga Ulyanovsk"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0507,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.6,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3684,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3846153846153846,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0617,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-6.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1577538,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-18T13:59:17.097726+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Volga Ulyanovsk & Spartak Kostroma!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Giải Hạng Nhất Nga — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nizhny Novgorod | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 31 |
| 2 | Spartak Kostroma | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 24 |
| 3 | FC Sochi | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 23 |
| 4 | Veles | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 23 |
| 5 | Ural | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 22 |
| 6 | Torpedo Moskva | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 20 |
| 7 | Rotor Volgograd | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 17 |
| 8 | FC UFA | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 17 |
| 9 | Shinnik Yaroslavl | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 15 |
| 10 | Enisey | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 13 |
| 11 | Arsenal Tula | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 13 |
| 12 | FK Neftekhimik | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 12 |
| 13 | Volga Ulyanovsk | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 11 |
| 14 | Chelyabinsk | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 11 |
| 15 | Leningradets | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 10 |
| 16 | KAMAZ | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 |
| 17 | Tekstilshchik | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 7 |
| 18 | Ska-khabarovsk | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 5 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nizhny Novgorod | 12 | 36 | 14 | +22 | 31 |
| 2 | Torpedo Moskva | 11 | 21 | 9 | +12 | 20 |
| 3 | FC Sochi | 12 | 21 | 14 | +7 | 23 |
| 4 | Rotor Volgograd | 12 | 20 | 14 | +6 | 17 |
| 5 | Ural | 11 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 22 |
| 6 | FC UFA | 11 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 17 |
| 7 | Veles | 12 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 23 |
| 8 | Spartak Kostroma | 11 | 15 | 8 | +7 | 24 |
| 9 | Shinnik Yaroslavl | 11 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 15 |
| 10 | Volga Ulyanovsk | 11 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 11 |
| 11 | Enisey | 11 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 13 |
| 12 | Chelyabinsk | 11 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 11 |
| 13 | Arsenal Tula | 12 | 12 | 22 | -10 | 13 |
| 14 | KAMAZ | 12 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 9 |
| 15 | Ska-khabarovsk | 11 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 5 |
| 16 | Leningradets | 11 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 10 |
| 17 | Tekstilshchik | 12 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 7 |
| 18 | FK Neftekhimik | 12 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 12 |
