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Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Chelyabinsk Chelyabinsk ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.22
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Chelyabinsk win · Chelyabinsk 2–1 FC UFA
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.23,
"away_win_prob": 0.3194,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.456,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2957,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.13,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.6,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.37,
"home_win_prob": 0.3849,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or FC UFA",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "FC UFA"
},
"away_xg": 1.23,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Chelyabinsk",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0467,
"edge_gap": 0.0651,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4314,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 32.0,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 38.5
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.22
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.22,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Chelyabinsk Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.32,
"market_odds": 2.22,
"model_odds": 2.6,
"overround": 4.4,
"prob_edge": -6.6,
"value_pct": -14.6,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 3,
"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 9,
"away_score_rate": 70.8,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 3,
"home_played": 9,
"home_score_rate": 74.6,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.23,
"home_expected": 1.37,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.7
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Chelyabinsk or Draw",
"prob": 68.1
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Chelyabinsk or FC UFA",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or FC UFA",
"prob": 61.5
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Chelyabinsk or FC UFA",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 31.9,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 38.5,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Chelyabinsk"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.4,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 10.1,
"implied_prob": 29.0,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "FC UFA Win",
"model_prob": 31.9,
"odds": 3.45
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "FC UFA",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 27.76,
"draw": 29.11,
"home": 43.14
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-18 14:00:25",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-18 13:31:13",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Chelyabinsk",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 43.14,
"gap_pp": -4.67,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 38.46
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 29.11,
"gap_pp": 0.48,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.59
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 27.76,
"gap_pp": 4.19,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 31.95
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 42.2,
"gap_pp": 6.0,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 57.8,
"gap_pp": -6.0,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.22,
"early": 2.22,
"implied_closing_pct": 43.14,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 43.14,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.29,
"early": 3.29,
"implied_closing_pct": 29.11,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.45,
"early": 3.45,
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"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.26,
"early": 2.26,
"implied_closing_pct": 42.2,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 42.2,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.65,
"early": 1.65,
"implied_closing_pct": 57.8,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 57.8,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 6.0,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -4.7,
"ev": -0.275,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 5.8,
"market_prob": 0.1724,
"market_prob_pct": 17.2,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.7
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.37,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1645,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0094,
"edge_pp": 0.9,
"market_prob": 0.4246,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1645,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0094,
"ev": -0.0235,
"implied_prob": 0.4246,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.434
},
"p_final": 0.434,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0845,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0235,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2262,
"best_odd": 1.66,
"edge": -0.013,
"ev": -0.0663,
"implied_prob": 0.5754,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5625
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0845,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 8.5,
"text": "+8.5%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1401,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -14.0,
"text": "-14.0%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0845,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10226.05,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1426,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.92,
"edge": 0.009,
"edge_pp": 0.9,
"market_prob": 0.4811,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1569,
"best_odd": 1.78,
"edge": -0.0099,
"ev": -0.0939,
"implied_prob": 0.5189,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.509
},
"p_final": 0.4901,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0445,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0591,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1426,
"best_odd": 1.92,
"edge": 0.009,
"ev": -0.0591,
"implied_prob": 0.4811,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4901
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1838,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -18.4,
"text": "-18.4%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.0445,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 4.5,
"text": "+4.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0445,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"sort_key": 10040.05,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.22,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0858,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -8.6,
"text": "-8.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4314,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0017,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.2,
"text": "-0.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.7,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1462,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.6%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Chelyabinsk",
"sort_key": 2199.864,
"tier": "pass"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "3/4",
"alert_breadth_note": "3/4 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +27.9%",
"alert_team": "FC UFA",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 4.7,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -4.65,
"hero_label": "Chelyabinsk",
"market_prob_pct": 43.1,
"market_team": "Chelyabinsk",
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"model_team": "Chelyabinsk",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 62,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Chelyabinsk)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Chelyabinsk)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0845,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1023,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.4,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Chelyabinsk at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Chelyabinsk as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Chelyabinsk",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Chelyabinsk).",
"Decision strength: 6.4/10"
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0858,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.22,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4314,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4504504504504504,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1462,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "3/4",
"breadth_ratio": 0.75,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.5,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 87,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 4.65,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 4.65,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.23,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.37,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.37,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.37 \u00b7 Away xG 1.23 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 27.9,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +27.9%",
"steam_team": "FC UFA",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 76,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 76,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Chelyabinsk).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Chelyabinsk)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Chelyabinsk)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0845,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1023,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.4,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Chelyabinsk at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Chelyabinsk as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Chelyabinsk",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Chelyabinsk).",
"Decision strength: 6.4/10"
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0858,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.22,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4314,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4504504504504504,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1462,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Chelyabinsk 1.37 xG vs FC UFA 1.23 \u2192 Chelyabinsk 38.5%",
"Market: Chelyabinsk ~43.1% implied",
"Market Drift: FC UFA odds \u2191 +27.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Chelyabinsk with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -4.65,
"fair_prob": 38.49,
"label": "Chelyabinsk",
"market_prob": 43.14,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.46,
"fair_prob": 29.57,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 29.11,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.18,
"fair_prob": 31.94,
"label": "FC UFA",
"market_prob": 27.76,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.72,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.48,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.72,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.52,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.29,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 48.11,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.29,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 51.89,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -4.65,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.49,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Chelyabinsk",
"market_prob_pct": 43.14,
"status": "market_efficient",
"steam_team_name": "FC UFA"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "market_efficient",
"max_gap_pp": 4.65,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Chelyabinsk",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 43.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-4.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -4.6,
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-4.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -4.6,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 87,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Chelyabinsk \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 76,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 76,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Chelyabinsk 1.37 xG vs FC UFA 1.23 \u2192 Chelyabinsk 38.5%",
"Market: Chelyabinsk ~43.1% implied",
"Market Drift: FC UFA odds \u2191 +27.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Chelyabinsk with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -4.65,
"hero_label": "Chelyabinsk",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "FC UFA odds lengthened \u2191 +27.9%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, FC UFA has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 27.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from FC UFA \u2014 odds lengthened by 27.9% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, FC UFA has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 27.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from FC UFA \u2014 odds lengthened by 27.9% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, FC UFA has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 27.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (3/4) supports the current market view on FC UFA."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 4.65,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 6.6 pp (at 38.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 6.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Chelyabinsk",
"largest_gap_pp": -4.7,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.7,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -4.65,
"edge_pp": -4.65,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.49,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Chelyabinsk",
"market_prob_pct": 43.14,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.46,
"edge_pp": 0.46,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.57,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 29.11,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.18,
"edge_pp": 4.18,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.94,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "FC UFA",
"market_prob_pct": 27.76,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_efficient",
"status_label": "Market Efficient",
"steam_note": "Drift away from FC UFA \u2014 odds lengthened by 27.9% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Chelyabinsk (43.1%).",
"However, FC UFA has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +27.9%, 3/4) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"Chelyabinsk \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 45.05,
"closing_odds": 2.22,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 45.05,
"entry_odds": 2.22,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 3,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +27.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 27.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +25.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 25.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +25.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 25.5
}
],
"books_total": 4,
"breadth_display": "3/4",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.67,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +27.9%",
"move_pct_abs": 27.9,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 88h 39m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"3/4 books lengthened FC UFA together (27.9% drift, score 62) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 27.9,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.67",
"3.27",
"2.87"
],
"display": "3.67 \u2192 2.82 \u2192 3.67",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 88h 39m",
"pick_team": "FC UFA",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.67"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.82"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.67"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.87,
3.45,
3.67
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,4.9 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.87"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.87"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.67"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.67"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.87,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: FC UFA odds \u2191 +27.9% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "FC UFA",
"ref_book": "Pinnacle",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: FC UFA odds \u2191 +27.9% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.67,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +27.9%",
"open_odds": 2.87,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "FC UFA",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 62,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/4",
"current_odds": 3.67,
"move_display": "\u2191 +27.9%",
"open_odds": 2.87,
"pick_team": "FC UFA",
"steam_score": 62,
"steam_team_name": "FC UFA",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 4.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "fc-ufa",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "FC UFA",
"away_team_id": 1078,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1078.webp",
"away_team_name": "FC UFA",
"away_team_public_id": "0CCnSslSr6zLCQ",
"away_team_slug": "fc-ufa",
"country_code": "RU",
"country_display_name": "Russia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ru.svg",
"country_id": 132,
"country_name": "Russia",
"fixture_id": 1577531,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Russia",
"home_team_display_name": "Chelyabinsk",
"home_team_id": 6790,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/6790.webp",
"home_team_name": "Chelyabinsk",
"home_team_public_id": "3QzqWXI3ESkbzc",
"home_team_slug": "chelyabinsk",
"ht.home_team_slug": "chelyabinsk",
"league_country": "Russia",
"league_country_display": "Russia",
"league_display_name": "Gi\u1ea3i H\u1ea1ng Nh\u1ea5t Nga",
"league_id": 236,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/236.webp",
"league_name": "Gi\u1ea3i H\u1ea1ng Nh\u1ea5t Nga",
"league_public_id": "5gRtf1u7YK1ltR",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-18 14:00:00",
"public_id": "541O3GliFEi78H",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Chelyabinsk",
"venue_name": "Central Stadium (Chelyabinsk)"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2811,
"best_odd": 3.45,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0118,
"ev": -0.0017,
"implied_prob": 0.2776,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2776,
"draw": 0.2911,
"home": 0.4314
},
"model_prob": 0.3195,
"p_final": 0.2894
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2978,
"best_odd": 3.29,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0014,
"ev": -0.0377,
"implied_prob": 0.2911,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2776,
"draw": 0.2911,
"home": 0.4314
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.2925
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4185,
"best_odd": 2.22,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0196,
"ev": -0.0858,
"implied_prob": 0.4314,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2776,
"draw": 0.2911,
"home": 0.4314
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"p_final": 0.4118
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.45,
"edge": 0.0296,
"ev": 0.1023,
"implied_prob": 0.2899,
"model_prob": 0.3195
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.29,
"edge": -0.0081,
"ev": -0.0266,
"implied_prob": 0.304,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.22,
"edge": -0.0658,
"ev": -0.1461,
"implied_prob": 0.4505,
"model_prob": 0.3846
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1569,
"alpha_yes": 0.1426,
"best_no_odd": 1.79,
"best_yes_odd": 1.92,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0629,
"edge_yes": 0.0629,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1838,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0939,
"ev_yes": 0.0445,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0591,
"implied_no": 0.5189,
"implied_yes": 0.4811,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1569,
"best_odd": 1.78,
"edge": -0.0099,
"ev": -0.0939,
"implied_prob": 0.5189,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.509
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1426,
"best_odd": 1.92,
"edge": 0.009,
"ev": -0.0591,
"implied_prob": 0.4811,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4901
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"p_final_no": 0.509,
"p_final_yes": 0.4901,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1645,
"alpha_under": 0.2262,
"best_over_odd": 2.25,
"best_under_odd": 1.66,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.25,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.66,
"edge_over": 0.0572,
"edge_under": -0.0572,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0845,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0235,
"ev_under": -0.1401,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0663,
"implied_over": 0.4248,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4246,
"implied_under": 0.5752,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5754,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1645,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0094,
"ev": -0.0235,
"implied_prob": 0.4246,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.434
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2262,
"best_odd": 1.66,
"edge": -0.013,
"ev": -0.0663,
"implied_prob": 0.5754,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5625
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.434,
"p_final_under": 0.5625,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0845,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1023,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0845,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.4,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.4,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.4,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.4
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Chelyabinsk)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0845,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1023,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.4,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Chelyabinsk at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Chelyabinsk as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Chelyabinsk",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Chelyabinsk).",
"Decision strength: 6.4/10"
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0858,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.22,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4314,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4504504504504504,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1462,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3846,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.14
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.22,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0196,
"ev": -0.0858,
"implied_prob": 0.4314,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Chelyabinsk"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1426,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.92,
"edge": 0.009,
"market_prob": 0.4811,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1569,
"best_odd": 1.78,
"edge": -0.0099,
"ev": -0.0939,
"implied_prob": 0.5189,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.509
},
"p_final": 0.4901,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0591,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1426,
"best_odd": 1.92,
"edge": 0.009,
"ev": -0.0591,
"implied_prob": 0.4811,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4901
}
},
"edge": 0.0629,
"ev": 0.0445,
"implied_prob": 0.4811,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1645,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0094,
"market_prob": 0.4246,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1645,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0094,
"ev": -0.0235,
"implied_prob": 0.4246,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.434
},
"p_final": 0.434,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0235,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2262,
"best_odd": 1.66,
"edge": -0.013,
"ev": -0.0663,
"implied_prob": 0.5754,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5625
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0572,
"ev": 0.0845,
"implied_prob": 0.4248,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1577531,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0845,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3195,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3846
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "FC UFA",
"home": "Chelyabinsk"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.02851,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0845,
"implied_prob": 0.4248,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0858,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.22,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4314,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4504504504504504,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1462,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1577531,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-18T14:00:27.242707+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Chelyabinsk & FC UFA!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Giải Hạng Nhất Nga — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nizhny Novgorod | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 31 |
| 2 | Spartak Kostroma | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 24 |
| 3 | FC Sochi | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 23 |
| 4 | Veles | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 23 |
| 5 | Ural | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 22 |
| 6 | Torpedo Moskva | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 20 |
| 7 | Rotor Volgograd | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 17 |
| 8 | FC UFA | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 17 |
| 9 | Shinnik Yaroslavl | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 15 |
| 10 | Enisey | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 13 |
| 11 | Arsenal Tula | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 13 |
| 12 | FK Neftekhimik | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 12 |
| 13 | Volga Ulyanovsk | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 11 |
| 14 | Chelyabinsk | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 11 |
| 15 | Leningradets | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 10 |
| 16 | KAMAZ | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 |
| 17 | Tekstilshchik | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 7 |
| 18 | Ska-khabarovsk | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 5 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nizhny Novgorod | 12 | 36 | 14 | +22 | 31 |
| 2 | Torpedo Moskva | 11 | 21 | 9 | +12 | 20 |
| 3 | FC Sochi | 12 | 21 | 14 | +7 | 23 |
| 4 | Rotor Volgograd | 12 | 20 | 14 | +6 | 17 |
| 5 | Ural | 11 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 22 |
| 6 | FC UFA | 11 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 17 |
| 7 | Veles | 12 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 23 |
| 8 | Spartak Kostroma | 11 | 15 | 8 | +7 | 24 |
| 9 | Shinnik Yaroslavl | 11 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 15 |
| 10 | Volga Ulyanovsk | 11 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 11 |
| 11 | Enisey | 11 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 13 |
| 12 | Chelyabinsk | 11 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 11 |
| 13 | Arsenal Tula | 12 | 12 | 22 | -10 | 13 |
| 14 | KAMAZ | 12 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 9 |
| 15 | Ska-khabarovsk | 11 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 5 |
| 16 | Leningradets | 11 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 10 |
| 17 | Tekstilshchik | 12 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 7 |
| 18 | FK Neftekhimik | 12 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 12 |
