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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (2 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 KAMAZ Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.94
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · KAMAZ 1–1 Chelyabinsk
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "7b0a6426d018ea42a140e79a3f44f8bddc190f5529cf1225a34bc8af0ddebba8",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.24,
"away_win_prob": 0.3239,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.456,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.09,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.63,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.36,
"home_win_prob": 0.3801,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : KAMAZ or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "KAMAZ"
},
"away_xg": 1.24,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "KAMAZ",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.1118,
"edge_gap": 0.0566,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4921,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 32.4,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 38.0
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.94
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.94,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "KAMAZ Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.03,
"market_odds": 1.94,
"model_odds": 2.63,
"overround": 4.7,
"prob_edge": -13.5,
"value_pct": -26.2,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 1,
"away_failed_to_score": 3,
"away_played": 9,
"away_score_rate": 71.1,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 3,
"home_played": 10,
"home_score_rate": 74.3,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.24,
"home_expected": 1.36,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.8
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "KAMAZ or Draw",
"prob": 67.6
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "KAMAZ or Chelyabinsk",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Chelyabinsk",
"prob": 62.0
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "KAMAZ or Chelyabinsk",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 32.4,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 38.0,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "KAMAZ"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.9,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 33.8,
"implied_prob": 24.2,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Chelyabinsk Win",
"model_prob": 32.4,
"odds": 4.13
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Chelyabinsk",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 23.12,
"draw": 27.67,
"home": 49.21
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-14 14:59:01",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-14 14:29:03",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "KAMAZ",
"largest_move_kind": "1x2_h",
"max_abs_move_pp": 2.13,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 49.21,
"gap_pp": -11.18,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 38.03
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 27.67,
"gap_pp": 1.92,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.59
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 23.12,
"gap_pp": 9.26,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 32.37
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 41.73,
"gap_pp": 6.47,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 58.27,
"gap_pp": -6.47,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.94,
"early": 2.03,
"implied_closing_pct": 49.21,
"implied_delta_pp": 2.13,
"implied_early_pct": 47.08,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.45,
"early": 3.35,
"implied_closing_pct": 27.67,
"implied_delta_pp": -0.86,
"implied_early_pct": 28.53,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 4.13,
"early": 3.92,
"implied_closing_pct": 23.12,
"implied_delta_pp": -1.27,
"implied_early_pct": 24.38,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.29,
"early": 2.32,
"implied_closing_pct": 41.73,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.61,
"implied_early_pct": 41.12,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.64,
"early": 1.62,
"implied_closing_pct": 58.27,
"implied_delta_pp": -0.61,
"implied_early_pct": 58.88,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": false,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 9.3,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -4.9,
"ev": -0.2812,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 5.75,
"market_prob": 0.1739,
"market_prob_pct": 17.4,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.1
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.8
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.36,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1612,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.31,
"edge": 0.0112,
"edge_pp": 1.1,
"market_prob": 0.4122,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1612,
"best_odd": 2.31,
"edge": 0.0112,
"ev": -0.0218,
"implied_prob": 0.4122,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4235
},
"p_final": 0.4235,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1134,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0218,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2216,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0155,
"ev": -0.0728,
"implied_prob": 0.5878,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5723
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1182,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 11.8,
"text": "+11.8%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1557,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.6,
"text": "-15.6%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1182,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10256.38,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1395,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.975,
"edge": 0.0106,
"edge_pp": 1.1,
"market_prob": 0.4677,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1534,
"best_odd": 1.735,
"edge": -0.0117,
"ev": -0.0967,
"implied_prob": 0.5323,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5206
},
"p_final": 0.4783,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0744,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0554,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1395,
"best_odd": 1.975,
"edge": 0.0106,
"ev": -0.0554,
"implied_prob": 0.4677,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4783
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.202,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -20.2,
"text": "-20.2%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.0771,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 7.7,
"text": "+7.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0771,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"sort_key": 10069.39,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 1.94,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1536,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.4,
"text": "-15.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4921,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0205,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.1,
"text": "+2.1%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.2,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2622,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-26.2%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "KAMAZ",
"sort_key": 5216.4,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "3/4",
"alert_breadth_note": "3/4 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +14.6%",
"alert_team": "Chelyabinsk",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 11.2,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -11.2,
"hero_label": "KAMAZ",
"market_prob_pct": 49.2,
"market_team": "KAMAZ",
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"model_team": "KAMAZ",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 52,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (KAMAZ)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (KAMAZ)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1182,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.337,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 54,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates KAMAZ at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 49.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies KAMAZ as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "KAMAZ",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side KAMAZ \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.77 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +34% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1577523 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.77 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +11.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "68 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "54 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (KAMAZ).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +34% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 68,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1536,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.94,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4921,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5154639175257733,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2622,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-26.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "3/4",
"breadth_ratio": 0.75,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (11 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.5,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 68,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 11.2,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 11.2,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.24,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.36,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.36,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.36 \u00b7 Away xG 1.24 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.6,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +14.6%",
"steam_team": "Chelyabinsk",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 54,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (KAMAZ)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (KAMAZ)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1182,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.337,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 54,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates KAMAZ at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 49.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies KAMAZ as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "KAMAZ",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side KAMAZ \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.77 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +34% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1577523 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.77 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +11.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "68 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "54 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (KAMAZ).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +34% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 68,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1536,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.94,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4921,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5154639175257733,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2622,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-26.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: KAMAZ 1.36 xG vs Chelyabinsk 1.24 \u2192 KAMAZ 38.0%",
"Market: KAMAZ ~49.2% implied",
"Market Drift: Chelyabinsk odds \u2191 +14.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean KAMAZ with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -11.2,
"fair_prob": 38.01,
"label": "KAMAZ",
"market_prob": 49.21,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.92,
"fair_prob": 29.59,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 27.67,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.27,
"fair_prob": 32.39,
"label": "Chelyabinsk",
"market_prob": 23.12,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.92,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 41.28,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.92,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 58.72,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.63,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 46.77,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.63,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 53.23,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -11.2,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "KAMAZ",
"market_prob_pct": 49.21,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Chelyabinsk"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates KAMAZ\u0027s win probability at 49.2%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 38.0%, a difference of 11.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 11.2,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "KAMAZ",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 49.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-11.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -11.2,
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-11.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -11.2,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 68,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "KAMAZ \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 54,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: KAMAZ 1.36 xG vs Chelyabinsk 1.24 \u2192 KAMAZ 38.0%",
"Market: KAMAZ ~49.2% implied",
"Market Drift: Chelyabinsk odds \u2191 +14.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean KAMAZ with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -11.2,
"hero_label": "KAMAZ",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Chelyabinsk odds lengthened \u2191 +14.6%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, Chelyabinsk has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 14.6%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about KAMAZ than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from Chelyabinsk \u2014 odds lengthened by 14.6% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about KAMAZ than the current fair estimate.",
"However, Chelyabinsk has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 14.6%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Chelyabinsk \u2014 odds lengthened by 14.6% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors KAMAZ more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Chelyabinsk has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 14.6%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (3/4) supports the current market view on Chelyabinsk."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 11.2,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 5.6 pp (at 38.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 5.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "KAMAZ",
"largest_gap_pp": -11.2,
"lead": "The closing market prices KAMAZ higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 11.2,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -11.2,
"edge_pp": -11.2,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "KAMAZ",
"market_prob_pct": 49.21,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.92,
"edge_pp": 1.92,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 27.67,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 9.27,
"edge_pp": 9.27,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.39,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Chelyabinsk",
"market_prob_pct": 23.12,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Chelyabinsk \u2014 odds lengthened by 14.6% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers KAMAZ (49.2%).",
"However, Chelyabinsk has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +14.6%, 3/4) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"KAMAZ \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 51.55,
"closing_odds": 1.94,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 51.55,
"entry_odds": 1.94,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 3,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.7
}
],
"books_total": 4,
"breadth_display": "3/4",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.92,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +14.6%",
"move_pct_abs": 14.6,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 56h 21m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Chelyabinsk (14.6%, 3/4) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.6,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.13",
"3.77",
"3.42"
],
"display": "3.92 \u2192 2.95 \u2192 3.92",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 56h 21m",
"pick_team": "Chelyabinsk",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.92"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.95"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.92"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.42,
4.13,
3.92
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,5.3",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.42"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.42"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.13"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.92"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.42,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Chelyabinsk",
"ref_book": "Pinnacle",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.92,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +14.6%",
"open_odds": 3.42,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Chelyabinsk",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 52,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/4",
"current_odds": 3.92,
"move_display": "\u2191 +14.6%",
"open_odds": 3.42,
"pick_team": "Chelyabinsk",
"steam_score": 52,
"steam_team_name": "Chelyabinsk",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 11.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "chelyabinsk",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Chelyabinsk",
"away_team_id": 6790,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/6790.webp",
"away_team_name": "Chelyabinsk",
"away_team_public_id": "3QzqWXI3ESkbzc",
"away_team_slug": "chelyabinsk",
"country_code": "RU",
"country_display_name": "Russia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ru.svg",
"country_id": 132,
"country_name": "Russia",
"fixture_id": 1577523,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Russia",
"home_team_display_name": "KAMAZ",
"home_team_id": 6801,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/6801.webp",
"home_team_name": "KAMAZ",
"home_team_public_id": "3Fr4GrTnVtqnvI",
"home_team_slug": "kamaz",
"ht.home_team_slug": "kamaz",
"league_country": "Russia",
"league_country_display": "Russia",
"league_display_name": "Gi\u1ea3i H\u1ea1ng Nh\u1ea5t Nga",
"league_id": 236,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/236.webp",
"league_name": "Gi\u1ea3i H\u1ea1ng Nh\u1ea5t Nga",
"league_public_id": "5gRtf1u7YK1ltR",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-14 15:00:00",
"public_id": "38ZnVBRrHdlCDg",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Naberezhnye Chelny",
"venue_name": "KAMAZ Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1722,
"best_odd": 4.13,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0159,
"ev": 0.0205,
"implied_prob": 0.2312,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2312,
"draw": 0.2767,
"home": 0.4921
},
"model_prob": 0.3237,
"p_final": 0.2471
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2914,
"best_odd": 3.45,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0056,
"ev": -0.026,
"implied_prob": 0.2767,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2312,
"draw": 0.2767,
"home": 0.4921
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.2823
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4994,
"best_odd": 1.94,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0558,
"ev": -0.1536,
"implied_prob": 0.4921,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2312,
"draw": 0.2767,
"home": 0.4921
},
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"p_final": 0.4363
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.13,
"edge": 0.0816,
"ev": 0.337,
"implied_prob": 0.2421,
"model_prob": 0.3237
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.45,
"edge": 0.0061,
"ev": 0.021,
"implied_prob": 0.2899,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.94,
"edge": -0.1351,
"ev": -0.2621,
"implied_prob": 0.5155,
"model_prob": 0.3803
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1534,
"alpha_yes": 0.1395,
"best_no_odd": 1.75,
"best_yes_odd": 1.98,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0763,
"edge_yes": 0.0763,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.202,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0967,
"ev_yes": 0.0771,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0554,
"implied_no": 0.5323,
"implied_yes": 0.4677,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1534,
"best_odd": 1.735,
"edge": -0.0117,
"ev": -0.0967,
"implied_prob": 0.5323,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5206
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1395,
"best_odd": 1.975,
"edge": 0.0106,
"ev": -0.0554,
"implied_prob": 0.4677,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4783
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"p_final_no": 0.5206,
"p_final_yes": 0.4783,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1612,
"alpha_under": 0.2216,
"best_over_odd": 2.32,
"best_under_odd": 1.63,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.31,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.62,
"edge_over": 0.0692,
"edge_under": -0.0692,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1182,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0218,
"ev_under": -0.1557,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0728,
"implied_over": 0.4128,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4122,
"implied_under": 0.5872,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5878,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1612,
"best_odd": 2.31,
"edge": 0.0112,
"ev": -0.0218,
"implied_prob": 0.4122,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4235
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2216,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0155,
"ev": -0.0728,
"implied_prob": 0.5878,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5723
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4235,
"p_final_under": 0.5723,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1182,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.337,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1182,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.9
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (KAMAZ)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1182,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.337,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 54,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates KAMAZ at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 49.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies KAMAZ as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "KAMAZ",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side KAMAZ \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.77 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +34% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1577523 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.77 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +11.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "68 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "54 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (KAMAZ).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +34% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 68,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1536,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.94,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4921,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5154639175257733,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2622,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-26.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3803,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.12
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev": 0.0205,
"implied_prob": 0.2312,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.3237,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "longshot",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Chelyabinsk",
"slot": "longshot"
}
],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.94,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0558,
"ev": -0.1536,
"implied_prob": 0.4921,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "KAMAZ"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1395,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.975,
"edge": 0.0106,
"market_prob": 0.4677,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1534,
"best_odd": 1.735,
"edge": -0.0117,
"ev": -0.0967,
"implied_prob": 0.5323,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5206
},
"p_final": 0.4783,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0554,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1395,
"best_odd": 1.975,
"edge": 0.0106,
"ev": -0.0554,
"implied_prob": 0.4677,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4783
}
},
"edge": 0.0763,
"ev": 0.0771,
"implied_prob": 0.4677,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1612,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.31,
"edge": 0.0112,
"market_prob": 0.4122,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1612,
"best_odd": 2.31,
"edge": 0.0112,
"ev": -0.0218,
"implied_prob": 0.4122,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4235
},
"p_final": 0.4235,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0218,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2216,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0155,
"ev": -0.0728,
"implied_prob": 0.5878,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5723
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0692,
"ev": 0.1182,
"implied_prob": 0.4128,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1577523,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1182,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3237,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3803
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"longshot_high_variance"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0771,
"implied_prob": 0.4677,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0771,
"implied_prob": 0.4677,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Chelyabinsk",
"home": "KAMAZ"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.039881,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1182,
"implied_prob": 0.4128,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1536,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.94,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4921,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5154639175257733,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2622,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-26.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1577523,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-14T14:59:06.221623+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho KAMAZ & Chelyabinsk!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Giải Hạng Nhất Nga — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nizhny Novgorod | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 31 |
| 2 | Spartak Kostroma | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 24 |
| 3 | FC Sochi | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 23 |
| 4 | Veles | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 23 |
| 5 | Ural | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 22 |
| 6 | Torpedo Moskva | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 20 |
| 7 | Rotor Volgograd | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 17 |
| 8 | FC UFA | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 17 |
| 9 | Shinnik Yaroslavl | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 15 |
| 10 | Enisey | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 13 |
| 11 | Arsenal Tula | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 13 |
| 12 | FK Neftekhimik | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 12 |
| 13 | Volga Ulyanovsk | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 11 |
| 14 | Chelyabinsk | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 11 |
| 15 | Leningradets | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 10 |
| 16 | KAMAZ | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 |
| 17 | Tekstilshchik | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 7 |
| 18 | Ska-khabarovsk | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 5 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nizhny Novgorod | 12 | 36 | 14 | +22 | 31 |
| 2 | Torpedo Moskva | 11 | 21 | 9 | +12 | 20 |
| 3 | FC Sochi | 12 | 21 | 14 | +7 | 23 |
| 4 | Rotor Volgograd | 12 | 20 | 14 | +6 | 17 |
| 5 | Ural | 11 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 22 |
| 6 | FC UFA | 11 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 17 |
| 7 | Veles | 12 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 23 |
| 8 | Spartak Kostroma | 11 | 15 | 8 | +7 | 24 |
| 9 | Shinnik Yaroslavl | 11 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 15 |
| 10 | Volga Ulyanovsk | 11 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 11 |
| 11 | Enisey | 11 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 13 |
| 12 | Chelyabinsk | 11 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 11 |
| 13 | Arsenal Tula | 12 | 12 | 22 | -10 | 13 |
| 14 | KAMAZ | 12 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 9 |
| 15 | Ska-khabarovsk | 11 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 5 |
| 16 | Leningradets | 11 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 10 |
| 17 | Tekstilshchik | 12 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 7 |
| 18 | FK Neftekhimik | 12 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 12 |
