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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Fremad Amager Fremad Amager ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Fremad Amager win · FA 2000 1–2 Fremad Amager
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
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"facts": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.3564,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
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"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.81,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
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"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Fremad Amager",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Fremad Amager"
},
"away_xg": 1.31,
"betting_insight": {
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"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
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"edge": -0.064,
"edge_gap": 0.0087,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4199,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 29.7,
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},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
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"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.18
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
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"label": "Away",
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"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 8,
"away_score_rate": 73.0,
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"home_played": 8,
"home_score_rate": 72.5,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
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"yes_prob": 54.5
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"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.31,
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"away": 1,
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"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
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{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.7
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{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
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{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.2
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{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
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"prob": 8.1
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],
"source": "xG"
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"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "FA 2000 or Draw",
"prob": 64.3
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "FA 2000 or Fremad Amager",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Fremad Amager",
"prob": 65.2
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "FA 2000 or Fremad Amager",
"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 35.6,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 34.7,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Fremad Amager"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.4,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.1,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
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"edge": 3.3,
"implied_prob": 28.7,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.6,
"odds": 3.49
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Fremad Amager",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 41.99,
"draw": 26.23,
"home": 31.78
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 11:58:07",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 11:33:14",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "FA 2000",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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{
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"gap_pp": 2.94,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 34.73
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.23,
"gap_pp": 3.45,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.68
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 41.99,
"gap_pp": -6.4,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 35.59
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 54.5,
"gap_pp": -6.3,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 45.5,
"gap_pp": 6.3,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.88,
"early": 2.88,
"implied_closing_pct": 31.78,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 31.78,
"kind": "1x2_h"
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{
"closing": 3.49,
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},
{
"closing": 2.18,
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"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.72,
"early": 1.72,
"implied_closing_pct": 54.5,
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{
"closing": 2.06,
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"implied_closing_pct": 45.5,
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"implied_early_pct": 45.5,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 6.3,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.7,
"ev": -0.118,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.0,
"market_prob": 0.1429,
"market_prob_pct": 14.3,
"model_prob": 0.126,
"model_prob_pct": 12.6,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.1
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.29,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2057,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.99,
"edge": 0.0118,
"edge_pp": 1.2,
"market_prob": 0.4607,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2262,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": -0.013,
"ev": -0.1052,
"implied_prob": 0.5393,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5263
},
"p_final": 0.4725,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0308,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0597,
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"best_odd": 1.99,
"edge": 0.0118,
"ev": -0.0597,
"implied_prob": 0.4607,
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"p_final": 0.4725
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1565,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.7,
"text": "-15.7%"
},
"ev_under": 0.0671,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 6.7,
"text": "+6.7%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0671,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10210.39,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2136,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.17,
"edge": 0.0072,
"edge_pp": 0.7,
"market_prob": 0.4213,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2136,
"best_odd": 2.17,
"edge": 0.0072,
"ev": -0.0701,
"implied_prob": 0.4213,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4285
},
"p_final": 0.4285,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0127,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0701,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.235,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": -0.0079,
"ev": -0.0982,
"implied_prob": 0.5787,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5708
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0237,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.4,
"text": "+2.4%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1171,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -11.7,
"text": "-11.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0237,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 5218.96,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward FA 2000, but the model still strongly favours Fremad Amager.",
"consensus_odds": 2.18,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1414,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -14.1,
"text": "-14.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4199,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0482,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.8,
"text": "-4.8%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2241,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.4%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Fremad Amager",
"sort_key": 1787.95,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -17.7%",
"alert_team": "FA 2000",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 6.4,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.35,
"hero_label": "Fremad Amager",
"market_prob_pct": 42.0,
"market_team": "Fremad Amager",
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"model_team": "Fremad Amager",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 76,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward FA 2000, but the model still strongly favours Fremad Amager."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward FA 2000, but the model still strongly favours Fremad Amager."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0671,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0671,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Fremad Amager at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Fremad Amager as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward FA 2000, but the model still strongly favours Fremad Amager.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Fremad Amager",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "75 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward FA 2000, but the model still strongly favours Fremad Amager.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 75,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward FA 2000, but the model still strongly favours Fremad Amager.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1414,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.18,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4199,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4587155963302752,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2241,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "5/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.625,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.2,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 75,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 6.35,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.35,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.31,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.29,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.31,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.29 \u00b7 Away xG 1.31 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -17.7,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -17.7%",
"steam_team": "FA 2000",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward FA 2000, but the model still strongly favours Fremad Amager.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward FA 2000, but the model still strongly favours Fremad Amager."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward FA 2000, but the model still strongly favours Fremad Amager."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0671,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0671,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Fremad Amager at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Fremad Amager as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward FA 2000, but the model still strongly favours Fremad Amager.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Fremad Amager",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "75 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward FA 2000, but the model still strongly favours Fremad Amager.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 75,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward FA 2000, but the model still strongly favours Fremad Amager.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1414,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.18,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4199,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4587155963302752,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2241,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward FA 2000, but the model still strongly favours Fremad Amager.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: FA 2000 1.29 xG vs Fremad Amager 1.31 \u2192 Fremad Amager 35.6%",
"Market: Fremad Amager ~42.0% implied",
"Market Steam: FA 2000 \u2193 -17.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Fremad Amager, but sharp money moved toward FA 2000.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 2.92,
"fair_prob": 34.7,
"label": "FA 2000",
"market_prob": 31.78,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.42,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.23,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.35,
"fair_prob": 35.64,
"label": "Fremad Amager",
"market_prob": 41.99,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.82,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 54.02,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.82,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 45.98,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.41,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 57.91,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.41,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 42.09,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -6.35,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Fremad Amager",
"market_prob_pct": 41.99,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "FA 2000"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Fremad Amager\u0027s win probability at 42.0%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 35.6%, a difference of 6.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 6.35,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Fremad Amager",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 42.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-6.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -6.4,
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-6.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -6.4,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 75,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward FA 2000, but the model still strongly favours Fremad Amager. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: FA 2000 1.29 xG vs Fremad Amager 1.31 \u2192 Fremad Amager 35.6%",
"Market: Fremad Amager ~42.0% implied",
"Market Steam: FA 2000 \u2193 -17.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Fremad Amager, but sharp money moved toward FA 2000.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.35,
"hero_label": "Fremad Amager",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "FA 2000 odds shortened \u2193 -17.7%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on FA 2000, with odds shortening by 17.7%.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Fremad Amager. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Buying interest on FA 2000 \u2014 odds shortened by 17.7%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Fremad Amager. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on FA 2000, with odds shortening by 17.7%.",
"Buying interest on FA 2000 \u2014 odds shortened by 17.7%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Fremad Amager above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, FA 2000 has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 17.7%."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 6.35,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.9,
"max_prob_pct": 35.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Fremad Amager",
"largest_gap_pp": -6.3,
"lead": "The closing market prices Fremad Amager higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.3,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 2.92,
"edge_pp": 2.92,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "FA 2000",
"market_prob_pct": 31.78,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.42,
"edge_pp": 3.42,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.23,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -6.35,
"edge_pp": -6.35,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Fremad Amager",
"market_prob_pct": 41.99,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on FA 2000 \u2014 odds shortened by 17.7%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Fremad Amager (42.0%).",
"However, FA 2000 has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -17.7%, 5/8).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Fremad Amager, Market \u2192 Fremad Amager, Recent sharp money \u2192 FA 2000.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 45.87,
"closing_odds": 2.18,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 45.87,
"entry_odds": 2.18,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -20.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -20.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -17.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -17.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -17.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -17.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -13.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -13.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.7
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "5/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.88,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -17.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 17.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 72h 2m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on FA 2000 (17.7%, 5/8) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -17.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.50",
"3.19",
"2.88"
],
"display": "3.60 \u2192 2.80 \u2192 2.88",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 72h 2m",
"pick_team": "FA 2000",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.60"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.80"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.88"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.5,
2.88
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.88"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.50"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.88"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.5,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: FA 2000 \u2193 -17.7% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "FA 2000",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: FA 2000 \u2193 -17.7% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.88,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -17.7%",
"open_odds": 3.5,
"summary": "Market moved toward FA 2000 while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "FA 2000",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 76,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/8",
"current_odds": 2.88,
"move_display": "\u2193 -17.7%",
"open_odds": 3.5,
"pick_team": "FA 2000",
"steam_score": 76,
"steam_team_name": "FA 2000",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "fremad-amager",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Fremad Amager",
"away_team_id": 2065,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2065.webp",
"away_team_name": "Fremad Amager",
"away_team_public_id": "0ibOOe2lqadCnm",
"away_team_slug": "fremad-amager",
"country_code": "DK",
"country_display_name": "Denmark",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/dk.svg",
"country_id": 44,
"country_name": "Denmark",
"fixture_id": 1575803,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Denmark",
"home_team_display_name": "FA 2000",
"home_team_id": 8634,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/8634.webp",
"home_team_name": "FA 2000",
"home_team_public_id": "2aN0aIBvWrlQGe",
"home_team_slug": "fa-2000",
"ht.home_team_slug": "fa-2000",
"league_country": "Denmark",
"league_country_display": "Denmark",
"league_display_name": "Gi\u1ea3i H\u1ea1ng Nh\u00ec \u0110an M\u1ea1ch",
"league_id": 122,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/122.webp",
"league_name": "Gi\u1ea3i H\u1ea1ng Nh\u00ec \u0110an M\u1ea1ch",
"league_public_id": "33l1w2IW44eeLB",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 12:00:00",
"public_id": "3nlMfxRGdMeqq0",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4068,
"best_odd": 2.18,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.026,
"ev": -0.1414,
"implied_prob": 0.4199,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4199,
"draw": 0.2623,
"home": 0.3178
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"p_final": 0.3939
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2845,
"best_odd": 3.49,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0098,
"ev": -0.0504,
"implied_prob": 0.2623,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4199,
"draw": 0.2623,
"home": 0.3178
},
"model_prob": 0.2968,
"p_final": 0.2721
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4301,
"best_odd": 2.88,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0127,
"ev": -0.0482,
"implied_prob": 0.3178,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4199,
"draw": 0.2623,
"home": 0.3178
},
"model_prob": 0.3473,
"p_final": 0.3305
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.18,
"edge": -0.1028,
"ev": -0.2241,
"implied_prob": 0.4587,
"model_prob": 0.3559
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.49,
"edge": 0.0103,
"ev": 0.0358,
"implied_prob": 0.2865,
"model_prob": 0.2968
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.88,
"edge": 0.0001,
"ev": 0.0002,
"implied_prob": 0.3472,
"model_prob": 0.3473
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2136,
"alpha_yes": 0.235,
"best_no_odd": 2.25,
"best_yes_odd": 1.62,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0341,
"edge_yes": -0.0341,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0237,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0701,
"ev_yes": -0.1171,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0982,
"implied_no": 0.4209,
"implied_yes": 0.5791,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2136,
"best_odd": 2.17,
"edge": 0.0072,
"ev": -0.0701,
"implied_prob": 0.4213,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4285
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.235,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": -0.0079,
"ev": -0.0982,
"implied_prob": 0.5787,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5708
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.4285,
"p_final_yes": 0.5708,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2262,
"alpha_under": 0.2057,
"best_over_odd": 1.75,
"best_under_odd": 2.06,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.7,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.99,
"edge_over": -0.0582,
"edge_under": 0.0582,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1565,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1052,
"ev_under": 0.0671,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0597,
"implied_over": 0.5402,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5393,
"implied_under": 0.4598,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4607,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2262,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": -0.013,
"ev": -0.1052,
"implied_prob": 0.5393,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5263
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2057,
"best_odd": 1.99,
"edge": 0.0118,
"ev": -0.0597,
"implied_prob": 0.4607,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4725
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5263,
"p_final_under": 0.4725,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0671,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0671,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0671,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.8
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward FA 2000, but the model still strongly favours Fremad Amager."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0671,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0671,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Fremad Amager at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Fremad Amager as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward FA 2000, but the model still strongly favours Fremad Amager.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Fremad Amager",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "75 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward FA 2000, but the model still strongly favours Fremad Amager.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 75,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward FA 2000, but the model still strongly favours Fremad Amager.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1414,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.18,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4199,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4587155963302752,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2241,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2968,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3559,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.02
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.18,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.026,
"ev": -0.1414,
"implied_prob": 0.4199,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Fremad Amager"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2136,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.17,
"edge": 0.0072,
"market_prob": 0.4213,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2136,
"best_odd": 2.17,
"edge": 0.0072,
"ev": -0.0701,
"implied_prob": 0.4213,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4285
},
"p_final": 0.4285,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0701,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.235,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": -0.0079,
"ev": -0.0982,
"implied_prob": 0.5787,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5708
}
},
"edge": 0.0341,
"ev": 0.0237,
"implied_prob": 0.4209,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2057,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.99,
"edge": 0.0118,
"market_prob": 0.4607,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2262,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": -0.013,
"ev": -0.1052,
"implied_prob": 0.5393,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5263
},
"p_final": 0.4725,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0597,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2057,
"best_odd": 1.99,
"edge": 0.0118,
"ev": -0.0597,
"implied_prob": 0.4607,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4725
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0582,
"ev": 0.0671,
"implied_prob": 0.4598,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1575803,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0671,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3559,
"draw": 0.2968,
"home": 0.3473
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Fremad Amager",
"home": "FA 2000"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.02433,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0671,
"implied_prob": 0.4598,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1414,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.18,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4199,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4587155963302752,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2241,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1575803,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T11:58:09.662936+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho FA 2000 & Fremad Amager!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Giải Hạng Nhì Đan Mạch — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nykobing FC | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 22 |
| 2 | Roskilde | 11 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 21 |
| 3 | VSK Århus | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 18 |
| 4 | B 93 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 5 | Middelfart | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 17 |
| 6 | Naestved BK | 11 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 16 |
| 7 | Skive | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 8 | Fremad Amager | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 | Brabrand IF | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 12 |
| 10 | HIK | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 |
| 11 | FA 2000 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 6 |
| 12 | Thisted FC | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 5 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nykobing FC | 10 | 25 | 11 | +14 | 22 |
| 2 | Roskilde | 11 | 21 | 10 | +11 | 21 |
| 3 | Middelfart | 11 | 19 | 13 | +6 | 17 |
| 4 | B 93 | 11 | 19 | 14 | +5 | 18 |
| 5 | Naestved BK | 11 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 16 |
| 6 | VSK Århus | 10 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 18 |
| 7 | Skive | 11 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 14 |
| 8 | Fremad Amager | 11 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 14 |
| 9 | Brabrand IF | 11 | 13 | 18 | -5 | 12 |
| 10 | FA 2000 | 11 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 6 |
| 11 | HIK | 11 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 9 |
| 12 | Thisted FC | 11 | 9 | 22 | -13 | 5 |
