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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Brühl Cham ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.24
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Cham win · Cham 2–1 Brühl
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
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"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "109de152477c69454324fa79d524864c6806783590898564012565d272e18034",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.33,
"away_win_prob": 0.3659,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2964,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.73,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.96,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.27,
"home_win_prob": 0.3377,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Cham or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Cham"
},
"away_xg": 1.33,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Br\u00fchl",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0306,
"edge_gap": 0.0284,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3354,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 36.6,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 33.8
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.73
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.73,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Br\u00fchl Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.98,
"market_odds": 2.73,
"model_odds": 2.73,
"overround": 9.2,
"prob_edge": 0.0,
"value_pct": 0.0,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 2,
"away_failed_to_score": 3,
"away_played": 7,
"away_score_rate": 73.6,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 2,
"home_played": 7,
"home_score_rate": 71.9,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.33,
"home_expected": 1.27,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Cham or Draw",
"prob": 63.4
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Cham or Br\u00fchl",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Br\u00fchl",
"prob": 66.2
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Cham or Br\u00fchl",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 36.6,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 33.8,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Br\u00fchl"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.6,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 6.0,
"implied_prob": 27.9,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.6,
"odds": 3.58
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Br\u00fchl",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 33.54,
"draw": 25.58,
"home": 40.88
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 14:06:11",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 13:42:52",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Cham",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 40.88,
"gap_pp": -7.13,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 33.75
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.58,
"gap_pp": 4.07,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.65
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 33.54,
"gap_pp": 3.06,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 36.6
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.24,
"early": 2.24,
"implied_closing_pct": 40.88,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 40.88,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.58,
"early": 3.58,
"implied_closing_pct": 25.58,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 25.58,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.73,
"early": 2.73,
"implied_closing_pct": 33.54,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 33.54,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 4.1,
"kind": "1x2_d"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 2.0,
"ev": 0.1875,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 9.5,
"market_prob": 0.1053,
"market_prob_pct": 10.5,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.27,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1265,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.83,
"edge": 0.0251,
"edge_pp": 2.5,
"market_prob": 0.3197,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1739,
"best_odd": 1.33,
"edge": -0.0345,
"ev": -0.1411,
"implied_prob": 0.6803,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6458
},
"p_final": 0.3448,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 19.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4659,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0243,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1265,
"best_odd": 2.83,
"edge": 0.0251,
"ev": -0.0243,
"implied_prob": 0.3197,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3448
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3445,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -34.4,
"text": "-34.4%"
},
"ev_under": 0.6576,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 65.8,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.6576,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10741.84,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1412,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.885,
"edge": 0.0203,
"edge_pp": 2.0,
"market_prob": 0.3115,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1412,
"best_odd": 2.885,
"edge": 0.0203,
"ev": -0.043,
"implied_prob": 0.3115,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3317
},
"p_final": 0.3317,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3127,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.043,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1942,
"best_odd": 1.305,
"edge": -0.0279,
"ev": -0.1378,
"implied_prob": 0.6885,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6607
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.456,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 45.6,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_yes": -0.2751,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -27.5,
"text": "-27.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10410.4,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has repriced Cham, but the model still strongly favours Br\u00fchl.",
"consensus_odds": 2.73,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0485,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.9,
"text": "-4.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3354,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0433,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.3,
"text": "-4.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.1,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0008,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-0.1%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Br\u00fchl",
"sort_key": 1789.175,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 7.1,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -7.11,
"hero_label": "Cham",
"market_prob_pct": 33.5,
"market_team": "Cham",
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"model_team": "Br\u00fchl",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.1,
"summary": "The market has repriced Cham, but the model still strongly favours Br\u00fchl."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.1,
"summary": "The market has repriced Cham, but the model still strongly favours Br\u00fchl."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.6576,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6576,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 37,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Br\u00fchl at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 33.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Br\u00fchl as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Cham, but the model still strongly favours Br\u00fchl.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Br\u00fchl",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +65.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +65.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +65.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "37 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+65.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Cham, but the model still strongly favours Br\u00fchl.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Cham, but the model still strongly favours Br\u00fchl.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0485,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.73,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3354,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3663003663003663,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0008,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-0.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "7/7",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 83,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 7.11,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.11,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.33,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.27,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.33,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.27 \u00b7 Away xG 1.33 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Cham",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has repriced Cham, but the model still strongly favours Br\u00fchl.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.1,
"summary": "The market has repriced Cham, but the model still strongly favours Br\u00fchl."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.1,
"summary": "The market has repriced Cham, but the model still strongly favours Br\u00fchl."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.6576,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6576,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 37,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Br\u00fchl at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 33.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Br\u00fchl as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Cham, but the model still strongly favours Br\u00fchl.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Br\u00fchl",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +65.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +65.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +65.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "37 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+65.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Cham, but the model still strongly favours Br\u00fchl.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Cham, but the model still strongly favours Br\u00fchl.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0485,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.73,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3354,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3663003663003663,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0008,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-0.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has repriced Cham, but the model still strongly favours Br\u00fchl.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Cham 1.27 xG vs Br\u00fchl 1.33 \u2192 Br\u00fchl 36.6%",
"Market: Cham ~33.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Cham +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Br\u00fchl with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -7.11,
"fair_prob": 33.77,
"label": "Cham",
"market_prob": 40.88,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.06,
"fair_prob": 29.64,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.58,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.05,
"fair_prob": 36.59,
"label": "Br\u00fchl",
"market_prob": 33.54,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -20.12,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 68.32,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 20.12,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 31.68,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.82,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 69.32,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.82,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 30.68,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -7.11,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Cham",
"market_prob_pct": 40.88,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Cham"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Cham\u0027s win probability at 40.9%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 7.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 7.11,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Br\u00fchl",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 33.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+3.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 3.1,
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+3.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 3.1,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 83,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "The market has repriced Cham, but the model still strongly favours Br\u00fchl. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Cham 1.27 xG vs Br\u00fchl 1.33 \u2192 Br\u00fchl 36.6%",
"Market: Cham ~33.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Cham +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Br\u00fchl with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -7.11,
"hero_label": "Cham",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Cham. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Cham.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Cham. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Cham."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Cham above the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Cham (+0.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/7) supports the current market view on Cham."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 7.11,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.8,
"max_prob_pct": 36.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Cham",
"largest_gap_pp": -7.1,
"lead": "The closing market prices Cham higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.1,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -7.11,
"edge_pp": -7.11,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Cham",
"market_prob_pct": 40.88,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.06,
"edge_pp": 4.06,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.58,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.05,
"edge_pp": 3.05,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Br\u00fchl",
"market_prob_pct": 33.54,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Cham.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Cham (33.5%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Br\u00fchl, Market \u2192 Cham, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 44.64,
"closing_odds": 2.24,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 44.64,
"entry_odds": 2.24,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/7",
"current_odds": 2.2,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.2,
"pick_team": "Cham",
"steam_score": 32,
"steam_team_name": "Cham",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 7.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "bruhl",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Br\u00fchl",
"away_team_id": 10587,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/10587.webp",
"away_team_name": "Br\u00fchl",
"away_team_public_id": "4gGVvhHJSuAhjo",
"away_team_slug": "bruhl",
"country_code": "CH",
"country_display_name": "Switzerland",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ch.svg",
"country_id": 149,
"country_name": "Switzerland",
"fixture_id": 1574346,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Switzerland",
"home_team_display_name": "Cham",
"home_team_id": 6621,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/6621.webp",
"home_team_name": "Cham",
"home_team_public_id": "5AtLFBRwl3i8O4",
"home_team_slug": "cham",
"ht.home_team_slug": "cham",
"league_country": "Switzerland",
"league_country_display": "Switzerland",
"league_display_name": "1. Liga Promotion",
"league_id": 510,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/510.webp",
"league_name": "1. Liga Promotion",
"league_public_id": "0toRSZfpf2Yp3y",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 14:00:00",
"public_id": "5zm6flA2lgC30t",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4294,
"best_odd": 2.73,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0131,
"ev": -0.0485,
"implied_prob": 0.3354,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3354,
"draw": 0.2558,
"home": 0.4088
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"p_final": 0.3485
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2817,
"best_odd": 3.58,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0115,
"ev": -0.0433,
"implied_prob": 0.2558,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3354,
"draw": 0.2558,
"home": 0.4088
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.2672
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4019,
"best_odd": 2.24,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0286,
"ev": -0.1484,
"implied_prob": 0.4088,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3354,
"draw": 0.2558,
"home": 0.4088
},
"model_prob": 0.3375,
"p_final": 0.3802
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.73,
"edge": -0.0003,
"ev": -0.0009,
"implied_prob": 0.3663,
"model_prob": 0.366
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.58,
"edge": 0.0171,
"ev": 0.0614,
"implied_prob": 0.2793,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.24,
"edge": -0.1089,
"ev": -0.2439,
"implied_prob": 0.4464,
"model_prob": 0.3375
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1412,
"alpha_yes": 0.1942,
"best_no_odd": 3.2,
"best_yes_odd": 1.33,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1482,
"edge_yes": -0.1482,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.456,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.043,
"ev_yes": -0.2751,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1378,
"implied_no": 0.3068,
"implied_yes": 0.6932,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1412,
"best_odd": 2.885,
"edge": 0.0203,
"ev": -0.043,
"implied_prob": 0.3115,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3317
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1942,
"best_odd": 1.305,
"edge": -0.0279,
"ev": -0.1378,
"implied_prob": 0.6885,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6607
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.3317,
"p_final_yes": 0.6607,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1739,
"alpha_under": 0.1265,
"best_over_odd": 1.36,
"best_under_odd": 3.2,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.33,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.83,
"edge_over": -0.2012,
"edge_under": 0.2012,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3445,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1411,
"ev_under": 0.6576,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0243,
"implied_over": 0.6832,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6803,
"implied_under": 0.3168,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3197,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1739,
"best_odd": 1.33,
"edge": -0.0345,
"ev": -0.1411,
"implied_prob": 0.6803,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6458
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1265,
"best_odd": 2.83,
"edge": 0.0251,
"ev": -0.0243,
"implied_prob": 0.3197,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3448
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6458,
"p_final_under": 0.3448,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.6576,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6576,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.6576,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.8
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.1,
"summary": "The market has repriced Cham, but the model still strongly favours Br\u00fchl."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.6576,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6576,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 37,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Br\u00fchl at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 33.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Br\u00fchl as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Cham, but the model still strongly favours Br\u00fchl.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Br\u00fchl",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +65.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +65.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +65.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "37 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+65.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Cham, but the model still strongly favours Br\u00fchl.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Cham, but the model still strongly favours Br\u00fchl.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0485,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.73,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3354,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3663003663003663,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0008,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-0.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.366,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.73,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0131,
"ev": -0.0485,
"implied_prob": 0.3354,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.366,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Br\u00fchl"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1412,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.885,
"edge": 0.0203,
"market_prob": 0.3115,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1412,
"best_odd": 2.885,
"edge": 0.0203,
"ev": -0.043,
"implied_prob": 0.3115,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3317
},
"p_final": 0.3317,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.043,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1942,
"best_odd": 1.305,
"edge": -0.0279,
"ev": -0.1378,
"implied_prob": 0.6885,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6607
}
},
"edge": 0.1482,
"ev": 0.456,
"implied_prob": 0.3068,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1265,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.83,
"edge": 0.0251,
"market_prob": 0.3197,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1739,
"best_odd": 1.33,
"edge": -0.0345,
"ev": -0.1411,
"implied_prob": 0.6803,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6458
},
"p_final": 0.3448,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0243,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1265,
"best_odd": 2.83,
"edge": 0.0251,
"ev": -0.0243,
"implied_prob": 0.3197,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3448
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.2012,
"ev": 0.6576,
"implied_prob": 0.3168,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1574346,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.6576,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.366,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.3375
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.456,
"implied_prob": 0.3068,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.456,
"implied_prob": 0.3068,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Br\u00fchl",
"home": "Cham"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.238446,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.6576,
"implied_prob": 0.3168,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0485,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.73,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3354,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3663003663003663,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0008,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-0.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1574346,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T14:06:13.048566+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Cham & Brühl!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
1. Liga Promotion — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Biel-Bienne | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 22 |
| 2 | FC Schaffhausen | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 |
| 3 | Cham | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 |
| 4 | Grand-Saconnex | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 18 |
| 5 | Bulle | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 6 | Paradiso | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 7 | YF Juventus | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 8 | Amical Saint-Prex | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 9 | Basel II | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 10 | Brühl | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 11 | Young Boys II | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 12 | Zürich II | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 13 | Breitenrain | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 14 | Kreuzlingen | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 15 | Lugano II | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 16 | Bavois | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 17 | Luzern II | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 18 | Bellinzona | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Biel-Bienne | 9 | 21 | 9 | +12 | 22 |
| 2 | Paradiso | 9 | 19 | 9 | +10 | 16 |
| 3 | Grand-Saconnex | 9 | 19 | 13 | +6 | 18 |
| 4 | Bulle | 9 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 17 |
| 5 | Young Boys II | 9 | 17 | 21 | -4 | 11 |
| 6 | Basel II | 9 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 12 |
| 7 | FC Schaffhausen | 9 | 15 | 10 | +5 | 19 |
| 8 | Lugano II | 9 | 15 | 21 | -6 | 9 |
| 9 | Cham | 9 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 19 |
| 10 | Zürich II | 9 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 11 |
| 11 | YF Juventus | 9 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 13 |
| 12 | Luzern II | 9 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Amical Saint-Prex | 9 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 13 |
| 14 | Brühl | 9 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 11 |
| 15 | Bavois | 9 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 8 |
| 16 | Breitenrain | 8 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 10 |
| 17 | Kreuzlingen | 9 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 9 |
| 18 | Bellinzona | 8 | 5 | 16 | -11 | 4 |
