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Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (5 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 FC Levante Badalona FC Levante Badalona ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-4 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.13
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
FC Levante Badalona win · Eibar Nữ 1–4 FC Levante Badalona
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
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"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.33,
"away_win_prob": 0.3659,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2964,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.73,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.96,
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"home_predicted_xg": 1.27,
"home_win_prob": 0.3377,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : Eibar N\u1eef or draw and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Eibar N\u1eef"
},
"away_xg": 1.33,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "FC Levante Badalona",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0637,
"edge_gap": 0.0284,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4297,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 36.6,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 33.8
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.13
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.13,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "FC Levante Badalonain",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.33,
"market_odds": 2.13,
"model_odds": 2.73,
"overround": 9.3,
"prob_edge": -10.3,
"value_pct": -22.0,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 1,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 2,
"away_score_rate": 73.6,
"home_clean_sheet": 2,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 2,
"home_score_rate": 71.9,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.33,
"home_expected": 1.27,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Eibar N\u1eef or Draw",
"prob": 63.4
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Eibar N\u1eef or FC Levante Badalona",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or FC Levante Badalona",
"prob": 66.2
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Eibar N\u1eef or FC Levante Badalona",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 36.6,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 33.8,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "FC Levante Badalona"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 8.5,
"implied_prob": 31.2,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Eibar N\u1eef Win",
"model_prob": 33.8,
"odds": 3.21
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "FC Levante Badalona",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 42.97,
"draw": 28.51,
"home": 28.51
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-13 17:29:33",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-13 17:02:25",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Eibar N\u1eef",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.51,
"gap_pp": 5.24,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 33.75
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.51,
"gap_pp": 1.13,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.65
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 42.97,
"gap_pp": -6.37,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 36.6
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 41.34,
"gap_pp": 6.86,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 58.66,
"gap_pp": -6.86,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 3.21,
"early": 3.21,
"implied_closing_pct": 28.51,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 28.51,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.21,
"early": 3.21,
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"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.13,
"early": 2.13,
"implied_closing_pct": 42.97,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.27,
"early": 2.27,
"implied_closing_pct": 41.34,
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"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.6,
"early": 1.6,
"implied_closing_pct": 58.66,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 58.66,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 6.9,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -2.9,
"ev": -0.1875,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.5,
"market_prob": 0.1538,
"market_prob_pct": 15.4,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.27,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2018,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.92,
"edge": 0.0139,
"edge_pp": 1.4,
"market_prob": 0.4761,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2219,
"best_odd": 1.745,
"edge": -0.0153,
"ev": -0.1125,
"implied_prob": 0.5239,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5086
},
"p_final": 0.49,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0464,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0592,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2018,
"best_odd": 1.92,
"edge": 0.0139,
"ev": -0.0592,
"implied_prob": 0.4761,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.49
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1901,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -19.0,
"text": "-19.0%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.1445,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 14.4,
"text": "+14.4%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1445,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10280.05,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1624,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.21,
"edge": 0.0106,
"edge_pp": 1.1,
"market_prob": 0.4169,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1624,
"best_odd": 2.21,
"edge": 0.0106,
"ev": -0.0553,
"implied_prob": 0.4169,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4275
},
"p_final": 0.4275,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.5,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0652,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0553,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2233,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": -0.0145,
"ev": -0.1017,
"implied_prob": 0.5831,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5686
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0941,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 9.4,
"text": "+9.4%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1608,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.1,
"text": "-16.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0941,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10084.69,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.14,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -14.0,
"text": "-14.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4297,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0382,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.8,
"text": "-3.8%"
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2204,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.0%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "FC Levante Badalona",
"sort_key": 1790.45,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "4/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "4/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +4.8%",
"alert_team": "Eibar N\u1eef",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 6.4,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.38,
"hero_label": "FC Levante Badalona",
"market_prob_pct": 43.0,
"market_team": "FC Levante Badalona",
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"model_team": "FC Levante Badalona",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 28,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FC Levante Badalona)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FC Levante Badalona)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1445,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1445,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.6,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 81,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates FC Levante Badalona at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies FC Levante Badalona as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "FC Levante Badalona",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FC Levante Badalona).",
"Decision strength: 5.6/10"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.14,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4297,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4694835680751174,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2204,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "4/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.4444444444444444,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 4.4,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 78,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 6.38,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.38,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.33,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.27,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.33,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.27 \u00b7 Away xG 1.33 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.8,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +4.8%",
"steam_team": "Eibar N\u1eef",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 81,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 68,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 68,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FC Levante Badalona).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FC Levante Badalona)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FC Levante Badalona)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1445,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1445,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.6,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 81,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates FC Levante Badalona at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies FC Levante Badalona as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "FC Levante Badalona",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FC Levante Badalona).",
"Decision strength: 5.6/10"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.14,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4297,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4694835680751174,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2204,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Eibar N\u1eef 1.27 xG vs FC Levante Badalona 1.33 \u2192 FC Levante Badalona 36.6%",
"Market: FC Levante Badalona ~43.0% implied",
"Market Drift: Eibar N\u1eef odds \u2191 +4.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean FC Levante Badalona with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 5.26,
"fair_prob": 33.77,
"label": "Eibar N\u1eef",
"market_prob": 28.51,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.13,
"fair_prob": 29.64,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.51,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.38,
"fair_prob": 36.59,
"label": "FC Levante Badalona",
"market_prob": 42.97,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.41,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 41.79,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.41,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 58.21,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.58,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 46.92,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.58,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 53.08,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -6.38,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "FC Levante Badalona",
"market_prob_pct": 42.97,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Eibar N\u1eef"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates FC Levante Badalona\u0027s win probability at 43.0%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 36.6%, a difference of 6.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 6.38,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "FC Levante Badalona",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 43.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-6.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -6.4,
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-6.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -6.4,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 78,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "FC Levante Badalona \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 81,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 68,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 68,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Eibar N\u1eef 1.27 xG vs FC Levante Badalona 1.33 \u2192 FC Levante Badalona 36.6%",
"Market: FC Levante Badalona ~43.0% implied",
"Market Drift: Eibar N\u1eef odds \u2191 +4.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean FC Levante Badalona with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.38,
"hero_label": "FC Levante Badalona",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Eibar N\u1eef odds lengthened \u2191 +4.8%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Eibar N\u1eef has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.8%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (4/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on FC Levante Badalona. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on FC Levante Badalona. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, Eibar N\u1eef has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.8%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (4/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices FC Levante Badalona above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Eibar N\u1eef has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (4/9), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 6.38,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.8,
"max_prob_pct": 36.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "FC Levante Badalona",
"largest_gap_pp": -6.4,
"lead": "The closing market prices FC Levante Badalona higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.4,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 5.26,
"edge_pp": 5.26,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Eibar N\u1eef",
"market_prob_pct": 28.51,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.13,
"edge_pp": 1.13,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.51,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -6.38,
"edge_pp": -6.38,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "FC Levante Badalona",
"market_prob_pct": 42.97,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers FC Levante Badalona (43.0%).",
"Eibar N\u1eef odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +4.8%, 4/9) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"FC Levante Badalona \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 46.95,
"closing_odds": 2.13,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 46.95,
"entry_odds": 2.13,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 4,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.8
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "4/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.25,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 4.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 15h 41m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Eibar N\u1eef (swing 3.30 \u2192 2.80 \u2192 3.25) \u2014 net 4.8% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.8,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.25",
"3.17",
"3.10"
],
"display": "3.30 \u2192 2.80 \u2192 3.25",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 15h 41m",
"pick_team": "Eibar N\u1eef",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.80"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.25"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.1,
3.21,
3.25
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,4.8 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.25"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.25"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.1,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Eibar N\u1eef",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.25,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.8%",
"open_odds": 3.1,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Eibar N\u1eef",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 28,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/9",
"current_odds": 3.25,
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.8%",
"open_odds": 3.1,
"pick_team": "Eibar N\u1eef",
"steam_score": 28,
"steam_team_name": "Eibar N\u1eef",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "fc-levante-badalona",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "FC Levante Badalona",
"away_team_id": 19896,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/19896.webp",
"away_team_name": "FC Levante Badalona",
"away_team_name_canonical": "FC Levante Badalona",
"away_team_public_id": "00UVngsL8GJrpc",
"away_team_slug": "fc-levante-badalona",
"country_code": "ES",
"country_display_name": "Spain",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
"country_id": 145,
"country_name": "Spain",
"fixture_id": 1573581,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Spain",
"home_team_display_name": "Eibar N\u1eef",
"home_team_id": 15225,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/15225.webp",
"home_team_name": "Eibar N\u1eef",
"home_team_public_id": "16mg2CftwezJCS",
"home_team_slug": "eibar-w",
"ht.home_team_slug": "eibar-w",
"league_country": "Spain",
"league_country_display": "Spain",
"league_display_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n Femenina",
"league_id": 142,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/142.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n Femenina",
"league_public_id": "3UVWpFHIZoilN7",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-13 17:30:00",
"public_id": "2NOD91JT20y9kq",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Eibar",
"venue_name": "Estadio Municipal de Ipurua"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.407,
"best_odd": 2.13,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0259,
"ev": -0.14,
"implied_prob": 0.4297,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4297,
"draw": 0.2851,
"home": 0.2851
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"p_final": 0.4038
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2949,
"best_odd": 3.21,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0033,
"ev": -0.074,
"implied_prob": 0.2851,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4297,
"draw": 0.2851,
"home": 0.2851
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.2885
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2764,
"best_odd": 3.21,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0145,
"ev": -0.0382,
"implied_prob": 0.2851,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4297,
"draw": 0.2851,
"home": 0.2851
},
"model_prob": 0.3375,
"p_final": 0.2996
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.13,
"edge": -0.1035,
"ev": -0.2205,
"implied_prob": 0.4695,
"model_prob": 0.366
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.21,
"edge": -0.015,
"ev": -0.0483,
"implied_prob": 0.3115,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.21,
"edge": 0.026,
"ev": 0.0835,
"implied_prob": 0.3115,
"model_prob": 0.3375
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2219,
"alpha_yes": 0.2018,
"best_no_odd": 1.78,
"best_yes_odd": 2.1,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0758,
"edge_yes": 0.0758,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1901,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1125,
"ev_yes": 0.1445,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0592,
"implied_no": 0.5308,
"implied_yes": 0.4692,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2219,
"best_odd": 1.745,
"edge": -0.0153,
"ev": -0.1125,
"implied_prob": 0.5239,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5086
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2018,
"best_odd": 1.92,
"edge": 0.0139,
"ev": -0.0592,
"implied_prob": 0.4761,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.49
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.5086,
"p_final_yes": 0.49,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1624,
"alpha_under": 0.2233,
"best_over_odd": 2.27,
"best_under_odd": 1.62,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.21,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.58,
"edge_over": 0.0641,
"edge_under": -0.0641,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0941,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0553,
"ev_under": -0.1608,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1017,
"implied_over": 0.4179,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4169,
"implied_under": 0.5821,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5831,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1624,
"best_odd": 2.21,
"edge": 0.0106,
"ev": -0.0553,
"implied_prob": 0.4169,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4275
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2233,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": -0.0145,
"ev": -0.1017,
"implied_prob": 0.5831,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5686
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4275,
"p_final_under": 0.5686,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1445,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1445,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1445,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.6,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.6
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FC Levante Badalona)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1445,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1445,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.6,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 81,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates FC Levante Badalona at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies FC Levante Badalona as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "FC Levante Badalona",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FC Levante Badalona).",
"Decision strength: 5.6/10"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.14,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4297,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4694835680751174,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2204,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.366,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0259,
"ev": -0.14,
"implied_prob": 0.4297,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.366,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "FC Levante Badalona"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2018,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.92,
"edge": 0.0139,
"market_prob": 0.4761,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2219,
"best_odd": 1.745,
"edge": -0.0153,
"ev": -0.1125,
"implied_prob": 0.5239,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5086
},
"p_final": 0.49,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0592,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2018,
"best_odd": 1.92,
"edge": 0.0139,
"ev": -0.0592,
"implied_prob": 0.4761,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.49
}
},
"edge": 0.0758,
"ev": 0.1445,
"implied_prob": 0.4692,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1624,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.21,
"edge": 0.0106,
"market_prob": 0.4169,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1624,
"best_odd": 2.21,
"edge": 0.0106,
"ev": -0.0553,
"implied_prob": 0.4169,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4275
},
"p_final": 0.4275,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0553,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2233,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": -0.0145,
"ev": -0.1017,
"implied_prob": 0.5831,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5686
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0641,
"ev": 0.0941,
"implied_prob": 0.4179,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1573581,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1445,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.366,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.3375
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "FC Levante Badalona",
"home": "Eibar N\u1eef"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.078753,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1445,
"implied_prob": 0.4692,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.14,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4297,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4694835680751174,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2204,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1573581,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-13T17:29:35.987057+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Eibar Nữ & FC Levante Badalona!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Primera División Femenina — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona Nữ | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| 2 | Real Madrid Nữ | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 3 | Madrid CFF W | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 4 | Athletic Club Nữ | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 5 | FC Levante Badalona | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | Eibar Nữ | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Atlético Madrid Nữ | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 8 | Edf Logroño W | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 9 | Sevilla Nữ | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 10 | Granada | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 11 | Deportivo Alavés | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 12 | Espanyol Nữ | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 13 | Deportivo de La Coruña W | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 14 | Real Sociedad Nữ | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 15 | Granadilla Tenerife Nữ | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 16 | Valencia W | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona Nữ | 5 | 21 | 2 | +19 | 15 |
| 2 | Real Madrid Nữ | 5 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 13 |
| 3 | Madrid CFF W | 5 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 12 |
| 4 | Espanyol Nữ | 4 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 4 |
| 5 | Athletic Club Nữ | 4 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 7 |
| 6 | FC Levante Badalona | 5 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 7 |
| 7 | Atlético Madrid Nữ | 4 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 6 |
| 8 | Real Sociedad Nữ | 5 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 2 |
| 9 | Granada | 5 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 6 |
| 10 | Edf Logroño W | 5 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 6 |
| 11 | Sevilla Nữ | 4 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 6 |
| 12 | Deportivo de La Coruña W | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 13 | Eibar Nữ | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Deportivo Alavés | 5 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 6 |
| 15 | Valencia W | 4 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 0 |
| 16 | Granadilla Tenerife Nữ | 4 | 2 | 9 | -7 | 2 |
