Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Gernika Sestao River ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Sestao River win · Gernika 1–2 Sestao River
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "6d006c59165c3c81a51d6e635f446fbf5c842e4b10cdae26d1eb8e69834aeabd",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.28,
"away_win_prob": 0.3424,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.92,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.77,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.32,
"home_win_prob": 0.3611,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Sestao River",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Sestao River"
},
"away_xg": 1.28,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Gernika",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0056,
"edge_gap": 0.0185,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3554,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 34.2,
"draw": 29.7,
"home": 36.1
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.58
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.58,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Gernika Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.81,
"market_odds": 2.58,
"model_odds": 2.77,
"overround": 9.1,
"prob_edge": -2.7,
"value_pct": -6.9,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 3,
"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 4,
"away_score_rate": 72.2,
"home_clean_sheet": 2,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 4,
"home_score_rate": 73.3,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.28,
"home_expected": 1.32,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Gernika or Draw",
"prob": 65.7
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Gernika or Sestao River",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Sestao River",
"prob": 63.8
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Gernika or Sestao River",
"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 34.2,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 36.1,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Gernika"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.3,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 2.8,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": -6.9,
"implied_prob": 38.8,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Gernika Win",
"model_prob": 36.1,
"odds": 2.58
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Sestao River",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 32.63,
"draw": 31.84,
"home": 35.54
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-04 15:00:26",
"closing_source": "apis_closing_odds",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-04 14:31:10",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Gernika",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 35.54,
"gap_pp": 0.56,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 36.09
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 31.84,
"gap_pp": -2.17,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.67
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 32.63,
"gap_pp": 1.61,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 34.24
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 40.26,
"gap_pp": 7.94,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 59.74,
"gap_pp": -7.94,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.58,
"early": 2.58,
"implied_closing_pct": 35.54,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 35.54,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 2.88,
"early": 2.88,
"implied_closing_pct": 31.84,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 31.84,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.81,
"early": 2.81,
"implied_closing_pct": 32.63,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 32.63,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.33,
"early": 2.33,
"implied_closing_pct": 40.26,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 40.26,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.57,
"early": 1.57,
"implied_closing_pct": 59.74,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 59.74,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 7.9,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.7,
"ev": -0.12,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.04,
"market_prob": 0.142,
"market_prob_pct": 14.2,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.32,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1501,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.49,
"edge": 0.0166,
"edge_pp": 1.7,
"market_prob": 0.3712,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1501,
"best_odd": 2.49,
"edge": 0.0166,
"ev": -0.0343,
"implied_prob": 0.3712,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3878
},
"p_final": 0.3878,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2002,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0343,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2064,
"best_odd": 1.47,
"edge": -0.0229,
"ev": -0.1093,
"implied_prob": 0.6288,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6059
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2243,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 22.4,
"text": "+22.4%"
},
"ev_under": -0.2126,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -21.3,
"text": "-21.3%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.2243,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10351.87,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1941,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.0,
"edge": 0.0178,
"edge_pp": 1.8,
"market_prob": 0.4536,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2135,
"best_odd": 1.66,
"edge": -0.0195,
"ev": -0.1253,
"implied_prob": 0.5464,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5269
},
"p_final": 0.4713,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.09,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0574,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1941,
"best_odd": 2.0,
"edge": 0.0178,
"ev": -0.0574,
"implied_prob": 0.4536,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4713
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2265,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -22.7,
"text": "-22.7%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.1173,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 11.7,
"text": "+11.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1173,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10105.57,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Sestao River, but the model still strongly favours Gernika.",
"consensus_odds": 2.58,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0767,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.7,
"text": "-7.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3554,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0633,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -6.3,
"text": "-6.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.6,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0689,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-6.9%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Gernika",
"sort_key": 1784.175,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -16.1%",
"alert_team": "Sestao River",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 2.2,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -2.19,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 35.5,
"market_team": "Gernika",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "Gernika",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 70,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.2,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Sestao River, but the model still strongly favours Gernika."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.2,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Sestao River, but the model still strongly favours Gernika."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2243,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2243,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Gernika at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Gernika as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Sestao River, but the model still strongly favours Gernika.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Gernika",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +22.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +22.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +22.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+22.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Sestao River, but the model still strongly favours Gernika.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Sestao River, but the model still strongly favours Gernika.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0767,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.58,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3554,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.38759689922480617,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0689,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-6.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "5/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.625,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.2,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 77,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 2.19,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 2.19,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.28,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.32,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.32 \u00b7 Away xG 1.28 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -16.1,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -16.1%",
"steam_team": "Sestao River",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Sestao River, but the model still strongly favours Gernika.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.2,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Sestao River, but the model still strongly favours Gernika."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.2,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Sestao River, but the model still strongly favours Gernika."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2243,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2243,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Gernika at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Gernika as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Sestao River, but the model still strongly favours Gernika.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Gernika",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +22.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +22.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +22.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+22.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Sestao River, but the model still strongly favours Gernika.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Sestao River, but the model still strongly favours Gernika.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0767,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.58,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3554,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.38759689922480617,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0689,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-6.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Sestao River, but the model still strongly favours Gernika.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Gernika 1.32 xG vs Sestao River 1.28 \u2192 Gernika 36.1%",
"Market: Gernika ~35.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Sestao River \u2193 -16.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Gernika, but sharp money moved toward Sestao River.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 0.57,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Gernika",
"market_prob": 35.54,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.19,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 31.84,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.61,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Sestao River",
"market_prob": 32.63,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.79,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 37.41,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.79,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 62.59,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.21,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 45.29,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.21,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 54.71,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -2.19,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 31.84,
"status": "market_efficient",
"steam_team_name": "Sestao River"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "market_efficient",
"max_gap_pp": 2.19,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Gernika",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 35.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+0.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 0.6,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+0.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 0.6,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 77,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Sestao River, but the model still strongly favours Gernika. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Gernika 1.32 xG vs Sestao River 1.28 \u2192 Gernika 36.1%",
"Market: Gernika ~35.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Sestao River \u2193 -16.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Gernika, but sharp money moved toward Sestao River.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -2.19,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "Sestao River odds shortened \u2193 -16.1%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Sestao River, with odds shortening by 16.1%.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Buying interest on Sestao River \u2014 odds shortened by 16.1%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Sestao River, with odds shortening by 16.1%.",
"Buying interest on Sestao River \u2014 odds shortened by 16.1%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Sestao River has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 16.1%."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 2.19,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": -2.2,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.2,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 0.57,
"edge_pp": 0.57,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Gernika",
"market_prob_pct": 35.54,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.19,
"edge_pp": -2.19,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 31.84,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.61,
"edge_pp": 1.61,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Sestao River",
"market_prob_pct": 32.63,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_efficient",
"status_label": "Market Efficient",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Sestao River \u2014 odds shortened by 16.1%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Gernika (35.5%).",
"However, Sestao River has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -16.1%, 5/8).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Gernika, Market \u2192 Gernika, Recent sharp money \u2192 Sestao River.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 34.72,
"closing_odds": 2.88,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 34.72,
"entry_odds": 2.88,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -16.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -16.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -15.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -15.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -12.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -12.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -9.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.7
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "5/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.6,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -16.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 16.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 75h 45m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on Sestao River (16.1%, 5/8) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -16.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.10",
"2.85",
"2.60"
],
"display": "3.16 \u2192 2.50 \u2192 2.60",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 75h 45m",
"pick_team": "Sestao River",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.16"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.50"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.60"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.1,
2.81,
2.6
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,10.4 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.60"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.60"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.1,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Sestao River \u2193 -16.1% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Sestao River",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Sestao River \u2193 -16.1% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.6,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -16.1%",
"open_odds": 3.1,
"summary": "Market moved toward Sestao River while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Sestao River",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 70,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/8",
"current_odds": 2.6,
"move_display": "\u2193 -16.1%",
"open_odds": 3.1,
"pick_team": "Sestao River",
"steam_score": 70,
"steam_team_name": "Sestao River",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 2.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "sestao-river",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Sestao River",
"away_team_id": 9413,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/9413.webp",
"away_team_name": "Sestao River",
"away_team_public_id": "5IYeMSRkr80XKD",
"away_team_slug": "sestao-river",
"country_code": "ES",
"country_display_name": "Spain",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
"country_id": 145,
"country_name": "Spain",
"fixture_id": 1572070,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Spain",
"home_team_display_name": "Gernika",
"home_team_id": 5263,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/5263.webp",
"home_team_name": "Gernika",
"home_team_public_id": "5pWIwwM4dGbUR7",
"home_team_slug": "gernika",
"ht.home_team_slug": "gernika",
"league_country": "Spain",
"league_country_display": "Spain",
"league_display_name": "Segunda Divisi\u00f3n RFEF - Nh\u00f3m 1",
"league_id": 875,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/875.webp",
"league_name": "Segunda Divisi\u00f3n RFEF - Nh\u00f3m 1",
"league_public_id": "2MK1lOWXhKWZpA",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-04 15:00:00",
"public_id": "2WRsK2EhfjjmKd",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4391,
"best_odd": 2.81,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0071,
"ev": -0.0633,
"implied_prob": 0.3263,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3263,
"draw": 0.3184,
"home": 0.3554
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.3334
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4354,
"best_odd": 2.88,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0094,
"ev": -0.1103,
"implied_prob": 0.3184,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3263,
"draw": 0.3184,
"home": 0.3554
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.3089
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4462,
"best_odd": 2.58,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0025,
"ev": -0.0767,
"implied_prob": 0.3554,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3263,
"draw": 0.3184,
"home": 0.3554
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.3579
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.81,
"edge": -0.0135,
"ev": -0.0379,
"implied_prob": 0.3559,
"model_prob": 0.3424
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.88,
"edge": -0.0505,
"ev": -0.1456,
"implied_prob": 0.3472,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.58,
"edge": -0.0267,
"ev": -0.0688,
"implied_prob": 0.3876,
"model_prob": 0.3609
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2135,
"alpha_yes": 0.1941,
"best_no_odd": 1.7,
"best_yes_odd": 2.05,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0921,
"edge_yes": 0.0921,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2265,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1253,
"ev_yes": 0.1173,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0574,
"implied_no": 0.5471,
"implied_yes": 0.4529,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2135,
"best_odd": 1.66,
"edge": -0.0195,
"ev": -0.1253,
"implied_prob": 0.5464,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5269
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1941,
"best_odd": 2.0,
"edge": 0.0178,
"ev": -0.0574,
"implied_prob": 0.4536,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4713
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.5269,
"p_final_yes": 0.4713,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1501,
"alpha_under": 0.2064,
"best_over_odd": 2.54,
"best_under_odd": 1.52,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.49,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.47,
"edge_over": 0.1079,
"edge_under": -0.1079,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2243,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0343,
"ev_under": -0.2126,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1093,
"implied_over": 0.3741,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3712,
"implied_under": 0.6259,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6288,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1501,
"best_odd": 2.49,
"edge": 0.0166,
"ev": -0.0343,
"implied_prob": 0.3712,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3878
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2064,
"best_odd": 1.47,
"edge": -0.0229,
"ev": -0.1093,
"implied_prob": 0.6288,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6059
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3878,
"p_final_under": 0.6059,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2243,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2243,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2243,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.6
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.2,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Sestao River, but the model still strongly favours Gernika."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2243,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2243,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Gernika at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Gernika as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Sestao River, but the model still strongly favours Gernika.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Gernika",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +22.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +22.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +22.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+22.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Sestao River, but the model still strongly favours Gernika.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Sestao River, but the model still strongly favours Gernika.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0767,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.58,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3554,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.38759689922480617,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0689,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-6.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.58,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0025,
"ev": -0.0767,
"implied_prob": 0.3554,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Gernika"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1941,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.0,
"edge": 0.0178,
"market_prob": 0.4536,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2135,
"best_odd": 1.66,
"edge": -0.0195,
"ev": -0.1253,
"implied_prob": 0.5464,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5269
},
"p_final": 0.4713,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0574,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1941,
"best_odd": 2.0,
"edge": 0.0178,
"ev": -0.0574,
"implied_prob": 0.4536,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4713
}
},
"edge": 0.0921,
"ev": 0.1173,
"implied_prob": 0.4529,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1501,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.49,
"edge": 0.0166,
"market_prob": 0.3712,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1501,
"best_odd": 2.49,
"edge": 0.0166,
"ev": -0.0343,
"implied_prob": 0.3712,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3878
},
"p_final": 0.3878,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0343,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2064,
"best_odd": 1.47,
"edge": -0.0229,
"ev": -0.1093,
"implied_prob": 0.6288,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6059
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1079,
"ev": 0.2243,
"implied_prob": 0.3741,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1572070,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2243,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3424,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3609
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1173,
"implied_prob": 0.4529,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1173,
"implied_prob": 0.4529,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Sestao River",
"home": "Gernika"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.075679,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2243,
"implied_prob": 0.3741,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0767,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.58,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3554,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.38759689922480617,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0689,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-6.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1572070,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-04T15:00:28.700971+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Gernika & Sestao River!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Segunda División RFEF - Nhóm 1 — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eibar II | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 2 | Deportivo Alavés II | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 3 | Bergantiños | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 4 | Sestao River | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 5 | Ourense CF | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 6 | Gernika | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 7 | Basconia | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 8 | Amorebieta | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 9 | Portugalete | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 10 | Marino de Luanco | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 11 | Coruxo | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 12 | Compostela | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 13 | Real Oviedo B | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 14 | Gimnástica Torrelavega | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 15 | Llanera | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 16 | Atlético Astorga | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 17 | Arosa | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 18 | Racing Santander II | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Alavés II | 5 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 12 |
| 2 | Gernika | 4 | 11 | 3 | +8 | 8 |
| 3 | Eibar II | 5 | 10 | 3 | +7 | 12 |
| 4 | Bergantiños | 4 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 10 |
| 5 | Basconia | 5 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 8 |
| 6 | Marino de Luanco | 5 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 6 |
| 7 | Real Oviedo B | 4 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 4 |
| 8 | Gimnástica Torrelavega | 5 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 4 |
| 9 | Arosa | 4 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 2 |
| 10 | Sestao River | 4 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 9 |
| 11 | Ourense CF | 4 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 9 |
| 12 | Amorebieta | 5 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 13 | Coruxo | 4 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 5 |
| 14 | Portugalete | 5 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 7 |
| 15 | Atlético Astorga | 5 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3 |
| 16 | Llanera | 5 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 4 |
| 17 | Racing Santander II | 5 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 1 |
| 18 | Compostela | 4 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 4 |
