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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (2 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Marino de Luanco Ourense CF ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.85
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Ourense CF win · Marino de Luanco 0–2 Ourense CF
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "97fc9f4cde32b3056a2aacd34be77eddf74d4ae8a312cad3f03443e6a7c901a5",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.24,
"away_win_prob": 0.3239,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.456,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.09,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.63,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.36,
"home_win_prob": 0.3801,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Marino de Luanco or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Marino de Luanco"
},
"away_xg": 1.24,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Marino de Luanco",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0586,
"edge_gap": 0.0566,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3218,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 32.4,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 38.0
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.85
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.85,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Marino de Luanco Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 3.11,
"market_odds": 2.85,
"model_odds": 2.63,
"overround": 9.0,
"prob_edge": 2.9,
"value_pct": 8.4,
"value_rating": "small_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 1,
"away_score_rate": 71.1,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 1,
"home_score_rate": 74.3,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.24,
"home_expected": 1.36,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.8
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Marino de Luanco or Draw",
"prob": 67.6
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Marino de Luanco or Ourense CF",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Ourense CF",
"prob": 62.0
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Marino de Luanco or Ourense CF",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 32.4,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 38.0,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Marino de Luanco"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 2.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 3.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 8.4,
"implied_prob": 35.1,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Marino de Luanco Win",
"model_prob": 38.0,
"odds": 2.85
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Ourense CF",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 34.48,
"draw": 33.35,
"home": 32.18
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-13 14:59:34",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-13 14:33:18",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Marino de Luanco",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 32.18,
"gap_pp": 5.86,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 38.03
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 33.35,
"gap_pp": -3.75,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.59
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 34.48,
"gap_pp": -2.1,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 32.37
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 36.23,
"gap_pp": 11.97,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 63.77,
"gap_pp": -11.97,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.85,
"early": 2.85,
"implied_closing_pct": 32.18,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 32.18,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 2.75,
"early": 2.75,
"implied_closing_pct": 33.35,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 33.35,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.66,
"early": 2.66,
"implied_closing_pct": 34.48,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 34.48,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.57,
"early": 2.57,
"implied_closing_pct": 36.23,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 36.23,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.46,
"early": 1.46,
"implied_closing_pct": 63.77,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 63.77,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 12.0,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.8,
"ev": -0.125,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.0,
"market_prob": 0.1429,
"market_prob_pct": 14.3,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.1
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.8
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.36,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1525,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0155,
"edge_pp": 1.6,
"market_prob": 0.3802,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1525,
"best_odd": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0155,
"ev": -0.0582,
"implied_prob": 0.3802,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3957
},
"p_final": 0.3957,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1472,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0582,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2097,
"best_odd": 1.46,
"edge": -0.0213,
"ev": -0.1263,
"implied_prob": 0.6198,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5984
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2387,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 23.9,
"text": "+23.9%"
},
"ev_under": -0.2075,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -20.8,
"text": "-20.8%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.2387,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10364.83,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1965,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.975,
"edge": 0.0166,
"edge_pp": 1.7,
"market_prob": 0.4596,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2162,
"best_odd": 1.68,
"edge": -0.0182,
"ev": -0.1228,
"implied_prob": 0.5404,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5221
},
"p_final": 0.4762,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0744,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0595,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1965,
"best_odd": 1.975,
"edge": 0.0166,
"ev": -0.0595,
"implied_prob": 0.4596,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4762
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2111,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -21.1,
"text": "-21.1%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.088,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 8.8,
"text": "+8.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.088,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"sort_key": 10079.2,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has repriced Marino de Luanco, but the model still strongly favours Marino de Luanco.",
"consensus_odds": 2.85,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0144,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.4,
"text": "-1.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3218,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0144,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.4,
"text": "-1.4%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0839,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+8.4%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Marino de Luanco",
"sort_key": 1796.4,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 5.8,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.83,
"hero_label": "Marino de Luanco",
"market_prob_pct": 32.2,
"market_team": "Ourense CF",
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"model_team": "Marino de Luanco",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.9,
"summary": "The market has repriced Marino de Luanco, but the model still strongly favours Marino de Luanco."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.9,
"summary": "The market has repriced Marino de Luanco, but the model still strongly favours Marino de Luanco."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2387,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2387,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 37,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Marino de Luanco at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Marino de Luanco as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Marino de Luanco, but the model still strongly favours Marino de Luanco.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Marino de Luanco",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +23.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +23.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +23.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "37 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+23.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Marino de Luanco, but the model still strongly favours Marino de Luanco.",
"Decision strength: 3.9/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Marino de Luanco, but the model still strongly favours Marino de Luanco.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0144,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.85,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3218,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3508771929824561,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0839,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+8.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "8/8",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 84,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.83,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.83,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.24,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.36,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.36,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.36 \u00b7 Away xG 1.24 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Marino de Luanco",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 24,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 24,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has repriced Marino de Luanco, but the model still strongly favours Marino de Luanco.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.9,
"summary": "The market has repriced Marino de Luanco, but the model still strongly favours Marino de Luanco."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.9,
"summary": "The market has repriced Marino de Luanco, but the model still strongly favours Marino de Luanco."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2387,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2387,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 37,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Marino de Luanco at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Marino de Luanco as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Marino de Luanco, but the model still strongly favours Marino de Luanco.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Marino de Luanco",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +23.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +23.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +23.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "37 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+23.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Marino de Luanco, but the model still strongly favours Marino de Luanco.",
"Decision strength: 3.9/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Marino de Luanco, but the model still strongly favours Marino de Luanco.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0144,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.85,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3218,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3508771929824561,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0839,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+8.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has repriced Marino de Luanco, but the model still strongly favours Marino de Luanco.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Marino de Luanco 1.36 xG vs Ourense CF 1.24 \u2192 Marino de Luanco 38.0%",
"Market: Ourense CF ~32.2% implied",
"Market Steam: Marino de Luanco +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Marino de Luanco with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 5.83,
"fair_prob": 38.01,
"label": "Marino de Luanco",
"market_prob": 32.18,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.76,
"fair_prob": 29.59,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 33.35,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.09,
"fair_prob": 32.39,
"label": "Ourense CF",
"market_prob": 34.48,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.98,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 38.22,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.98,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 61.78,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.27,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 46.13,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.27,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 53.87,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 5.83,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Marino de Luanco",
"market_prob_pct": 32.18,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Marino de Luanco"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Marino de Luanco\u0027s win probability at 38.0%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 32.2%, a difference of 5.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 5.83,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Marino de Luanco",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 32.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+5.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 5.8,
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+5.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 5.8,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 84,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "The market has repriced Marino de Luanco, but the model still strongly favours Marino de Luanco. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 24,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 24,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Marino de Luanco 1.36 xG vs Ourense CF 1.24 \u2192 Marino de Luanco 38.0%",
"Market: Ourense CF ~32.2% implied",
"Market Steam: Marino de Luanco +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Marino de Luanco with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.83,
"hero_label": "Marino de Luanco",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Marino de Luanco.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Marino de Luanco.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Marino de Luanco.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Marino de Luanco."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Marino de Luanco.",
"Recent line movement on Marino de Luanco (+0.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (8/8) supports the current market view on Marino de Luanco."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.83,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 5.6 pp (at 38.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 5.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Marino de Luanco",
"largest_gap_pp": 5.8,
"lead": "The model rates Marino de Luanco considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 5.8,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 5.83,
"edge_pp": 5.83,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Marino de Luanco",
"market_prob_pct": 32.18,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -3.76,
"edge_pp": -3.76,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 33.35,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.09,
"edge_pp": -2.09,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.39,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Ourense CF",
"market_prob_pct": 34.48,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Marino de Luanco.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Ourense CF (32.2%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Marino de Luanco, Market \u2192 Ourense CF, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 35.09,
"closing_odds": 2.85,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 35.09,
"entry_odds": 2.85,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/8",
"current_odds": 2.55,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.55,
"pick_team": "Marino de Luanco",
"steam_score": 32,
"steam_team_name": "Marino de Luanco",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "ourense-cf",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Ourense CF",
"away_team_id": 9612,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/9612.webp",
"away_team_name": "Ourense CF",
"away_team_public_id": "3hu3xEEf3tAVOq",
"away_team_slug": "ourense-cf",
"country_code": "ES",
"country_display_name": "Spain",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
"country_id": 145,
"country_name": "Spain",
"fixture_id": 1572045,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Spain",
"home_team_display_name": "Marino de Luanco",
"home_team_id": 9401,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/9401.webp",
"home_team_name": "Marino de Luanco",
"home_team_public_id": "0DtnRM2u0JkbTI",
"home_team_slug": "marino-de-luanco",
"ht.home_team_slug": "marino-de-luanco",
"league_country": "Spain",
"league_country_display": "Spain",
"league_display_name": "Segunda Divisi\u00f3n RFEF - Nh\u00f3m 1",
"league_id": 875,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/875.webp",
"league_name": "Segunda Divisi\u00f3n RFEF - Nh\u00f3m 1",
"league_public_id": "2MK1lOWXhKWZpA",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-13 15:00:00",
"public_id": "2uW4s7GixyyMLk",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4358,
"best_odd": 2.66,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0092,
"ev": -0.1073,
"implied_prob": 0.3448,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3448,
"draw": 0.3335,
"home": 0.3218
},
"model_prob": 0.3237,
"p_final": 0.3356
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4247,
"best_odd": 2.75,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0159,
"ev": -0.1268,
"implied_prob": 0.3335,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3448,
"draw": 0.3335,
"home": 0.3218
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.3175
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4105,
"best_odd": 2.85,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.024,
"ev": -0.0144,
"implied_prob": 0.3218,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3448,
"draw": 0.3335,
"home": 0.3218
},
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"p_final": 0.3458
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.66,
"edge": -0.0522,
"ev": -0.1389,
"implied_prob": 0.3759,
"model_prob": 0.3237
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.75,
"edge": -0.0677,
"ev": -0.1862,
"implied_prob": 0.3636,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.85,
"edge": 0.0295,
"ev": 0.084,
"implied_prob": 0.3509,
"model_prob": 0.3803
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2162,
"alpha_yes": 0.1965,
"best_no_odd": 1.73,
"best_yes_odd": 2.0,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0827,
"edge_yes": 0.0827,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2111,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1228,
"ev_yes": 0.088,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0595,
"implied_no": 0.5387,
"implied_yes": 0.4613,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2162,
"best_odd": 1.68,
"edge": -0.0182,
"ev": -0.1228,
"implied_prob": 0.5404,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5221
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1965,
"best_odd": 1.975,
"edge": 0.0166,
"ev": -0.0595,
"implied_prob": 0.4596,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4762
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.5221,
"p_final_yes": 0.4762,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1525,
"alpha_under": 0.2097,
"best_over_odd": 2.57,
"best_under_odd": 1.53,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.38,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.46,
"edge_over": 0.0998,
"edge_under": -0.0998,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2387,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0582,
"ev_under": -0.2075,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1263,
"implied_over": 0.3822,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3802,
"implied_under": 0.6178,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6198,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1525,
"best_odd": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0155,
"ev": -0.0582,
"implied_prob": 0.3802,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3957
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2097,
"best_odd": 1.46,
"edge": -0.0213,
"ev": -0.1263,
"implied_prob": 0.6198,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5984
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3957,
"p_final_under": 0.5984,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2387,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2387,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2387,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.9
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.9,
"summary": "The market has repriced Marino de Luanco, but the model still strongly favours Marino de Luanco."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2387,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2387,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 37,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Marino de Luanco at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Marino de Luanco as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Marino de Luanco, but the model still strongly favours Marino de Luanco.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Marino de Luanco",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +23.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +23.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +23.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "37 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+23.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Marino de Luanco, but the model still strongly favours Marino de Luanco.",
"Decision strength: 3.9/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Marino de Luanco, but the model still strongly favours Marino de Luanco.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0144,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.85,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3218,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3508771929824561,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0839,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+8.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3803,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.12
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.85,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.024,
"ev": -0.0144,
"implied_prob": 0.3218,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Marino de Luanco"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1965,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.975,
"edge": 0.0166,
"market_prob": 0.4596,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2162,
"best_odd": 1.68,
"edge": -0.0182,
"ev": -0.1228,
"implied_prob": 0.5404,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5221
},
"p_final": 0.4762,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0595,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1965,
"best_odd": 1.975,
"edge": 0.0166,
"ev": -0.0595,
"implied_prob": 0.4596,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4762
}
},
"edge": 0.0827,
"ev": 0.088,
"implied_prob": 0.4613,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1525,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0155,
"market_prob": 0.3802,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1525,
"best_odd": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0155,
"ev": -0.0582,
"implied_prob": 0.3802,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3957
},
"p_final": 0.3957,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0582,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2097,
"best_odd": 1.46,
"edge": -0.0213,
"ev": -0.1263,
"implied_prob": 0.6198,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5984
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0998,
"ev": 0.2387,
"implied_prob": 0.3822,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1572045,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2387,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3237,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3803
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.088,
"implied_prob": 0.4613,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.088,
"implied_prob": 0.4613,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Ourense CF",
"home": "Marino de Luanco"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.080537,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2387,
"implied_prob": 0.3822,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0144,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.85,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3218,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3508771929824561,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0839,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+8.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1572045,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-13T14:59:36.092422+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Marino de Luanco & Ourense CF!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Segunda División RFEF - Nhóm 1 — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sestao River | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 2 | Ourense CF | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | Gernika | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Bergantiños | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 5 | Portugalete | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 6 | Eibar II | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Deportivo Alavés II | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 8 | Coruxo | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | Basconia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Amorebieta | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 11 | Compostela | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | Atlético Astorga | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 13 | Marino de Luanco | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 14 | Real Oviedo B | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 15 | Gimnástica Torrelavega | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 16 | Arosa | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 17 | Racing Santander II | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 18 | Llanera | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gernika | 3 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 7 |
| 2 | Bergantiños | 3 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 7 |
| 3 | Basconia | 3 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Sestao River | 4 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 9 |
| 5 | Ourense CF | 4 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 9 |
| 6 | Deportivo Alavés II | 3 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 7 | Atlético Astorga | 4 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 3 |
| 8 | Eibar II | 3 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 6 |
| 9 | Coruxo | 3 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 4 |
| 10 | Amorebieta | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | Arosa | 3 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 2 |
| 12 | Portugalete | 3 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 7 |
| 13 | Marino de Luanco | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 |
| 14 | Real Oviedo B | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 3 |
| 15 | Compostela | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 16 | Gimnástica Torrelavega | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 3 |
| 17 | Llanera | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 0 |
| 18 | Racing Santander II | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 1 |
