Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (1 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Bergantiños Bergantiños ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.4
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Bergantiños win · Bergantiños 1–0 Amorebieta
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "d8ec1250fba6b163bb48f736c5d4c4e6293aa1d119db3f8c46a9e78131e505c7",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.23,
"away_win_prob": 0.3194,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.456,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2957,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.13,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.6,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.37,
"home_win_prob": 0.3849,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "No predictions available",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "33%",
"percent_draw": "33%",
"percent_home": "33%",
"winner_name": null
},
"away_xg": 1.23,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Berganti\u00f1os",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0455,
"edge_gap": 0.0651,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4301,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 32.0,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 38.5
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.13
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.13,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Berganti\u00f1os Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.32,
"market_odds": 2.13,
"model_odds": 2.6,
"overround": 9.1,
"prob_edge": -8.5,
"value_pct": -18.1,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 1,
"away_score_rate": 70.8,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 1,
"home_score_rate": 74.6,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.23,
"home_expected": 1.37,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.7
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Berganti\u00f1os or Draw",
"prob": 68.1
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Berganti\u00f1os or Amorebieta",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Amorebieta",
"prob": 61.5
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Berganti\u00f1os or Amorebieta",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 31.9,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 38.5,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Berganti\u00f1os"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 2.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 2.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 8.5,
"implied_prob": 29.4,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Amorebieta Win",
"model_prob": 31.9,
"odds": 3.4
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Amorebieta",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 26.95,
"draw": 30.04,
"home": 43.01
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-13 14:59:22",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-13 14:33:06",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Berganti\u00f1os",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 43.01,
"gap_pp": -4.55,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 38.46
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 30.04,
"gap_pp": -0.45,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.59
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.95,
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 31.95
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 42.97,
"gap_pp": 5.23,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 57.03,
"gap_pp": -5.23,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.13,
"early": 2.13,
"implied_closing_pct": 43.01,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 43.01,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.05,
"early": 3.05,
"implied_closing_pct": 30.04,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 30.04,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.4,
"early": 3.4,
"implied_closing_pct": 26.95,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 26.95,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.19,
"early": 2.19,
"implied_closing_pct": 42.97,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 42.97,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.65,
"early": 1.65,
"implied_closing_pct": 57.03,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 57.03,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 5.2,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.8,
"ev": -0.125,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.0,
"market_prob": 0.1429,
"market_prob_pct": 14.3,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.7
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.37,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2082,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.14,
"edge": 0.0103,
"edge_pp": 1.0,
"market_prob": 0.4324,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2082,
"best_odd": 2.14,
"edge": 0.0103,
"ev": -0.0526,
"implied_prob": 0.4324,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4427
},
"p_final": 0.4427,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0315,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0526,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2291,
"best_odd": 1.63,
"edge": -0.0114,
"ev": -0.0933,
"implied_prob": 0.5676,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5563
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0556,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 5.6,
"text": "+5.6%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1349,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -13.5,
"text": "-13.5%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0556,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10200.04,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2081,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.84,
"edge": 0.0104,
"edge_pp": 1.0,
"market_prob": 0.4938,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2289,
"best_odd": 1.795,
"edge": -0.0115,
"ev": -0.112,
"implied_prob": 0.5062,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4947
},
"p_final": 0.5043,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.001,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0722,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2081,
"best_odd": 1.84,
"edge": 0.0104,
"ev": -0.0722,
"implied_prob": 0.4938,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5043
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.161,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.1,
"text": "-16.1%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.0064,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.6,
"text": "+0.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0064,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"sort_key": 5205.12,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.1244,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -12.4,
"text": "-12.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4301,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0366,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.7,
"text": "-3.7%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1808,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.1%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Berganti\u00f1os",
"sort_key": 1790.85,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "2/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "2/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +9.1%",
"alert_team": "Amorebieta",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 5.0,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 4.99,
"hero_label": "Amorebieta",
"market_prob_pct": 43.0,
"market_team": "Berganti\u00f1os",
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"model_team": "Berganti\u00f1os",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 34,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Berganti\u00f1os)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Berganti\u00f1os)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0556,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0863,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 86,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Berganti\u00f1os at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Berganti\u00f1os as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Berganti\u00f1os",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Berganti\u00f1os \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.25 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +9% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1572041 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.25 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Berganti\u00f1os).",
"Decision strength: 5.8/10",
"Outlier price +9% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 82,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1244,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4301,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4694835680751174,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1808,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "2/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.25,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 2.5,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 82,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 4.99,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 4.99,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.23,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.37,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.37,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.37 \u00b7 Away xG 1.23 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.1,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +9.1%",
"steam_team": "Amorebieta",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 86,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 77,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 77,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Berganti\u00f1os).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Berganti\u00f1os)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Berganti\u00f1os)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0556,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0863,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 86,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Berganti\u00f1os at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Berganti\u00f1os as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Berganti\u00f1os",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Berganti\u00f1os \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.25 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +9% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1572041 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.25 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Berganti\u00f1os).",
"Decision strength: 5.8/10",
"Outlier price +9% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 82,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1244,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4301,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4694835680751174,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1808,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Berganti\u00f1os 1.37 xG vs Amorebieta 1.23 \u2192 Berganti\u00f1os 38.5%",
"Market: Berganti\u00f1os ~43.0% implied",
"Market Drift: Amorebieta odds \u2191 +9.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Berganti\u00f1os with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -4.52,
"fair_prob": 38.49,
"label": "Berganti\u00f1os",
"market_prob": 43.01,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.47,
"fair_prob": 29.57,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 30.04,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.99,
"fair_prob": 31.94,
"label": "Amorebieta",
"market_prob": 26.95,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.58,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 43.62,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.58,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 56.38,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.87,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 49.53,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.87,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 50.47,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 4.99,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.94,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Amorebieta",
"market_prob_pct": 26.95,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Amorebieta"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.99,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Berganti\u00f1os",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 43.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-4.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -4.5,
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-4.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -4.5,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 82,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Berganti\u00f1os \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 86,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 77,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 77,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Berganti\u00f1os 1.37 xG vs Amorebieta 1.23 \u2192 Berganti\u00f1os 38.5%",
"Market: Berganti\u00f1os ~43.0% implied",
"Market Drift: Amorebieta odds \u2191 +9.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Berganti\u00f1os with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 4.99,
"hero_label": "Amorebieta",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Amorebieta odds lengthened \u2191 +9.1%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "Confirmation remains limited (2/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Amorebieta.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"Confirmation remains limited (2/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Amorebieta."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"Recent line movement on Amorebieta (\u2191 +9.1%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (2/8), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 4.99,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 6.6 pp (at 38.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 6.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Amorebieta",
"largest_gap_pp": 5.0,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 5.0,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -4.52,
"edge_pp": -4.52,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.49,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Berganti\u00f1os",
"market_prob_pct": 43.01,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.47,
"edge_pp": -0.47,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.57,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 30.04,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.99,
"edge_pp": 4.99,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.94,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Amorebieta",
"market_prob_pct": 26.95,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Amorebieta.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Berganti\u00f1os (43.0%).",
"Amorebieta odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +9.1%, 2/8) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Berganti\u00f1os \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 29.41,
"closing_odds": 3.4,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 29.41,
"entry_odds": 3.4,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 2,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.1
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "2/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.0,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +9.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 9.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 53h 30m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Amorebieta (9.1%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.40",
"3.08",
"2.75"
],
"display": "3.40 \u2192 2.75 \u2192 3.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 53h 30m",
"pick_team": "Amorebieta",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.40"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.75"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.75,
3.4,
3.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,11.1",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.75"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.75"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.40"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.75,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Amorebieta",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.0,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +9.1%",
"open_odds": 2.75,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Amorebieta",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 34,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/8",
"current_odds": 3.0,
"move_display": "\u2191 +9.1%",
"open_odds": 2.75,
"pick_team": "Amorebieta",
"steam_score": 34,
"steam_team_name": "Amorebieta",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "amorebieta",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Amorebieta",
"away_team_id": 9380,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/9380.webp",
"away_team_name": "Amorebieta",
"away_team_public_id": "3WT9NjBZ5ldZxO",
"away_team_slug": "amorebieta",
"country_code": "ES",
"country_display_name": "Spain",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
"country_id": 145,
"country_name": "Spain",
"fixture_id": 1572041,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Spain",
"home_team_display_name": "Berganti\u00f1os",
"home_team_id": 9383,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/9383.webp",
"home_team_name": "Berganti\u00f1os",
"home_team_public_id": "0xf8RDtBWJqpX4",
"home_team_slug": "bergantinos",
"ht.home_team_slug": "bergantinos",
"league_country": "Spain",
"league_country_display": "Spain",
"league_display_name": "Segunda Divisi\u00f3n RFEF - Nh\u00f3m 1",
"league_id": 875,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/875.webp",
"league_name": "Segunda Divisi\u00f3n RFEF - Nh\u00f3m 1",
"league_public_id": "2MK1lOWXhKWZpA",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-13 15:00:00",
"public_id": "0eUir2WBSPyP3j",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2775,
"best_odd": 3.4,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0139,
"ev": -0.0366,
"implied_prob": 0.2695,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2695,
"draw": 0.3004,
"home": 0.4301
},
"model_prob": 0.3195,
"p_final": 0.2834
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.298,
"best_odd": 3.05,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0013,
"ev": -0.0879,
"implied_prob": 0.3004,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2695,
"draw": 0.3004,
"home": 0.4301
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.299
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4193,
"best_odd": 2.13,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0191,
"ev": -0.1244,
"implied_prob": 0.4301,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2695,
"draw": 0.3004,
"home": 0.4301
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"p_final": 0.4111
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.4,
"edge": 0.0254,
"ev": 0.0863,
"implied_prob": 0.2941,
"model_prob": 0.3195
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.05,
"edge": -0.032,
"ev": -0.0976,
"implied_prob": 0.3279,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.13,
"edge": -0.0849,
"ev": -0.1807,
"implied_prob": 0.4695,
"model_prob": 0.3846
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2289,
"alpha_yes": 0.2081,
"best_no_odd": 1.84,
"best_yes_odd": 1.85,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0487,
"edge_yes": 0.0487,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.161,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.112,
"ev_yes": 0.0064,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0722,
"implied_no": 0.5047,
"implied_yes": 0.4953,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2289,
"best_odd": 1.795,
"edge": -0.0115,
"ev": -0.112,
"implied_prob": 0.5062,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4947
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2081,
"best_odd": 1.84,
"edge": 0.0104,
"ev": -0.0722,
"implied_prob": 0.4938,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5043
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.4947,
"p_final_yes": 0.5043,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2082,
"alpha_under": 0.2291,
"best_over_odd": 2.19,
"best_under_odd": 1.67,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.14,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.63,
"edge_over": 0.0458,
"edge_under": -0.0458,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0556,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0526,
"ev_under": -0.1349,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0933,
"implied_over": 0.4362,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4324,
"implied_under": 0.5638,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5676,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2082,
"best_odd": 2.14,
"edge": 0.0103,
"ev": -0.0526,
"implied_prob": 0.4324,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4427
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2291,
"best_odd": 1.63,
"edge": -0.0114,
"ev": -0.0933,
"implied_prob": 0.5676,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5563
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4427,
"p_final_under": 0.5563,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0556,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0863,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0556,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.8
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Berganti\u00f1os)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0556,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0863,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 86,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Berganti\u00f1os at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Berganti\u00f1os as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Berganti\u00f1os",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Berganti\u00f1os \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.25 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +9% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1572041 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.25 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Berganti\u00f1os).",
"Decision strength: 5.8/10",
"Outlier price +9% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 82,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1244,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4301,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4694835680751174,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1808,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3846,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.14
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0191,
"ev": -0.1244,
"implied_prob": 0.4301,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Berganti\u00f1os"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2081,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.84,
"edge": 0.0104,
"market_prob": 0.4938,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2289,
"best_odd": 1.795,
"edge": -0.0115,
"ev": -0.112,
"implied_prob": 0.5062,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4947
},
"p_final": 0.5043,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0722,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2081,
"best_odd": 1.84,
"edge": 0.0104,
"ev": -0.0722,
"implied_prob": 0.4938,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5043
}
},
"edge": 0.0487,
"ev": 0.0064,
"implied_prob": 0.4953,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2082,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.14,
"edge": 0.0103,
"market_prob": 0.4324,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2082,
"best_odd": 2.14,
"edge": 0.0103,
"ev": -0.0526,
"implied_prob": 0.4324,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4427
},
"p_final": 0.4427,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0526,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2291,
"best_odd": 1.63,
"edge": -0.0114,
"ev": -0.0933,
"implied_prob": 0.5676,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5563
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0458,
"ev": 0.0556,
"implied_prob": 0.4362,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1572041,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0556,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3195,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3846
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Amorebieta",
"home": "Berganti\u00f1os"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.018759,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0556,
"implied_prob": 0.4362,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1244,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4301,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4694835680751174,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1808,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1572041,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-13T14:59:24.095691+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Bergantiños & Amorebieta!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Segunda División RFEF - Nhóm 1 — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sestao River | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 2 | Ourense CF | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | Gernika | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Bergantiños | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 5 | Portugalete | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 6 | Eibar II | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Deportivo Alavés II | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 8 | Coruxo | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | Basconia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Amorebieta | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 11 | Compostela | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | Atlético Astorga | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 13 | Marino de Luanco | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 14 | Real Oviedo B | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 15 | Gimnástica Torrelavega | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 16 | Arosa | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 17 | Racing Santander II | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 18 | Llanera | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gernika | 3 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 7 |
| 2 | Bergantiños | 3 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 7 |
| 3 | Basconia | 3 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Sestao River | 4 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 9 |
| 5 | Ourense CF | 4 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 9 |
| 6 | Deportivo Alavés II | 3 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 7 | Atlético Astorga | 4 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 3 |
| 8 | Eibar II | 3 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 6 |
| 9 | Coruxo | 3 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 4 |
| 10 | Amorebieta | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | Arosa | 3 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 2 |
| 12 | Portugalete | 3 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 7 |
| 13 | Marino de Luanco | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 |
| 14 | Real Oviedo B | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 3 |
| 15 | Compostela | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 16 | Gimnástica Torrelavega | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 3 |
| 17 | Llanera | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 0 |
| 18 | Racing Santander II | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 1 |
