Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (6 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Etar Veliko Tarnovo Chernomorets 1919 Burgas ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-4 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.83
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas win · Etar Veliko Tarnovo 2–4 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "b65a590246cb597a487d8f11f5d881f3beff83d69f1f649e37f756e2e829e645",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.29,
"away_win_prob": 0.347,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.546,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.88,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.81,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.31,
"home_win_prob": 0.3564,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Chernomorets 1919 Burgas",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Chernomorets 1919 Burgas"
},
"away_xg": 1.29,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Etar Veliko Tarnovo",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.1293,
"edge_gap": 0.0087,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4852,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 34.7,
"draw": 29.7,
"home": 35.6
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.83
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.83,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Etar Veliko Tarnovo Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.06,
"market_odds": 1.83,
"model_odds": 2.81,
"overround": 12.6,
"prob_edge": -19.1,
"value_pct": -34.9,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 4,
"away_failed_to_score": 2,
"away_played": 9,
"away_score_rate": 72.5,
"home_clean_sheet": 2,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 8,
"home_score_rate": 73.0,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.29,
"home_expected": 1.31,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.1
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Etar Veliko Tarnovo or Draw",
"prob": 65.2
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Etar Veliko Tarnovo or Chernomorets 1919 Burgas",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Chernomorets 1919 Burgas",
"prob": 64.3
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Etar Veliko Tarnovo or Chernomorets 1919 Burgas",
"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 34.7,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 35.6,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Etar Veliko Tarnovo"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.3,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.8,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 15.2,
"implied_prob": 30.1,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Chernomorets 1919 Burgas Win",
"model_prob": 34.7,
"odds": 3.32
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Chernomorets 1919 Burgas",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 26.75,
"draw": 24.73,
"home": 48.52
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 17:29:22",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 17:02:02",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Etar Veliko Tarnovo",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 48.52,
"gap_pp": -12.93,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 35.59
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.73,
"gap_pp": 4.94,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.68
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.75,
"gap_pp": 7.98,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 34.73
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 63.71,
"gap_pp": -15.51,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 36.29,
"gap_pp": 15.51,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.83,
"early": 1.83,
"implied_closing_pct": 48.52,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 48.52,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.59,
"early": 3.59,
"implied_closing_pct": 24.73,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 24.73,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.32,
"early": 3.32,
"implied_closing_pct": 26.75,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 26.75,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.43,
"early": 1.43,
"implied_closing_pct": 63.71,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 63.71,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.51,
"early": 2.51,
"implied_closing_pct": 36.29,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 36.29,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 15.5,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -0.7,
"ev": -0.055,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.5,
"market_prob": 0.1333,
"market_prob_pct": 13.3,
"model_prob": 0.126,
"model_prob_pct": 12.6,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.1
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.31,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.145,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.33,
"edge": 0.0188,
"edge_pp": 1.9,
"market_prob": 0.3885,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1994,
"best_odd": 1.48,
"edge": -0.0258,
"ev": -0.1331,
"implied_prob": 0.6115,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5857
},
"p_final": 0.4072,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2069,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0511,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.145,
"best_odd": 2.33,
"edge": 0.0188,
"ev": -0.0511,
"implied_prob": 0.3885,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4072
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1951,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -19.5,
"text": "-19.5%"
},
"ev_under": 0.3002,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 30.0,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.3002,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10420.18,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1577,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.445,
"edge": 0.013,
"edge_pp": 1.3,
"market_prob": 0.3723,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1577,
"best_odd": 2.445,
"edge": 0.013,
"ev": -0.0579,
"implied_prob": 0.3723,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3853
},
"p_final": 0.3853,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1125,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0579,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2168,
"best_odd": 1.45,
"edge": -0.0179,
"ev": -0.1158,
"implied_prob": 0.6277,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6098
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1603,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 16.0,
"text": "+16.0%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0735,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.3,
"text": "-7.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1603,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10144.27,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Chernomorets 1919 Burgas, but the model still strongly favours Etar Veliko Tarnovo.",
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.2265,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -22.7,
"text": "-22.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4852,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0421,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.2,
"text": "-4.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.9,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3487,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-34.9%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Etar Veliko Tarnovo",
"sort_key": 1789.475,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -28.6%",
"alert_team": "Chernomorets 1919 Burgas",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 12.9,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.88,
"hero_label": "Etar Veliko Tarnovo",
"market_prob_pct": 48.5,
"market_team": "Etar Veliko Tarnovo",
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"model_team": "Etar Veliko Tarnovo",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 96,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.9,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Chernomorets 1919 Burgas, but the model still strongly favours Etar Veliko Tarnovo."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.9,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Chernomorets 1919 Burgas, but the model still strongly favours Etar Veliko Tarnovo."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3002,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3002,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Etar Veliko Tarnovo at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 48.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Etar Veliko Tarnovo as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Chernomorets 1919 Burgas, but the model still strongly favours Etar Veliko Tarnovo.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Etar Veliko Tarnovo",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +30.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +30.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +30.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+30.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Chernomorets 1919 Burgas, but the model still strongly favours Etar Veliko Tarnovo.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Chernomorets 1919 Burgas, but the model still strongly favours Etar Veliko Tarnovo.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2265,
"consensus_ev_display": "-22.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4852,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5464480874316939,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3487,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-34.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "8/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8888888888888888,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (13 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.9,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 58,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 12.88,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 12.88,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.29,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.31,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.31,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.31 \u00b7 Away xG 1.29 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -28.6,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -28.6%",
"steam_team": "Chernomorets 1919 Burgas",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 12,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 12,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Chernomorets 1919 Burgas, but the model still strongly favours Etar Veliko Tarnovo.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.9,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Chernomorets 1919 Burgas, but the model still strongly favours Etar Veliko Tarnovo."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.9,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Chernomorets 1919 Burgas, but the model still strongly favours Etar Veliko Tarnovo."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3002,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3002,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Etar Veliko Tarnovo at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 48.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Etar Veliko Tarnovo as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Chernomorets 1919 Burgas, but the model still strongly favours Etar Veliko Tarnovo.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Etar Veliko Tarnovo",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +30.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +30.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +30.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+30.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Chernomorets 1919 Burgas, but the model still strongly favours Etar Veliko Tarnovo.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Chernomorets 1919 Burgas, but the model still strongly favours Etar Veliko Tarnovo.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2265,
"consensus_ev_display": "-22.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4852,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5464480874316939,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3487,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-34.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Chernomorets 1919 Burgas, but the model still strongly favours Etar Veliko Tarnovo.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Etar Veliko Tarnovo 1.31 xG vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1.29 \u2192 Etar Veliko Tarnovo 35.6%",
"Market: Etar Veliko Tarnovo ~48.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Chernomorets 1919 Burgas \u2193 -28.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Etar Veliko Tarnovo, but sharp money moved toward Chernomorets 1919 Burgas.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -12.88,
"fair_prob": 35.64,
"label": "Etar Veliko Tarnovo",
"market_prob": 48.52,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.92,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.73,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.95,
"fair_prob": 34.7,
"label": "Chernomorets 1919 Burgas",
"market_prob": 26.75,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.16,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 60.36,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.16,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 39.64,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.95,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 61.45,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.95,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 38.55,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -12.88,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Etar Veliko Tarnovo",
"market_prob_pct": 48.52,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Chernomorets 1919 Burgas"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Etar Veliko Tarnovo\u0027s win probability at 48.5%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 35.6%, a difference of 12.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 12.88,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Etar Veliko Tarnovo",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 48.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-12.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -12.9,
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-12.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -12.9,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 58,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Chernomorets 1919 Burgas, but the model still strongly favours Etar Veliko Tarnovo. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 12,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 12,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Etar Veliko Tarnovo 1.31 xG vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1.29 \u2192 Etar Veliko Tarnovo 35.6%",
"Market: Etar Veliko Tarnovo ~48.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Chernomorets 1919 Burgas \u2193 -28.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Etar Veliko Tarnovo, but sharp money moved toward Chernomorets 1919 Burgas.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.88,
"hero_label": "Etar Veliko Tarnovo",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Chernomorets 1919 Burgas odds shortened \u2193 -28.6%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Chernomorets 1919 Burgas, with odds shortening by 28.6%.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Etar Veliko Tarnovo than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Buying interest on Chernomorets 1919 Burgas \u2014 odds shortened by 28.6%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Etar Veliko Tarnovo than the current fair estimate.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Chernomorets 1919 Burgas, with odds shortening by 28.6%.",
"Buying interest on Chernomorets 1919 Burgas \u2014 odds shortened by 28.6%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Etar Veliko Tarnovo more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Chernomorets 1919 Burgas has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 28.6%.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (8/9) supports the current market view on Chernomorets 1919 Burgas."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 12.88,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.9,
"max_prob_pct": 35.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Etar Veliko Tarnovo",
"largest_gap_pp": -12.9,
"lead": "The closing market prices Etar Veliko Tarnovo higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 12.9,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -12.88,
"edge_pp": -12.88,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Etar Veliko Tarnovo",
"market_prob_pct": 48.52,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.92,
"edge_pp": 4.92,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.73,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 7.95,
"edge_pp": 7.95,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Chernomorets 1919 Burgas",
"market_prob_pct": 26.75,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Chernomorets 1919 Burgas \u2014 odds shortened by 28.6%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Etar Veliko Tarnovo (48.5%).",
"However, Chernomorets 1919 Burgas has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -28.6%, 8/9).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Etar Veliko Tarnovo, Market \u2192 Etar Veliko Tarnovo, Recent sharp money \u2192 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 54.64,
"closing_odds": 1.83,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 54.64,
"entry_odds": 1.83,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -28.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -28.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -27.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -27.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -24.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -24.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -24.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -24.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -20.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -20.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -6.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.2
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.0,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -28.6%",
"move_pct_abs": 28.6,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 135h 18m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"8/9 books synchronized on Chernomorets 1919 Burgas (28.6% steam, score 96) \u2014 high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.",
"Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -28.6,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.20",
"3.60",
"3.00"
],
"display": "4.60 \u2192 3.00 \u2192 3.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 135h 18m",
"pick_team": "Chernomorets 1919 Burgas",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.60"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.2,
3.32,
3.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,13.2 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.20"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.20"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.2,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Chernomorets 1919 Burgas \u2193 -28.6% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Chernomorets 1919 Burgas",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Chernomorets 1919 Burgas \u2193 -28.6% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "steam",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udd25",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.0,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -28.6%",
"open_odds": 4.2,
"summary": "Market moved toward Chernomorets 1919 Burgas while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Chernomorets 1919 Burgas",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "strong_steam",
"signal_label": "Strong steam",
"steam_score": 96,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"current_odds": 3.0,
"move_display": "\u2193 -28.6%",
"open_odds": 4.2,
"pick_team": "Chernomorets 1919 Burgas",
"steam_score": 96,
"steam_team_name": "Chernomorets 1919 Burgas",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 12.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "chernomorets-1919-burgas",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Chernomorets 1919 Burgas",
"away_team_id": 8530,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/8530.webp",
"away_team_name": "Chernomorets 1919 Burgas",
"away_team_public_id": "0tmwBMqlsuINUq",
"away_team_slug": "chernomorets-1919-burgas",
"country_code": "BG",
"country_display_name": "Bulgaria",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/bg.svg",
"country_id": 25,
"country_name": "Bulgaria",
"fixture_id": 1571566,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Bulgaria",
"home_team_display_name": "Etar Veliko Tarnovo",
"home_team_id": 855,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/855.webp",
"home_team_name": "Etar Veliko Tarnovo",
"home_team_public_id": "5U8cyLGSfOiG8c",
"home_team_slug": "etar-veliko-tarnovo",
"ht.home_team_slug": "etar-veliko-tarnovo",
"league_country": "Bulgaria",
"league_country_display": "Bulgaria",
"league_display_name": "Gi\u1ea3i H\u1ea1ng Nh\u00ec Bulgaria",
"league_id": 173,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/173.webp",
"league_name": "Gi\u1ea3i H\u1ea1ng Nh\u00ec Bulgaria",
"league_public_id": "1iWu3HXy1qf6Ut",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-20 17:30:00",
"public_id": "2ppGdDMAfmKZ4p",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Veliko Tarnovo",
"venue_name": "Ivajlo Stadion"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2641,
"best_odd": 3.32,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0211,
"ev": -0.0421,
"implied_prob": 0.2675,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2675,
"draw": 0.2473,
"home": 0.4852
},
"model_prob": 0.3473,
"p_final": 0.2885
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2777,
"best_odd": 3.59,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0137,
"ev": -0.0628,
"implied_prob": 0.2473,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2675,
"draw": 0.2473,
"home": 0.4852
},
"model_prob": 0.2968,
"p_final": 0.2611
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4836,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0625,
"ev": -0.2265,
"implied_prob": 0.4852,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2675,
"draw": 0.2473,
"home": 0.4852
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"p_final": 0.4227
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.32,
"edge": 0.0461,
"ev": 0.153,
"implied_prob": 0.3012,
"model_prob": 0.3473
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.59,
"edge": 0.0182,
"ev": 0.0655,
"implied_prob": 0.2786,
"model_prob": 0.2968
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": -0.1905,
"ev": -0.3486,
"implied_prob": 0.5464,
"model_prob": 0.3559
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1577,
"alpha_yes": 0.2168,
"best_no_odd": 2.55,
"best_yes_odd": 1.7,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0695,
"edge_yes": -0.0695,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1603,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0579,
"ev_yes": -0.0735,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1158,
"implied_no": 0.3855,
"implied_yes": 0.6145,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1577,
"best_odd": 2.445,
"edge": 0.013,
"ev": -0.0579,
"implied_prob": 0.3723,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3853
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2168,
"best_odd": 1.45,
"edge": -0.0179,
"ev": -0.1158,
"implied_prob": 0.6277,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6098
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.3853,
"p_final_yes": 0.6098,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1994,
"alpha_under": 0.145,
"best_over_odd": 1.67,
"best_under_odd": 2.51,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.48,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.33,
"edge_over": -0.1216,
"edge_under": 0.1216,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1951,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1331,
"ev_under": 0.3002,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0511,
"implied_over": 0.6036,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6115,
"implied_under": 0.3964,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3885,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1994,
"best_odd": 1.48,
"edge": -0.0258,
"ev": -0.1331,
"implied_prob": 0.6115,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5857
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.145,
"best_odd": 2.33,
"edge": 0.0188,
"ev": -0.0511,
"implied_prob": 0.3885,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4072
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5857,
"p_final_under": 0.4072,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3002,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3002,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3002,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.9
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.9,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Chernomorets 1919 Burgas, but the model still strongly favours Etar Veliko Tarnovo."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3002,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3002,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Etar Veliko Tarnovo at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 48.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Etar Veliko Tarnovo as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Chernomorets 1919 Burgas, but the model still strongly favours Etar Veliko Tarnovo.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Etar Veliko Tarnovo",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +30.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +30.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +30.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+30.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Chernomorets 1919 Burgas, but the model still strongly favours Etar Veliko Tarnovo.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Chernomorets 1919 Burgas, but the model still strongly favours Etar Veliko Tarnovo.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2265,
"consensus_ev_display": "-22.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4852,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5464480874316939,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3487,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-34.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2968,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3559,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.02
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0625,
"ev": -0.2265,
"implied_prob": 0.4852,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Etar Veliko Tarnovo"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1577,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.445,
"edge": 0.013,
"market_prob": 0.3723,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1577,
"best_odd": 2.445,
"edge": 0.013,
"ev": -0.0579,
"implied_prob": 0.3723,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3853
},
"p_final": 0.3853,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0579,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2168,
"best_odd": 1.45,
"edge": -0.0179,
"ev": -0.1158,
"implied_prob": 0.6277,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6098
}
},
"edge": 0.0695,
"ev": 0.1603,
"implied_prob": 0.3855,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.145,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.33,
"edge": 0.0188,
"market_prob": 0.3885,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1994,
"best_odd": 1.48,
"edge": -0.0258,
"ev": -0.1331,
"implied_prob": 0.6115,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5857
},
"p_final": 0.4072,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0511,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.145,
"best_odd": 2.33,
"edge": 0.0188,
"ev": -0.0511,
"implied_prob": 0.3885,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4072
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1216,
"ev": 0.3002,
"implied_prob": 0.3964,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1571566,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3002,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3473,
"draw": 0.2968,
"home": 0.3559
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1603,
"implied_prob": 0.3855,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1603,
"implied_prob": 0.3855,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Chernomorets 1919 Burgas",
"home": "Etar Veliko Tarnovo"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.108853,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3002,
"implied_prob": 0.3964,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2265,
"consensus_ev_display": "-22.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4852,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5464480874316939,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3487,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-34.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1571566,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T17:29:24.050253+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Etar Veliko Tarnovo & Chernomorets 1919 Burgas!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Giải Hạng Nhì Bulgaria — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vihren | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 24 |
| 2 | CSKA Sofia II | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 23 |
| 3 | Fratria | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 22 |
| 4 | Chernomorets 1919 Burgas | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 21 |
| 5 | Beroe | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 6 | Rilski Sportist | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 7 | Nesebar | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 8 | Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 16 |
| 9 | Yantra 2019 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 16 |
| 10 | Hebar 1918 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 11 | Etar Veliko Tarnovo | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 12 | Marek | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 13 | Spartak Pleven | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 13 |
| 14 | Ludogorets II | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 15 | Montana | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 11 |
| 16 | Sportist Svoge | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 10 |
| 17 | Dobrudzha | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 |
| 18 | Pirin Blagoevgrad | 11 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vihren | 11 | 25 | 11 | +14 | 24 |
| 2 | Hebar 1918 | 11 | 24 | 19 | +5 | 14 |
| 3 | CSKA Sofia II | 11 | 23 | 9 | +14 | 23 |
| 4 | Nesebar | 11 | 20 | 17 | +3 | 17 |
| 5 | Chernomorets 1919 Burgas | 11 | 18 | 8 | +10 | 21 |
| 6 | Fratria | 11 | 17 | 8 | +9 | 22 |
| 7 | Etar Veliko Tarnovo | 10 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 14 |
| 8 | Beroe | 11 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 18 |
| 9 | Rilski Sportist | 11 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 18 |
| 10 | Montana | 11 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 11 |
| 11 | Yantra 2019 | 11 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 16 |
| 12 | Dobrudzha | 11 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 9 |
| 13 | Marek | 11 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 14 |
| 14 | Spartak Pleven | 11 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 13 |
| 15 | Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa | 11 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 16 |
| 16 | Ludogorets II | 10 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 12 |
| 17 | Sportist Svoge | 11 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 10 |
| 18 | Pirin Blagoevgrad | 11 | 4 | 33 | -29 | 0 |
