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Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Sant Andreu Sant Andreu ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.01
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Sant Andreu win · Gimnàstic de Tarragona 1–2 Sant Andreu
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "cdf5353ab606884928564311e09a77028722178a758e37f6bf87a8034e3a101e",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.33,
"away_win_prob": 0.3659,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2964,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.73,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.96,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.27,
"home_win_prob": 0.3377,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Winner : Gimn\u00e0stic de Tarragona",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Gimn\u00e0stic de Tarragona"
},
"away_xg": 1.33,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Sant Andreu",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.1169,
"edge_gap": 0.0284,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.2491,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 36.6,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 33.8
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 3.68
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 3.68,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Sant Andreu Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 4.01,
"market_odds": 3.68,
"model_odds": 2.73,
"overround": 9.1,
"prob_edge": 9.5,
"value_pct": 34.8,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 1,
"away_failed_to_score": 2,
"away_played": 3,
"away_score_rate": 73.6,
"home_clean_sheet": 2,
"home_failed_to_score": 2,
"home_played": 4,
"home_score_rate": 71.9,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.33,
"home_expected": 1.27,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Gimn\u00e0stic de Tarragona or Draw",
"prob": 63.4
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Gimn\u00e0stic de Tarragona or Sant Andreu",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Sant Andreu",
"prob": 66.2
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Gimn\u00e0stic de Tarragona or Sant Andreu",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 36.6,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 33.8,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Sant Andreu"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.7,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 34.8,
"implied_prob": 27.2,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Sant Andreu Win",
"model_prob": 36.6,
"odds": 3.68
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Sant Andreu",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 24.91,
"draw": 29.48,
"home": 45.61
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 16:44:23",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 16:14:22",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Gimn\u00e0stic de Tarragona",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 45.61,
"gap_pp": -11.86,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 33.75
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 29.48,
"gap_pp": 0.17,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.65
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.91,
"gap_pp": 11.69,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 36.6
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 44.85,
"gap_pp": 3.35,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 55.15,
"gap_pp": -3.35,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.01,
"early": 2.01,
"implied_closing_pct": 45.61,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 45.61,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.11,
"early": 3.11,
"implied_closing_pct": 29.48,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 29.48,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.68,
"early": 3.68,
"implied_closing_pct": 24.91,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 24.91,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.09,
"early": 2.09,
"implied_closing_pct": 44.85,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 44.85,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.7,
"early": 1.7,
"implied_closing_pct": 55.15,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 55.15,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 11.7,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -2.9,
"ev": -0.1875,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.5,
"market_prob": 0.1538,
"market_prob_pct": 15.4,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.27,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2142,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0068,
"edge_pp": 0.7,
"market_prob": 0.4501,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2142,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0068,
"ev": -0.0678,
"implied_prob": 0.4501,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.457
},
"p_final": 0.457,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.2,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0167,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0678,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2357,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0075,
"ev": -0.0943,
"implied_prob": 0.5499,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5424
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0363,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.6,
"text": "+3.6%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1194,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -11.9,
"text": "-11.9%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0363,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10032.67,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "monitor",
"authority_note": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"consensus_odds": 3.68,
"decision": "small_edge",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0232,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.3,
"text": "+2.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2491,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0232,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.3,
"text": "+2.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+11.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3469,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+34.7%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Sant Andreu",
"sort_key": 5218.56,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2098,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0094,
"edge_pp": 0.9,
"market_prob": 0.5,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2098,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": -0.0094,
"ev": -0.1023,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4906
},
"p_final": 0.5094,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0026,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0677,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2098,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0094,
"ev": -0.0677,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5094
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1582,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.8,
"text": "-15.8%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.0028,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.3,
"text": "+0.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0028,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 5202.24,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -17.1%",
"alert_team": "Sant Andreu",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 11.8,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -11.84,
"hero_label": "Gimn\u00e0stic de Tarragona",
"market_prob_pct": 24.9,
"market_team": "Gimn\u00e0stic de Tarragona",
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"model_team": "Sant Andreu",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 88,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 11.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sant Andreu)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 11.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sant Andreu)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0363,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3468,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.5,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 55,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sant Andreu at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 24.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Sant Andreu as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Sant Andreu",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Sant Andreu \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.99 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +35% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1571141 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.99 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +3.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "69 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sant Andreu).",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +35% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 69,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0232,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.3%",
"consensus_odds": 3.68,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2491,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+11.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2717391304347826,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3469,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+34.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"bet_status": "monitor",
"books_breadth_display": "8/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8888888888888888,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (12 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.9,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 69,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 11.84,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 11.84,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.33,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.27,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.33,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.27 \u00b7 Away xG 1.33 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -17.1,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -17.1%",
"steam_team": "Sant Andreu",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 55,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "monitor",
"label": "Monitor - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 11.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sant Andreu)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 11.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sant Andreu)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0363,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3468,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.5,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 55,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sant Andreu at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 24.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Sant Andreu as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Sant Andreu",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Sant Andreu \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.99 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +35% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1571141 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.99 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +3.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "69 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sant Andreu).",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +35% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 69,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0232,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.3%",
"consensus_odds": 3.68,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2491,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+11.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2717391304347826,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3469,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+34.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"tier": "monitor"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Gimn\u00e0stic de Tarragona 1.27 xG vs Sant Andreu 1.33 \u2192 Sant Andreu 36.6%",
"Market: Gimn\u00e0stic de Tarragona ~24.9% implied",
"Market Steam: Sant Andreu \u2193 -17.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Sant Andreu with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -11.84,
"fair_prob": 33.77,
"label": "Gimn\u00e0stic de Tarragona",
"market_prob": 45.61,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.16,
"fair_prob": 29.64,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 29.48,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.68,
"fair_prob": 36.59,
"label": "Sant Andreu",
"market_prob": 24.91,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.29,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.91,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.29,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.09,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.27,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 50.23,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.27,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 49.77,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -11.84,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Gimn\u00e0stic de Tarragona",
"market_prob_pct": 45.61,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Sant Andreu"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Gimn\u00e0stic de Tarragona\u0027s win probability at 45.6%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 11.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 11.84,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Sant Andreu",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 24.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+11.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 11.7,
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+11.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 11.7,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 69,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Sant Andreu \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 55,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "monitor",
"label": "Monitor - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Gimn\u00e0stic de Tarragona 1.27 xG vs Sant Andreu 1.33 \u2192 Sant Andreu 36.6%",
"Market: Gimn\u00e0stic de Tarragona ~24.9% implied",
"Market Steam: Sant Andreu \u2193 -17.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Sant Andreu with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -11.84,
"hero_label": "Gimn\u00e0stic de Tarragona",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Sant Andreu odds shortened \u2193 -17.1%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Sant Andreu, with odds shortening by 17.1%.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Gimn\u00e0stic de Tarragona than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Buying interest on Sant Andreu \u2014 odds shortened by 17.1%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Gimn\u00e0stic de Tarragona than the current fair estimate.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Sant Andreu, with odds shortening by 17.1%.",
"Buying interest on Sant Andreu \u2014 odds shortened by 17.1%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Gimn\u00e0stic de Tarragona more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Sant Andreu has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 17.1%.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (8/9) supports the current market view on Sant Andreu."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 11.84,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.8,
"max_prob_pct": 36.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Gimn\u00e0stic de Tarragona",
"largest_gap_pp": -11.8,
"lead": "The closing market prices Gimn\u00e0stic de Tarragona higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 11.8,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -11.84,
"edge_pp": -11.84,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Gimn\u00e0stic de Tarragona",
"market_prob_pct": 45.61,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.16,
"edge_pp": 0.16,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 29.48,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 11.68,
"edge_pp": 11.68,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Sant Andreu",
"market_prob_pct": 24.91,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Sant Andreu \u2014 odds shortened by 17.1%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Gimn\u00e0stic de Tarragona (24.9%).",
"However, Sant Andreu has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -17.1%, 8/9).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Sant Andreu, Market \u2192 Gimn\u00e0stic de Tarragona, Recent sharp money \u2192 Sant Andreu.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 49.75,
"closing_odds": 2.01,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 49.75,
"entry_odds": 2.01,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -19.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -19.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -17.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -17.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -15.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -15.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -15.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -15.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -13.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -12.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -9.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.9
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.4,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -17.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 17.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 89h 4m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"8/9 books synchronized on Sant Andreu (17.1% steam, score 88) \u2014 high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.",
"Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -17.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.10",
"3.75",
"3.40"
],
"display": "4.33 \u2192 3.05 \u2192 3.40",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 89h 4m",
"pick_team": "Sant Andreu",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.33"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.05"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.40"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.1,
3.68,
3.4
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,10.8 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.10"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.40"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.10"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.40"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.1,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Sant Andreu \u2193 -17.1% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Sant Andreu",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Sant Andreu \u2193 -17.1% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "steam",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udd25",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.4,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -17.1%",
"open_odds": 4.1,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Sant Andreu",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "strong_steam",
"signal_label": "Strong steam",
"steam_score": 88,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"current_odds": 3.4,
"move_display": "\u2193 -17.1%",
"open_odds": 4.1,
"pick_team": "Sant Andreu",
"steam_score": 88,
"steam_team_name": "Sant Andreu",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 11.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "sant-andreu",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Sant Andreu",
"away_team_id": 5277,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/5277.webp",
"away_team_name": "Sant Andreu",
"away_team_public_id": "4N1REsICNnjOgW",
"away_team_slug": "sant-andreu",
"country_code": "ES",
"country_display_name": "Spain",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
"country_id": 145,
"country_name": "Spain",
"fixture_id": 1571141,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Spain",
"home_team_display_name": "Gimn\u00e0stic de Tarragona",
"home_team_id": 714,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/714.webp",
"home_team_name": "Gimn\u00e0stic de Tarragona",
"home_team_public_id": "5K34DwspYsvwvr",
"home_team_slug": "gimnastic",
"ht.home_team_slug": "gimnastic",
"league_country": "Spain",
"league_country_display": "Spain",
"league_display_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n RFEF - Nh\u00f3m 2",
"league_id": 436,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/436.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n RFEF - Nh\u00f3m 2",
"league_public_id": "504vZPezCkhYyG",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 16:45:00",
"public_id": "1LQ18q7cD4OOHn",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Tarragona",
"venue_name": "Nou Estadi de Tarragona"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2474,
"best_odd": 3.68,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0289,
"ev": 0.0232,
"implied_prob": 0.2491,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2491,
"draw": 0.2948,
"home": 0.4561
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"p_final": 0.278
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2992,
"best_odd": 3.11,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0005,
"ev": -0.0817,
"implied_prob": 0.2948,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2491,
"draw": 0.2948,
"home": 0.4561
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.2953
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.37,
"best_odd": 2.01,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0439,
"ev": -0.1714,
"implied_prob": 0.4561,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2491,
"draw": 0.2948,
"home": 0.4561
},
"model_prob": 0.3375,
"p_final": 0.4122
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.68,
"edge": 0.0942,
"ev": 0.3468,
"implied_prob": 0.2717,
"model_prob": 0.366
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.11,
"edge": -0.0251,
"ev": -0.078,
"implied_prob": 0.3215,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.01,
"edge": -0.16,
"ev": -0.3215,
"implied_prob": 0.4975,
"model_prob": 0.3375
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2098,
"alpha_yes": 0.2098,
"best_no_odd": 1.85,
"best_yes_odd": 1.84,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0427,
"edge_yes": 0.0427,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1582,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1023,
"ev_yes": 0.0028,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0677,
"implied_no": 0.4977,
"implied_yes": 0.5023,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2098,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": -0.0094,
"ev": -0.1023,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4906
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2098,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0094,
"ev": -0.0677,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5094
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.4906,
"p_final_yes": 0.5094,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2142,
"alpha_under": 0.2357,
"best_over_odd": 2.15,
"best_under_odd": 1.7,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.04,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.67,
"edge_over": 0.0329,
"edge_under": -0.0329,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0363,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0678,
"ev_under": -0.1194,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0943,
"implied_over": 0.4491,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4501,
"implied_under": 0.5509,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5499,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2142,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0068,
"ev": -0.0678,
"implied_prob": 0.4501,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.457
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2357,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0075,
"ev": -0.0943,
"implied_prob": 0.5499,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5424
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.457,
"p_final_under": 0.5424,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0363,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3468,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0363,
"confidence": 4.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 5.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 5.5
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "monitor",
"final_decision": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 11.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sant Andreu)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0363,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3468,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.5,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 55,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sant Andreu at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 24.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Sant Andreu as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Sant Andreu",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Sant Andreu \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.99 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +35% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1571141 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.99 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +3.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "69 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sant Andreu).",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +35% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 69,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0232,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.3%",
"consensus_odds": 3.68,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2491,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+11.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2717391304347826,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3469,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+34.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.366,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0363,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4491,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "over",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.68,
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0289,
"ev": 0.0232,
"implied_prob": 0.2491,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.366,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Sant Andreu"
},
"btts": {
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"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0094,
"market_prob": 0.5,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2098,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": -0.0094,
"ev": -0.1023,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4906
},
"p_final": 0.5094,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0677,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
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"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0094,
"ev": -0.0677,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
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}
},
"edge": 0.0427,
"ev": 0.0028,
"implied_prob": 0.5023,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0068,
"market_prob": 0.4501,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
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"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0068,
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},
"p_final": 0.457,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0678,
"under": {
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"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0075,
"ev": -0.0943,
"implied_prob": 0.5499,
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},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0329,
"ev": 0.0363,
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"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1571141,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0363,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.366,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.3375
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Sant Andreu",
"home": "Gimn\u00e0stic de Tarragona"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0232,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.3%",
"consensus_odds": 3.68,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2491,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+11.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2717391304347826,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3469,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+34.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1571141,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T16:44:24.955724+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Gimnàstic de Tarragona & Sant Andreu!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Primera División RFEF - Nhóm 2 — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Villarreal II | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 2 | Zaragoza | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 3 | Real Jaén | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 4 | Real Murcia | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 5 | Hércules | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 6 | Atlético Madrid II | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 7 | Gimnàstic de Tarragona | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | Sant Andreu | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 9 | Alcorcón | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 | Ibiza | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 11 | FC Cartagena | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 12 | Real Madrid II | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 13 | Antequera | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 14 | Águilas CF | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 15 | Huesca | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 16 | Rayo Majadahonda | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 17 | Algeciras | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 18 | Juventud Torremolinos | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| 19 | Europa FC | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 20 | Teruel | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Villarreal II | 5 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 13 |
| 2 | Atlético Madrid II | 5 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 8 |
| 3 | Real Jaén | 4 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 10 |
| 4 | Zaragoza | 5 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 12 |
| 5 | Real Murcia | 4 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 9 |
| 6 | Gimnàstic de Tarragona | 5 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| 7 | Ibiza | 5 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 6 |
| 8 | Algeciras | 5 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 4 |
| 9 | Alcorcón | 4 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 6 |
| 10 | Antequera | 4 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 5 |
| 11 | Juventud Torremolinos | 5 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 1 |
| 12 | Hércules | 5 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 9 |
| 13 | Sant Andreu | 5 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 7 |
| 14 | Rayo Majadahonda | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| 15 | FC Cartagena | 4 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 5 |
| 16 | Águilas CF | 5 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 5 |
| 17 | Real Madrid II | 4 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 5 |
| 18 | Huesca | 4 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 5 |
| 19 | Europa FC | 4 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 1 |
| 20 | Teruel | 4 | 0 | 7 | -7 | 1 |
