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Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Alcorcón Alcorcón ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 3-0 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.88
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Alcorcón win · Alcorcón 3–0 Gimnàstic de Tarragona
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
B-
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "1a812fe91974176ac3da89724de05f76c5d5b54279bbff26212907ec1f36a504",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.18,
"away_win_prob": 0.2969,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.459,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.542,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.294,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.37,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.4,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.44,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.42,
"home_win_prob": 0.4091,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Gimn\u00e0stic de Tarragona",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Gimn\u00e0stic de Tarragona"
},
"away_xg": 1.18,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Alcorc\u00f3n",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.078,
"edge_gap": 0.113,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4876,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 29.7,
"draw": 29.4,
"home": 41.0
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.88
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.88,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Alcorc\u00f3n Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.05,
"market_odds": 1.88,
"model_odds": 2.44,
"overround": 9.1,
"prob_edge": -12.2,
"value_pct": -23.0,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 2,
"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 3,
"away_score_rate": 69.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 3,
"home_score_rate": 75.8,
"no_prob": 45.9,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.1,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.1
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.18,
"home_expected": 1.42,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 7.5
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Alcorc\u00f3n or Draw",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Alcorc\u00f3n or Gimn\u00e0stic de Tarragona",
"prob": 70.6
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Gimn\u00e0stic de Tarragona",
"prob": 59.1
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Alcorc\u00f3n or Gimn\u00e0stic de Tarragona",
"pick_prob": 70.6
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 29.7,
"draw_pct": 29.4,
"home_pct": 40.9,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Alcorc\u00f3n"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 2.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 19.1,
"implied_prob": 24.9,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Gimn\u00e0stic de Tarragona Win",
"model_prob": 29.7,
"odds": 4.01
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Gimn\u00e0stic de Tarragona",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 22.86,
"draw": 28.38,
"home": 48.76
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 09:59:56",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 09:30:45",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Alcorc\u00f3n",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 48.76,
"gap_pp": -7.8,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 40.96
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.38,
"gap_pp": 1.01,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.39
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 22.86,
"gap_pp": 6.79,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 29.65
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 44.74,
"gap_pp": 3.46,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 55.26,
"gap_pp": -3.46,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.88,
"early": 1.88,
"implied_closing_pct": 48.76,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 48.76,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.23,
"early": 3.23,
"implied_closing_pct": 28.38,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 28.38,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 4.01,
"early": 4.01,
"implied_closing_pct": 22.86,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 22.86,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.1,
"early": 2.1,
"implied_closing_pct": 44.74,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 44.74,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.7,
"early": 1.7,
"implied_closing_pct": 55.26,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 55.26,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 6.8,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -3.0,
"ev": -0.194,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.5,
"market_prob": 0.1538,
"market_prob_pct": 15.4,
"model_prob": 0.124,
"model_prob_pct": 12.4,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.5
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 7.5
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.42,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2079,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.87,
"edge": 0.0105,
"edge_pp": 1.1,
"market_prob": 0.4905,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.541,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2079,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": -0.0105,
"ev": -0.1017,
"implied_prob": 0.5095,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.499
},
"p_final": 0.501,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0117,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0632,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2079,
"best_odd": 1.87,
"edge": 0.0105,
"ev": -0.0632,
"implied_prob": 0.4905,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.501
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1509,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.1,
"text": "-15.1%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.0333,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.3,
"text": "+3.3%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0333,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no_prob": 45.9,
"sort_key": 10029.97,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.1
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2142,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0068,
"edge_pp": 0.7,
"market_prob": 0.4501,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2142,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0068,
"ev": -0.0678,
"implied_prob": 0.4501,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.457
},
"p_final": 0.457,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.2,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0167,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0678,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2357,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0075,
"ev": -0.0943,
"implied_prob": 0.5499,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5424
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0122,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.2,
"text": "+1.2%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1194,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -11.9,
"text": "-11.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0122,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 5209.76,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 1.88,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.161,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.1,
"text": "-16.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4876,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0344,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.4,
"text": "-3.4%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.8,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.23,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.0%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Alcorc\u00f3n",
"sort_key": 1791.4,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.2,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.4
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "7/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "7/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +16.9%",
"alert_team": "Gimn\u00e0stic de Tarragona",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 7.9,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -7.85,
"hero_label": "Alcorc\u00f3n",
"market_prob_pct": 48.8,
"market_team": "Alcorc\u00f3n",
"model_prob_pct": 40.9,
"model_team": "Alcorc\u00f3n",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 62,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Alcorc\u00f3n)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Alcorc\u00f3n)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0333,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1891,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.3,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Alcorc\u00f3n at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 48.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Alcorc\u00f3n as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.8,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Alcorc\u00f3n",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Alcorc\u00f3n \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.90 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +19% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1571126 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.90 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +3.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.3% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.3% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Alcorc\u00f3n).",
"Decision strength: 6.3/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"Outlier price +19% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.161,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.88,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4876,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5319148936170213,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.23,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "7/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.875,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.8,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 87,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 7.85,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.85,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.18,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.42,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.42,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.42 \u00b7 Away xG 1.18 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +5%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.9,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +16.9%",
"steam_team": "Gimn\u00e0stic de Tarragona",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 61,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 61,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Alcorc\u00f3n)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Alcorc\u00f3n)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0333,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1891,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.3,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Alcorc\u00f3n at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 48.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Alcorc\u00f3n as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.8,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Alcorc\u00f3n",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Alcorc\u00f3n \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.90 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +19% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1571126 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.90 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +3.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.3% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.3% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Alcorc\u00f3n).",
"Decision strength: 6.3/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"Outlier price +19% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.161,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.88,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4876,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5319148936170213,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.23,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Alcorc\u00f3n 1.42 xG vs Gimn\u00e0stic de Tarragona 1.18 \u2192 Alcorc\u00f3n 40.9%",
"Market: Alcorc\u00f3n ~48.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Gimn\u00e0stic de Tarragona odds \u2191 +16.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Alcorc\u00f3n with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -7.85,
"fair_prob": 40.91,
"label": "Alcorc\u00f3n",
"market_prob": 48.76,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.02,
"fair_prob": 29.4,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.38,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.83,
"fair_prob": 29.69,
"label": "Gimn\u00e0stic de Tarragona",
"market_prob": 22.86,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.3,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.9,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.3,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.1,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.03,
"fair_prob": 54.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 49.07,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.03,
"fair_prob": 45.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 50.93,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -7.85,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.91,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Alcorc\u00f3n",
"market_prob_pct": 48.76,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Gimn\u00e0stic de Tarragona"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Alcorc\u00f3n\u0027s win probability at 48.8%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 40.9%, a difference of 7.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 7.85,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Alcorc\u00f3n",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 48.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-7.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -7.9,
"model_prob_pct": 40.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-7.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -7.9,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 87,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Alcorc\u00f3n \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 61,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 61,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Alcorc\u00f3n 1.42 xG vs Gimn\u00e0stic de Tarragona 1.18 \u2192 Alcorc\u00f3n 40.9%",
"Market: Alcorc\u00f3n ~48.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Gimn\u00e0stic de Tarragona odds \u2191 +16.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Alcorc\u00f3n with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -7.85,
"hero_label": "Alcorc\u00f3n",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Gimn\u00e0stic de Tarragona odds lengthened \u2191 +16.9%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Gimn\u00e0stic de Tarragona has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 16.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Alcorc\u00f3n. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Gimn\u00e0stic de Tarragona \u2014 odds lengthened by 16.9% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Alcorc\u00f3n. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, Gimn\u00e0stic de Tarragona has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 16.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Gimn\u00e0stic de Tarragona \u2014 odds lengthened by 16.9% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Alcorc\u00f3n above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Gimn\u00e0stic de Tarragona has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 16.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/8) supports the current market view on Gimn\u00e0stic de Tarragona."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 7.85,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 11.2 pp (at 40.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 11.2,
"max_prob_pct": 40.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Alcorc\u00f3n",
"largest_gap_pp": -7.8,
"lead": "The closing market prices Alcorc\u00f3n higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.8,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -7.85,
"edge_pp": -7.85,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.91,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Alcorc\u00f3n",
"market_prob_pct": 48.76,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.02,
"edge_pp": 1.02,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.4,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.38,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.83,
"edge_pp": 6.83,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.69,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Gimn\u00e0stic de Tarragona",
"market_prob_pct": 22.86,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Gimn\u00e0stic de Tarragona \u2014 odds lengthened by 16.9% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Alcorc\u00f3n (48.8%).",
"However, Gimn\u00e0stic de Tarragona has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +16.9%, 7/8) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"Alcorc\u00f3n \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 53.19,
"closing_odds": 1.88,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 53.19,
"entry_odds": 1.88,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +22.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 22.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +22.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 22.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +19.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 19.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +17.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +17.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +16.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.2
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "7/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.8,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +16.9%",
"move_pct_abs": 16.9,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 99h 30m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"7/8 books lengthened Gimn\u00e0stic de Tarragona together (16.9% drift, score 62) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.9,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.01",
"3.63",
"3.25"
],
"display": "4.10 \u2192 3.18 \u2192 3.80",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 99h 30m",
"pick_team": "Gimn\u00e0stic de Tarragona",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.10"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.18"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.80"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.25,
4.01,
3.8
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,5.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.25"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.25"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.01"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.80"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.25,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Gimn\u00e0stic de Tarragona odds \u2191 +16.9% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Gimn\u00e0stic de Tarragona",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Gimn\u00e0stic de Tarragona odds \u2191 +16.9% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.8,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +16.9%",
"open_odds": 3.25,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Gimn\u00e0stic de Tarragona",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 62,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/8",
"current_odds": 3.8,
"move_display": "\u2191 +16.9%",
"open_odds": 3.25,
"pick_team": "Gimn\u00e0stic de Tarragona",
"steam_score": 62,
"steam_team_name": "Gimn\u00e0stic de Tarragona",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 7.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "gimnastic",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Gimn\u00e0stic de Tarragona",
"away_team_id": 714,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/714.webp",
"away_team_name": "Gimn\u00e0stic de Tarragona",
"away_team_public_id": "5K34DwspYsvwvr",
"away_team_slug": "gimnastic",
"country_code": "ES",
"country_display_name": "Spain",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
"country_id": 145,
"country_name": "Spain",
"fixture_id": 1571126,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Spain",
"home_team_display_name": "Alcorc\u00f3n",
"home_team_id": 711,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/711.webp",
"home_team_name": "Alcorc\u00f3n",
"home_team_public_id": "0YIEHdzkgA9lro",
"home_team_slug": "alcorcon",
"ht.home_team_slug": "alcorcon",
"league_country": "Spain",
"league_country_display": "Spain",
"league_display_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n RFEF - Nh\u00f3m 2",
"league_id": 436,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/436.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n RFEF - Nh\u00f3m 2",
"league_public_id": "504vZPezCkhYyG",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-20 10:00:00",
"public_id": "17fGInI0svvLWF",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Estadio Municipal de Santo Domingo"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1796,
"best_odd": 4.01,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0122,
"ev": -0.0344,
"implied_prob": 0.2286,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2286,
"draw": 0.2838,
"home": 0.4876
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.2408
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2954,
"best_odd": 3.23,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.003,
"ev": -0.0737,
"implied_prob": 0.2838,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2286,
"draw": 0.2838,
"home": 0.4876
},
"model_prob": 0.2939,
"p_final": 0.2868
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5298,
"best_odd": 1.88,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0413,
"ev": -0.161,
"implied_prob": 0.4876,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2286,
"draw": 0.2838,
"home": 0.4876
},
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"p_final": 0.4463
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.01,
"edge": 0.0472,
"ev": 0.1891,
"implied_prob": 0.2494,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.23,
"edge": -0.0157,
"ev": -0.0507,
"implied_prob": 0.3096,
"model_prob": 0.2939
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.88,
"edge": -0.1224,
"ev": -0.23,
"implied_prob": 0.5319,
"model_prob": 0.4096
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2079,
"alpha_yes": 0.2079,
"best_no_odd": 1.85,
"best_yes_odd": 1.91,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0503,
"edge_yes": 0.0503,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1509,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1017,
"ev_yes": 0.0333,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0632,
"implied_no": 0.5093,
"implied_yes": 0.4907,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2079,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": -0.0105,
"ev": -0.1017,
"implied_prob": 0.5095,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.499
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2079,
"best_odd": 1.87,
"edge": 0.0105,
"ev": -0.0632,
"implied_prob": 0.4905,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.501
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.499,
"p_final_yes": 0.501,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2142,
"alpha_under": 0.2357,
"best_over_odd": 2.1,
"best_under_odd": 1.7,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.04,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.67,
"edge_over": 0.033,
"edge_under": -0.033,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0122,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0678,
"ev_under": -0.1194,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0943,
"implied_over": 0.449,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4501,
"implied_under": 0.551,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5499,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2142,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0068,
"ev": -0.0678,
"implied_prob": 0.4501,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.457
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2357,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0075,
"ev": -0.0943,
"implied_prob": 0.5499,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5424
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.457,
"p_final_under": 0.5424,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0333,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1891,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0333,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value"
],
"score": 6.3,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.3,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value"
],
"score": 6.3,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.3
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Alcorc\u00f3n)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0333,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1891,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.3,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Alcorc\u00f3n at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 48.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Alcorc\u00f3n as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.8,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Alcorc\u00f3n",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Alcorc\u00f3n \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.90 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +19% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1571126 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.90 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +3.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.3% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.3% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Alcorc\u00f3n).",
"Decision strength: 6.3/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"Outlier price +19% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.161,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.88,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4876,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5319148936170213,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.23,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.541,
"draw_prob": 0.2939,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4096,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.24
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0333,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4907,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.541,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
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"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0413,
"ev": -0.161,
"implied_prob": 0.4876,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Alcorc\u00f3n"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.87,
"edge": 0.0105,
"market_prob": 0.4905,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.541,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
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"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": -0.0105,
"ev": -0.1017,
"implied_prob": 0.5095,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.499
},
"p_final": 0.501,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0632,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
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"best_odd": 1.87,
"edge": 0.0105,
"ev": -0.0632,
"implied_prob": 0.4905,
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}
},
"edge": 0.0503,
"ev": 0.0333,
"implied_prob": 0.4907,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0068,
"market_prob": 0.4501,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
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"edge": 0.0068,
"ev": -0.0678,
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},
"p_final": 0.457,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0678,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2357,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0075,
"ev": -0.0943,
"implied_prob": 0.5499,
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},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.033,
"ev": 0.0122,
"implied_prob": 0.449,
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"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1571126,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0333,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2965,
"draw": 0.2939,
"home": 0.4096
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Gimn\u00e0stic de Tarragona",
"home": "Alcorc\u00f3n"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.161,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.88,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4876,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5319148936170213,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.23,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1571126,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T09:59:58.178219+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Alcorcón & Gimnàstic de Tarragona!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Primera División RFEF - Nhóm 2 — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Villarreal II | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 2 | Zaragoza | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 3 | Real Jaén | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 4 | Real Murcia | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 5 | Hércules | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 6 | Atlético Madrid II | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 7 | Gimnàstic de Tarragona | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | Sant Andreu | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 9 | Alcorcón | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 | Ibiza | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 11 | FC Cartagena | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 12 | Real Madrid II | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 13 | Antequera | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 14 | Águilas CF | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 15 | Huesca | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 16 | Rayo Majadahonda | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 17 | Algeciras | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 18 | Juventud Torremolinos | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| 19 | Europa FC | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 20 | Teruel | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Villarreal II | 5 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 13 |
| 2 | Atlético Madrid II | 5 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 8 |
| 3 | Real Jaén | 4 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 10 |
| 4 | Zaragoza | 5 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 12 |
| 5 | Real Murcia | 4 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 9 |
| 6 | Gimnàstic de Tarragona | 5 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| 7 | Ibiza | 5 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 6 |
| 8 | Algeciras | 5 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 4 |
| 9 | Alcorcón | 4 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 6 |
| 10 | Antequera | 4 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 5 |
| 11 | Juventud Torremolinos | 5 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 1 |
| 12 | Hércules | 5 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 9 |
| 13 | Sant Andreu | 5 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 7 |
| 14 | Rayo Majadahonda | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| 15 | FC Cartagena | 4 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 5 |
| 16 | Águilas CF | 5 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 5 |
| 17 | Real Madrid II | 4 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 5 |
| 18 | Huesca | 4 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 5 |
| 19 | Europa FC | 4 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 1 |
| 20 | Teruel | 4 | 0 | 7 | -7 | 1 |
