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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Villarreal II Villarreal II ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-3 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.92
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Villarreal II win · Huesca 0–3 Villarreal II
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
B-
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "623eebabc60a935c0a28596476a50d42dcc448ba8a746449f6ab0c603f85968d",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.39,
"away_win_prob": 0.3946,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.457,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2951,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.53,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.39,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.22,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.21,
"home_win_prob": 0.3103,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Huesca or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Huesca"
},
"away_xg": 1.39,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Villarreal II",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.1657,
"edge_gap": 0.0846,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.2293,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 39.5,
"draw": 29.5,
"home": 31.0
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 4.0
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 4.0,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Villarreal II Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 4.36,
"market_odds": 4.0,
"model_odds": 2.53,
"overround": 9.0,
"prob_edge": 14.5,
"value_pct": 58.1,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 2,
"away_score_rate": 75.1,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 2,
"home_score_rate": 70.2,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.39,
"home_expected": 1.21,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.3
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.0
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.6
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Huesca or Draw",
"prob": 60.5
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Huesca or Villarreal II",
"prob": 70.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Villarreal II",
"prob": 69.0
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Huesca or Villarreal II",
"pick_prob": 70.5
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 39.5,
"draw_pct": 29.5,
"home_pct": 31.0,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Villarreal II"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 2.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 58.1,
"implied_prob": 25.0,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Villarreal II Win",
"model_prob": 39.5,
"odds": 4.0
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Villarreal II",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 22.93,
"draw": 29.3,
"home": 47.77
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-13 10:00:03",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-13 09:31:15",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Huesca",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 47.77,
"gap_pp": -16.74,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 31.03
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 29.3,
"gap_pp": 0.17,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.47
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 22.93,
"gap_pp": 16.57,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 39.49
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 44.36,
"gap_pp": 3.84,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 55.64,
"gap_pp": -3.84,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.92,
"early": 1.92,
"implied_closing_pct": 47.77,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 47.77,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.13,
"early": 3.13,
"implied_closing_pct": 29.3,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 29.3,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 4.0,
"early": 4.0,
"implied_closing_pct": 22.93,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 22.93,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.12,
"early": 2.12,
"implied_closing_pct": 44.36,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 44.36,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.69,
"early": 1.69,
"implied_closing_pct": 55.64,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 55.64,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 16.6,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -2.9,
"ev": -0.1875,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.5,
"market_prob": 0.1538,
"market_prob_pct": 15.4,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.3
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.0
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.6
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.21,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2068,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.87,
"edge": 0.0112,
"edge_pp": 1.1,
"market_prob": 0.4891,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.543,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2275,
"best_odd": 1.79,
"edge": -0.0123,
"ev": -0.1074,
"implied_prob": 0.5109,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.4987
},
"p_final": 0.5002,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0154,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0646,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2068,
"best_odd": 1.87,
"edge": 0.0112,
"ev": -0.0646,
"implied_prob": 0.4891,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5002
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1683,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.8,
"text": "-16.8%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.086,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 8.6,
"text": "+8.6%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.086,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"sort_key": 10227.4,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2126,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.08,
"edge": 0.0078,
"edge_pp": 0.8,
"market_prob": 0.4453,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2126,
"best_odd": 2.08,
"edge": 0.0078,
"ev": -0.0575,
"implied_prob": 0.4453,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4531
},
"p_final": 0.4531,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0026,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0575,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2339,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0086,
"ev": -0.088,
"implied_prob": 0.5547,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5461
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0363,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.6,
"text": "+3.6%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1246,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -12.5,
"text": "-12.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0363,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10032.67,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Villarreal II, but the model still strongly favours Villarreal II.",
"consensus_odds": 4.0,
"decision": "small_edge",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.0168,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.7,
"text": "+1.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2293,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0168,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.7,
"text": "+1.7%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+16.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5796,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+58.0%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Villarreal II",
"sort_key": 5213.44,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "4/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "4/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +9.1%",
"alert_team": "Villarreal II",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 16.7,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -16.74,
"hero_label": "Huesca",
"market_prob_pct": 22.9,
"market_team": "Huesca",
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"model_team": "Villarreal II",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 42,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 16.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 16.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Villarreal II, but the model still strongly favours Villarreal II."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 16.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 16.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Villarreal II, but the model still strongly favours Villarreal II."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.086,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5798,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Villarreal II at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 22.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Villarreal II as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 16.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Villarreal II, but the model still strongly favours Villarreal II.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Villarreal II",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Villarreal II \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.91 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +58% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1571121 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.91 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Villarreal II, but the model still strongly favours Villarreal II.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +58% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 52,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Villarreal II, but the model still strongly favours Villarreal II.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0168,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.7%",
"consensus_odds": 4.0,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2293,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+16.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.25,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5796,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+58.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "4/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.4444444444444444,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (17 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 16.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 4.4,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 52,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 16.74,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 16.74,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.39,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.21,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.39,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.21 \u00b7 Away xG 1.39 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.1,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +9.1%",
"steam_team": "Villarreal II",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 5,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 5,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Villarreal II, but the model still strongly favours Villarreal II.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 16.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 16.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Villarreal II, but the model still strongly favours Villarreal II."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 16.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 16.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Villarreal II, but the model still strongly favours Villarreal II."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.086,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5798,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Villarreal II at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 22.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Villarreal II as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 16.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Villarreal II, but the model still strongly favours Villarreal II.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Villarreal II",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Villarreal II \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.91 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +58% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1571121 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.91 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Villarreal II, but the model still strongly favours Villarreal II.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +58% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 52,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Villarreal II, but the model still strongly favours Villarreal II.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0168,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.7%",
"consensus_odds": 4.0,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2293,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+16.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.25,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5796,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+58.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Villarreal II, but the model still strongly favours Villarreal II.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Huesca 1.21 xG vs Villarreal II 1.39 \u2192 Villarreal II 39.5%",
"Market: Huesca ~22.9% implied",
"Market Drift: Villarreal II odds \u2191 +9.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Villarreal II, but the market has moved away from Villarreal II.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -16.74,
"fair_prob": 31.03,
"label": "Huesca",
"market_prob": 47.77,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.21,
"fair_prob": 29.51,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 29.3,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 16.53,
"fair_prob": 39.46,
"label": "Villarreal II",
"market_prob": 22.93,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.8,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.4,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.8,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.6,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.64,
"fair_prob": 54.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 48.66,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.64,
"fair_prob": 45.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 51.34,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -16.74,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.03,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Huesca",
"market_prob_pct": 47.77,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Villarreal II"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Huesca\u0027s win probability at 47.8%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 31.0%, a difference of 16.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 16.74,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Villarreal II",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 22.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+16.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 16.6,
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+16.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 16.6,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 52,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Villarreal II, but the model still strongly favours Villarreal II. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 5,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 5,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Huesca 1.21 xG vs Villarreal II 1.39 \u2192 Villarreal II 39.5%",
"Market: Huesca ~22.9% implied",
"Market Drift: Villarreal II odds \u2191 +9.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Villarreal II, but the market has moved away from Villarreal II.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -16.74,
"hero_label": "Huesca",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Villarreal II odds lengthened \u2191 +9.1%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, Villarreal II has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.1%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (4/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Huesca than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from Villarreal II \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.1% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Huesca than the current fair estimate.",
"However, Villarreal II has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.1%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (4/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"Drift away from Villarreal II \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.1% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Huesca more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Villarreal II has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (4/9), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 16.74,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 8.4 pp (at 39.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 8.4,
"max_prob_pct": 39.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Huesca",
"largest_gap_pp": -16.7,
"lead": "The closing market prices Huesca higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 16.7,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -16.74,
"edge_pp": -16.74,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.03,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Huesca",
"market_prob_pct": 47.77,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.21,
"edge_pp": 0.21,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.51,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 29.3,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 16.53,
"edge_pp": 16.53,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.46,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Villarreal II",
"market_prob_pct": 22.93,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Villarreal II \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.1% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Huesca (22.9%).",
"Villarreal II odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +9.1%, 4/9) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Villarreal II, Market \u2192 Huesca, while Villarreal II odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 52.08,
"closing_odds": 1.92,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 52.08,
"entry_odds": 1.92,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 4,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.1
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "4/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.6,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +9.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 9.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 56h 30m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Villarreal II (9.1%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated the move, but wider market participation remains limited."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.00",
"3.65",
"3.30"
],
"display": "4.01 \u2192 3.30 \u2192 3.60",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 56h 30m",
"pick_team": "Villarreal II",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.01"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.60"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.3,
4.0,
3.6
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,10.3",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.60"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.3,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Villarreal II",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.6,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +9.1%",
"open_odds": 3.3,
"summary": "Market moved away from Villarreal II while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Villarreal II",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 42,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/9",
"current_odds": 3.6,
"move_display": "\u2191 +9.1%",
"open_odds": 3.3,
"pick_team": "Villarreal II",
"steam_score": 42,
"steam_team_name": "Villarreal II",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 16.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "villarreal-ii",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Villarreal II",
"away_team_id": 9595,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/9595.webp",
"away_team_name": "Villarreal II",
"away_team_public_id": "3YS3QbEJANTGDh",
"away_team_slug": "villarreal-ii",
"country_code": "ES",
"country_display_name": "Spain",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
"country_id": 145,
"country_name": "Spain",
"fixture_id": 1571121,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Spain",
"home_team_display_name": "Huesca",
"home_team_id": 726,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/726.webp",
"home_team_name": "Huesca",
"home_team_public_id": "4bD7OMJfs8nOPg",
"home_team_slug": "huesca",
"ht.home_team_slug": "huesca",
"league_country": "Spain",
"league_country_display": "Spain",
"league_display_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n RFEF - Nh\u00f3m 2",
"league_id": 436,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/436.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n RFEF - Nh\u00f3m 2",
"league_public_id": "504vZPezCkhYyG",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-13 10:00:00",
"public_id": "3478b2I185keGV",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Huesca",
"venue_name": "Estadio El Alcoraz"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1503,
"best_odd": 4.0,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0249,
"ev": 0.0168,
"implied_prob": 0.2293,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2293,
"draw": 0.293,
"home": 0.4777
},
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"p_final": 0.2542
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2992,
"best_odd": 3.13,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0005,
"ev": -0.0812,
"implied_prob": 0.293,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2293,
"draw": 0.293,
"home": 0.4777
},
"model_prob": 0.2947,
"p_final": 0.2935
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4494,
"best_odd": 1.92,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0752,
"ev": -0.2272,
"implied_prob": 0.4777,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2293,
"draw": 0.293,
"home": 0.4777
},
"model_prob": 0.3103,
"p_final": 0.4025
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.0,
"edge": 0.1449,
"ev": 0.5798,
"implied_prob": 0.25,
"model_prob": 0.3949
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.13,
"edge": -0.0247,
"ev": -0.0774,
"implied_prob": 0.3195,
"model_prob": 0.2947
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.92,
"edge": -0.2105,
"ev": -0.4042,
"implied_prob": 0.5208,
"model_prob": 0.3103
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2275,
"alpha_yes": 0.2068,
"best_no_odd": 1.82,
"best_yes_odd": 2.0,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0564,
"edge_yes": 0.0564,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1683,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1074,
"ev_yes": 0.086,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0646,
"implied_no": 0.5134,
"implied_yes": 0.4866,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2275,
"best_odd": 1.79,
"edge": -0.0123,
"ev": -0.1074,
"implied_prob": 0.5109,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.4987
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2068,
"best_odd": 1.87,
"edge": 0.0112,
"ev": -0.0646,
"implied_prob": 0.4891,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5002
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.4987,
"p_final_yes": 0.5002,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2126,
"alpha_under": 0.2339,
"best_over_odd": 2.15,
"best_under_odd": 1.69,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.08,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.67,
"edge_over": 0.038,
"edge_under": -0.038,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0363,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0575,
"ev_under": -0.1246,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.088,
"implied_over": 0.444,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4453,
"implied_under": 0.556,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5547,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2126,
"best_odd": 2.08,
"edge": 0.0078,
"ev": -0.0575,
"implied_prob": 0.4453,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4531
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2339,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0086,
"ev": -0.088,
"implied_prob": 0.5547,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5461
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4531,
"p_final_under": 0.5461,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.086,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5798,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.086,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.2,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.2
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 16.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 16.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Villarreal II, but the model still strongly favours Villarreal II."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.086,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5798,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Villarreal II at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 22.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Villarreal II as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 16.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Villarreal II, but the model still strongly favours Villarreal II.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Villarreal II",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Villarreal II \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.91 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +58% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1571121 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.91 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Villarreal II, but the model still strongly favours Villarreal II.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +58% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 52,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Villarreal II, but the model still strongly favours Villarreal II.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0168,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.7%",
"consensus_odds": 4.0,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2293,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+16.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.25,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5796,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+58.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
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"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
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],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"draw_prob": 0.2947,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3949,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.18
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
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"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0249,
"ev": 0.0168,
"implied_prob": 0.2293,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Villarreal II"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.87,
"edge": 0.0112,
"market_prob": 0.4891,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.543,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2275,
"best_odd": 1.79,
"edge": -0.0123,
"ev": -0.1074,
"implied_prob": 0.5109,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.4987
},
"p_final": 0.5002,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0646,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
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"best_odd": 1.87,
"edge": 0.0112,
"ev": -0.0646,
"implied_prob": 0.4891,
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}
},
"edge": 0.0564,
"ev": 0.086,
"implied_prob": 0.4866,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.08,
"edge": 0.0078,
"market_prob": 0.4453,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
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"edge": 0.0078,
"ev": -0.0575,
"implied_prob": 0.4453,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4531
},
"p_final": 0.4531,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0575,
"under": {
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"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0086,
"ev": -0.088,
"implied_prob": 0.5547,
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"p_final": 0.5461
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.038,
"ev": 0.0363,
"implied_prob": 0.444,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1571121,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.086,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 0.2947,
"home": 0.3103
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Villarreal II",
"home": "Huesca"
},
"top_pick": {
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"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.086,
"implied_prob": 0.4866,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.543,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0168,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.7%",
"consensus_odds": 4.0,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2293,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+16.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.25,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5796,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+58.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1571121,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-13T10:00:09.050306+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Huesca & Villarreal II!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Primera División RFEF - Nhóm 2 — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Villarreal II | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 2 | Zaragoza | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 3 | Real Jaén | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 4 | Alcorcón | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 5 | Real Murcia | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 6 | Hércules | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | Atlético Madrid II | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 8 | Antequera | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | Gimnàstic de Tarragona | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 10 | Sant Andreu | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 11 | Ibiza | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 12 | Huesca | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 13 | FC Cartagena | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 14 | Real Madrid II | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 15 | Águilas CF | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 16 | Rayo Majadahonda | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 17 | Algeciras | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 18 | Europa FC | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 19 | Teruel | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 20 | Juventud Torremolinos | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Villarreal II | 5 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 13 |
| 2 | Atlético Madrid II | 5 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 8 |
| 3 | Alcorcón | 5 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 9 |
| 4 | Zaragoza | 5 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 12 |
| 5 | Real Jaén | 5 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 10 |
| 6 | Real Murcia | 4 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 9 |
| 7 | Antequera | 5 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 8 |
| 8 | Gimnàstic de Tarragona | 5 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| 9 | Ibiza | 5 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 6 |
| 10 | Algeciras | 5 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 4 |
| 11 | Juventud Torremolinos | 5 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 1 |
| 12 | Hércules | 5 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 9 |
| 13 | Sant Andreu | 5 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 7 |
| 14 | Rayo Majadahonda | 5 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 4 |
| 15 | FC Cartagena | 4 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 5 |
| 16 | Real Madrid II | 5 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 5 |
| 17 | Huesca | 5 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 6 |
| 18 | Águilas CF | 5 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 5 |
| 19 | Europa FC | 5 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 4 |
| 20 | Teruel | 5 | 1 | 8 | -7 | 2 |
