Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Không ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Arenas Getxo Athletic Club II ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-3 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.41
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Athletic Club II win · Arenas Getxo 0–3 Athletic Club II
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "d4c83fdb3dfad6168db072b9647e5352b1166f0f52dbbc3673e15bdaa41c39b9",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.24,
"away_win_prob": 0.3239,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.456,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.09,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.63,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.36,
"home_win_prob": 0.3801,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Winner : Athletic Club II",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "50%",
"percent_draw": "50%",
"percent_home": "0%",
"winner_name": "Athletic Club II"
},
"away_xg": 1.24,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Arenas Getxo",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0264,
"edge_gap": 0.0566,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3539,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 32.4,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 38.0
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.59
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.59,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Arenas Getxo Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.83,
"market_odds": 2.59,
"model_odds": 2.63,
"overround": 9.1,
"prob_edge": -0.6,
"value_pct": -1.5,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 4,
"away_score_rate": 71.1,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 4,
"home_score_rate": 74.3,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.24,
"home_expected": 1.36,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.8
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Arenas Getxo or Draw",
"prob": 67.6
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Arenas Getxo or Athletic Club II",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Athletic Club II",
"prob": 62.0
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Arenas Getxo or Athletic Club II",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 32.4,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 38.0,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Arenas Getxo"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 2.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.8,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 2.1,
"implied_prob": 29.0,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.6,
"odds": 3.45
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Athletic Club II",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 38.04,
"draw": 26.57,
"home": 35.39
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 16:44:02",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 16:14:02",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Arenas Getxo",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 35.39,
"gap_pp": 2.64,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 38.03
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.57,
"gap_pp": 3.02,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.59
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 38.04,
"gap_pp": -5.66,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 32.37
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 52.24,
"gap_pp": -4.04,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 47.76,
"gap_pp": 4.04,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.59,
"early": 2.59,
"implied_closing_pct": 35.39,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 35.39,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.45,
"early": 3.45,
"implied_closing_pct": 26.57,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 26.57,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.41,
"early": 2.41,
"implied_closing_pct": 38.04,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 38.04,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.81,
"early": 1.81,
"implied_closing_pct": 52.24,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 52.24,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.98,
"early": 1.98,
"implied_closing_pct": 47.76,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 47.76,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 4.0,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.8,
"ev": -0.125,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.0,
"market_prob": 0.1429,
"market_prob_pct": 14.3,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.1
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.8
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.36,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2112,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"edge": 0.0087,
"edge_pp": 0.9,
"market_prob": 0.477,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2323,
"best_odd": 1.76,
"edge": -0.0095,
"ev": -0.0962,
"implied_prob": 0.523,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5135
},
"p_final": 0.4856,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.1,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0003,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0627,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2112,
"best_odd": 1.93,
"edge": 0.0087,
"ev": -0.0627,
"implied_prob": 0.477,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4856
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1276,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -12.8,
"text": "-12.8%"
},
"ev_under": 0.0878,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 8.8,
"text": "+8.8%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0878,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10229.02,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2161,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0057,
"edge_pp": 0.6,
"market_prob": 0.4297,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2161,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0057,
"ev": -0.0639,
"implied_prob": 0.4297,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4354
},
"p_final": 0.4354,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.6,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0196,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0639,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2377,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0063,
"ev": -0.0863,
"implied_prob": 0.5703,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.564
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0032,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.3,
"text": "+0.3%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1187,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -11.9,
"text": "-11.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0032,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"sort_key": 5202.56,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.59,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0538,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.4,
"text": "-5.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3539,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0534,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.3,
"text": "-5.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.6,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.015,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-1.5%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Arenas Getxo",
"sort_key": 1786.65,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -12.9%",
"alert_team": "Arenas Getxo",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 5.7,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -5.65,
"hero_label": "Athletic Club II",
"market_prob_pct": 35.4,
"market_team": "Athletic Club II",
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"model_team": "Arenas Getxo",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 61,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Arenas Getxo)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Arenas Getxo)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0878,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.2,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Arenas Getxo at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Arenas Getxo as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.6,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Arenas Getxo",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Arenas Getxo).",
"Decision strength: 6.2/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0538,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.59,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3539,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3861003861003861,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.015,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-1.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "5/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5555555555555556,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.6,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 85,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.65,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.65,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.24,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.36,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.36,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.36 \u00b7 Away xG 1.24 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.9,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -12.9%",
"steam_team": "Arenas Getxo",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 87,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 87,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Arenas Getxo).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Arenas Getxo)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Arenas Getxo)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0878,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.2,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Arenas Getxo at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Arenas Getxo as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.6,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Arenas Getxo",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Arenas Getxo).",
"Decision strength: 6.2/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0538,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.59,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3539,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3861003861003861,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.015,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-1.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Arenas Getxo 1.36 xG vs Athletic Club II 1.24 \u2192 Arenas Getxo 38.0%",
"Market: Athletic Club II ~35.4% implied",
"Market Steam: Arenas Getxo \u2193 -12.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Arenas Getxo with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 2.62,
"fair_prob": 38.01,
"label": "Arenas Getxo",
"market_prob": 35.39,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.02,
"fair_prob": 29.59,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.57,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.65,
"fair_prob": 32.39,
"label": "Athletic Club II",
"market_prob": 38.04,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.62,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 52.82,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.62,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 47.18,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.67,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 57.07,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.67,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 42.93,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -5.65,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.39,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Athletic Club II",
"market_prob_pct": 38.04,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Arenas Getxo"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Athletic Club II\u0027s win probability at 38.0%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 32.4%, a difference of 5.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 5.65,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Arenas Getxo",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 35.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+2.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 2.6,
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+2.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 2.6,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 85,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Arenas Getxo \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 87,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 87,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Arenas Getxo 1.36 xG vs Athletic Club II 1.24 \u2192 Arenas Getxo 38.0%",
"Market: Athletic Club II ~35.4% implied",
"Market Steam: Arenas Getxo \u2193 -12.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Arenas Getxo with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -5.65,
"hero_label": "Athletic Club II",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Arenas Getxo odds shortened \u2193 -12.9%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Arenas Getxo, with odds shortening by 12.9%.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Athletic Club II. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Buying interest on Arenas Getxo \u2014 odds shortened by 12.9%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Athletic Club II. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Arenas Getxo, with odds shortening by 12.9%.",
"Buying interest on Arenas Getxo \u2014 odds shortened by 12.9%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Athletic Club II above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Arenas Getxo has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 12.9%."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.65,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 5.6 pp (at 38.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 5.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Athletic Club II",
"largest_gap_pp": -5.7,
"lead": "The closing market prices Athletic Club II higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 5.7,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 2.62,
"edge_pp": 2.62,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Arenas Getxo",
"market_prob_pct": 35.39,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.02,
"edge_pp": 3.02,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.57,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -5.65,
"edge_pp": -5.65,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.39,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Athletic Club II",
"market_prob_pct": 38.04,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Arenas Getxo \u2014 odds shortened by 12.9%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Athletic Club II (35.4%).",
"However, Arenas Getxo has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -12.9%, 5/9).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Arenas Getxo, Market \u2192 Athletic Club II, Recent sharp money \u2192 Arenas Getxo.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 41.49,
"closing_odds": 2.41,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 41.49,
"entry_odds": 2.41,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -19.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -19.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -18.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -18.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -17.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -17.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -17.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -17.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -12.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.9
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "5/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.7,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -12.9%",
"move_pct_abs": 12.9,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 81h 45m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on Arenas Getxo (12.9%, 5/9) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.9,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.10",
"2.84",
"2.59"
],
"display": "3.25 \u2192 2.38 \u2192 2.70",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 81h 45m",
"pick_team": "Arenas Getxo",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.25"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.38"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.70"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.1,
2.59,
2.7
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,14.1",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.59"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.70"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.1,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Arenas Getxo \u2193 -12.9% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Arenas Getxo",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Arenas Getxo \u2193 -12.9% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.7,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -12.9%",
"open_odds": 3.1,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Arenas Getxo",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 61,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/9",
"current_odds": 2.7,
"move_display": "\u2193 -12.9%",
"open_odds": 3.1,
"pick_team": "Arenas Getxo",
"steam_score": 61,
"steam_team_name": "Arenas Getxo",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "athletic-club-ii",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Athletic Club II",
"away_team_id": 9579,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/9579.webp",
"away_team_name": "Athletic Club II",
"away_team_public_id": "0IiMQMXh6u29uC",
"away_team_slug": "athletic-club-ii",
"country_code": "ES",
"country_display_name": "Spain",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
"country_id": 145,
"country_name": "Spain",
"fixture_id": 1570757,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Spain",
"home_team_display_name": "Arenas Getxo",
"home_team_id": 9578,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/9578.webp",
"home_team_name": "Arenas Getxo",
"home_team_public_id": "0WPjUjGZPUNLPp",
"home_team_slug": "arenas-getxo",
"ht.home_team_slug": "arenas-getxo",
"league_country": "Spain",
"league_country_display": "Spain",
"league_display_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n RFEF - Nh\u00f3m 1",
"league_id": 435,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/435.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n RFEF - Nh\u00f3m 1",
"league_public_id": "2rWGCckC2HCYNB",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 16:45:00",
"public_id": "4aCzCO2Xy3IRBm",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Getxo",
"venue_name": "Estadio Municipal de Fadura"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4118,
"best_odd": 2.41,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0233,
"ev": -0.1395,
"implied_prob": 0.3804,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3804,
"draw": 0.2657,
"home": 0.3539
},
"model_prob": 0.3237,
"p_final": 0.357
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2864,
"best_odd": 3.45,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0087,
"ev": -0.0534,
"implied_prob": 0.2657,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3804,
"draw": 0.2657,
"home": 0.3539
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.2744
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4322,
"best_odd": 2.59,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0114,
"ev": -0.0538,
"implied_prob": 0.3539,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3804,
"draw": 0.2657,
"home": 0.3539
},
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"p_final": 0.3653
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.41,
"edge": -0.0912,
"ev": -0.2198,
"implied_prob": 0.4149,
"model_prob": 0.3237
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.45,
"edge": 0.0061,
"ev": 0.021,
"implied_prob": 0.2899,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.59,
"edge": -0.0058,
"ev": -0.0149,
"implied_prob": 0.3861,
"model_prob": 0.3803
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2161,
"alpha_yes": 0.2377,
"best_no_odd": 2.2,
"best_yes_odd": 1.62,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0267,
"edge_yes": -0.0267,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0032,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0639,
"ev_yes": -0.1187,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0863,
"implied_no": 0.4293,
"implied_yes": 0.5707,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2161,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0057,
"ev": -0.0639,
"implied_prob": 0.4297,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4354
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2377,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0063,
"ev": -0.0863,
"implied_prob": 0.5703,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.564
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.4354,
"p_final_yes": 0.564,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2323,
"alpha_under": 0.2112,
"best_over_odd": 1.81,
"best_under_odd": 2.1,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.76,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.93,
"edge_over": -0.0462,
"edge_under": 0.0462,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1276,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0962,
"ev_under": 0.0878,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0627,
"implied_over": 0.5282,
"implied_over_mf": 0.523,
"implied_under": 0.4718,
"implied_under_mf": 0.477,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2323,
"best_odd": 1.76,
"edge": -0.0095,
"ev": -0.0962,
"implied_prob": 0.523,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5135
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2112,
"best_odd": 1.93,
"edge": 0.0087,
"ev": -0.0627,
"implied_prob": 0.477,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4856
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5135,
"p_final_under": 0.4856,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0878,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0878,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.2,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.2,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.2,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.2
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Arenas Getxo)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0878,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.2,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Arenas Getxo at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Arenas Getxo as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.6,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Arenas Getxo",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Arenas Getxo).",
"Decision strength: 6.2/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0538,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.59,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3539,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3861003861003861,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.015,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-1.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3803,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.12
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.59,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0114,
"ev": -0.0538,
"implied_prob": 0.3539,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Arenas Getxo"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2161,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0057,
"market_prob": 0.4297,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2161,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0057,
"ev": -0.0639,
"implied_prob": 0.4297,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4354
},
"p_final": 0.4354,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0639,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2377,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0063,
"ev": -0.0863,
"implied_prob": 0.5703,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.564
}
},
"edge": 0.0267,
"ev": 0.0032,
"implied_prob": 0.4293,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2112,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"edge": 0.0087,
"market_prob": 0.477,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2323,
"best_odd": 1.76,
"edge": -0.0095,
"ev": -0.0962,
"implied_prob": 0.523,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5135
},
"p_final": 0.4856,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0627,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2112,
"best_odd": 1.93,
"edge": 0.0087,
"ev": -0.0627,
"implied_prob": 0.477,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4856
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0462,
"ev": 0.0878,
"implied_prob": 0.4718,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1570757,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0878,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3237,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3803
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Athletic Club II",
"home": "Arenas Getxo"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.031836,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0878,
"implied_prob": 0.4718,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0538,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.59,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3539,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3861003861003861,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.015,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-1.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1570757,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T16:44:07.506261+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Arenas Getxo & Athletic Club II!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Primera División RFEF - Nhóm 1 — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lugo | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 2 | Athletic Club II | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 3 | UD Logroñés | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 4 | Cacereño | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 5 | Deportivo La Coruña II | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 6 | Cultural Leonesa | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 7 | Real Unión | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | Mirandes | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | Pontevedra | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 10 | Ponferradina | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | Zamora | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 12 | Racing Ferrol | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 13 | CD Coria | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 14 | Real Avilés | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 15 | Barakaldo | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 16 | Mérida AD | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 17 | Extremadura 1924 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 18 | Unionistas de Salamanca | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 19 | Arenas Getxo | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| 20 | UD Ourense | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Unión | 5 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 7 |
| 2 | Athletic Club II | 5 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 11 |
| 3 | UD Logroñés | 4 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 10 |
| 4 | Mirandes | 4 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 7 |
| 5 | CD Coria | 5 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 5 |
| 6 | Lugo | 5 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 13 |
| 7 | Deportivo La Coruña II | 5 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 8 |
| 8 | Pontevedra | 4 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 7 |
| 9 | Unionistas de Salamanca | 4 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3 |
| 10 | Cacereño | 4 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 10 |
| 11 | Zamora | 5 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 | Racing Ferrol | 5 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 7 |
| 13 | Real Avilés | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| 14 | Cultural Leonesa | 5 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 8 |
| 15 | Mérida AD | 4 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 3 |
| 16 | Ponferradina | 4 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 7 |
| 17 | Arenas Getxo | 5 | 3 | 13 | -10 | 1 |
| 18 | Barakaldo | 4 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 4 |
| 19 | Extremadura 1924 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 3 |
| 20 | UD Ourense | 4 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 0 |
