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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (1 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Barakaldo Racing Ferrol ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.85
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Racing Ferrol win · Racing Ferrol 1–0 Barakaldo
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "1b573e85ffffa79621f467944361206f705f974ed9661964f3d2c9f133c58ff2",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.37,
"away_win_prob": 0.3849,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.456,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2957,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.6,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.13,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.23,
"home_win_prob": 0.3194,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Winner : Racing Ferrol and +1.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Racing Ferrol"
},
"away_xg": 1.37,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Barakaldo",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.157,
"edge_gap": 0.0651,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.2276,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 38.5,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 32.0
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"odd": 4.0
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 4.0,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"display_market": "Barakaldo Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 4.39,
"market_odds": 4.0,
"model_odds": 2.6,
"overround": 9.8,
"prob_edge": 13.5,
"value_pct": 53.8,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 2,
"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 3,
"away_score_rate": 74.6,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 3,
"home_score_rate": 70.8,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.37,
"home_expected": 1.23,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.7
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Racing Ferrol or Draw",
"prob": 61.5
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Racing Ferrol or Barakaldo",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Barakaldo",
"prob": 68.1
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Racing Ferrol or Barakaldo",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 38.5,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 31.9,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Barakaldo"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "+1.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.7,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.3,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"edge": 54.0,
"implied_prob": 25.0,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Barakaldo Win",
"model_prob": 38.5,
"odds": 4.0
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Barakaldo",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 22.76,
"draw": 28.02,
"home": 49.22
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Bet365",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 14:30:20",
"early_bookmaker": "Bet365",
"early_capture": "PRE10",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 14:21:02",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Racing Ferrol",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 49.22,
"gap_pp": -17.27,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 31.95
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.02,
"gap_pp": 1.57,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.59
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 22.76,
"gap_pp": 15.7,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 38.46
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 41.03,
"gap_pp": 7.17,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 58.97,
"gap_pp": -7.17,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 44.3,
"gap_pp": 10.1,
"kind": "btts_y",
"model_pct": 54.4
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 55.7,
"gap_pp": -10.1,
"kind": "btts_n",
"model_pct": 45.6
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.85,
"early": 1.85,
"implied_closing_pct": 49.22,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 49.22,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.25,
"early": 3.25,
"implied_closing_pct": 28.02,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 28.02,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 4.0,
"early": 4.0,
"implied_closing_pct": 22.76,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 22.76,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.3,
"early": 2.3,
"implied_closing_pct": 41.03,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 41.03,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.6,
"early": 1.6,
"implied_closing_pct": 58.97,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 58.97,
"kind": "ou_u"
},
{
"closing": 2.1,
"early": 2.1,
"implied_closing_pct": 44.3,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 44.3,
"kind": "btts_y"
},
{
"closing": 1.67,
"early": 1.67,
"implied_closing_pct": 55.7,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 55.7,
"kind": "btts_n"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 15.7,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -2.9,
"ev": -0.1875,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.5,
"market_prob": 0.1538,
"market_prob_pct": 15.4,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.7
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.23,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.202,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"edge": 0.0137,
"edge_pp": 1.4,
"market_prob": 0.476,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2223,
"best_odd": 1.735,
"edge": -0.0151,
"ev": -0.1171,
"implied_prob": 0.524,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5089
},
"p_final": 0.4897,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.039,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0646,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.202,
"best_odd": 1.91,
"edge": 0.0137,
"ev": -0.0646,
"implied_prob": 0.476,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4897
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1792,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -17.9,
"text": "-17.9%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.1424,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 14.2,
"text": "+14.2%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1424,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"sort_key": 10278.16,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2074,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"edge": 0.0108,
"edge_pp": 1.1,
"market_prob": 0.4297,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2074,
"best_odd": 2.13,
"edge": 0.0108,
"ev": -0.0616,
"implied_prob": 0.4297,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4406
},
"p_final": 0.4406,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0267,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0616,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2281,
"best_odd": 1.605,
"edge": -0.0119,
"ev": -0.1038,
"implied_prob": 0.5703,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5584
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1086,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 10.9,
"text": "+10.9%"
},
"ev_under": -0.166,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.6,
"text": "-16.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1086,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10097.74,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Barakaldo, but the model still strongly favours Barakaldo.",
"consensus_odds": 4.0,
"decision": "small_edge",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.0066,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.7,
"text": "+0.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2276,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0066,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.7,
"text": "+0.7%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+15.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5384,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+53.8%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Barakaldo",
"sort_key": 5205.28,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/5",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/5 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +42.9%",
"alert_team": "Barakaldo",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 17.3,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -17.28,
"hero_label": "Racing Ferrol",
"market_prob_pct": 22.8,
"market_team": "Racing Ferrol",
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"model_team": "Barakaldo",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 89,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 17.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.3,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Barakaldo, but the model still strongly favours Barakaldo."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 17.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.3,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Barakaldo, but the model still strongly favours Barakaldo."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1424,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5385,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Barakaldo at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 22.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Barakaldo as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 15.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Barakaldo, but the model still strongly favours Barakaldo.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Barakaldo",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Barakaldo \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.83 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +54% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1570751 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.83 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +14.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Barakaldo, but the model still strongly favours Barakaldo.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +54% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Barakaldo, but the model still strongly favours Barakaldo.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0066,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.7%",
"consensus_odds": 4.0,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2276,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+15.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.25,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5384,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+53.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "5/5",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (17 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 16.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 57,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 17.28,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 17.28,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.37,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.23,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.37,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.23 \u00b7 Away xG 1.37 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 42.9,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +42.9%",
"steam_team": "Barakaldo",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 7,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 7,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Barakaldo, but the model still strongly favours Barakaldo.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 17.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.3,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Barakaldo, but the model still strongly favours Barakaldo."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 17.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.3,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Barakaldo, but the model still strongly favours Barakaldo."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1424,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5385,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Barakaldo at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 22.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Barakaldo as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 15.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Barakaldo, but the model still strongly favours Barakaldo.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Barakaldo",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Barakaldo \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.83 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +54% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1570751 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.83 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +14.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Barakaldo, but the model still strongly favours Barakaldo.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +54% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Barakaldo, but the model still strongly favours Barakaldo.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0066,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.7%",
"consensus_odds": 4.0,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2276,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+15.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.25,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5384,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+53.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Barakaldo, but the model still strongly favours Barakaldo.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Racing Ferrol 1.23 xG vs Barakaldo 1.37 \u2192 Barakaldo 38.5%",
"Market: Racing Ferrol ~22.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Barakaldo odds \u2191 +42.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Barakaldo, but the market has moved away from Barakaldo.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -17.28,
"fair_prob": 31.94,
"label": "Racing Ferrol",
"market_prob": 49.22,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.55,
"fair_prob": 29.57,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.02,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 15.73,
"fair_prob": 38.49,
"label": "Barakaldo",
"market_prob": 22.76,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.74,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.46,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.74,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.54,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.35,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 47.05,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.35,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 52.95,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -17.28,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.94,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Racing Ferrol",
"market_prob_pct": 49.22,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Barakaldo"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Racing Ferrol\u0027s win probability at 49.2%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 31.9%, a difference of 17.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 17.28,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Barakaldo",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 22.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+15.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 15.7,
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+15.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 15.7,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 57,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Barakaldo, but the model still strongly favours Barakaldo. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 7,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 7,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Racing Ferrol 1.23 xG vs Barakaldo 1.37 \u2192 Barakaldo 38.5%",
"Market: Racing Ferrol ~22.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Barakaldo odds \u2191 +42.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Barakaldo, but the market has moved away from Barakaldo.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -17.28,
"hero_label": "Racing Ferrol",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Barakaldo odds lengthened \u2191 +42.9%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, Barakaldo has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 42.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Racing Ferrol than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from Barakaldo \u2014 odds lengthened by 42.9% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Racing Ferrol than the current fair estimate.",
"However, Barakaldo has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 42.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Barakaldo \u2014 odds lengthened by 42.9% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Racing Ferrol more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Barakaldo has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 42.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (5/5) supports the current market view on Barakaldo."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 17.28,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 6.6 pp (at 38.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 6.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Racing Ferrol",
"largest_gap_pp": -17.3,
"lead": "The closing market prices Racing Ferrol higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 17.3,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -17.28,
"edge_pp": -17.28,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.94,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Racing Ferrol",
"market_prob_pct": 49.22,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.55,
"edge_pp": 1.55,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.57,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.02,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 15.73,
"edge_pp": 15.73,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.49,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Barakaldo",
"market_prob_pct": 22.76,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Barakaldo \u2014 odds lengthened by 42.9% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Racing Ferrol (22.8%).",
"However, Barakaldo has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +42.9%, 5/5) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Barakaldo, Market \u2192 Racing Ferrol, while Barakaldo odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 54.05,
"closing_odds": 1.85,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 54.05,
"entry_odds": 1.85,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +42.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 42.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +30.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 30.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +20.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +19.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 19.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +17.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.9
}
],
"books_total": 5,
"breadth_display": "5/5",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.0,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +42.9%",
"move_pct_abs": 42.9,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 22h 14m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"5/5 books lengthened Barakaldo together (42.9% drift, score 89) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Broad multi-book drift \u2014 odds lengthened across sportsbooks (market fade)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 42.9,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.00",
"3.40",
"2.80"
],
"display": "4.00 \u2192 2.73 \u2192 4.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 22h 14m",
"pick_team": "Barakaldo",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.00"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.73"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.8,
4.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.80"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.80"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.8,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Barakaldo odds \u2191 +42.9% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Barakaldo",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Barakaldo odds \u2191 +42.9% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.0,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +42.9%",
"open_odds": 2.8,
"summary": "Market moved away from Barakaldo while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Barakaldo",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 89,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/5",
"current_odds": 4.0,
"move_display": "\u2191 +42.9%",
"open_odds": 2.8,
"pick_team": "Barakaldo",
"steam_score": 89,
"steam_team_name": "Barakaldo",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 17.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "barakaldo",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Barakaldo",
"away_team_id": 5251,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/5251.webp",
"away_team_name": "Barakaldo",
"away_team_public_id": "3lqL3xlh6LsVCA",
"away_team_slug": "barakaldo",
"country_code": "ES",
"country_display_name": "Spain",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
"country_id": 145,
"country_name": "Spain",
"fixture_id": 1570751,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Spain",
"home_team_display_name": "Racing Ferrol",
"home_team_id": 9409,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/9409.webp",
"home_team_name": "Racing Ferrol",
"home_team_public_id": "592EsJqTENDpWl",
"home_team_slug": "racing-ferrol",
"ht.home_team_slug": "racing-ferrol",
"league_country": "Spain",
"league_country_display": "Spain",
"league_display_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n RFEF - Nh\u00f3m 1",
"league_id": 435,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/435.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n RFEF - Nh\u00f3m 1",
"league_public_id": "2rWGCckC2HCYNB",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 14:30:00",
"public_id": "3E5wKB5CGng2IB",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Ferrol",
"venue_name": "Estadio Municipal da Malata"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1529,
"best_odd": 4.0,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.024,
"ev": 0.0066,
"implied_prob": 0.2276,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2276,
"draw": 0.2802,
"home": 0.4922
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"p_final": 0.2516
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2929,
"best_odd": 3.25,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0046,
"ev": -0.0745,
"implied_prob": 0.2802,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2276,
"draw": 0.2802,
"home": 0.4922
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.2848
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4446,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0768,
"ev": -0.2315,
"implied_prob": 0.4922,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2276,
"draw": 0.2802,
"home": 0.4922
},
"model_prob": 0.3195,
"p_final": 0.4154
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.0,
"edge": 0.1346,
"ev": 0.5385,
"implied_prob": 0.25,
"model_prob": 0.3846
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.25,
"edge": -0.0118,
"ev": -0.0384,
"implied_prob": 0.3077,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": -0.221,
"ev": -0.4089,
"implied_prob": 0.5405,
"model_prob": 0.3195
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2223,
"alpha_yes": 0.202,
"best_no_odd": 1.8,
"best_yes_odd": 2.1,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0735,
"edge_yes": 0.0735,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1792,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1171,
"ev_yes": 0.1424,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0646,
"implied_no": 0.5295,
"implied_yes": 0.4705,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2223,
"best_odd": 1.735,
"edge": -0.0151,
"ev": -0.1171,
"implied_prob": 0.524,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5089
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.202,
"best_odd": 1.91,
"edge": 0.0137,
"ev": -0.0646,
"implied_prob": 0.476,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4897
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.5089,
"p_final_yes": 0.4897,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2074,
"alpha_under": 0.2281,
"best_over_odd": 2.3,
"best_under_odd": 1.61,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.13,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.605,
"edge_over": 0.0574,
"edge_under": -0.0574,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1086,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0616,
"ev_under": -0.166,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1038,
"implied_over": 0.4246,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4297,
"implied_under": 0.5754,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5703,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2074,
"best_odd": 2.13,
"edge": 0.0108,
"ev": -0.0616,
"implied_prob": 0.4297,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4406
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2281,
"best_odd": 1.605,
"edge": -0.0119,
"ev": -0.1038,
"implied_prob": 0.5703,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5584
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4406,
"p_final_under": 0.5584,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1424,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5385,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1424,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.9
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 17.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.3,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Barakaldo, but the model still strongly favours Barakaldo."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1424,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5385,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Barakaldo at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 22.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Barakaldo as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 15.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Barakaldo, but the model still strongly favours Barakaldo.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Barakaldo",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Barakaldo \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.83 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +54% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1570751 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.83 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +14.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Barakaldo, but the model still strongly favours Barakaldo.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +54% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Barakaldo, but the model still strongly favours Barakaldo.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0066,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.7%",
"consensus_odds": 4.0,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2276,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+15.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.25,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5384,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+53.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3846,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.14
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 4.0,
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.024,
"ev": 0.0066,
"implied_prob": 0.2276,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Barakaldo"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.202,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"edge": 0.0137,
"market_prob": 0.476,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2223,
"best_odd": 1.735,
"edge": -0.0151,
"ev": -0.1171,
"implied_prob": 0.524,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5089
},
"p_final": 0.4897,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0646,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.202,
"best_odd": 1.91,
"edge": 0.0137,
"ev": -0.0646,
"implied_prob": 0.476,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4897
}
},
"edge": 0.0735,
"ev": 0.1424,
"implied_prob": 0.4705,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2074,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"edge": 0.0108,
"market_prob": 0.4297,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2074,
"best_odd": 2.13,
"edge": 0.0108,
"ev": -0.0616,
"implied_prob": 0.4297,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4406
},
"p_final": 0.4406,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0616,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2281,
"best_odd": 1.605,
"edge": -0.0119,
"ev": -0.1038,
"implied_prob": 0.5703,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5584
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0574,
"ev": 0.1086,
"implied_prob": 0.4246,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1570751,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1424,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3846,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3195
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1086,
"implied_prob": 0.4246,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1086,
"implied_prob": 0.4246,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Barakaldo",
"home": "Racing Ferrol"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.077466,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1424,
"implied_prob": 0.4705,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0066,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.7%",
"consensus_odds": 4.0,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2276,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+15.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.25,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5384,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+53.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1570751,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T14:30:24.212597+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Racing Ferrol & Barakaldo!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Primera División RFEF - Nhóm 1 — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lugo | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 2 | Athletic Club II | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 3 | UD Logroñés | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 4 | Cacereño | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 5 | Deportivo La Coruña II | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 6 | Cultural Leonesa | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 7 | Real Unión | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | Mirandes | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | Pontevedra | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 10 | Ponferradina | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | Zamora | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 12 | Racing Ferrol | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 13 | CD Coria | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 14 | Real Avilés | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 15 | Barakaldo | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 16 | Mérida AD | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 17 | Extremadura 1924 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 18 | Unionistas de Salamanca | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 19 | Arenas Getxo | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| 20 | UD Ourense | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Unión | 5 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 7 |
| 2 | Athletic Club II | 5 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 11 |
| 3 | UD Logroñés | 4 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 10 |
| 4 | Mirandes | 4 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 7 |
| 5 | CD Coria | 5 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 5 |
| 6 | Lugo | 5 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 13 |
| 7 | Deportivo La Coruña II | 5 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 8 |
| 8 | Pontevedra | 4 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 7 |
| 9 | Unionistas de Salamanca | 4 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3 |
| 10 | Cacereño | 4 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 10 |
| 11 | Zamora | 5 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 | Racing Ferrol | 5 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 7 |
| 13 | Real Avilés | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| 14 | Cultural Leonesa | 5 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 8 |
| 15 | Mérida AD | 4 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 3 |
| 16 | Ponferradina | 4 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 7 |
| 17 | Arenas Getxo | 5 | 3 | 13 | -10 | 1 |
| 18 | Barakaldo | 4 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 4 |
| 19 | Extremadura 1924 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 3 |
| 20 | UD Ourense | 4 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 0 |
