Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (1 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Không ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Real Madrid Real Madrid ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0, 3-1 1-0 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.33
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Real Madrid win · Real Madrid 1–0 Villarreal
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "633186ae0697d4f8f287c8271ca7ffd9e0774c69ffd2dab869f8def41bdfee69",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"afp_away_win_prob": 0.1664,
"afp_draw_prob": 0.2096,
"afp_home_win_prob": 0.624,
"away_predicted_xg": 1.08,
"away_win_prob": 0.1664,
"away_win_prob_posterior": 0.1664,
"bayes_applied": 1,
"btts_no_prob": 0.422,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.578,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2096,
"draw_prob_posterior": 0.2096,
"fair_odds_away": 6.01,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": 6.01,
"fair_odds_draw": 4.77,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": 4.77,
"fair_odds_home": 1.6,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": 1.6,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.93,
"home_win_prob": 0.624,
"home_win_prob_posterior": 0.624,
"over_25_prob": 0.579,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.421
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : Real Madrid or draw and +1.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Real Madrid"
},
"away_xg": 1.08,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Real Madrid",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"edge": -0.0904,
"edge_gap": 0.4149,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.7148,
"model_prob": 0.6244,
"pick_type": "no_value",
"probabilities": {
"away": 16.6,
"draw": 20.9,
"home": 62.4
},
"reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "bet365 us",
"odd": 1.33
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.33,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "bet365 us",
"display_market": "Real Madrid Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 1.4,
"market_odds": 1.33,
"model_odds": 1.6,
"overround": 5.2,
"prob_edge": -12.7,
"value_pct": -16.9,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 7,
"away_score_rate": 66.0,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 7,
"home_score_rate": 85.5,
"no_prob": 42.2,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 57.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 57.8
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.08,
"home_expected": 1.93,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 3,
"label": "3-1",
"prob": 6.4
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Real Madrid or Draw",
"prob": 83.4
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Real Madrid or Villarreal",
"prob": 79.0
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Villarreal",
"prob": 37.6
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Real Madrid or Draw",
"pick_prob": 83.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 16.6,
"draw_pct": 21.0,
"home_pct": 62.4,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Real Madrid"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "+1.5",
"avg_total": 3.01,
"away_avg_scored": 1.9,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 2.6,
"over_prob": 57.9,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 57.9,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 3.01,
"under_prob": 42.1
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "bet365 us",
"edge": 26.0,
"implied_prob": 16.7,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 21.0,
"odds": 6.0
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"has_data": false
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 2.6,
"ev": 0.339,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 13.0,
"market_prob": 0.0769,
"market_prob_pct": 7.7,
"model_prob": 0.103,
"model_prob_pct": 10.3,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.3
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.3
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"label": "3-1",
"prob": 6.4
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.93,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2001,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.54,
"edge": 0.0317,
"edge_pp": 3.2,
"market_prob": 0.2625,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.421,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4402,
"best_odd": 1.26,
"edge": -0.0698,
"ev": -0.1587,
"implied_prob": 0.7375,
"model_prob": 0.579,
"p_final": 0.6677
},
"p_final": 0.2942,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4903,
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0415,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2001,
"best_odd": 3.54,
"edge": 0.0317,
"ev": 0.0415,
"implied_prob": 0.2625,
"model_prob": 0.421,
"p_final": 0.2942
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2473,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -24.7,
"text": "-24.7%"
},
"ev_under": 0.7261,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 72.6,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.7261,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 57.9,
"sort_key": 10803.49,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 42.1,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3748,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.635,
"edge": 0.0269,
"edge_pp": 2.7,
"market_prob": 0.3502,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.422,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3748,
"best_odd": 2.635,
"edge": 0.0269,
"ev": -0.0063,
"implied_prob": 0.3502,
"model_prob": 0.422,
"p_final": 0.3771
},
"p_final": 0.3771,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.112,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0063,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5153,
"best_odd": 1.42,
"edge": -0.037,
"ev": -0.1298,
"implied_prob": 0.6498,
"model_prob": 0.578,
"p_final": 0.6128
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1816,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 18.2,
"text": "+18.2%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1619,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.2,
"text": "-16.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1816,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 42.2,
"sort_key": 10163.44,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 57.8
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 1.33,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1117,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -11.2,
"text": "-11.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.7148,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0072,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.7,
"text": "+0.7%"
},
"model_prob": 0.6244,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.0,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1695,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-17.0%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Real Madrid",
"sort_key": 5205.76,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 810.9,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 10.3
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "4/10",
"alert_breadth_note": "4/10 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +9.5%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 0.0,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"market_team": "Real Madrid",
"model_prob_pct": 62.4,
"model_team": "Real Madrid",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 44,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Real Madrid)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Real Madrid)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.7261,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7261,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.4,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 67,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Real Madrid at 62.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 71.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Real Madrid as the value side (62.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Real Madrid",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +72.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +72.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 7.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +72.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "67 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+72.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Real Madrid).",
"Decision strength: 7.9/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1117,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.33,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.7148,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6244,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.7518796992481203,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1695,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-17.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 43.0,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.85"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.85
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "4/10",
"breadth_ratio": 0.4,
"evidence": {
"score": 86,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Moderate model lean",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation pending",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pending",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 25.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 4.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 8.0
},
"score": 64,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 0.0,
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.08,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 43.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.93,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.93,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.93 \u00b7 Away xG 1.08 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +43%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pending",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.5,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +9.5%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 67,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 55,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 62,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 55,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Real Madrid)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Real Madrid)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.7261,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7261,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.4,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 67,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Real Madrid at 62.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 71.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Real Madrid as the value side (62.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Real Madrid",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +72.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +72.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 7.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +72.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "67 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+72.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Real Madrid).",
"Decision strength: 7.9/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1117,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.33,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.7148,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6244,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.7518796992481203,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1695,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-17.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 43.0,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.85"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.85
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Real Madrid 1.93 xG vs Villarreal 1.08 \u2192 Real Madrid 62.4%",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +9.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Real Madrid projects stronger on expected goals (+0.85 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 62.4,
"label": "Real Madrid",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 20.96,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 16.64,
"label": "Villarreal",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -16.55,
"fair_prob": 57.9,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 74.45,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 16.55,
"fair_prob": 42.1,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 25.55,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.45,
"fair_prob": 57.8,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 65.25,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.45,
"fair_prob": 42.2,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 34.75,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"comparison_available": false,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "",
"edge_label_key": "",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Favourite",
"favourite_label": "Real Madrid",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
"headline": "Clear favourite",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 71.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-9.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -9.1,
"model_prob_pct": 62.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "high",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-9.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -9.1,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 64,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Real Madrid \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "favourite",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pending",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 67,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 55,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 62,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 55,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Real Madrid 1.93 xG vs Villarreal 1.08 \u2192 Real Madrid 62.4%",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +9.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Real Madrid projects stronger on expected goals (+0.85 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": false,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"hero_side": null,
"market_activity": "Draw odds lengthened \u2191 +9.5%.",
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pending",
"status": "pending"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 41.4 pp (at 62.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 41.4,
"max_prob_pct": 62.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "High",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "",
"largest_gap_pp": null,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 62.4,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Real Madrid",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 20.96,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 16.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Villarreal",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
}
],
"status": "unknown",
"status_label": "\u2014",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical model leans Real Madrid (62.4%).",
"Draw odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +9.5%, 4/10) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Real Madrid \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": null,
"closing_odds": null,
"closing_reason": "No complete pre-match closing snapshot",
"closing_status": "unavailable",
"closing_status_label": "Unavailable",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": null,
"clv_reason": "Requires closing line after full time",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "closing_unavailable",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Closing unavailable",
"entry_implied_pct": 17.39,
"entry_odds": 5.75,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "2H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 2H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"model_validation_status": "pending",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "unavailable"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 4,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.5
}
],
"books_total": 10,
"breadth_display": "4/10",
"clv_label": "Ready to validate",
"clv_status": "ready",
"current_odds": 5.75,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +9.5%",
"move_pct_abs": 9.5,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 131h 23m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"SBO led repricing on Draw (9.5%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated the move, but wider market participation remains limited."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.5,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"6.00",
"5.62",
"5.25"
],
"display": "6.05 \u2192 5.00 \u2192 5.75",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 131h 23m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "6.05"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "5.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.75"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
5.25,
6.0,
5.75
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,6.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.25"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "5.25"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "6.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.75"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 5.25,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "SBO",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 5.75,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +9.5%",
"open_odds": 5.25,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 44,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/10",
"current_odds": 5.75,
"move_display": "\u2191 +9.5%",
"open_odds": 5.25,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 44,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "villarreal",
"away_expected_goals": 0.03,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Villarreal",
"away_team_id": 533,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/533.webp",
"away_team_name": "Villarreal",
"away_team_public_id": "0IpdF7vJ229w15",
"away_team_slug": "villarreal",
"country_code": "ES",
"country_display_name": "Spain",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
"country_id": 145,
"country_name": "Spain",
"fixture_id": 1570411,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": 0.27,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Spain",
"home_team_display_name": "Real Madrid",
"home_team_id": 541,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/541.webp",
"home_team_name": "Real Madrid",
"home_team_public_id": "5CL0dYQqjxlYKe",
"home_team_slug": "real-madrid",
"ht.home_team_slug": "real-madrid",
"league_country": "Spain",
"league_country_display": "Spain",
"league_display_name": "La Liga",
"league_id": 140,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/140.webp",
"league_name": "La Liga",
"league_public_id": "49oABHuePA7Q7M",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-10 19:00:00",
"public_id": "4WaFJH6FrbzUxV",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Second Half",
"status_short": "2H",
"venue_city": "Madrid",
"venue_name": "Santiago Bernab\u00e9u Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 9.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1882,
"best_odd": 7.5,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0074,
"ev": 0.0064,
"implied_prob": 0.1268,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1268,
"draw": 0.1584,
"home": 0.7148
},
"model_prob": 0.1662,
"p_final": 0.1342
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1847,
"best_odd": 6.0,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0094,
"ev": 0.0072,
"implied_prob": 0.1584,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1268,
"draw": 0.1584,
"home": 0.7148
},
"model_prob": 0.2094,
"p_final": 0.1679
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5186,
"best_odd": 1.33,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0469,
"ev": -0.1117,
"implied_prob": 0.7148,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1268,
"draw": 0.1584,
"home": 0.7148
},
"model_prob": 0.6244,
"p_final": 0.6679
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 7.5,
"edge": 0.0329,
"ev": 0.2466,
"implied_prob": 0.1333,
"model_prob": 0.1662
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 6.0,
"edge": 0.0428,
"ev": 0.2566,
"implied_prob": 0.1667,
"model_prob": 0.2094
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.33,
"edge": -0.1275,
"ev": -0.1696,
"implied_prob": 0.7519,
"model_prob": 0.6244
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.3748,
"alpha_yes": 0.5153,
"best_no_odd": 2.8,
"best_yes_odd": 1.45,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0745,
"edge_yes": -0.0745,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1816,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0063,
"ev_yes": -0.1619,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1298,
"implied_no": 0.3475,
"implied_yes": 0.6525,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3748,
"best_odd": 2.635,
"edge": 0.0269,
"ev": -0.0063,
"implied_prob": 0.3502,
"model_prob": 0.422,
"p_final": 0.3771
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5153,
"best_odd": 1.42,
"edge": -0.037,
"ev": -0.1298,
"implied_prob": 0.6498,
"model_prob": 0.578,
"p_final": 0.6128
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.3771,
"p_final_yes": 0.6128,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.4402,
"alpha_under": 0.2001,
"best_over_odd": 1.3,
"best_under_odd": 4.1,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.26,
"consensus_under_odd": 3.54,
"edge_over": -0.1655,
"edge_under": 0.1655,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2473,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1587,
"ev_under": 0.7261,
"ev_under_risk_adj": 0.0415,
"implied_over": 0.7445,
"implied_over_mf": 0.7375,
"implied_under": 0.2555,
"implied_under_mf": 0.2625,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4402,
"best_odd": 1.26,
"edge": -0.0698,
"ev": -0.1587,
"implied_prob": 0.7375,
"model_prob": 0.579,
"p_final": 0.6677
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2001,
"best_odd": 3.54,
"edge": 0.0317,
"ev": 0.0415,
"implied_prob": 0.2625,
"model_prob": 0.421,
"p_final": 0.2942
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6677,
"p_final_under": 0.2942,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.01,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.7261,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7261,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.7261,
"confidence": 7.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 7.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 7.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.4,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 7.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.4
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Real Madrid)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.7261,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7261,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.4,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 67,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Real Madrid at 62.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 71.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Real Madrid as the value side (62.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Real Madrid",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +72.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +72.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 7.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +72.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "67 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+72.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Real Madrid).",
"Decision strength: 7.9/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1117,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.33,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.7148,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6244,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.7518796992481203,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1695,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-17.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 43.0,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.85"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.85
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.578,
"draw_prob": 0.2094,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.6244,
"over_prob": 0.579,
"total_xg": 3.01,
"under_prob": 0.421,
"xg_diff": 0.85
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.33,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0469,
"ev": -0.1117,
"implied_prob": 0.7148,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.6244,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Real Madrid"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3748,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.635,
"edge": 0.0269,
"market_prob": 0.3502,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.422,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3748,
"best_odd": 2.635,
"edge": 0.0269,
"ev": -0.0063,
"implied_prob": 0.3502,
"model_prob": 0.422,
"p_final": 0.3771
},
"p_final": 0.3771,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0063,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5153,
"best_odd": 1.42,
"edge": -0.037,
"ev": -0.1298,
"implied_prob": 0.6498,
"model_prob": 0.578,
"p_final": 0.6128
}
},
"edge": 0.0745,
"ev": 0.1816,
"implied_prob": 0.3475,
"model_prob": 0.422,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2001,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.54,
"edge": 0.0317,
"market_prob": 0.2625,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.421,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4402,
"best_odd": 1.26,
"edge": -0.0698,
"ev": -0.1587,
"implied_prob": 0.7375,
"model_prob": 0.579,
"p_final": 0.6677
},
"p_final": 0.2942,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0415,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2001,
"best_odd": 3.54,
"edge": 0.0317,
"ev": 0.0415,
"implied_prob": 0.2625,
"model_prob": 0.421,
"p_final": 0.2942
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1655,
"ev": 0.7261,
"implied_prob": 0.2555,
"model_prob": 0.421,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1570411,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.7261,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.1662,
"draw": 0.2094,
"home": 0.6244
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1816,
"implied_prob": 0.3475,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.422,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1816,
"implied_prob": 0.3475,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.422,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Villarreal",
"home": "Real Madrid"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.305688,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.7261,
"implied_prob": 0.2555,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.421,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1117,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.33,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.7148,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6244,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.7518796992481203,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1695,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-17.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1570411,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-10T20:23:28.380249+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Real Madrid & Villarreal!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
La Liga — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 24 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 18 |
| 5 | Sevilla | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Alaves | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | Deportivo La Coruña | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Athletic Bilbao | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 14 | Getafe | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 15 | Racing Santander | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 17 | Levante | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 18 | Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 19 | Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 20 | Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 8 | 34 | 7 | +27 | 24 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 8 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 18 |
| 3 | Atletico Madrid | 8 | 18 | 8 | +10 | 19 |
| 4 | Real Betis | 8 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 19 |
| 5 | Sevilla | 8 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 14 |
| 6 | Villarreal | 8 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 8 |
| 7 | Racing Santander | 8 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 8 |
| 8 | Alaves | 8 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 11 |
| 9 | Deportivo La Coruña | 8 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 10 |
| 10 | Real Sociedad | 8 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 13 |
| 11 | Espanyol | 8 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Levante | 7 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 6 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 | Elche | 8 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Celta Vigo | 8 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 8 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 8 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 | Athletic Bilbao | 6 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 8 |
| 18 | Valencia | 8 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 5 |
| 19 | Getafe | 8 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 8 |
| 20 | Malaga | 8 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 4 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 8 | 16.9 | 2.8 | +14.1 | 24 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 8 | 7.2 | 2.4 | +4.8 | 18 |
| 3 | Osasuna | 8 | 8.6 | 6.2 | +2.4 | 8 |
| 4 | Alaves | 8 | 6.9 | 5.7 | +1.2 | 11 |
| 5 | Racing Santander | 8 | 5.8 | 4.8 | +1.0 | 8 |
| 6 | Espanyol | 8 | 3.9 | 3.0 | +0.9 | 8 |
| 7 | Real Betis | 8 | 10.1 | 9.4 | +0.7 | 19 |
| 8 | Sevilla | 8 | 5.9 | 6.0 | -0.1 | 14 |
| 9 | Villarreal | 8 | 8.3 | 8.5 | -0.2 | 8 |
| 10 | Levante | 7 | 7.3 | 7.9 | -0.6 | 6 |
| 11 | Athletic Bilbao | 6 | 4.1 | 4.9 | -0.8 | 8 |
| 12 | Malaga | 8 | 5.1 | 6.2 | -1.1 | 4 |
| 13 | Deportivo La Coruña | 8 | 5.0 | 6.2 | -1.2 | 10 |
| 14 | Atletico Madrid | 8 | 4.6 | 5.8 | -1.2 | 19 |
| 15 | Real Sociedad | 8 | 5.1 | 7.1 | -2.0 | 13 |
| 16 | Elche | 8 | 4.0 | 6.4 | -2.4 | 6 |
| 17 | Valencia | 8 | 5.4 | 8.2 | -2.8 | 5 |
| 18 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 3.5 | 7.0 | -3.5 | 8 |
| 19 | Celta Vigo | 8 | 2.9 | 7.3 | -4.4 | 8 |
| 20 | Getafe | 8 | 2.9 | 7.5 | -4.6 | 8 |
