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Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (2 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Không ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Łomża Ząbkovia Ząbki ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 0-2 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.89
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Ząbkovia Ząbki win · Łomża 0–2 Ząbkovia Ząbki
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "e3e6a58af6108ab91de058be56ebe010a5ca5900fafb30c1a10313a203809e69",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.08,
"away_win_prob": 0.2537,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.468,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.532,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2881,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.94,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.47,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.18,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.52,
"home_win_prob": 0.4582,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Z\u0105bkovia Z\u0105bki",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : \u0141om\u017ca",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Z\u0105bkovia Z\u0105bki"
},
"away_xg": 1.08,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "\u0141om\u017ca",
"confidence": 45.8,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "Winner : \u0141om\u017ca",
"edge": 0.1602,
"edge_gap": 0.1704,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.2982,
"model_prob": 0.4584,
"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
"away": 25.4,
"draw": 28.8,
"home": 45.8
},
"reason": "",
"selection": "home",
"selection_name": "\u0141om\u017ca"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.96
}
],
"risk_color": "#f44336",
"risk_key": "high_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.96,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "\u0141om\u017ca Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 3.35,
"market_odds": 2.96,
"model_odds": 2.18,
"overround": 13.3,
"prob_edge": 12.1,
"value_pct": 35.8,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 2,
"away_failed_to_score": 2,
"away_played": 8,
"away_score_rate": 66.0,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 2,
"home_played": 7,
"home_score_rate": 78.1,
"no_prob": 46.8,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 53.2,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 53.2
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.08,
"home_expected": 1.52,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.2
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 11.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "\u0141om\u017ca or Draw",
"prob": 74.6
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "\u0141om\u017ca or Z\u0105bkovia Z\u0105bki",
"prob": 71.2
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Z\u0105bkovia Z\u0105bki",
"prob": 54.2
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "\u0141om\u017ca or Draw",
"pick_prob": 74.6
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 25.4,
"draw_pct": 28.8,
"home_pct": 45.8,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "\u0141om\u017ca"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.8,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.3,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 35.8,
"implied_prob": 33.8,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "\u0141om\u017ca Win",
"model_prob": 45.9,
"odds": 2.96
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Z\u0105bkovia Z\u0105bki",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 46.7,
"draw": 23.48,
"home": 29.82
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-18 14:00:17",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-18 13:31:06",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "\u0141om\u017ca",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 29.82,
"gap_pp": 16.02,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 45.84
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 23.48,
"gap_pp": 5.32,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 28.8
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 46.7,
"gap_pp": -21.34,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 25.36
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 63.43,
"gap_pp": -15.23,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 36.57,
"gap_pp": 15.23,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.96,
"early": 2.96,
"implied_closing_pct": 29.82,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 29.82,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.76,
"early": 3.76,
"implied_closing_pct": 23.48,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 23.48,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 1.89,
"early": 1.89,
"implied_closing_pct": 46.7,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 46.7,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.43,
"early": 1.43,
"implied_closing_pct": 63.43,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 63.43,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.48,
"early": 2.48,
"implied_closing_pct": 36.57,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 36.57,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 16.0,
"kind": "1x2_h"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -0.3,
"ev": -0.024,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 8.0,
"market_prob": 0.125,
"market_prob_pct": 12.5,
"model_prob": 0.122,
"model_prob_pct": 12.2,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.2
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.2
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 11.3
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.52,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1472,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.64,
"edge": 0.0179,
"edge_pp": 1.8,
"market_prob": 0.3465,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.468,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1472,
"best_odd": 2.64,
"edge": 0.0179,
"ev": -0.0379,
"implied_prob": 0.3465,
"model_prob": 0.468,
"p_final": 0.3644
},
"p_final": 0.3644,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2355,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0379,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2024,
"best_odd": 1.4,
"edge": -0.0246,
"ev": -0.1196,
"implied_prob": 0.6535,
"model_prob": 0.532,
"p_final": 0.6289
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2636,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 26.4,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_yes": -0.2552,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -25.5,
"text": "-25.5%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.2636,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no_prob": 46.8,
"sort_key": 10387.24,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 53.2
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1384,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.49,
"edge": 0.0213,
"edge_pp": 2.1,
"market_prob": 0.364,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1903,
"best_odd": 1.425,
"edge": -0.0293,
"ev": -0.1354,
"implied_prob": 0.636,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6067
},
"p_final": 0.3853,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2898,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0406,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1384,
"best_odd": 2.49,
"edge": 0.0213,
"ev": -0.0406,
"implied_prob": 0.364,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3853
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.277,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -27.7,
"text": "-27.7%"
},
"ev_under": 0.3209,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 32.1,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.3209,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10288.81,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"authority_action": "wait",
"authority_note": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"consensus_odds": 2.96,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.0448,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 4.5,
"text": "+4.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2982,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0448,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 4.5,
"text": "+4.5%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4584,
"raw_edge_display": "+16.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3569,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+35.7%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "\u0141om\u017ca",
"sort_key": 10040.32,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 816.6,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.2
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "4/7",
"alert_breadth_note": "4/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +9.1%",
"alert_team": "Z\u0105bkovia Z\u0105bki",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 21.3,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -21.33,
"hero_label": "Z\u0105bkovia Z\u0105bki",
"market_prob_pct": 29.8,
"market_team": "Z\u0105bkovia Z\u0105bki",
"model_prob_pct": 45.8,
"model_team": "\u0141om\u017ca",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 43,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 21.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 21.3,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (\u0141om\u017ca), but pricing still diverges by 21.3 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 21.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 21.3,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (\u0141om\u017ca), but pricing still diverges by 21.3 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3209,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3568,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 39,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates \u0141om\u017ca at 45.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies \u0141om\u017ca as the value side (45.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 16.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "\u0141om\u017ca",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side \u0141om\u017ca \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.90 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +36% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1569100 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.90 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +32.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +32.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "61 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "39 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+32.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (\u0141om\u017ca), but pricing still diverges by 21.3 pp.",
"Decision strength: 5.5/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +36% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 61,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0448,
"consensus_ev_display": "+4.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.96,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2982,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4584,
"raw_edge_display": "+16.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33783783783783783,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3569,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+35.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 12.6,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.44"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.44
}
}
},
"bet_status": "wait",
"books_breadth_display": "4/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5714285714285714,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (21 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 14.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.7,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 61,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 21.33,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 21.33,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.08,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 13.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.52,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.52,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.52 \u00b7 Away xG 1.08 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +13%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.1,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +9.1%",
"steam_team": "Z\u0105bkovia Z\u0105bki",
"suppress_execution": true,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market favour the same side (\u0141om\u017ca), but pricing still diverges by 21.3 pp.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 21.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 21.3,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (\u0141om\u017ca), but pricing still diverges by 21.3 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 21.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 21.3,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (\u0141om\u017ca), but pricing still diverges by 21.3 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3209,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3568,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 39,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates \u0141om\u017ca at 45.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies \u0141om\u017ca as the value side (45.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 16.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "\u0141om\u017ca",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side \u0141om\u017ca \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.90 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +36% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1569100 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.90 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +32.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +32.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "61 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "39 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+32.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (\u0141om\u017ca), but pricing still diverges by 21.3 pp.",
"Decision strength: 5.5/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +36% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 61,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0448,
"consensus_ev_display": "+4.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.96,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2982,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4584,
"raw_edge_display": "+16.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33783783783783783,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3569,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+35.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 12.6,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.44"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.44
}
}
},
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: \u0141om\u017ca 1.52 xG vs Z\u0105bkovia Z\u0105bki 1.08 \u2192 \u0141om\u017ca 45.8%",
"Market: Z\u0105bkovia Z\u0105bki ~29.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Z\u0105bkovia Z\u0105bki odds \u2191 +9.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans \u0141om\u017ca, but market pricing diverges by 21 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 16.0,
"fair_prob": 45.82,
"label": "\u0141om\u017ca",
"market_prob": 29.82,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.33,
"fair_prob": 28.81,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.48,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -21.33,
"fair_prob": 25.37,
"label": "Z\u0105bkovia Z\u0105bki",
"market_prob": 46.7,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -15.13,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 63.33,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 15.13,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 36.67,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.19,
"fair_prob": 53.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 65.39,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.19,
"fair_prob": 46.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 34.61,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -21.33,
"fair_prob_pct": 25.37,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Z\u0105bkovia Z\u0105bki",
"market_prob_pct": 46.7,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Z\u0105bkovia Z\u0105bki"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Z\u0105bkovia Z\u0105bki\u0027s win probability at 46.7%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 25.4%, a difference of 21.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 21.33,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "\u0141om\u017ca",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 29.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+16.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 16.0,
"model_prob_pct": 45.8,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+16.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 16.0,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 61,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "\u0141om\u017ca \u2014 market direction supports the model, but pricing still diverges (+16.0 pp).",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: \u0141om\u017ca 1.52 xG vs Z\u0105bkovia Z\u0105bki 1.08 \u2192 \u0141om\u017ca 45.8%",
"Market: Z\u0105bkovia Z\u0105bki ~29.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Z\u0105bkovia Z\u0105bki odds \u2191 +9.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans \u0141om\u017ca, but market pricing diverges by 21 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -21.33,
"hero_label": "Z\u0105bkovia Z\u0105bki",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Z\u0105bkovia Z\u0105bki odds lengthened \u2191 +9.1%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 21.33,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 17.0 pp (at 45.8%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 17.0,
"max_prob_pct": 45.8,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "extreme",
"largest_gap_label": "Z\u0105bkovia Z\u0105bki",
"largest_gap_pp": -21.3,
"lead": "The closing market prices Z\u0105bkovia Z\u0105bki higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "extreme",
"max_gap_pp": 21.3,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 16.0,
"edge_pp": 16.0,
"fair_prob_pct": 45.82,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "\u0141om\u017ca",
"market_prob_pct": 29.82,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.33,
"edge_pp": 5.33,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.81,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.48,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -21.33,
"edge_pp": -21.33,
"fair_prob_pct": 25.37,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Z\u0105bkovia Z\u0105bki",
"market_prob_pct": 46.7,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Z\u0105bkovia Z\u0105bki (29.8%).",
"Z\u0105bkovia Z\u0105bki odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +9.1%, 4/7) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 \u0141om\u017ca, Market \u2192 Z\u0105bkovia Z\u0105bki, while Z\u0105bkovia Z\u0105bki odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 52.91,
"closing_odds": 1.89,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 52.91,
"entry_odds": 1.89,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 4,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +19.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 19.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.1
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "4/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.4,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +9.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 9.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 13h 44m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Z\u0105bkovia Z\u0105bki (9.1%, 4/7) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.40",
"2.15",
"1.89"
],
"display": "2.40 \u2192 1.93 \u2192 2.40",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 13h 44m",
"pick_team": "Z\u0105bkovia Z\u0105bki",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.40"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.93"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.40"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.2,
1.89,
2.4
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,7.1 28.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.20"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "1.89"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.40"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.40"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.2,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Z\u0105bkovia Z\u0105bki",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.4,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +9.1%",
"open_odds": 2.2,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Z\u0105bkovia Z\u0105bki",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 43,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/7",
"current_odds": 2.4,
"move_display": "\u2191 +9.1%",
"open_odds": 2.2,
"pick_team": "Z\u0105bkovia Z\u0105bki",
"steam_score": 43,
"steam_team_name": "Z\u0105bkovia Z\u0105bki",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 21.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "zabkovia-zabki",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Z\u0105bkovia Z\u0105bki",
"away_team_id": 26179,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/26179.webp",
"away_team_name": "Z\u0105bkovia Z\u0105bki",
"away_team_public_id": "3W8ytQqRECuxQ7",
"away_team_slug": "zabkovia-zabki",
"country_code": "PL",
"country_display_name": "Poland",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/pl.svg",
"country_id": 128,
"country_name": "Poland",
"fixture_id": 1569100,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Poland",
"home_team_display_name": "\u0141om\u017ca",
"home_team_id": 21656,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/21656.webp",
"home_team_name": "\u0141om\u017ca",
"home_team_public_id": "0m4LWufBZkHiMr",
"home_team_slug": "omza",
"ht.home_team_slug": "omza",
"league_country": "Poland",
"league_country_display": "Poland",
"league_display_name": "III liga \u2013 Group 1",
"league_id": 780,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/780.webp",
"league_name": "III liga \u2013 Group 1",
"league_public_id": "4SPrtfKVV3K4DA",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-18 14:00:00",
"public_id": "3tk9l0eaz8eAep",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Lomza",
"venue_name": "Stadion Miejski w Lomzy"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4079,
"best_odd": 1.89,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0871,
"ev": -0.2818,
"implied_prob": 0.467,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.467,
"draw": 0.2348,
"home": 0.2982
},
"model_prob": 0.2536,
"p_final": 0.38
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2761,
"best_odd": 3.76,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0147,
"ev": -0.0621,
"implied_prob": 0.2348,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.467,
"draw": 0.2348,
"home": 0.2982
},
"model_prob": 0.288,
"p_final": 0.2495
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3419,
"best_odd": 2.96,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0548,
"ev": 0.0448,
"implied_prob": 0.2982,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.467,
"draw": 0.2348,
"home": 0.2982
},
"model_prob": 0.4584,
"p_final": 0.353
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.89,
"edge": -0.2755,
"ev": -0.5206,
"implied_prob": 0.5291,
"model_prob": 0.2536
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.76,
"edge": 0.022,
"ev": 0.0828,
"implied_prob": 0.266,
"model_prob": 0.288
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.96,
"edge": 0.1206,
"ev": 0.3568,
"implied_prob": 0.3378,
"model_prob": 0.4584
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1472,
"alpha_yes": 0.2024,
"best_no_odd": 2.7,
"best_yes_odd": 1.4,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1219,
"edge_yes": -0.1219,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2636,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0379,
"ev_yes": -0.2552,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1196,
"implied_no": 0.3461,
"implied_yes": 0.6539,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1472,
"best_odd": 2.64,
"edge": 0.0179,
"ev": -0.0379,
"implied_prob": 0.3465,
"model_prob": 0.468,
"p_final": 0.3644
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2024,
"best_odd": 1.4,
"edge": -0.0246,
"ev": -0.1196,
"implied_prob": 0.6535,
"model_prob": 0.532,
"p_final": 0.6289
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.3644,
"p_final_yes": 0.6289,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1903,
"alpha_under": 0.1384,
"best_over_odd": 1.5,
"best_under_odd": 2.55,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.425,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.49,
"edge_over": -0.1513,
"edge_under": 0.1513,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.277,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1354,
"ev_under": 0.3209,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0406,
"implied_over": 0.6333,
"implied_over_mf": 0.636,
"implied_under": 0.3667,
"implied_under_mf": 0.364,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1903,
"best_odd": 1.425,
"edge": -0.0293,
"ev": -0.1354,
"implied_prob": 0.636,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6067
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1384,
"best_odd": 2.49,
"edge": 0.0213,
"ev": -0.0406,
"implied_prob": 0.364,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3853
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6067,
"p_final_under": 0.3853,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3209,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3568,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3209,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"guard_capped": true,
"score": 5.5,
"score_before_guard": 6.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 3.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 5.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 5.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 5.0
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "wait",
"final_decision": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 21.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 21.3,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (\u0141om\u017ca), but pricing still diverges by 21.3 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3209,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3568,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 39,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates \u0141om\u017ca at 45.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies \u0141om\u017ca as the value side (45.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 16.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "\u0141om\u017ca",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side \u0141om\u017ca \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.90 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +36% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1569100 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.90 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +32.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +32.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "61 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "39 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+32.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (\u0141om\u017ca), but pricing still diverges by 21.3 pp.",
"Decision strength: 5.5/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +36% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 61,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0448,
"consensus_ev_display": "+4.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.96,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2982,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4584,
"raw_edge_display": "+16.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33783783783783783,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3569,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+35.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 12.6,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.44"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.44
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.532,
"draw_prob": 0.288,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4584,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.44
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"guard_active": true,
"guard_level": "extreme",
"guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
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"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0548,
"ev": 0.0448,
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"implied_prob": 0.2982,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4584,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "\u0141om\u017ca"
},
"btts": {
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"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
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"edge": 0.0179,
"ev": -0.0379,
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0379,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
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"edge": -0.0246,
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},
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"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
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"over": {
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},
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},
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"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1569100,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
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"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
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},
"match_tier": "value_game",
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"probabilities": {
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},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
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"risk_band": "strong",
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"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
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"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
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"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Z\u0105bkovia Z\u0105bki",
"home": "\u0141om\u017ca"
},
"top_pick": {
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"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2636,
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"market": "btts",
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"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
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"side": "no",
"slot": "primary",
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},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
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"consensus_ev_display": "+4.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.96,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2982,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4584,
"raw_edge_display": "+16.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33783783783783783,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3569,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+35.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1569100,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-18T14:00:19.920038+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Đăng ký ngay
III liga – Group 1 — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Weszło | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 25 |
| 2 | Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 |
| 3 | Wigry Suwałki | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 19 |
| 4 | Pelikan Łowicz | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19 |
| 5 | Wisła Płock II | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 18 |
| 6 | Swit | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 7 | Ząbkovia Ząbki | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 8 | Jagiellonia II | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 9 | Warta Sieradz | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 10 | Widzew II | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 11 | Lechia T. Mazowiecki | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 12 | Olimpia Zambrów | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 13 | ŁKS Łódź II | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 14 | Olimpia Elbląg | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 15 | Mławianka Mława | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 16 | Troszyn | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 17 | Polonia Lidzbark Warm. | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 |
| 18 | Łomża | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki | 10 | 26 | 17 | +9 | 20 |
| 2 | Weszło | 9 | 22 | 6 | +16 | 25 |
| 3 | Wisła Płock II | 10 | 22 | 17 | +5 | 18 |
| 4 | Jagiellonia II | 10 | 22 | 20 | +2 | 15 |
| 5 | Widzew II | 9 | 20 | 17 | +3 | 13 |
| 6 | Lechia T. Mazowiecki | 10 | 20 | 21 | -1 | 13 |
| 7 | Olimpia Zambrów | 10 | 20 | 26 | -6 | 11 |
| 8 | Mławianka Mława | 10 | 20 | 28 | -8 | 10 |
| 9 | Ząbkovia Ząbki | 10 | 19 | 18 | +1 | 16 |
| 10 | Wigry Suwałki | 10 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 19 |
| 11 | Warta Sieradz | 9 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 14 |
| 12 | Swit | 10 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 17 |
| 13 | Pelikan Łowicz | 10 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 19 |
| 14 | ŁKS Łódź II | 9 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 10 |
| 15 | Olimpia Elbląg | 10 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 10 |
| 16 | Polonia Lidzbark Warm. | 9 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 5 |
| 17 | Troszyn | 9 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 6 |
| 18 | Łomża | 10 | 10 | 23 | -13 | 3 |
