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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (0 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Không ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Victoria Września Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Gedania Gdańsk 0–0 Victoria Września
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "1f63e878f6796b4fccdeee644f88d81c2d3d2a5f4e4b5309d8beb22772ededff",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.37,
"away_win_prob": 0.3849,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.456,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2957,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.6,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.13,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.23,
"home_win_prob": 0.3194,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Winner : Gedania Gda\u0144sk and +1.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Gedania Gda\u0144sk"
},
"away_xg": 1.37,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Victoria Wrze\u015bnia",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.1035,
"edge_gap": 0.0651,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.2811,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 38.5,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 32.0
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 3.16
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 3.16,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Victoria Wrze\u015bnia Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 3.56,
"market_odds": 3.16,
"model_odds": 2.6,
"overround": 12.6,
"prob_edge": 6.8,
"value_pct": 21.5,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 1,
"away_failed_to_score": 3,
"away_played": 10,
"away_score_rate": 74.6,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 10,
"home_score_rate": 70.8,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.37,
"home_expected": 1.23,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.7
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Gedania Gda\u0144sk or Draw",
"prob": 61.5
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Gedania Gda\u0144sk or Victoria Wrze\u015bnia",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Victoria Wrze\u015bnia",
"prob": 68.1
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Gedania Gda\u0144sk or Victoria Wrze\u015bnia",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 38.5,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 31.9,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Victoria Wrze\u015bnia"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "+1.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.1,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 2.3,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 21.7,
"implied_prob": 31.6,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Victoria Wrze\u015bnia Win",
"model_prob": 38.5,
"odds": 3.16
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Victoria Wrze\u015bnia",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 28.11,
"draw": 25.38,
"home": 46.51
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-03 09:59:43",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-03 09:30:22",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Gedania Gda\u0144sk",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 46.51,
"gap_pp": -14.56,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 31.95
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.38,
"gap_pp": 4.21,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.59
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.11,
"gap_pp": 10.35,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 38.46
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 62.56,
"gap_pp": -14.36,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 37.44,
"gap_pp": 14.36,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.91,
"early": 1.91,
"implied_closing_pct": 46.51,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 46.51,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.5,
"early": 3.5,
"implied_closing_pct": 25.38,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 25.38,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.16,
"early": 3.16,
"implied_closing_pct": 28.11,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 28.11,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.46,
"early": 1.46,
"implied_closing_pct": 62.56,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 62.56,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.44,
"early": 2.44,
"implied_closing_pct": 37.44,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 37.44,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 14.4,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 2.0,
"ev": 0.1875,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 9.5,
"market_prob": 0.1053,
"market_prob_pct": 10.5,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.7
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.23,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1453,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.35,
"edge": 0.0187,
"edge_pp": 1.9,
"market_prob": 0.3896,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1998,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0257,
"ev": -0.1229,
"implied_prob": 0.6104,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5847
},
"p_final": 0.4083,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2173,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0406,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1453,
"best_odd": 2.35,
"edge": 0.0187,
"ev": -0.0406,
"implied_prob": 0.3896,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4083
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2433,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -24.3,
"text": "-24.3%"
},
"ev_under": 0.2898,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 29.0,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.2898,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10410.82,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.156,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.5,
"edge": 0.0139,
"edge_pp": 1.4,
"market_prob": 0.3671,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.156,
"best_odd": 2.5,
"edge": 0.0139,
"ev": -0.0476,
"implied_prob": 0.3671,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.381
},
"p_final": 0.381,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.14,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0476,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2145,
"best_odd": 1.45,
"edge": -0.0191,
"ev": -0.1099,
"implied_prob": 0.6329,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.6138
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1856,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 18.6,
"text": "+18.6%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.2112,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -21.1,
"text": "-21.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1856,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"sort_key": 10167.04,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Victoria Wrze\u015bnia, but the model still strongly favours Victoria Wrze\u015bnia.",
"consensus_odds": 3.16,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0288,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.9,
"text": "-2.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2811,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0288,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.9,
"text": "-2.9%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2153,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+21.5%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Victoria Wrze\u015bnia",
"sort_key": 1792.8,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "4/6",
"alert_breadth_note": "4/6 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +6.7%",
"alert_team": "Victoria Wrze\u015bnia",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 14.6,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -14.57,
"hero_label": "Gedania Gda\u0144sk",
"market_prob_pct": 28.1,
"market_team": "Gedania Gda\u0144sk",
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"model_team": "Victoria Wrze\u015bnia",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 44,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 14.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Victoria Wrze\u015bnia, but the model still strongly favours Victoria Wrze\u015bnia."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 14.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Victoria Wrze\u015bnia, but the model still strongly favours Victoria Wrze\u015bnia."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2898,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2898,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Victoria Wrze\u015bnia at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Victoria Wrze\u015bnia as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Victoria Wrze\u015bnia, but the model still strongly favours Victoria Wrze\u015bnia.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Victoria Wrze\u015bnia",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +29.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +29.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +29.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+29.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Victoria Wrze\u015bnia, but the model still strongly favours Victoria Wrze\u015bnia.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 55,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Victoria Wrze\u015bnia, but the model still strongly favours Victoria Wrze\u015bnia.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0288,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.16,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2811,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3164556962025316,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2153,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+21.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "4/6",
"breadth_ratio": 0.6666666666666666,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (15 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 17.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.7,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 55,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 14.57,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 14.57,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.37,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.23,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.37,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.23 \u00b7 Away xG 1.37 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.7,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +6.7%",
"steam_team": "Victoria Wrze\u015bnia",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 16,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 16,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Victoria Wrze\u015bnia, but the model still strongly favours Victoria Wrze\u015bnia.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 14.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Victoria Wrze\u015bnia, but the model still strongly favours Victoria Wrze\u015bnia."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 14.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Victoria Wrze\u015bnia, but the model still strongly favours Victoria Wrze\u015bnia."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2898,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2898,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Victoria Wrze\u015bnia at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Victoria Wrze\u015bnia as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Victoria Wrze\u015bnia, but the model still strongly favours Victoria Wrze\u015bnia.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Victoria Wrze\u015bnia",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +29.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +29.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +29.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+29.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Victoria Wrze\u015bnia, but the model still strongly favours Victoria Wrze\u015bnia.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 55,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Victoria Wrze\u015bnia, but the model still strongly favours Victoria Wrze\u015bnia.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0288,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.16,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2811,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3164556962025316,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2153,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+21.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Victoria Wrze\u015bnia, but the model still strongly favours Victoria Wrze\u015bnia.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Gedania Gda\u0144sk 1.23 xG vs Victoria Wrze\u015bnia 1.37 \u2192 Victoria Wrze\u015bnia 38.5%",
"Market: Gedania Gda\u0144sk ~28.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Victoria Wrze\u015bnia odds \u2191 +6.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Victoria Wrze\u015bnia, but the market has moved away from Victoria Wrze\u015bnia.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -14.57,
"fair_prob": 31.94,
"label": "Gedania Gda\u0144sk",
"market_prob": 46.51,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.19,
"fair_prob": 29.57,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.38,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.38,
"fair_prob": 38.49,
"label": "Victoria Wrze\u015bnia",
"market_prob": 28.11,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.59,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 60.79,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.59,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 39.21,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.07,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 63.47,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.07,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 36.53,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -14.57,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.94,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Gedania Gda\u0144sk",
"market_prob_pct": 46.51,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Victoria Wrze\u015bnia"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Gedania Gda\u0144sk\u0027s win probability at 46.5%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 31.9%, a difference of 14.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 14.57,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Victoria Wrze\u015bnia",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 28.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+10.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 10.4,
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+10.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 10.4,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 55,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Victoria Wrze\u015bnia, but the model still strongly favours Victoria Wrze\u015bnia. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 16,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 16,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Gedania Gda\u0144sk 1.23 xG vs Victoria Wrze\u015bnia 1.37 \u2192 Victoria Wrze\u015bnia 38.5%",
"Market: Gedania Gda\u0144sk ~28.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Victoria Wrze\u015bnia odds \u2191 +6.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Victoria Wrze\u015bnia, but the market has moved away from Victoria Wrze\u015bnia.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -14.57,
"hero_label": "Gedania Gda\u0144sk",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Victoria Wrze\u015bnia odds lengthened \u2191 +6.7%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, Victoria Wrze\u015bnia has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Gedania Gda\u0144sk than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from Victoria Wrze\u015bnia \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.7% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Gedania Gda\u0144sk than the current fair estimate.",
"However, Victoria Wrze\u015bnia has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Victoria Wrze\u015bnia \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.7% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Gedania Gda\u0144sk more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Victoria Wrze\u015bnia has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.7%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 14.57,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 6.6 pp (at 38.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 6.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Gedania Gda\u0144sk",
"largest_gap_pp": -14.6,
"lead": "The closing market prices Gedania Gda\u0144sk higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 14.6,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -14.57,
"edge_pp": -14.57,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.94,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Gedania Gda\u0144sk",
"market_prob_pct": 46.51,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.19,
"edge_pp": 4.19,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.57,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.38,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 10.38,
"edge_pp": 10.38,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.49,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Victoria Wrze\u015bnia",
"market_prob_pct": 28.11,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Victoria Wrze\u015bnia \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.7% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Gedania Gda\u0144sk (28.1%).",
"Victoria Wrze\u015bnia odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +6.7%, 4/6) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Victoria Wrze\u015bnia, Market \u2192 Gedania Gda\u0144sk, while Victoria Wrze\u015bnia odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 52.36,
"closing_odds": 1.91,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 52.36,
"entry_odds": 1.91,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 4,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.3
}
],
"books_total": 6,
"breadth_display": "4/6",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.88,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 6.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 13h 47m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Victoria Wrze\u015bnia (6.7%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.16",
"2.93",
"2.70"
],
"display": "3.16 \u2192 2.70 \u2192 2.88",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 13h 47m",
"pick_team": "Victoria Wrze\u015bnia",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.16"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.70"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.88"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.7,
3.16,
2.88
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,11.0",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.70"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.70"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.16"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.88"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.7,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Victoria Wrze\u015bnia",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.88,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.7%",
"open_odds": 2.7,
"summary": "Market moved away from Victoria Wrze\u015bnia while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Victoria Wrze\u015bnia",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 44,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/6",
"current_odds": 2.88,
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.7%",
"open_odds": 2.7,
"pick_team": "Victoria Wrze\u015bnia",
"steam_score": 44,
"steam_team_name": "Victoria Wrze\u015bnia",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 14.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "victoria-wrzesnia",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Victoria Wrze\u015bnia",
"away_team_id": 19723,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/19723.webp",
"away_team_name": "Victoria Wrze\u015bnia",
"away_team_public_id": "2XmwvrutgtL17p",
"away_team_slug": "victoria-wrzesnia",
"country_code": "PL",
"country_display_name": "Poland",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/pl.svg",
"country_id": 128,
"country_name": "Poland",
"fixture_id": 1568813,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Poland",
"home_team_display_name": "Gedania Gda\u0144sk",
"home_team_id": 18385,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/18385.webp",
"home_team_name": "Gedania Gda\u0144sk",
"home_team_public_id": "2A8pll0HFCXNX6",
"home_team_slug": "gedania-gdansk",
"ht.home_team_slug": "gedania-gdansk",
"league_country": "Poland",
"league_country_display": "Poland",
"league_display_name": "III liga \u2013 Group 2",
"league_id": 781,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/781.webp",
"league_name": "III liga \u2013 Group 2",
"league_public_id": "3zSCpGHchE7TXd",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-03 10:00:00",
"public_id": "5Cmi5igdc8WZpE",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2534,
"best_odd": 3.16,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0262,
"ev": -0.0288,
"implied_prob": 0.2811,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2811,
"draw": 0.2538,
"home": 0.4651
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"p_final": 0.3073
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2811,
"best_odd": 3.5,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0118,
"ev": -0.0703,
"implied_prob": 0.2538,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2811,
"draw": 0.2538,
"home": 0.4651
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.2656
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.469,
"best_odd": 1.91,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0683,
"ev": -0.2421,
"implied_prob": 0.4651,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2811,
"draw": 0.2538,
"home": 0.4651
},
"model_prob": 0.3195,
"p_final": 0.3968
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.16,
"edge": 0.0682,
"ev": 0.2154,
"implied_prob": 0.3165,
"model_prob": 0.3846
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.5,
"edge": 0.0102,
"ev": 0.0355,
"implied_prob": 0.2857,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.91,
"edge": -0.2041,
"ev": -0.3898,
"implied_prob": 0.5236,
"model_prob": 0.3195
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.156,
"alpha_yes": 0.2145,
"best_no_odd": 2.6,
"best_yes_odd": 1.45,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0907,
"edge_yes": -0.0907,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1856,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0476,
"ev_yes": -0.2112,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1099,
"implied_no": 0.3653,
"implied_yes": 0.6347,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.156,
"best_odd": 2.5,
"edge": 0.0139,
"ev": -0.0476,
"implied_prob": 0.3671,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.381
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2145,
"best_odd": 1.45,
"edge": -0.0191,
"ev": -0.1099,
"implied_prob": 0.6329,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.6138
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.381,
"p_final_yes": 0.6138,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1998,
"alpha_under": 0.1453,
"best_over_odd": 1.57,
"best_under_odd": 2.49,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.5,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.35,
"edge_over": -0.1259,
"edge_under": 0.1259,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2433,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1229,
"ev_under": 0.2898,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0406,
"implied_over": 0.6079,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6104,
"implied_under": 0.3921,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3896,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1998,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0257,
"ev": -0.1229,
"implied_prob": 0.6104,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5847
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1453,
"best_odd": 2.35,
"edge": 0.0187,
"ev": -0.0406,
"implied_prob": 0.3896,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4083
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5847,
"p_final_under": 0.4083,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2898,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2898,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2898,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.8
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 14.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Victoria Wrze\u015bnia, but the model still strongly favours Victoria Wrze\u015bnia."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2898,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2898,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Victoria Wrze\u015bnia at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Victoria Wrze\u015bnia as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Victoria Wrze\u015bnia, but the model still strongly favours Victoria Wrze\u015bnia.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Victoria Wrze\u015bnia",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +29.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +29.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +29.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+29.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Victoria Wrze\u015bnia, but the model still strongly favours Victoria Wrze\u015bnia.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 55,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Victoria Wrze\u015bnia, but the model still strongly favours Victoria Wrze\u015bnia.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0288,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.16,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2811,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3164556962025316,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2153,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+21.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
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],
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"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
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},
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},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
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"side": "away",
"side_label": "Victoria Wrze\u015bnia"
},
"btts": {
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"edge": 0.0139,
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},
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"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
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"edge": 0.0187,
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"over": {
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},
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},
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},
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"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1568813,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2898,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
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"probabilities": {
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},
"reason_codes": [
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],
"secondary_pick": {
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"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
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{
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"market": "btts",
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"not_dominant": true,
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"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
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"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Victoria Wrze\u015bnia",
"home": "Gedania Gda\u0144sk"
},
"top_pick": {
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"ev": 0.2898,
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"market": "ou_2_5",
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"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
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},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
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"consensus_ev_display": "-2.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.16,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2811,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3164556962025316,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2153,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+21.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1568813,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-03T09:59:46.394144+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Gedania Gdańsk & Victoria Września!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
III liga – Group 2 — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Polonia Środa | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 27 |
| 2 | Luzino | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 25 |
| 3 | Kluczevia Stargard | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19 |
| 4 | Stargard Szczeciński | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 5 | Wda Świecie | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 18 |
| 6 | Kalisz | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 17 |
| 7 | Lech Poznań II | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 8 | Bałtyk Koszalin | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| 9 | Flota Świnoujście | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 10 | Unia Swarzędz | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 13 |
| 11 | Grom Nowy Staw | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 13 |
| 12 | Noteć Czarnków | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 13 | Chemik Bydgoszcz | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 12 |
| 14 | Gedania Gdańsk | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 11 |
| 15 | Elana Toruń | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 10 |
| 16 | Kotwica Kórnik | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 10 |
| 17 | Victoria Września | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 8 |
| 18 | Lipno Stęszew | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 5 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Polonia Środa | 11 | 33 | 16 | +17 | 27 |
| 2 | Luzino | 11 | 31 | 13 | +18 | 25 |
| 3 | Grom Nowy Staw | 11 | 28 | 28 | 0 | 13 |
| 4 | Stargard Szczeciński | 11 | 27 | 19 | +8 | 18 |
| 5 | Gedania Gdańsk | 11 | 23 | 24 | -1 | 11 |
| 6 | Unia Swarzędz | 11 | 20 | 19 | +1 | 13 |
| 7 | Kluczevia Stargard | 10 | 19 | 16 | +3 | 19 |
| 8 | Kotwica Kórnik | 11 | 18 | 32 | -14 | 10 |
| 9 | Lech Poznań II | 9 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 15 |
| 10 | Chemik Bydgoszcz | 11 | 17 | 21 | -4 | 12 |
| 11 | Kalisz | 11 | 16 | 15 | +1 | 17 |
| 12 | Elana Toruń | 11 | 16 | 22 | -6 | 10 |
| 13 | Wda Świecie | 10 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 18 |
| 14 | Bałtyk Koszalin | 11 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 15 |
| 15 | Noteć Czarnków | 10 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 13 |
| 16 | Flota Świnoujście | 10 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 14 |
| 17 | Victoria Września | 11 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 8 |
| 18 | Lipno Stęszew | 11 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 5 |
