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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (6 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Stargard Szczeciński Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-3 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.9
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · Chemik Bydgoszcz 3–3 Stargard Szczeciński
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "aa804a13694899ce79c5ff570478b188e69f7ebd6b3b80bfa70c5db8254e43e3",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.33,
"away_win_prob": 0.3659,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2964,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.73,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.96,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.27,
"home_win_prob": 0.3377,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "50%",
"percent_draw": "50%",
"percent_home": "0%",
"winner_name": "Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski"
},
"away_xg": 1.33,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.1014,
"edge_gap": 0.0284,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4674,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 36.6,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 33.8
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.9
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.9,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.14,
"market_odds": 1.9,
"model_odds": 2.73,
"overround": 12.6,
"prob_edge": -16.0,
"value_pct": -30.4,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 1,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 9,
"away_score_rate": 73.6,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 8,
"home_score_rate": 71.9,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.33,
"home_expected": 1.27,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Chemik Bydgoszcz or Draw",
"prob": 63.4
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Chemik Bydgoszcz or Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski",
"prob": 66.2
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Chemik Bydgoszcz or Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 36.6,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 33.8,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 2.1,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.3,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 6.8,
"implied_prob": 31.6,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Chemik Bydgoszcz Win",
"model_prob": 33.8,
"odds": 3.16
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 46.74,
"draw": 25.16,
"home": 28.1
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 15:00:23",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 14:32:13",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Chemik Bydgoszcz",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.1,
"gap_pp": 5.65,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 33.75
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.16,
"gap_pp": 4.49,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.65
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 46.74,
"gap_pp": -10.14,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 36.6
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 62.31,
"gap_pp": -14.11,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 37.69,
"gap_pp": 14.11,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 3.16,
"early": 3.16,
"implied_closing_pct": 28.1,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 28.1,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.53,
"early": 3.53,
"implied_closing_pct": 25.16,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 25.16,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 1.9,
"early": 1.9,
"implied_closing_pct": 46.74,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 46.74,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.47,
"early": 1.47,
"implied_closing_pct": 62.31,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 62.31,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.43,
"early": 2.43,
"implied_closing_pct": 37.69,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 37.69,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 14.1,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 0.0,
"ev": 0.0,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 8.0,
"market_prob": 0.125,
"market_prob_pct": 12.5,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.27,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1432,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0195,
"edge_pp": 2.0,
"market_prob": 0.3818,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1969,
"best_odd": 1.47,
"edge": -0.0268,
"ev": -0.1307,
"implied_prob": 0.6182,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5914
},
"p_final": 0.4013,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2328,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0448,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1432,
"best_odd": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0195,
"ev": -0.0448,
"implied_prob": 0.3818,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4013
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2625,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -26.2,
"text": "-26.2%"
},
"ev_under": 0.2587,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 25.9,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.2587,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10382.83,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1542,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.55,
"edge": 0.0148,
"edge_pp": 1.5,
"market_prob": 0.3593,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1542,
"best_odd": 2.55,
"edge": 0.0148,
"ev": -0.0462,
"implied_prob": 0.3593,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3741
},
"p_final": 0.3741,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1603,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0462,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.212,
"best_odd": 1.43,
"edge": -0.0203,
"ev": -0.1128,
"implied_prob": 0.6407,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6204
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1648,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 16.5,
"text": "+16.5%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.2152,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -21.5,
"text": "-21.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1648,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10148.32,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski).",
"consensus_odds": 1.9,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.21,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -21.0,
"text": "-21.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4674,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0629,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -6.3,
"text": "-6.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.1,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3046,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-30.5%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski",
"sort_key": 1784.275,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 10.2,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.15,
"hero_label": "Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski",
"market_prob_pct": 46.7,
"market_team": "Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski",
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"model_team": "Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2587,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2587,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 51,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +25.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +25.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +25.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+25.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski).",
"Decision strength: 4.7/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.21,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.9,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4674,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5263157894736842,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3046,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-30.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "5/6",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8333333333333334,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (10 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.3,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 64,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 10.15,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 10.15,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.33,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.27,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.33,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.27 \u00b7 Away xG 1.33 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Chemik Bydgoszcz",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2587,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2587,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 51,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +25.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +25.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +25.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+25.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski).",
"Decision strength: 4.7/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.21,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.9,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4674,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5263157894736842,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3046,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-30.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski).",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Chemik Bydgoszcz 1.27 xG vs Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski 1.33 \u2192 Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski 36.6%",
"Market: Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski ~46.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Chemik Bydgoszcz +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 5.67,
"fair_prob": 33.77,
"label": "Chemik Bydgoszcz",
"market_prob": 28.1,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.48,
"fair_prob": 29.64,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.16,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.15,
"fair_prob": 36.59,
"label": "Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski",
"market_prob": 46.74,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.32,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 61.52,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.32,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 38.48,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.4,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 63.9,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.4,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 36.1,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -10.15,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski",
"market_prob_pct": 46.74,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Chemik Bydgoszcz"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski\u0027s win probability at 46.7%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 36.6%, a difference of 10.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 10.15,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 46.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-10.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -10.1,
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-10.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -10.1,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 64,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Chemik Bydgoszcz 1.27 xG vs Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski 1.33 \u2192 Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski 36.6%",
"Market: Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski ~46.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Chemik Bydgoszcz +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.15,
"hero_label": "Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "Current market behavior suggests broad agreement that Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski is the dominant side.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski than the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski than the current fair estimate.",
"Current market behavior suggests broad agreement that Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski is the dominant side."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"Pricing has been stable with broad sportsbook participation, suggesting settled consensus.",
"The market materially disagrees with the model on Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski (pricing gap 10.2 pp). The market may be pricing squad quality, tournament context, or lineup strength beyond the Elo framework."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 10.15,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.8,
"max_prob_pct": 36.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski",
"largest_gap_pp": -10.2,
"lead": "The closing market prices Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 10.2,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 5.67,
"edge_pp": 5.67,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Chemik Bydgoszcz",
"market_prob_pct": 28.1,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.48,
"edge_pp": 4.48,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.16,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -10.15,
"edge_pp": -10.15,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski",
"market_prob_pct": 46.74,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski than the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski (46.7%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski, Market \u2192 Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 52.63,
"closing_odds": 1.9,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 52.63,
"entry_odds": 1.9,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/6",
"current_odds": 3.0,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 3.0,
"pick_team": "Chemik Bydgoszcz",
"steam_score": 25,
"steam_team_name": "Chemik Bydgoszcz",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
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"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
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"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
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"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski",
"away_team_id": 6959,
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"away_team_name": "Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski",
"away_team_public_id": "3zMXcrcg8zWwRW",
"away_team_slug": "stargard-szczecinski",
"country_code": "PL",
"country_display_name": "Poland",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/pl.svg",
"country_id": 128,
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"home_team_display_name": "Chemik Bydgoszcz",
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"home_team_name": "Chemik Bydgoszcz",
"home_team_public_id": "58IMZJvT8g42kV",
"home_team_slug": "chemik-bydgoszcz",
"ht.home_team_slug": "chemik-bydgoszcz",
"league_country": "Poland",
"league_country_display": "Poland",
"league_display_name": "III liga \u2013 Group 2",
"league_id": 781,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/781.webp",
"league_name": "III liga \u2013 Group 2",
"league_public_id": "3zSCpGHchE7TXd",
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"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
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"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
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"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
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"alpha": 0.5087,
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"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0516,
"ev": -0.21,
"implied_prob": 0.4674,
"joint_probs": {
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"draw": 0.2516,
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},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"p_final": 0.4158
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2798,
"best_odd": 3.53,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0126,
"ev": -0.0676,
"implied_prob": 0.2516,
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"draw": 0.2516,
"home": 0.281
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
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},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2746,
"best_odd": 3.16,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0155,
"ev": -0.0629,
"implied_prob": 0.281,
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"away": 0.4674,
"draw": 0.2516,
"home": 0.281
},
"model_prob": 0.3375,
"p_final": 0.2965
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.9,
"edge": -0.1603,
"ev": -0.3046,
"implied_prob": 0.5263,
"model_prob": 0.366
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.53,
"edge": 0.0132,
"ev": 0.0466,
"implied_prob": 0.2833,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.16,
"edge": 0.0211,
"ev": 0.0666,
"implied_prob": 0.3165,
"model_prob": 0.3375
}
},
"btts": {
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"alpha_yes": 0.212,
"best_no_odd": 2.56,
"best_yes_odd": 1.44,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.094,
"edge_yes": -0.094,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1648,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0462,
"ev_yes": -0.2152,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1128,
"implied_no": 0.361,
"implied_yes": 0.639,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1542,
"best_odd": 2.55,
"edge": 0.0148,
"ev": -0.0462,
"implied_prob": 0.3593,
"model_prob": 0.455,
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},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
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"edge": -0.0203,
"ev": -0.1128,
"implied_prob": 0.6407,
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}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.3741,
"p_final_yes": 0.6204,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1969,
"alpha_under": 0.1432,
"best_over_odd": 1.53,
"best_under_odd": 2.43,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.47,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.38,
"edge_over": -0.1332,
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"ev_over": -0.2625,
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"implied_over": 0.6152,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6182,
"implied_under": 0.3848,
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"mode": "market_first_ou",
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"model_prob": 0.482,
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},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1432,
"best_odd": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0195,
"ev": -0.0448,
"implied_prob": 0.3818,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4013
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5914,
"p_final_under": 0.4013,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2587,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2587,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2587,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.7
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2587,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2587,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 51,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +25.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +25.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +25.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+25.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski).",
"Decision strength: 4.7/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.21,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.9,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4674,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5263157894736842,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3046,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-30.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.366,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.9,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0516,
"ev": -0.21,
"implied_prob": 0.4674,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.366,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1542,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.55,
"edge": 0.0148,
"market_prob": 0.3593,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
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"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
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"edge": 0.0148,
"ev": -0.0462,
"implied_prob": 0.3593,
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"p_final": 0.3741
},
"p_final": 0.3741,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0462,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.212,
"best_odd": 1.43,
"edge": -0.0203,
"ev": -0.1128,
"implied_prob": 0.6407,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6204
}
},
"edge": 0.094,
"ev": 0.1648,
"implied_prob": 0.361,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1432,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0195,
"market_prob": 0.3818,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1969,
"best_odd": 1.47,
"edge": -0.0268,
"ev": -0.1307,
"implied_prob": 0.6182,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5914
},
"p_final": 0.4013,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0448,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1432,
"best_odd": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0195,
"ev": -0.0448,
"implied_prob": 0.3818,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4013
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1332,
"ev": 0.2587,
"implied_prob": 0.3848,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1568803,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2587,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.366,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.3375
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1648,
"implied_prob": 0.361,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1648,
"implied_prob": 0.361,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski",
"home": "Chemik Bydgoszcz"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.093805,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2587,
"implied_prob": 0.3848,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.21,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.9,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4674,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5263157894736842,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3046,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-30.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1568803,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T15:00:26.007461+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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III liga – Group 2 — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Polonia Środa | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 23 |
| 2 | Luzino | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 22 |
| 3 | Kluczevia Stargard | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 |
| 4 | Wda Świecie | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 5 | Lech Poznań II | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Kalisz | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | Stargard Szczeciński | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 8 | Flota Świnoujście | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 | Noteć Czarnków | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 10 | Gedania Gdańsk | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 11 | Grom Nowy Staw | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 12 | Kotwica Kórnik | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 13 | Bałtyk Koszalin | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 14 | Chemik Bydgoszcz | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| 15 | Unia Swarzędz | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 16 | Elana Toruń | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 17 | Victoria Września | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 18 | Lipno Stęszew | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luzino | 9 | 28 | 10 | +18 | 22 |
| 2 | Polonia Środa | 9 | 27 | 14 | +13 | 23 |
| 3 | Grom Nowy Staw | 9 | 24 | 24 | 0 | 10 |
| 4 | Gedania Gdańsk | 9 | 22 | 21 | +1 | 10 |
| 5 | Kluczevia Stargard | 9 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 19 |
| 6 | Stargard Szczeciński | 9 | 19 | 16 | +3 | 14 |
| 7 | Lech Poznań II | 9 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 15 |
| 8 | Kotwica Kórnik | 9 | 17 | 22 | -5 | 10 |
| 9 | Wda Świecie | 9 | 15 | 10 | +5 | 18 |
| 10 | Kalisz | 9 | 15 | 10 | +5 | 14 |
| 11 | Noteć Czarnków | 9 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 13 |
| 12 | Flota Świnoujście | 9 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 14 |
| 13 | Chemik Bydgoszcz | 9 | 13 | 18 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 | Unia Swarzędz | 9 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 7 |
| 15 | Elana Toruń | 9 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 6 |
| 16 | Lipno Stęszew | 9 | 10 | 21 | -11 | 4 |
| 17 | Victoria Września | 9 | 10 | 22 | -12 | 6 |
| 18 | Bałtyk Koszalin | 9 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 9 |
