Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (2 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Wisła Kraków II Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.95
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · Wisła Kraków II 1–1 Czarni Połaniec
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "ec11b6377b303b3a43738342cf245d17f0ee5d9aadac75ad7bb108959c2d79c1",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.24,
"away_win_prob": 0.3239,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.456,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.09,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.63,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.36,
"home_win_prob": 0.3801,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Czarni Po\u0142aniec",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Czarni Po\u0142aniec"
},
"away_xg": 1.24,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w II",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0749,
"edge_gap": 0.0566,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4553,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 32.4,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 38.0
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"odd": 1.95
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.95,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"display_market": "Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w II Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.2,
"market_odds": 1.95,
"model_odds": 2.63,
"overround": 12.6,
"prob_edge": -13.3,
"value_pct": -25.9,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 3,
"away_failed_to_score": 2,
"away_played": 8,
"away_score_rate": 71.1,
"home_clean_sheet": 2,
"home_failed_to_score": 3,
"home_played": 8,
"home_score_rate": 74.3,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.24,
"home_expected": 1.36,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.8
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w II or Draw",
"prob": 67.6
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w II or Czarni Po\u0142aniec",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Czarni Po\u0142aniec",
"prob": 62.0
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w II or Czarni Po\u0142aniec",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 32.4,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 38.0,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w II"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.8,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.1,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"edge": 15.4,
"implied_prob": 25.6,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.6,
"odds": 3.9
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Czarni Po\u0142aniec",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 31.71,
"draw": 22.76,
"home": 45.53
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Bet365",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-25 10:59:14",
"early_bookmaker": "Bet365",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-25 10:29:22",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w II",
"largest_move_kind": "1x2_h",
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.89,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 45.53,
"gap_pp": -7.49,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 38.03
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 22.76,
"gap_pp": 6.83,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.59
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 31.71,
"gap_pp": 0.66,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 32.37
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 64.53,
"gap_pp": -16.33,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 35.47,
"gap_pp": 16.33,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.95,
"early": 2.0,
"implied_closing_pct": 45.53,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.89,
"implied_early_pct": 44.64,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.9,
"early": 3.9,
"implied_closing_pct": 22.76,
"implied_delta_pp": -0.13,
"implied_early_pct": 22.89,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.8,
"early": 2.75,
"implied_closing_pct": 31.71,
"implied_delta_pp": -0.76,
"implied_early_pct": 32.47,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.44,
"early": 1.44,
"implied_closing_pct": 64.53,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 64.53,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.62,
"early": 2.62,
"implied_closing_pct": 35.47,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 35.47,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": false,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 16.3,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 1.4,
"ev": 0.125,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 9.0,
"market_prob": 0.1111,
"market_prob_pct": 11.1,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.1
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.8
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.36,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1321,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.68,
"edge": 0.0234,
"edge_pp": 2.3,
"market_prob": 0.3407,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1817,
"best_odd": 1.385,
"edge": -0.0322,
"ev": -0.1315,
"implied_prob": 0.6593,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6271
},
"p_final": 0.3641,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3882,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0241,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1321,
"best_odd": 2.68,
"edge": 0.0234,
"ev": -0.0241,
"implied_prob": 0.3407,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3641
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3059,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -30.6,
"text": "-30.6%"
},
"ev_under": 0.4245,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 42.4,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.4245,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10532.05,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1456,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.77,
"edge": 0.0186,
"edge_pp": 1.8,
"market_prob": 0.3285,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1456,
"best_odd": 2.77,
"edge": 0.0186,
"ev": -0.0387,
"implied_prob": 0.3285,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.347
},
"p_final": 0.347,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2631,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0387,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2002,
"best_odd": 1.355,
"edge": -0.0255,
"ev": -0.1247,
"implied_prob": 0.6715,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.646
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.3133,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 31.3,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_yes": -0.2384,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -23.8,
"text": "-23.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.3133,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"sort_key": 10281.97,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.19,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -19.0,
"text": "-19.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4553,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0405,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.0,
"text": "-4.0%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2584,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.8%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w II",
"sort_key": 1789.875,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "4/7",
"alert_breadth_note": "4/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +5.0%",
"alert_team": "Czarni Po\u0142aniec",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 7.5,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -7.52,
"hero_label": "Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w II",
"market_prob_pct": 45.5,
"market_team": "Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w II",
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"model_team": "Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w II",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 38,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w II)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w II)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4245,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4245,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w II at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 45.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w II as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w II",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +42.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +42.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+42.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w II).",
"Decision strength: 6.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.19,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4553,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5128205128205129,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2584,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "4/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5714285714285714,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.7,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 84,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 7.52,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.52,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.24,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.36,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.36,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.36 \u00b7 Away xG 1.24 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.0,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +5.0%",
"steam_team": "Czarni Po\u0142aniec",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 62,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 62,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w II).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w II)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w II)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4245,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4245,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w II at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 45.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w II as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w II",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +42.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +42.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+42.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w II).",
"Decision strength: 6.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.19,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4553,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5128205128205129,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2584,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w II 1.36 xG vs Czarni Po\u0142aniec 1.24 \u2192 Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w II 38.0%",
"Market: Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w II ~45.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Czarni Po\u0142aniec odds \u2191 +5.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w II with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -7.52,
"fair_prob": 38.01,
"label": "Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w II",
"market_prob": 45.53,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.83,
"fair_prob": 29.59,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 22.76,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.68,
"fair_prob": 32.39,
"label": "Czarni Po\u0142aniec",
"market_prob": 31.71,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -17.72,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 65.92,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 17.72,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 34.08,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.56,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 66.96,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.56,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 33.04,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -7.52,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w II",
"market_prob_pct": 45.53,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Czarni Po\u0142aniec"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w II\u0027s win probability at 45.5%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 38.0%, a difference of 7.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 7.52,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w II",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 45.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-7.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -7.5,
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-7.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -7.5,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 84,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w II \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 62,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 62,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w II 1.36 xG vs Czarni Po\u0142aniec 1.24 \u2192 Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w II 38.0%",
"Market: Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w II ~45.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Czarni Po\u0142aniec odds \u2191 +5.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w II with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -7.52,
"hero_label": "Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w II",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Czarni Po\u0142aniec odds lengthened \u2191 +5.0%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Czarni Po\u0142aniec has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w II. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Czarni Po\u0142aniec \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.0% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w II. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, Czarni Po\u0142aniec has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Czarni Po\u0142aniec \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.0% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w II above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Czarni Po\u0142aniec has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.0%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 7.52,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 5.6 pp (at 38.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 5.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w II",
"largest_gap_pp": -7.5,
"lead": "The closing market prices Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w II higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.5,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -7.52,
"edge_pp": -7.52,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w II",
"market_prob_pct": 45.53,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.83,
"edge_pp": 6.83,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 22.76,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.68,
"edge_pp": 0.68,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.39,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Czarni Po\u0142aniec",
"market_prob_pct": 31.71,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Czarni Po\u0142aniec \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.0% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w II (45.5%).",
"Czarni Po\u0142aniec odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +5.0%, 4/7) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w II \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 51.28,
"closing_odds": 1.95,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 51.28,
"entry_odds": 1.95,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 4,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.3
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "4/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.75,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 5.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 17h 39m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Czarni Po\u0142aniec (5.0%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.80",
"2.71",
"2.62"
],
"display": "2.92 \u2192 2.62 \u2192 2.75",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 17h 39m",
"pick_team": "Czarni Po\u0142aniec",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.92"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.62"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.75"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.62,
2.8,
2.75
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,5.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.62"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.62"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.80"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.75"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.62,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Czarni Po\u0142aniec",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.75,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.0%",
"open_odds": 2.62,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Czarni Po\u0142aniec",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 38,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/7",
"current_odds": 2.75,
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.0%",
"open_odds": 2.62,
"pick_team": "Czarni Po\u0142aniec",
"steam_score": 38,
"steam_team_name": "Czarni Po\u0142aniec",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 7.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "czarni-poaniec",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Czarni Po\u0142aniec",
"away_team_id": 17403,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/17403.webp",
"away_team_name": "Czarni Po\u0142aniec",
"away_team_public_id": "4nyN8pcoT3FMoH",
"away_team_slug": "czarni-poaniec",
"country_code": "PL",
"country_display_name": "Poland",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/pl.svg",
"country_id": 128,
"country_name": "Poland",
"fixture_id": 1568187,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Poland",
"home_team_display_name": "Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w II",
"home_team_id": 24324,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/24324.webp",
"home_team_name": "Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w II",
"home_team_public_id": "0tDDLDR8Jyg8Zs",
"home_team_slug": "wisa-krakow-ii",
"ht.home_team_slug": "wisa-krakow-ii",
"league_country": "Poland",
"league_country_display": "Poland",
"league_display_name": "III Liga - Group 4",
"league_id": 783,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/783.webp",
"league_name": "III Liga - Group 4",
"league_public_id": "0Webjq2gkya99L",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-25 11:00:00",
"public_id": "2as74bRkokfD5U",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4455,
"best_odd": 2.8,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.003,
"ev": -0.1039,
"implied_prob": 0.3171,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3171,
"draw": 0.2276,
"home": 0.4553
},
"model_prob": 0.3237,
"p_final": 0.32
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2693,
"best_odd": 3.9,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0184,
"ev": -0.0405,
"implied_prob": 0.2276,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3171,
"draw": 0.2276,
"home": 0.4553
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.246
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5325,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0399,
"ev": -0.19,
"implied_prob": 0.4553,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3171,
"draw": 0.2276,
"home": 0.4553
},
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"p_final": 0.4154
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.8,
"edge": -0.0334,
"ev": -0.0936,
"implied_prob": 0.3571,
"model_prob": 0.3237
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.9,
"edge": 0.0395,
"ev": 0.1542,
"implied_prob": 0.2564,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": -0.1325,
"ev": -0.2583,
"implied_prob": 0.5128,
"model_prob": 0.3803
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1456,
"alpha_yes": 0.2002,
"best_no_odd": 2.88,
"best_yes_odd": 1.4,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1256,
"edge_yes": -0.1256,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.3133,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0387,
"ev_yes": -0.2384,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1247,
"implied_no": 0.3304,
"implied_yes": 0.6696,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1456,
"best_odd": 2.77,
"edge": 0.0186,
"ev": -0.0387,
"implied_prob": 0.3285,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.347
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2002,
"best_odd": 1.355,
"edge": -0.0255,
"ev": -0.1247,
"implied_prob": 0.6715,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.646
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.347,
"p_final_yes": 0.646,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1817,
"alpha_under": 0.1321,
"best_over_odd": 1.44,
"best_under_odd": 2.75,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.385,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.68,
"edge_over": -0.1772,
"edge_under": 0.1772,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3059,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1315,
"ev_under": 0.4245,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0241,
"implied_over": 0.6592,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6593,
"implied_under": 0.3408,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3407,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1817,
"best_odd": 1.385,
"edge": -0.0322,
"ev": -0.1315,
"implied_prob": 0.6593,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6271
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1321,
"best_odd": 2.68,
"edge": 0.0234,
"ev": -0.0241,
"implied_prob": 0.3407,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3641
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6271,
"p_final_under": 0.3641,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4245,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4245,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.4245,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.9
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w II)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4245,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4245,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w II at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 45.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w II as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w II",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +42.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +42.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+42.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w II).",
"Decision strength: 6.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.19,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4553,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5128205128205129,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2584,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3803,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.12
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0399,
"ev": -0.19,
"implied_prob": 0.4553,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w II"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1456,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.77,
"edge": 0.0186,
"market_prob": 0.3285,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1456,
"best_odd": 2.77,
"edge": 0.0186,
"ev": -0.0387,
"implied_prob": 0.3285,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.347
},
"p_final": 0.347,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0387,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2002,
"best_odd": 1.355,
"edge": -0.0255,
"ev": -0.1247,
"implied_prob": 0.6715,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.646
}
},
"edge": 0.1256,
"ev": 0.3133,
"implied_prob": 0.3304,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1321,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.68,
"edge": 0.0234,
"market_prob": 0.3407,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1817,
"best_odd": 1.385,
"edge": -0.0322,
"ev": -0.1315,
"implied_prob": 0.6593,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6271
},
"p_final": 0.3641,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0241,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1321,
"best_odd": 2.68,
"edge": 0.0234,
"ev": -0.0241,
"implied_prob": 0.3407,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3641
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1772,
"ev": 0.4245,
"implied_prob": 0.3408,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1568187,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.4245,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3237,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3803
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3133,
"implied_prob": 0.3304,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3133,
"implied_prob": 0.3304,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Czarni Po\u0142aniec",
"home": "Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w II"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.153924,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4245,
"implied_prob": 0.3408,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.19,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4553,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5128205128205129,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2584,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1568187,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-25T10:59:16.432626+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Wisła Kraków II & Czarni Połaniec!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
III Liga - Group 4 — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chełmianka Chełm | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 26 |
| 2 | KSZO 1929 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 19 |
| 3 | Czarni Połaniec | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19 |
| 4 | Wisłoka Dębica | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19 |
| 5 | Wiślanie Jaśkowice | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | Naprzód Janów | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 7 | Jarosław | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 8 | Siarka Tarnobrzeg | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 9 | Wisła Kraków II | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 10 | Sokół Kolb. | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 12 |
| 11 | Podlasie Biała Podlaska | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 12 | Busko-Zdroj | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 13 | Hetman Zamosc | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 14 | Star Starachowice | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 |
| 15 | Korona Kielce II | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 16 | KS Wieczysta Krakow II | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 17 | Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 |
| 18 | Moravia Morawica | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jarosław | 9 | 24 | 15 | +9 | 16 |
| 2 | Naprzód Janów | 10 | 24 | 20 | +4 | 17 |
| 3 | Korona Kielce II | 10 | 21 | 26 | -5 | 8 |
| 4 | Czarni Połaniec | 10 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 19 |
| 5 | Chełmianka Chełm | 10 | 16 | 3 | +13 | 26 |
| 6 | Hetman Zamosc | 9 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 10 |
| 7 | Wiślanie Jaśkowice | 10 | 15 | 10 | +5 | 17 |
| 8 | KSZO 1929 | 9 | 14 | 6 | +8 | 19 |
| 9 | Wisłoka Dębica | 10 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 19 |
| 10 | Busko-Zdroj | 10 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 11 |
| 11 | Siarka Tarnobrzeg | 10 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 | Wisła Kraków II | 10 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 13 |
| 13 | Star Starachowice | 10 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 10 |
| 14 | Sokół Kolb. | 10 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 12 |
| 15 | Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów | 10 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 7 |
| 16 | KS Wieczysta Krakow II | 10 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 8 |
| 17 | Moravia Morawica | 9 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 6 |
| 18 | Podlasie Biała Podlaska | 10 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 11 |
