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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (4 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Wacker Innsbruck Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-2 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.38
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · Sturm Graz II 2–2 Wacker Innsbruck
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "4d2a7d5642ec8620b8b608c6ce179b7af8cfe8159bb4f7dbcbb373e20d732309",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.34,
"away_win_prob": 0.3706,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2963,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.7,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.0,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.26,
"home_win_prob": 0.3331,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Winner : Sturm Graz II",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Sturm Graz II"
},
"away_xg": 1.34,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Wacker Innsbruck",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0166,
"edge_gap": 0.0371,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3539,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 37.1,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 33.3
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.69
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.69,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Wacker Innsbruck Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.83,
"market_odds": 2.69,
"model_odds": 2.7,
"overround": 5.0,
"prob_edge": -0.1,
"value_pct": -0.4,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 3,
"away_failed_to_score": 2,
"away_played": 6,
"away_score_rate": 73.8,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 2,
"home_played": 6,
"home_score_rate": 71.6,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.34,
"home_expected": 1.26,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.9
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Sturm Graz II or Draw",
"prob": 62.9
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Sturm Graz II or Wacker Innsbruck",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Wacker Innsbruck",
"prob": 66.7
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Sturm Graz II or Wacker Innsbruck",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 37.1,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 33.3,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Wacker Innsbruck"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.3,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 2.2,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 14.6,
"implied_prob": 25.8,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.6,
"odds": 3.87
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Wacker Innsbruck",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 35.39,
"draw": 24.6,
"home": 40.0
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 13:30:17",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 13:06:48",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Sturm Graz II",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 40.0,
"gap_pp": -6.66,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 33.35
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.6,
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.6
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 35.39,
"gap_pp": 1.66,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 37.05
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 58.88,
"gap_pp": -10.68,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 41.12,
"gap_pp": 10.68,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.38,
"early": 2.38,
"implied_closing_pct": 40.0,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 40.0,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.87,
"early": 3.87,
"implied_closing_pct": 24.6,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 24.6,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.69,
"early": 2.69,
"implied_closing_pct": 35.39,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 35.39,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.62,
"early": 1.62,
"implied_closing_pct": 58.88,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 58.88,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.32,
"early": 2.32,
"implied_closing_pct": 41.12,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 41.12,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 10.7,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -0.8,
"ev": -0.0625,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.5,
"market_prob": 0.1333,
"market_prob_pct": 13.3,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.4
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.9
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.26,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1519,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0158,
"edge_pp": 1.6,
"market_prob": 0.4141,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2089,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": -0.0217,
"ev": -0.1029,
"implied_prob": 0.5859,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5642
},
"p_final": 0.4299,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1655,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0328,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1519,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0158,
"ev": -0.0328,
"implied_prob": 0.4141,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4299
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2192,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -21.9,
"text": "-21.9%"
},
"ev_under": 0.2018,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 20.2,
"text": "+20.2%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.2018,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10331.62,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1613,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.39,
"edge": 0.0112,
"edge_pp": 1.1,
"market_prob": 0.3856,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1613,
"best_odd": 2.39,
"edge": 0.0112,
"ev": -0.0517,
"implied_prob": 0.3856,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3968
},
"p_final": 0.3968,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0875,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0517,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2217,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0154,
"ev": -0.1015,
"implied_prob": 0.6144,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.599
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1375,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 13.8,
"text": "+13.8%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1661,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.6,
"text": "-16.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1375,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10123.75,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Wacker Innsbruck, but the model still strongly favours Wacker Innsbruck.",
"consensus_odds": 2.69,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0283,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.8,
"text": "-2.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3539,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0058,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.6,
"text": "+0.6%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.7,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0034,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-0.3%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Wacker Innsbruck",
"sort_key": 5204.64,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "7/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "7/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +20.9%",
"alert_team": "Wacker Innsbruck",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 6.7,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.69,
"hero_label": "Sturm Graz II",
"market_prob_pct": 35.4,
"market_team": "Sturm Graz II",
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"model_team": "Wacker Innsbruck",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 67,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Wacker Innsbruck, but the model still strongly favours Wacker Innsbruck."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Wacker Innsbruck, but the model still strongly favours Wacker Innsbruck."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2018,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2018,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Wacker Innsbruck at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Wacker Innsbruck as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Wacker Innsbruck, but the model still strongly favours Wacker Innsbruck.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Wacker Innsbruck",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +20.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +20.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +20.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+20.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Wacker Innsbruck, but the model still strongly favours Wacker Innsbruck.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Wacker Innsbruck, but the model still strongly favours Wacker Innsbruck.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0283,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.69,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3539,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3717472118959108,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0034,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-0.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "7/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7777777777777778,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.8,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 76,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 6.69,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.69,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.34,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.26,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.34,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.26 \u00b7 Away xG 1.34 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.9,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +20.9%",
"steam_team": "Wacker Innsbruck",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Wacker Innsbruck, but the model still strongly favours Wacker Innsbruck.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Wacker Innsbruck, but the model still strongly favours Wacker Innsbruck."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Wacker Innsbruck, but the model still strongly favours Wacker Innsbruck."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2018,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2018,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Wacker Innsbruck at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Wacker Innsbruck as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Wacker Innsbruck, but the model still strongly favours Wacker Innsbruck.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Wacker Innsbruck",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +20.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +20.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +20.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+20.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Wacker Innsbruck, but the model still strongly favours Wacker Innsbruck.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Wacker Innsbruck, but the model still strongly favours Wacker Innsbruck.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0283,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.69,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3539,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3717472118959108,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0034,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-0.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Wacker Innsbruck, but the model still strongly favours Wacker Innsbruck.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Sturm Graz II 1.26 xG vs Wacker Innsbruck 1.34 \u2192 Wacker Innsbruck 37.1%",
"Market: Sturm Graz II ~35.4% implied",
"Market Drift: Wacker Innsbruck odds \u2191 +20.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Wacker Innsbruck, but the market has moved away from Wacker Innsbruck.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -6.69,
"fair_prob": 33.31,
"label": "Sturm Graz II",
"market_prob": 40.0,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.03,
"fair_prob": 29.63,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.6,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.67,
"fair_prob": 37.06,
"label": "Wacker Innsbruck",
"market_prob": 35.39,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.3,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 58.5,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.3,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 41.5,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.13,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 61.63,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.13,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 38.37,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -6.69,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.31,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Sturm Graz II",
"market_prob_pct": 40.0,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Wacker Innsbruck"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Sturm Graz II\u0027s win probability at 40.0%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 33.3%, a difference of 6.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 6.69,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Wacker Innsbruck",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 35.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+1.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 1.7,
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+1.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 1.7,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 76,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Wacker Innsbruck, but the model still strongly favours Wacker Innsbruck. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Sturm Graz II 1.26 xG vs Wacker Innsbruck 1.34 \u2192 Wacker Innsbruck 37.1%",
"Market: Sturm Graz II ~35.4% implied",
"Market Drift: Wacker Innsbruck odds \u2191 +20.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Wacker Innsbruck, but the market has moved away from Wacker Innsbruck.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.69,
"hero_label": "Sturm Graz II",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Wacker Innsbruck odds lengthened \u2191 +20.9%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Wacker Innsbruck has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 20.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Sturm Graz II. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Wacker Innsbruck \u2014 odds lengthened by 20.9% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Sturm Graz II. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, Wacker Innsbruck has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 20.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Wacker Innsbruck \u2014 odds lengthened by 20.9% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Sturm Graz II above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Wacker Innsbruck has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 20.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/9) supports the current market view on Wacker Innsbruck."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 6.69,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 3.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 3.8,
"max_prob_pct": 37.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Sturm Graz II",
"largest_gap_pp": -6.7,
"lead": "The closing market prices Sturm Graz II higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.7,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -6.69,
"edge_pp": -6.69,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.31,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Sturm Graz II",
"market_prob_pct": 40.0,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.03,
"edge_pp": 5.03,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.63,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.6,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.67,
"edge_pp": 1.67,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.06,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Wacker Innsbruck",
"market_prob_pct": 35.39,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Wacker Innsbruck \u2014 odds lengthened by 20.9% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Sturm Graz II (35.4%).",
"However, Wacker Innsbruck has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +20.9%, 7/9) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Wacker Innsbruck, Market \u2192 Sturm Graz II, while Wacker Innsbruck odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 42.02,
"closing_odds": 2.38,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 42.02,
"entry_odds": 2.38,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +31.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 31.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 25.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 25.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +23.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 23.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +20.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +19.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 19.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.4
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "7/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.6,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +20.9%",
"move_pct_abs": 20.9,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 103h 52m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"7/9 books lengthened Wacker Innsbruck together (20.9% drift, score 67) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.9,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.69",
"2.42",
"2.15"
],
"display": "2.69 \u2192 1.92 \u2192 2.60",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 103h 52m",
"pick_team": "Wacker Innsbruck",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.69"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.92"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.60"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.15,
2.69,
2.6
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,3.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.15"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.15"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.69"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.60"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.15,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Wacker Innsbruck odds \u2191 +20.9% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Wacker Innsbruck",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Wacker Innsbruck odds \u2191 +20.9% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.6,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +20.9%",
"open_odds": 2.15,
"summary": "Market moved away from Wacker Innsbruck while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Wacker Innsbruck",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 67,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/9",
"current_odds": 2.6,
"move_display": "\u2191 +20.9%",
"open_odds": 2.15,
"pick_team": "Wacker Innsbruck",
"steam_score": 67,
"steam_team_name": "Wacker Innsbruck",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "wacker-innsbruck",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Wacker Innsbruck",
"away_team_id": 1073,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1073.webp",
"away_team_name": "Wacker Innsbruck",
"away_team_public_id": "105Q5iPOslKItW",
"away_team_slug": "wacker-innsbruck",
"country_code": "AT",
"country_display_name": "Austria",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/at.svg",
"country_id": 10,
"country_name": "Austria",
"fixture_id": 1567915,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Austria",
"home_team_display_name": "Sturm Graz II",
"home_team_id": 8251,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/8251.webp",
"home_team_name": "Sturm Graz II",
"home_team_public_id": "3lQXyxeCmlrG4k",
"home_team_slug": "sturm-graz-ii",
"ht.home_team_slug": "sturm-graz-ii",
"league_country": "Austria",
"league_country_display": "Austria",
"league_display_name": "Gi\u1ea3i h\u1ea1ng Nh\u00ec \u00c1o",
"league_id": 219,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/219.webp",
"league_name": "Gi\u1ea3i h\u1ea1ng Nh\u00ec \u00c1o",
"league_public_id": "1COmL0rG6VJrAT",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 13:30:00",
"public_id": "2N3ZGLWixxFrDC",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Gleisdorf",
"venue_name": "Solarstadion Gleisdorf"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4388,
"best_odd": 2.69,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0073,
"ev": -0.0283,
"implied_prob": 0.3539,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3539,
"draw": 0.246,
"home": 0.4
},
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"p_final": 0.3612
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2775,
"best_odd": 3.87,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0139,
"ev": 0.0058,
"implied_prob": 0.246,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3539,
"draw": 0.246,
"home": 0.4
},
"model_prob": 0.296,
"p_final": 0.2599
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4051,
"best_odd": 2.38,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.027,
"ev": -0.1121,
"implied_prob": 0.4,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3539,
"draw": 0.246,
"home": 0.4
},
"model_prob": 0.3335,
"p_final": 0.3731
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.69,
"edge": -0.0012,
"ev": -0.0033,
"implied_prob": 0.3717,
"model_prob": 0.3705
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.87,
"edge": 0.0376,
"ev": 0.1455,
"implied_prob": 0.2584,
"model_prob": 0.296
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.38,
"edge": -0.0867,
"ev": -0.2063,
"implied_prob": 0.4202,
"model_prob": 0.3335
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1613,
"alpha_yes": 0.2217,
"best_no_odd": 2.5,
"best_yes_odd": 1.53,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0713,
"edge_yes": -0.0713,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1375,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0517,
"ev_yes": -0.1661,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1015,
"implied_no": 0.3837,
"implied_yes": 0.6163,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1613,
"best_odd": 2.39,
"edge": 0.0112,
"ev": -0.0517,
"implied_prob": 0.3856,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3968
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2217,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0154,
"ev": -0.1015,
"implied_prob": 0.6144,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.599
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.3968,
"p_final_yes": 0.599,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2089,
"alpha_under": 0.1519,
"best_over_odd": 1.62,
"best_under_odd": 2.32,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.59,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.25,
"edge_over": -0.103,
"edge_under": 0.103,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2192,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1029,
"ev_under": 0.2018,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0328,
"implied_over": 0.585,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5859,
"implied_under": 0.415,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4141,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2089,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": -0.0217,
"ev": -0.1029,
"implied_prob": 0.5859,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5642
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1519,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0158,
"ev": -0.0328,
"implied_prob": 0.4141,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4299
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5642,
"p_final_under": 0.4299,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2018,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2018,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2018,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.6
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Wacker Innsbruck, but the model still strongly favours Wacker Innsbruck."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2018,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2018,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Wacker Innsbruck at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Wacker Innsbruck as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Wacker Innsbruck, but the model still strongly favours Wacker Innsbruck.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Wacker Innsbruck",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +20.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +20.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +20.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+20.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Wacker Innsbruck, but the model still strongly favours Wacker Innsbruck.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Wacker Innsbruck, but the model still strongly favours Wacker Innsbruck.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0283,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.69,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3539,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3717472118959108,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0034,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-0.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.296,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3705,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.08
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.69,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0073,
"ev": -0.0283,
"implied_prob": 0.3539,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Wacker Innsbruck"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1613,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.39,
"edge": 0.0112,
"market_prob": 0.3856,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
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"best_odd": 2.39,
"edge": 0.0112,
"ev": -0.0517,
"implied_prob": 0.3856,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3968
},
"p_final": 0.3968,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0517,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2217,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0154,
"ev": -0.1015,
"implied_prob": 0.6144,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.599
}
},
"edge": 0.0713,
"ev": 0.1375,
"implied_prob": 0.3837,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1519,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0158,
"market_prob": 0.4141,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2089,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": -0.0217,
"ev": -0.1029,
"implied_prob": 0.5859,
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},
"p_final": 0.4299,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0328,
"under": {
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},
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},
"edge": 0.103,
"ev": 0.2018,
"implied_prob": 0.415,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1567915,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2018,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 0.296,
"home": 0.3335
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1375,
"implied_prob": 0.3837,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
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"ev": 0.1375,
"implied_prob": 0.3837,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Wacker Innsbruck",
"home": "Sturm Graz II"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.073173,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2018,
"implied_prob": 0.415,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0283,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.69,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3539,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3717472118959108,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0034,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-0.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1567915,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T13:30:19.461701+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Sturm Graz II & Wacker Innsbruck!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Giải hạng Nhì Áo — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Blau-Weiß Linz | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 18 |
| 2 | First Vienna | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 3 | Floridsdorfer AC | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 4 | SKU Amstetten | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 5 | Austria Vienna (Am) | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 6 | Wacker Innsbruck | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Austria Salzburg | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | FC Liefering | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 9 | Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 10 | SKN St. Pölten | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 11 | Admira Wacker | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 12 | Voitsberg | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 13 | Sturm Graz II | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 14 | Rapid Wien II | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 15 | WSPG Wels | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 16 | SV Kapfenberg | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Blau-Weiß Linz | 7 | 20 | 4 | +16 | 18 |
| 2 | Sturm Graz II | 7 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 8 |
| 3 | First Vienna | 7 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 16 |
| 4 | SKU Amstetten | 7 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 12 |
| 5 | Austria Salzburg | 7 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 10 |
| 6 | FC Liefering | 7 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 10 |
| 7 | Floridsdorfer AC | 7 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 13 |
| 8 | Austria Vienna (Am) | 7 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 12 |
| 9 | Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz | 7 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Wacker Innsbruck | 7 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 11 |
| 11 | Voitsberg | 7 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 9 |
| 12 | SV Kapfenberg | 7 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 3 |
| 13 | WSPG Wels | 7 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 4 |
| 14 | Admira Wacker | 7 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 9 |
| 15 | Rapid Wien II | 7 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 6 |
| 16 | SKN St. Pölten | 7 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 9 |
