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Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (4 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 SKN St. Pölten SKN St. Pölten ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-3 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.04
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
SKN St. Pölten win · FC Liefering 1–3 SKN St. Pölten
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "71e3c2f5517caf55f4a94738f740e4890b701362264775359508dfc8684fdb8f",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.31,
"away_win_prob": 0.3564,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.546,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.81,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.88,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.29,
"home_win_prob": 0.347,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : FC Liefering or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "FC Liefering"
},
"away_xg": 1.31,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "SKN St. P\u00f6lten",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.1107,
"edge_gap": 0.0087,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4667,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 35.6,
"draw": 29.7,
"home": 34.7
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.04
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.04,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "SKN St. P\u00f6lten Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.14,
"market_odds": 2.04,
"model_odds": 2.81,
"overround": 5.0,
"prob_edge": -13.4,
"value_pct": -27.4,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 1,
"away_failed_to_score": 4,
"away_played": 5,
"away_score_rate": 73.0,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 5,
"home_score_rate": 72.5,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.31,
"home_expected": 1.29,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.1
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "FC Liefering or Draw",
"prob": 64.3
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "FC Liefering or SKN St. P\u00f6lten",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or SKN St. P\u00f6lten",
"prob": 65.2
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "FC Liefering or SKN St. P\u00f6lten",
"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 35.6,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 34.7,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "SKN St. P\u00f6lten"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.2,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 2.6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 17.2,
"implied_prob": 25.3,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.6,
"odds": 3.96
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "SKN St. P\u00f6lten",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 46.67,
"draw": 24.04,
"home": 29.29
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-13 08:25:24",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-13 08:00:49",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "FC Liefering",
"largest_move_kind": "ou_o",
"max_abs_move_pp": 1.43,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 29.29,
"gap_pp": 5.44,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 34.73
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.04,
"gap_pp": 5.64,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.68
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 46.67,
"gap_pp": -11.07,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 35.59
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 63.83,
"gap_pp": -15.63,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 36.17,
"gap_pp": 15.63,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 3.25,
"early": 3.28,
"implied_closing_pct": 29.29,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.28,
"implied_early_pct": 29.01,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.96,
"early": 3.91,
"implied_closing_pct": 24.04,
"implied_delta_pp": -0.3,
"implied_early_pct": 24.34,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.04,
"early": 2.04,
"implied_closing_pct": 46.67,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.02,
"implied_early_pct": 46.65,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.49,
"early": 1.53,
"implied_closing_pct": 63.83,
"implied_delta_pp": 1.43,
"implied_early_pct": 62.41,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.63,
"early": 2.54,
"implied_closing_pct": 36.17,
"implied_delta_pp": -1.43,
"implied_early_pct": 37.59,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": false,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 15.6,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 0.1,
"ev": 0.008,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 8.0,
"market_prob": 0.125,
"market_prob_pct": 12.5,
"model_prob": 0.126,
"model_prob_pct": 12.6,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.1
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.29,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1431,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"edge": 0.0195,
"edge_pp": 2.0,
"market_prob": 0.3814,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1968,
"best_odd": 1.48,
"edge": -0.0269,
"ev": -0.1243,
"implied_prob": 0.6186,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5917
},
"p_final": 0.401,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2432,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0376,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1431,
"best_odd": 2.4,
"edge": 0.0195,
"ev": -0.0376,
"implied_prob": 0.3814,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.401
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2625,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -26.2,
"text": "-26.2%"
},
"ev_under": 0.3209,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 32.1,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.3209,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10438.81,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.155,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.535,
"edge": 0.0144,
"edge_pp": 1.4,
"market_prob": 0.3623,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.155,
"best_odd": 2.535,
"edge": 0.0144,
"ev": -0.0452,
"implied_prob": 0.3623,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3766
},
"p_final": 0.3766,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1534,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0452,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2131,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0198,
"ev": -0.1101,
"implied_prob": 0.6377,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.618
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1966,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 19.7,
"text": "+19.7%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1825,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -18.2,
"text": "-18.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1966,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10176.94,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "monitor",
"authority_note": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"consensus_odds": 2.04,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1328,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -13.3,
"text": "-13.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4667,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0133,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.3,
"text": "+1.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.1,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.274,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.4%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "SKN St. P\u00f6lten",
"sort_key": 5210.64,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "9/10",
"alert_breadth_note": "9/10 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +17.6%",
"alert_team": "FC Liefering",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 11.1,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -11.03,
"hero_label": "SKN St. P\u00f6lten",
"market_prob_pct": 46.7,
"market_team": "SKN St. P\u00f6lten",
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"model_team": "SKN St. P\u00f6lten",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 62,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (SKN St. P\u00f6lten)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (SKN St. P\u00f6lten)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3209,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3209,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 55,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates SKN St. P\u00f6lten at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies SKN St. P\u00f6lten as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "SKN St. P\u00f6lten",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +32.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "69 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+32.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (SKN St. P\u00f6lten).",
"Decision strength: 4.9/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 69,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1328,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.04,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4667,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49019607843137253,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.274,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"bet_status": "monitor",
"books_breadth_display": "9/10",
"breadth_ratio": 0.9,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (11 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 9.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 69,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 11.03,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 11.03,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.31,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.29,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.31,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.29 \u00b7 Away xG 1.31 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.6,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +17.6%",
"steam_team": "FC Liefering",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 55,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "monitor",
"label": "Monitor - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (SKN St. P\u00f6lten)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (SKN St. P\u00f6lten)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3209,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3209,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 55,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates SKN St. P\u00f6lten at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies SKN St. P\u00f6lten as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "SKN St. P\u00f6lten",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +32.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "69 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+32.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (SKN St. P\u00f6lten).",
"Decision strength: 4.9/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 69,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1328,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.04,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4667,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49019607843137253,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.274,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"tier": "monitor"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: FC Liefering 1.29 xG vs SKN St. P\u00f6lten 1.31 \u2192 SKN St. P\u00f6lten 35.6%",
"Market: SKN St. P\u00f6lten ~46.7% implied",
"Market Drift: FC Liefering odds \u2191 +17.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean SKN St. P\u00f6lten with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 5.41,
"fair_prob": 34.7,
"label": "FC Liefering",
"market_prob": 29.29,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.61,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.04,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.03,
"fair_prob": 35.64,
"label": "SKN St. P\u00f6lten",
"market_prob": 46.67,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.99,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 62.19,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.99,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 37.81,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.27,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 63.77,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.27,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 36.23,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -11.03,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "SKN St. P\u00f6lten",
"market_prob_pct": 46.67,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "FC Liefering"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates SKN St. P\u00f6lten\u0027s win probability at 46.7%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 35.6%, a difference of 11.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 11.03,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "SKN St. P\u00f6lten",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 46.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-11.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -11.1,
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-11.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -11.1,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 69,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "SKN St. P\u00f6lten \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 55,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "monitor",
"label": "Monitor - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: FC Liefering 1.29 xG vs SKN St. P\u00f6lten 1.31 \u2192 SKN St. P\u00f6lten 35.6%",
"Market: SKN St. P\u00f6lten ~46.7% implied",
"Market Drift: FC Liefering odds \u2191 +17.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean SKN St. P\u00f6lten with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -11.03,
"hero_label": "SKN St. P\u00f6lten",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "FC Liefering odds lengthened \u2191 +17.6%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, FC Liefering has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 17.6%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about SKN St. P\u00f6lten than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from FC Liefering \u2014 odds lengthened by 17.6% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about SKN St. P\u00f6lten than the current fair estimate.",
"However, FC Liefering has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 17.6%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from FC Liefering \u2014 odds lengthened by 17.6% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors SKN St. P\u00f6lten more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, FC Liefering has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 17.6%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (9/10) supports the current market view on FC Liefering."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 11.03,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.9,
"max_prob_pct": 35.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "SKN St. P\u00f6lten",
"largest_gap_pp": -11.0,
"lead": "The closing market prices SKN St. P\u00f6lten higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 11.0,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 5.41,
"edge_pp": 5.41,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "FC Liefering",
"market_prob_pct": 29.29,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.61,
"edge_pp": 5.61,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.04,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -11.03,
"edge_pp": -11.03,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "SKN St. P\u00f6lten",
"market_prob_pct": 46.67,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from FC Liefering \u2014 odds lengthened by 17.6% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers SKN St. P\u00f6lten (46.7%).",
"However, FC Liefering has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +17.6%, 9/10) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"SKN St. P\u00f6lten \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 49.02,
"closing_odds": 2.04,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 49.02,
"entry_odds": 2.04,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 9,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +20.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +18.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +18.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +18.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +17.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +17.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +17.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.3
}
],
"books_total": 10,
"breadth_display": "9/10",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.0,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +17.6%",
"move_pct_abs": 17.6,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 141h",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"9/10 books lengthened FC Liefering together (17.6% drift, score 62) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.6,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.28",
"2.92",
"2.55"
],
"display": "3.28 \u2192 2.49 \u2192 3.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 141h",
"pick_team": "FC Liefering",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.28"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.49"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.55,
3.25,
3.28,
3.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 18.7,0.7 37.3,0.0 56.0,6.9",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.55"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.55"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.28"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.55,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: FC Liefering odds \u2191 +17.6% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "FC Liefering",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: FC Liefering odds \u2191 +17.6% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.0,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +17.6%",
"open_odds": 2.55,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "FC Liefering",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 62,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/10",
"current_odds": 3.0,
"move_display": "\u2191 +17.6%",
"open_odds": 2.55,
"pick_team": "FC Liefering",
"steam_score": 62,
"steam_team_name": "FC Liefering",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 11.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "skn-st-polten",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "SKN St. P\u00f6lten",
"away_team_id": 1027,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1027.webp",
"away_team_name": "SKN St. P\u00f6lten",
"away_team_public_id": "05WNHwm0WkBGk3",
"away_team_slug": "skn-st-polten",
"country_code": "AT",
"country_display_name": "Austria",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/at.svg",
"country_id": 10,
"country_name": "Austria",
"fixture_id": 1567905,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Austria",
"home_team_display_name": "FC Liefering",
"home_team_id": 1400,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1400.webp",
"home_team_name": "FC Liefering",
"home_team_public_id": "2KKhqhvHR5kPzf",
"home_team_slug": "fc-liefering",
"ht.home_team_slug": "fc-liefering",
"league_country": "Austria",
"league_country_display": "Austria",
"league_display_name": "Gi\u1ea3i h\u1ea1ng Nh\u00ec \u00c1o",
"league_id": 219,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/219.webp",
"league_name": "Gi\u1ea3i h\u1ea1ng Nh\u00ec \u00c1o",
"league_public_id": "1COmL0rG6VJrAT",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-13 08:30:00",
"public_id": "5fw3iWu6XQpCwt",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Salzburg",
"venue_name": "Red Bull Arena"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3753,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0416,
"ev": -0.1328,
"implied_prob": 0.4667,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4667,
"draw": 0.2404,
"home": 0.2929
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"p_final": 0.4251
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2746,
"best_odd": 3.96,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0155,
"ev": 0.0133,
"implied_prob": 0.2404,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4667,
"draw": 0.2404,
"home": 0.2929
},
"model_prob": 0.2968,
"p_final": 0.2559
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2755,
"best_odd": 3.25,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.015,
"ev": 0.0007,
"implied_prob": 0.2929,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4667,
"draw": 0.2404,
"home": 0.2929
},
"model_prob": 0.3473,
"p_final": 0.3079
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": -0.1343,
"ev": -0.2739,
"implied_prob": 0.4902,
"model_prob": 0.3559
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.96,
"edge": 0.0443,
"ev": 0.1753,
"implied_prob": 0.2525,
"model_prob": 0.2968
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.25,
"edge": 0.0396,
"ev": 0.1287,
"implied_prob": 0.3077,
"model_prob": 0.3473
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.155,
"alpha_yes": 0.2131,
"best_no_odd": 2.63,
"best_yes_odd": 1.5,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0927,
"edge_yes": -0.0927,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1966,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0452,
"ev_yes": -0.1825,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1101,
"implied_no": 0.3623,
"implied_yes": 0.6377,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.155,
"best_odd": 2.535,
"edge": 0.0144,
"ev": -0.0452,
"implied_prob": 0.3623,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3766
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2131,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0198,
"ev": -0.1101,
"implied_prob": 0.6377,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.618
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.3766,
"p_final_yes": 0.618,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1968,
"alpha_under": 0.1431,
"best_over_odd": 1.53,
"best_under_odd": 2.55,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.48,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.4,
"edge_over": -0.1399,
"edge_under": 0.1399,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2625,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1243,
"ev_under": 0.3209,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0376,
"implied_over": 0.6219,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6186,
"implied_under": 0.3781,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3814,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1968,
"best_odd": 1.48,
"edge": -0.0269,
"ev": -0.1243,
"implied_prob": 0.6186,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5917
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1431,
"best_odd": 2.4,
"edge": 0.0195,
"ev": -0.0376,
"implied_prob": 0.3814,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.401
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5917,
"p_final_under": 0.401,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3209,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3209,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3209,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.9
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "monitor",
"final_decision": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (SKN St. P\u00f6lten)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3209,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3209,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 55,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates SKN St. P\u00f6lten at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies SKN St. P\u00f6lten as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "SKN St. P\u00f6lten",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +32.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "69 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+32.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (SKN St. P\u00f6lten).",
"Decision strength: 4.9/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 69,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1328,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.04,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4667,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49019607843137253,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.274,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2968,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3559,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.02
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.04,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0416,
"ev": -0.1328,
"implied_prob": 0.4667,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "SKN St. P\u00f6lten"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.155,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.535,
"edge": 0.0144,
"market_prob": 0.3623,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.155,
"best_odd": 2.535,
"edge": 0.0144,
"ev": -0.0452,
"implied_prob": 0.3623,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3766
},
"p_final": 0.3766,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0452,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2131,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0198,
"ev": -0.1101,
"implied_prob": 0.6377,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.618
}
},
"edge": 0.0927,
"ev": 0.1966,
"implied_prob": 0.3623,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1431,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"edge": 0.0195,
"market_prob": 0.3814,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1968,
"best_odd": 1.48,
"edge": -0.0269,
"ev": -0.1243,
"implied_prob": 0.6186,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5917
},
"p_final": 0.401,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0376,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1431,
"best_odd": 2.4,
"edge": 0.0195,
"ev": -0.0376,
"implied_prob": 0.3814,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.401
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1399,
"ev": 0.3209,
"implied_prob": 0.3781,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1567905,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3209,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3559,
"draw": 0.2968,
"home": 0.3473
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1966,
"implied_prob": 0.3623,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1966,
"implied_prob": 0.3623,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "SKN St. P\u00f6lten",
"home": "FC Liefering"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.116358,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3209,
"implied_prob": 0.3781,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1328,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.04,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4667,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49019607843137253,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.274,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1567905,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-13T08:25:26.365612+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho FC Liefering & SKN St. Pölten!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Giải hạng Nhì Áo — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Blau-Weiß Linz | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 18 |
| 2 | First Vienna | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 3 | Floridsdorfer AC | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 4 | SKU Amstetten | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 5 | Austria Vienna (Am) | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 6 | Wacker Innsbruck | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Austria Salzburg | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | FC Liefering | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 9 | Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 10 | SKN St. Pölten | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 11 | Admira Wacker | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 12 | Voitsberg | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 13 | Sturm Graz II | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 14 | Rapid Wien II | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 15 | WSPG Wels | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 16 | SV Kapfenberg | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Blau-Weiß Linz | 7 | 20 | 4 | +16 | 18 |
| 2 | Sturm Graz II | 7 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 8 |
| 3 | First Vienna | 7 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 16 |
| 4 | SKU Amstetten | 7 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 12 |
| 5 | Austria Salzburg | 7 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 10 |
| 6 | FC Liefering | 7 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 10 |
| 7 | Floridsdorfer AC | 7 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 13 |
| 8 | Austria Vienna (Am) | 7 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 12 |
| 9 | Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz | 7 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Wacker Innsbruck | 7 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 11 |
| 11 | Voitsberg | 7 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 9 |
| 12 | SV Kapfenberg | 7 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 3 |
| 13 | WSPG Wels | 7 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 4 |
| 14 | Admira Wacker | 7 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 9 |
| 15 | Rapid Wien II | 7 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 6 |
| 16 | SKN St. Pölten | 7 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 9 |
