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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (6 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 SKU Amstetten SKU Amstetten ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-2 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.81
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
SKU Amstetten win · SKU Amstetten 4–2 Austria Vienna (Am)
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "6894f6ed597e2e8dd853fb2a14c20abe946d05310e83f010c4c26d9a4932a5a3",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.25,
"away_win_prob": 0.3285,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2961,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.04,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.66,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.35,
"home_win_prob": 0.3754,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : SKU Amstetten or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "SKU Amstetten"
},
"away_xg": 1.25,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "SKU Amstetten",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.1496,
"edge_gap": 0.047,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.5252,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 32.9,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 37.6
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.81
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.81,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "SKU Amstetten Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 1.9,
"market_odds": 1.81,
"model_odds": 2.66,
"overround": 5.2,
"prob_edge": -17.7,
"value_pct": -32.0,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 2,
"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 5,
"away_score_rate": 71.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 5,
"home_score_rate": 74.1,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.25,
"home_expected": 1.35,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.8
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "SKU Amstetten or Draw",
"prob": 67.1
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "SKU Amstetten or Austria Vienna (Am)",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Austria Vienna (Am)",
"prob": 62.5
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "SKU Amstetten or Austria Vienna (Am)",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 32.9,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 37.5,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "SKU Amstetten"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.4,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.2,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 32.6,
"implied_prob": 24.8,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Austria Vienna (Am) Win",
"model_prob": 32.9,
"odds": 4.03
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Austria Vienna (Am)",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 23.59,
"draw": 23.89,
"home": 52.52
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-11 16:29:11",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-11 16:01:34",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "SKU Amstetten",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 52.52,
"gap_pp": -14.96,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 37.57
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 23.89,
"gap_pp": 5.68,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.56
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 23.59,
"gap_pp": 9.28,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 32.87
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 58.78,
"gap_pp": -10.58,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 41.22,
"gap_pp": 10.58,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.81,
"early": 1.81,
"implied_closing_pct": 52.52,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 52.52,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.98,
"early": 3.98,
"implied_closing_pct": 23.89,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 23.89,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 4.03,
"early": 4.03,
"implied_closing_pct": 23.59,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 23.59,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.62,
"early": 1.62,
"implied_closing_pct": 58.78,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 58.78,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.31,
"early": 2.31,
"implied_closing_pct": 41.22,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 41.22,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 10.6,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -0.8,
"ev": -0.0625,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.5,
"market_prob": 0.1333,
"market_prob_pct": 13.3,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.8
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.35,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1526,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0155,
"edge_pp": 1.6,
"market_prob": 0.4163,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2098,
"best_odd": 1.605,
"edge": -0.0213,
"ev": -0.0975,
"implied_prob": 0.5837,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5623
},
"p_final": 0.4319,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1655,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0283,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1526,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0155,
"ev": -0.0283,
"implied_prob": 0.4163,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4319
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2192,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -21.9,
"text": "-21.9%"
},
"ev_under": 0.1966,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 19.7,
"text": "+19.7%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1966,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10326.94,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1686,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.22,
"edge": 0.0071,
"edge_pp": 0.7,
"market_prob": 0.4127,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1686,
"best_odd": 2.22,
"edge": 0.0071,
"ev": -0.068,
"implied_prob": 0.4127,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4198
},
"p_final": 0.4198,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0101,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.068,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2318,
"best_odd": 1.56,
"edge": -0.0098,
"ev": -0.0991,
"implied_prob": 0.5873,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5775
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0465,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 4.7,
"text": "+4.7%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1171,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -11.7,
"text": "-11.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0465,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10041.85,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "value_alert",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 1.81,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1753,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -17.5,
"text": "-17.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5252,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0151,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.5,
"text": "+1.5%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-15.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -15.0,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.32,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-32.0%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "SKU Amstetten",
"sort_key": 5212.08,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 15.0,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -14.98,
"hero_label": "SKU Amstetten",
"market_prob_pct": 52.5,
"market_team": "SKU Amstetten",
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"model_team": "SKU Amstetten",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 15.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.0,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (SKU Amstetten), but pricing still diverges by 15.0 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "value_alert",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 15.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.0,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (SKU Amstetten), but pricing still diverges by 15.0 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1966,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3247,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.7,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 51,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates SKU Amstetten at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 52.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies SKU Amstetten as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 15.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25c6",
"label": "Value Alert \u2014 not Primary",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "SKU Amstetten",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side SKU Amstetten \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.56 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +32% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1567901 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.56 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +19.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +19.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (SKU Amstetten), but pricing still diverges by 15.0 pp.",
"Decision strength: 5.7/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +32% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1753,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.81,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5252,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-15.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -15.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5524861878453039,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.32,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-32.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"bet_status": "value_alert",
"books_breadth_display": "6/6",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (15 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 17.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 64,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 14.98,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 14.98,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.25,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.35,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.35,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.35 \u00b7 Away xG 1.25 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +0%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "SKU Amstetten",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "value_alert",
"label": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 15.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.0,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (SKU Amstetten), but pricing still diverges by 15.0 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "value_alert",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 15.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.0,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (SKU Amstetten), but pricing still diverges by 15.0 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1966,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3247,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.7,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 51,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates SKU Amstetten at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 52.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies SKU Amstetten as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 15.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25c6",
"label": "Value Alert \u2014 not Primary",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "SKU Amstetten",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side SKU Amstetten \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.56 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +32% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1567901 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.56 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +19.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +19.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (SKU Amstetten), but pricing still diverges by 15.0 pp.",
"Decision strength: 5.7/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +32% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1753,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.81,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5252,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-15.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -15.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5524861878453039,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.32,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-32.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"headline": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25c6",
"label": "Value Alert \u2014 not Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: SKU Amstetten 1.35 xG vs Austria Vienna (Am) 1.25 \u2192 SKU Amstetten 37.5%",
"Market: SKU Amstetten ~52.5% implied",
"Market Steam: SKU Amstetten +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean SKU Amstetten with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -14.98,
"fair_prob": 37.54,
"label": "SKU Amstetten",
"market_prob": 52.52,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.72,
"fair_prob": 29.61,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.89,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.26,
"fair_prob": 32.85,
"label": "Austria Vienna (Am)",
"market_prob": 23.59,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.29,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 58.49,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.29,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 41.51,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.27,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 58.77,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.27,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 41.23,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -14.98,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "SKU Amstetten",
"market_prob_pct": 52.52,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "SKU Amstetten"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates SKU Amstetten\u0027s win probability at 52.5%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 37.5%, a difference of 15.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 14.98,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "SKU Amstetten",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 52.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-15.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -15.0,
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-15.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -15.0,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 64,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "SKU Amstetten \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "value_alert",
"label": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: SKU Amstetten 1.35 xG vs Austria Vienna (Am) 1.25 \u2192 SKU Amstetten 37.5%",
"Market: SKU Amstetten ~52.5% implied",
"Market Steam: SKU Amstetten +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean SKU Amstetten with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -14.98,
"hero_label": "SKU Amstetten",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about SKU Amstetten than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on SKU Amstetten.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about SKU Amstetten than the current fair estimate.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on SKU Amstetten."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors SKU Amstetten more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on SKU Amstetten (+0.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (6/6) supports the current market view on SKU Amstetten."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 14.98,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 4.7 pp (at 37.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 4.7,
"max_prob_pct": 37.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "SKU Amstetten",
"largest_gap_pp": -15.0,
"lead": "The closing market prices SKU Amstetten higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 15.0,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -14.98,
"edge_pp": -14.98,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "SKU Amstetten",
"market_prob_pct": 52.52,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.72,
"edge_pp": 5.72,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.61,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.89,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 9.26,
"edge_pp": 9.26,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Austria Vienna (Am)",
"market_prob_pct": 23.59,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on SKU Amstetten.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers SKU Amstetten (52.5%).",
"SKU Amstetten \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 55.25,
"closing_odds": 1.81,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 55.25,
"entry_odds": 1.81,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/6",
"current_odds": 1.83,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 1.83,
"pick_team": "SKU Amstetten",
"steam_score": 40,
"steam_team_name": "SKU Amstetten",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 15.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "austria-vienna-am",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Austria Vienna (Am)",
"away_team_id": 2860,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2860.webp",
"away_team_name": "Austria Vienna (Am)",
"away_team_public_id": "1DWKciIpBucAvT",
"away_team_slug": "austria-vienna-am",
"country_code": "AT",
"country_display_name": "Austria",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/at.svg",
"country_id": 10,
"country_name": "Austria",
"fixture_id": 1567901,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Austria",
"home_team_display_name": "SKU Amstetten",
"home_team_id": 1404,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1404.webp",
"home_team_name": "SKU Amstetten",
"home_team_public_id": "0J0pLZqpiNXwGT",
"home_team_slug": "sku-amstetten",
"ht.home_team_slug": "sku-amstetten",
"league_country": "Austria",
"league_country_display": "Austria",
"league_display_name": "Gi\u1ea3i h\u1ea1ng Nh\u00ec \u00c1o",
"league_id": 219,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/219.webp",
"league_name": "Gi\u1ea3i h\u1ea1ng Nh\u00ec \u00c1o",
"league_public_id": "1COmL0rG6VJrAT",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-11 16:30:00",
"public_id": "4NjxePZflUQyWX",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Amstetten",
"venue_name": "Ertl Glas Stadion"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1722,
"best_odd": 4.03,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.016,
"ev": 0.0151,
"implied_prob": 0.2359,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2359,
"draw": 0.2389,
"home": 0.5252
},
"model_prob": 0.3287,
"p_final": 0.2519
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2745,
"best_odd": 3.98,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0156,
"ev": 0.0127,
"implied_prob": 0.2389,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2359,
"draw": 0.2389,
"home": 0.5252
},
"model_prob": 0.2956,
"p_final": 0.2544
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4654,
"best_odd": 1.81,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0696,
"ev": -0.1753,
"implied_prob": 0.5252,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2359,
"draw": 0.2389,
"home": 0.5252
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"p_final": 0.4556
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.03,
"edge": 0.0806,
"ev": 0.3247,
"implied_prob": 0.2481,
"model_prob": 0.3287
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.98,
"edge": 0.0444,
"ev": 0.1766,
"implied_prob": 0.2513,
"model_prob": 0.2956
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.81,
"edge": -0.1768,
"ev": -0.3201,
"implied_prob": 0.5525,
"model_prob": 0.3757
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1686,
"alpha_yes": 0.2318,
"best_no_odd": 2.3,
"best_yes_odd": 1.62,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0427,
"edge_yes": -0.0427,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0465,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.068,
"ev_yes": -0.1171,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0991,
"implied_no": 0.4123,
"implied_yes": 0.5877,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1686,
"best_odd": 2.22,
"edge": 0.0071,
"ev": -0.068,
"implied_prob": 0.4127,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4198
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2318,
"best_odd": 1.56,
"edge": -0.0098,
"ev": -0.0991,
"implied_prob": 0.5873,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5775
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.4198,
"p_final_yes": 0.5775,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2098,
"alpha_under": 0.1526,
"best_over_odd": 1.62,
"best_under_odd": 2.31,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.605,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.25,
"edge_over": -0.1029,
"edge_under": 0.1029,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2192,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0975,
"ev_under": 0.1966,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0283,
"implied_over": 0.5849,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5837,
"implied_under": 0.4151,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4163,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2098,
"best_odd": 1.605,
"edge": -0.0213,
"ev": -0.0975,
"implied_prob": 0.5837,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5623
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1526,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0155,
"ev": -0.0283,
"implied_prob": 0.4163,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4319
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5623,
"p_final_under": 0.4319,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1966,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3247,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1966,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.7
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "value_alert",
"final_decision": {
"action": "value_alert",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 15.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.0,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (SKU Amstetten), but pricing still diverges by 15.0 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1966,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3247,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.7,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 51,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates SKU Amstetten at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 52.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies SKU Amstetten as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 15.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25c6",
"label": "Value Alert \u2014 not Primary",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "SKU Amstetten",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side SKU Amstetten \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.56 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +32% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1567901 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.56 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +19.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +19.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (SKU Amstetten), but pricing still diverges by 15.0 pp.",
"Decision strength: 5.7/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +32% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1753,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.81,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5252,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-15.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -15.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5524861878453039,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.32,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-32.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2956,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3757,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.1
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.81,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0696,
"ev": -0.1753,
"implied_prob": 0.5252,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "SKU Amstetten"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1686,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.22,
"edge": 0.0071,
"market_prob": 0.4127,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1686,
"best_odd": 2.22,
"edge": 0.0071,
"ev": -0.068,
"implied_prob": 0.4127,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4198
},
"p_final": 0.4198,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.068,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2318,
"best_odd": 1.56,
"edge": -0.0098,
"ev": -0.0991,
"implied_prob": 0.5873,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5775
}
},
"edge": 0.0427,
"ev": 0.0465,
"implied_prob": 0.4123,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1526,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0155,
"market_prob": 0.4163,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2098,
"best_odd": 1.605,
"edge": -0.0213,
"ev": -0.0975,
"implied_prob": 0.5837,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5623
},
"p_final": 0.4319,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0283,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1526,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0155,
"ev": -0.0283,
"implied_prob": 0.4163,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4319
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1029,
"ev": 0.1966,
"implied_prob": 0.4151,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1567901,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1966,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3287,
"draw": 0.2956,
"home": 0.3757
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Austria Vienna (Am)",
"home": "SKU Amstetten"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.071287,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1966,
"implied_prob": 0.4151,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1753,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.81,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5252,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-15.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -15.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5524861878453039,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.32,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-32.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1567901,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-11T16:29:13.501235+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho SKU Amstetten & Austria Vienna (Am)!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Giải hạng Nhì Áo — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Blau-Weiß Linz | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 18 |
| 2 | First Vienna | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 3 | Floridsdorfer AC | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 4 | SKU Amstetten | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 5 | Austria Vienna (Am) | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 6 | Wacker Innsbruck | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Austria Salzburg | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | FC Liefering | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 9 | Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 10 | SKN St. Pölten | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 11 | Admira Wacker | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 12 | Voitsberg | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 13 | Sturm Graz II | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 14 | Rapid Wien II | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 15 | WSPG Wels | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 16 | SV Kapfenberg | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Blau-Weiß Linz | 7 | 20 | 4 | +16 | 18 |
| 2 | Sturm Graz II | 7 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 8 |
| 3 | First Vienna | 7 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 16 |
| 4 | SKU Amstetten | 7 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 12 |
| 5 | Austria Salzburg | 7 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 10 |
| 6 | FC Liefering | 7 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 10 |
| 7 | Floridsdorfer AC | 7 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 13 |
| 8 | Austria Vienna (Am) | 7 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 12 |
| 9 | Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz | 7 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Wacker Innsbruck | 7 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 11 |
| 11 | Voitsberg | 7 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 9 |
| 12 | SV Kapfenberg | 7 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 3 |
| 13 | WSPG Wels | 7 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 4 |
| 14 | Admira Wacker | 7 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 9 |
| 15 | Rapid Wien II | 7 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 6 |
| 16 | SKN St. Pölten | 7 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 9 |
