Bỉ vs Senegal Statistics & Analysis

Jul 01, 2026 - 20:00
3 1.33
2 1.37
xG Accuracy: 70%
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay

Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian

Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.

  • Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
  • Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (5 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
  • Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có ✔ Chính xác
  • 1X2 Senegal Bỉ ✖ Không đúng
  • Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-2 ✖ Không đúng

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 18:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1623356

Closing Odds 3.85
AI Fair Odds 2.75
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Bỉ win · Bỉ 3–2 Senegal
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 36.4%
  • Historical Bucket: 35–40% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): +37.5%

Thông tin thị trường

Đọc bổ sung sau lựa chọn chính: feed đóng kèo ưu tiên đã thay đổi so với mô hình thế nào.

Tóm tắt thị trường

Thị trường khá ổn định trước giờ bóng lăn. Không thấy dịch chuyển implied đáng kể giữa PRE30 và PRE1 trên snapshot ưu tiên.

Dù biến động muộn hạn chế, mô hình vẫn định giá Senegal (1X2),Dưới 2,5 bàn cao hơn rõ rệt so với implied từ các snapshot đóng kèo — đây là bức tranh tĩnh «mô hình so với giá», không phải câu chuyện đuổi dòng muộn.

Mô hình vẫn cao hơn implied đóng kèo ở Senegal (1X2) khoảng 11.0 điểm phần trăm — tín hiệu lệch giá rõ nhất trên trang này.

Mô hình so với xác suất ngầm lúc đóng kèo

Thị trường Mô hình % Ngầm đóng kèo % Chênh (pp)
Bỉ (1X2) 34.6 45.5 -10.9
Vẽ tranh (1X2) 29.0 29.1 -0.1
Senegal (1X2) 36.4 25.4 +11.0
Trên 2,5 bàn 50.6 52.2 -1.6
Dưới 2,5 bàn 49.4 47.8 +1.6
Ý nghĩa đơn giản

Nói dễ hiểu: mô hình khoảng 36.4% cho Senegal (1X2), trong khi snapshot đóng kèo ngầm khoảng 25.4%. Chênh lệch — khoảng 11.0 điểm phần trăm — là khoảng cách mô hình–thị trường lớn nhất được nhấn mạnh trên trang này.

Giải thích nhanh: «ngầm đóng kèo» là xác suất suy ra từ kèo chụp cuối (sau khi bỏ vig đơn giản). «Chênh (pp)» = % mô hình trừ % ngầm đó, tính theo điểm phần trăm (pp).

Biến động kèo trước giờ bóng lăn

Một nhà cái ưu tiên mỗi snapshot (không phải toàn thị trường). Đường dẫn chụp: PRE30 → PRE1 · Nhà cái: Pinnacle

Trong ngoặc trên cột: Closing = snapshot đầu tiên khả dụng theo PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early = snapshot đầu tiên trong PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 khác Closing.

Kèo chi tiết được gấp bên dưới — biến động implied (đã bỏ vig) không đáng kể.

Xem bảng đầy đủ từng dòng
Thị trường Sớm (PRE30) Sát giờ (PRE1) Δ ngầm (pp)
Bỉ (1X2) 2.14 2.15 -0.2
Vẽ tranh (1X2) 3.4 3.37 +0.3
Senegal (1X2) 3.84 3.85 -0.1
Trên 2,5 bàn 1.85 1.87 -0.5
Dưới 2,5 bàn 2.06 2.04 +0.5

Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.

View technical JSON
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          "outcome": "home"
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          "market_prob": 29.05,
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          "outcome": "draw"
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        {
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        {
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        {
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          "label": "BTTS Yes",
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        {
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          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": null,
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          "outcome": "no"
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        "status": "strong_disagreement",
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        "divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "strong",
        "divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
        "divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
        "divergence_tier": "strong",
        "edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "high",
        "fair_confidence_label": "High",
        "fair_source_note": "Fair probability estimated from Elo-adjusted Poisson model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Balanced match",
          "favourite_label": "Senegal",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
          "headline": "Balanced match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
          "market_prob_pct": 25.4,
          "model_prob_pct": 36.4,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "low",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Use caution",
          "reliability_icon": "!",
          "reliability_tier": "caution",
          "summary": "The model and market both lean Senegal, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and B\u1ec9 remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Prediction Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Warning",
          "value_split": {
            "execution_confidence": {
              "label": "Execution Confidence",
              "score": 61,
              "tier": "moderate",
              "tier_label": "Moderate"
            },
            "model_value": {
              "label": "Model Value",
              "score": 19,
              "tier": "not_reliable",
              "tier_label": "Not reliable"
            },
            "recommendation": {
              "action": "monitor",
              "label": "Monitor"
            }
          },
          "why": {
            "action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
            "bullets": [
              "Model: B\u1ec9 1.33 xG vs Senegal 1.37 \u2192 Senegal 36.4%",
              "Market: B\u1ec9 ~25.4% implied",
              "Steam: Senegal \u2193 -7.5%"
            ],
            "one_liner": "Model and market both lean Senegal with no major conflict.",
            "title": "Why?"
          }
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 10.97,
        "hero_label": "Senegal",
        "hero_side": "away",
        "market_activity": "Senegal odds shortened \u2193 -7.5%.",
        "market_agreement": "weak",
        "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
            "Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
          ],
          "follow_up": "",
          "gap_tier": "strong",
          "lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Senegal.",
          "note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Senegal.",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Senegal.",
            "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Senegal."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "The fair estimate favors Senegal more strongly than current market pricing.",
            "Recent line movement on Senegal (\u2193 -7.5%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
            "Broad sportsbook alignment (10/12) supports the current market view on Senegal."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "max_gap_pp": 10.97,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
          "status": "warning"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.8 percentage points."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 1.8,
          "max_prob_pct": 36.4,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Low",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": -10.93,
            "fair_prob_pct": 34.6,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "B\u1ec9",
            "market_prob_pct": 45.53,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -0.05,
            "fair_prob_pct": 29.0,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 29.05,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 10.97,
            "fair_prob_pct": 36.4,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Senegal",
            "market_prob_pct": 25.43,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "strong_disagreement",
        "status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
        "steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Senegal.",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers B\u1ec9 (25.4%).",
          "However, Senegal has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -7.5%, 10/12).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Senegal, Market \u2192 B\u1ec9, Recent sharp money \u2192 Senegal.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 25.97,
        "closing_odds": 3.85,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 25.97,
        "entry_odds": 3.85,
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "model_validation_status": "warning",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Prediction Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 10,
        "books_reacting_detail": [
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 1,
            "bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
            "is_sharp": false,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2193 -12.7%",
            "odds_delta_pct": -12.7
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 8,
            "bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
            "is_sharp": true,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2193 -7.5%",
            "odds_delta_pct": -7.5
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 7,
            "bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
            "is_sharp": false,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.6%",
            "odds_delta_pct": -5.6
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 5,
            "bookmaker_name": "SBO",
            "is_sharp": true,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.1%",
            "odds_delta_pct": -5.1
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 16,
            "bookmaker_name": "Unibet",
            "is_sharp": false,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.9%",
            "odds_delta_pct": -3.9
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 11,
            "bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
            "is_sharp": false,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.7%",
            "odds_delta_pct": -3.7
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 2,
            "bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
            "is_sharp": false,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.2%",
            "odds_delta_pct": -3.2
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 36,
            "bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
            "is_sharp": false,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.8%",
            "odds_delta_pct": -2.8
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 32,
            "bookmaker_name": "Betano",
            "is_sharp": false,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.6%",
            "odds_delta_pct": -2.6
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 9,
            "bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
            "is_sharp": false,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.6%",
            "odds_delta_pct": -2.6
          }
        ],
        "books_total": 12,
        "breadth_display": "10/12",
        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
        "clv_status": "evaluated",
        "current_odds": 3.7,
        "move_context": "Largest move today",
        "move_display": "\u2193 -7.5%",
        "move_pct_abs": 7.5,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 75h 35m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "Bet365 led repricing on Senegal (7.5%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
          "A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_delta_pct": -7.5,
        "odds_path": {
          "chart_y_labels": [
            "4.00",
            "3.85",
            "3.70"
          ],
          "display": "4.00 \u2192 3.33 \u2192 3.70",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 75h 35m",
          "pick_team": "Senegal",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "4.00"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "3.33"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "3.70"
            }
          ],
          "sparkline_points": [
            4.0,
            3.85,
            3.84,
            3.7
          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 18.7,9.0 37.3,9.6 56.0,18.0",
          "sparkline_trend": "down",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
          "summary_boxes": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "4.00"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "low",
              "value": "3.70"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "high",
              "value": "4.00"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "3.70"
            }
          ]
        },
        "open_odds": 4.0,
        "page_alert_line": "Strong steam move across 10/12 sportsbooks on Senegal",
        "phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
        "phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
        "pick_team": "Senegal",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "",
        "sharp_leader": "Bet365",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "confirm",
        "signal_icon": "\u26a1",
        "signal_key": "sharp_led",
        "signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
        "steam_score": 52,
        "steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "B",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "10/12",
        "current_odds": 3.7,
        "move_display": "\u2193 -7.5%",
        "open_odds": 4.0,
        "pick_team": "Senegal",
        "steam_score": 52,
        "steam_team_name": "Senegal",
        "steam_tier": "B"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 11.0,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_goal_display": 0,
      "away_team_id": 13,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/13.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Senegal",
      "country_code": null,
      "country_flag": null,
      "country_name": "World",
      "fixture_id": 1567308,
      "goals_away": 0,
      "goals_home": 0,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_goal_display": 0,
      "home_team_country": "B\u1ec9",
      "home_team_id": 1,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1.webp",
      "home_team_name": "B\u1ec9",
      "league_country": "World",
      "league_id": 1,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/1.webp",
      "league_name": "World Cup",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-07-01 20:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "score_penalty_away": null,
      "score_penalty_home": null,
      "status_long": "First Half",
      "status_short": "1H",
      "venue_city": "Seattle",
      "venue_name": "Lumen Field"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.2507,
            "best_odd": 3.85,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0275,
            "ev": 0.0846,
            "implied_prob": 0.2543,
            "model_prob": 0.3638,
            "p_final": 0.2817
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2998,
            "best_odd": 3.37,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0001,
            "ev": -0.0216,
            "implied_prob": 0.2905,
            "model_prob": 0.29,
            "p_final": 0.2903
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.3764,
            "best_odd": 2.15,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0411,
            "ev": -0.1094,
            "implied_prob": 0.4553,
            "model_prob": 0.3462,
            "p_final": 0.4142
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "ev_available": false,
          "n_bookmakers": 0,
          "reliability": "low"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "ev_available": false,
          "n_bookmakers": 0,
          "reliability": "low"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.7,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.2.1"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.0846,
      "confidence": 5.0,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
        ],
        "score": 5.0
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "B",
        "stake_factor": 0.5
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
        "scoring_type": "neutral",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.565,
          "draw_prob": 0.29,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.3638,
          "over_prob": 0.506,
          "total_xg": 2.7,
          "under_prob": 0.494,
          "xg_diff": 0.037
        },
        "type": "neutral",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0275,
          "ev": 0.0846,
          "implied_prob": 0.2543,
          "max_ev_side": "away",
          "model_prob": 0.3638,
          "side": "away",
          "side_label": "Senegal"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "lean",
          "edge": null,
          "ev": null,
          "implied_prob": null,
          "model_prob": 0.565,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": null,
          "ev": null,
          "implied_prob": null,
          "model_prob": 0.506,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1567308,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "optional",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": false,
        "code": "thin_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.0846,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 0.25,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.3638,
        "draw": 0.29,
        "home": 0.3462
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "high_total_goals"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Senegal",
        "home": "B\u1ec9"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.030777,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.0846,
        "implied_prob": 0.2543,
        "market": "1x2",
        "model_prob": 0.3638,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "primary_strength": "weak",
        "risk_band": "speculative",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "away",
        "side_label": "Senegal",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": true
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 1
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1567308,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-07-01T20:02:44.279283+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}

Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Bỉ & Senegal!

Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.

Đăng ký ngay
Quay lại Thống kê
World Cup World CupBảng xếp hạng
# Đội Tr T H B Đ
1 Mexico 3 3 0 0 9
2 Nam Phi 3 1 1 1 4
3 Hàn Quốc 3 1 0 2 3
4 Cộng hòa Séc 3 0 1 2 1
# Đội Tr BT BB +/- Đ
1 Mexico 3 6 0 +6 9
2 Nam Phi 3 2 3 -1 4
3 Hàn Quốc 3 2 3 -1 3
4 Cộng hòa Séc 3 2 6 -4 1
# Đội Tr xG xGC +/- Đ
1 Mexico 3 6.6 3.8 +2.8 9
2 Hàn Quốc 3 4.1 2.5 +1.6 3
3 Nam Phi 3 2.7 4.7 -2.0 4
4 Cộng hòa Séc 3 2.4 5.4 -3.0 1