Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (2 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Livyi Bereh Livyi Bereh ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 2-1, 0-2 0-2 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "28163c2ec9c39ed8c5925fddcee2c94f23362b4ba5d186bf833df39d77201510",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.77,
"away_win_prob": 0.4477,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.359,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.641,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2582,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.23,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.87,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.4,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.41,
"home_win_prob": 0.2942,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.616,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under_25_prob": 0.384
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : Epitsentr Dunayivtsi or draw and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Epitsentr Dunayivtsi"
},
"away_xg": 1.77,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Livyi Bereh",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.1639,
"edge_gap": 0.1542,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.2841,
"model_prob": 0.448,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 44.8,
"draw": 25.8,
"home": 29.4
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 3.27
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 3.27,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Livyi Bereh Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 3.52,
"market_odds": 3.27,
"model_odds": 2.23,
"overround": 7.6,
"prob_edge": 14.3,
"value_pct": 46.6,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 2,
"away_failed_to_score": 3,
"away_played": 5,
"away_score_rate": 83.0,
"home_clean_sheet": 4,
"home_failed_to_score": 3,
"home_played": 5,
"home_score_rate": 75.6,
"no_prob": 35.9,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 64.1,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 64.1
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.77,
"home_expected": 1.41,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.4
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 7.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.3
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 6.5
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Epitsentr Dunayivtsi or Draw",
"prob": 55.2
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Epitsentr Dunayivtsi or Livyi Bereh",
"prob": 74.2
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Livyi Bereh",
"prob": 70.6
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Epitsentr Dunayivtsi or Livyi Bereh",
"pick_prob": 74.2
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 44.8,
"draw_pct": 25.8,
"home_pct": 29.4,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Livyi Bereh"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 3.18,
"away_avg_scored": 0.4,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 1.2,
"over_prob": 61.6,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 61.6,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 3.18,
"under_prob": 38.4
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 46.6,
"implied_prob": 30.6,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Livyi Bereh Win",
"model_prob": 44.8,
"odds": 3.27
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Livyi Bereh",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 28.41,
"draw": 27.57,
"home": 44.03
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 15:00:59",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 14:34:50",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Epitsentr Dunayivtsi",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 44.03,
"gap_pp": -14.64,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 29.38
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 27.57,
"gap_pp": -1.75,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 25.82
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.41,
"gap_pp": 16.39,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 44.8
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 46.17,
"gap_pp": 15.43,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 61.6
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 53.83,
"gap_pp": -15.43,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 38.4
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.11,
"early": 2.11,
"implied_closing_pct": 44.03,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 44.03,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.37,
"early": 3.37,
"implied_closing_pct": 27.57,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 27.57,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.27,
"early": 3.27,
"implied_closing_pct": 28.41,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 28.41,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.04,
"early": 2.04,
"implied_closing_pct": 46.17,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 46.17,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.75,
"early": 1.75,
"implied_closing_pct": 53.83,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 53.83,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 16.4,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -5.0,
"ev": -0.324,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.5,
"market_prob": 0.1538,
"market_prob_pct": 15.4,
"model_prob": 0.104,
"model_prob_pct": 10.4,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.4
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.4
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 7.4
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.3
},
{
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 6.5
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.41,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2652,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0428,
"edge_pp": 4.3,
"market_prob": 0.4545,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.616,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2652,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0428,
"ev": 0.0146,
"implied_prob": 0.4545,
"model_prob": 0.616,
"p_final": 0.4974
},
"p_final": 0.4974,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2566,
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0146,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2918,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": -0.0471,
"ev": -0.1528,
"implied_prob": 0.5455,
"model_prob": 0.384,
"p_final": 0.4983
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2936,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 29.4,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_under": -0.3165,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -31.6,
"text": "-31.6%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.2936,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 61.6,
"sort_key": 10414.24,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 38.4,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2774,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0384,
"edge_pp": 3.8,
"market_prob": 0.5027,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.641,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2774,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": -0.0384,
"ev": -0.151,
"implied_prob": 0.4973,
"model_prob": 0.359,
"p_final": 0.4589
},
"p_final": 0.5411,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.173,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0098,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2774,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0384,
"ev": -0.0098,
"implied_prob": 0.5027,
"model_prob": 0.641,
"p_final": 0.5411
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.3143,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -31.4,
"text": "-31.4%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.1858,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 18.6,
"text": "+18.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1858,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no_prob": 35.9,
"sort_key": 10167.22,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 64.1
},
{
"authority_action": "value_alert",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 3.27,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.0502,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 5.0,
"text": "+5.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2841,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0502,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 5.0,
"text": "+5.0%"
},
"model_prob": 0.448,
"raw_edge_display": "+16.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.465,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+46.5%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Livyi Bereh",
"sort_key": 10045.18,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 811.2,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 10.4
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/7",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +6.5%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 16.4,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 16.36,
"hero_label": "Livyi Bereh",
"market_prob_pct": 28.4,
"market_team": "Epitsentr Dunayivtsi",
"model_prob_pct": 44.8,
"model_team": "Livyi Bereh",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 47,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 16.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 16.4,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Livyi Bereh), but pricing still diverges by 16.4 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "value_alert",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 16.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 16.4,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Livyi Bereh), but pricing still diverges by 16.4 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2936,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.465,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Livyi Bereh at 44.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Livyi Bereh as the value side (44.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 16.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25c6",
"label": "Value Alert \u2014 not Primary",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Livyi Bereh",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Livyi Bereh \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.38 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +46% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1565482 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.38 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +29.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +29.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +29.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +29.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+29.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Livyi Bereh), but pricing still diverges by 16.4 pp.",
"Decision strength: 6.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +46% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0502,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.0%",
"consensus_odds": 3.27,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2841,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.448,
"raw_edge_display": "+16.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3058103975535168,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.465,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+46.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 31.1,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.36
}
}
},
"bet_status": "value_alert",
"books_breadth_display": "5/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7142857142857143,
"evidence": {
"score": 80,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (16 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 16.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.1,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 65,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 16.36,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 16.36,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.77,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 31.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.41,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.77,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.41 \u00b7 Away xG 1.77 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +31%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.5,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +6.5%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "value_alert",
"label": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 16.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 16.4,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Livyi Bereh), but pricing still diverges by 16.4 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "value_alert",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 16.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 16.4,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Livyi Bereh), but pricing still diverges by 16.4 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2936,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.465,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Livyi Bereh at 44.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Livyi Bereh as the value side (44.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 16.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25c6",
"label": "Value Alert \u2014 not Primary",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Livyi Bereh",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Livyi Bereh \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.38 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +46% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1565482 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.38 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +29.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +29.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +29.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +29.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+29.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Livyi Bereh), but pricing still diverges by 16.4 pp.",
"Decision strength: 6.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +46% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0502,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.0%",
"consensus_odds": 3.27,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2841,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.448,
"raw_edge_display": "+16.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3058103975535168,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.465,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+46.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 31.1,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.36
}
}
},
"headline": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25c6",
"label": "Value Alert \u2014 not Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.41 xG vs Livyi Bereh 1.77 \u2192 Livyi Bereh 44.8%",
"Market: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi ~28.4% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +6.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Livyi Bereh, but market pricing diverges by 16 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -14.61,
"fair_prob": 29.42,
"label": "Epitsentr Dunayivtsi",
"market_prob": 44.03,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.75,
"fair_prob": 25.82,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 27.57,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 16.36,
"fair_prob": 44.77,
"label": "Livyi Bereh",
"market_prob": 28.41,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 16.34,
"fair_prob": 61.6,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 45.26,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -16.34,
"fair_prob": 38.4,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 54.74,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.63,
"fair_prob": 64.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 50.47,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.63,
"fair_prob": 35.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 49.53,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 16.36,
"fair_prob_pct": 44.77,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Livyi Bereh",
"market_prob_pct": 28.41,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Livyi Bereh\u0027s win probability at 44.8%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 28.4%, a difference of 16.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 16.36,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Livyi Bereh",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 28.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+16.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 16.4,
"model_prob_pct": 44.8,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+16.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 16.4,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 65,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Livyi Bereh \u2014 market direction supports the model, but pricing still diverges (+16.4 pp).",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "value_alert",
"label": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.41 xG vs Livyi Bereh 1.77 \u2192 Livyi Bereh 44.8%",
"Market: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi ~28.4% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +6.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Livyi Bereh, but market pricing diverges by 16 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 16.36,
"hero_label": "Livyi Bereh",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Draw odds lengthened \u2191 +6.5%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.5%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Livyi Bereh.",
"note": "Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.5% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Livyi Bereh.",
"However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.5%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.5% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Livyi Bereh more strongly than current market pricing.",
"At the same time, Draw has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.5%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (5/7) supports the current market view on Draw."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 16.36,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 15.4 pp (at 44.8%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 15.4,
"max_prob_pct": 44.8,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Livyi Bereh",
"largest_gap_pp": 16.4,
"lead": "The model rates Livyi Bereh considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 16.4,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -14.61,
"edge_pp": -14.61,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.42,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Epitsentr Dunayivtsi",
"market_prob_pct": 44.03,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.75,
"edge_pp": -1.75,
"fair_prob_pct": 25.82,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 27.57,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 16.36,
"edge_pp": 16.36,
"fair_prob_pct": 44.77,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Livyi Bereh",
"market_prob_pct": 28.41,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.5% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (28.4%).",
"Draw odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +6.5%, 5/7) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Livyi Bereh, Market \u2192 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, while Draw odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 30.58,
"closing_odds": 3.27,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 30.58,
"entry_odds": 3.27,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.2
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "5/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.3,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.5%",
"move_pct_abs": 6.5,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 41h 30m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Pinnacle led repricing on Draw (6.5%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.5,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.37",
"3.24",
"3.10"
],
"display": "3.43 \u2192 2.90 \u2192 3.30",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 41h 30m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.43"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.90"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.30"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.1,
3.37,
3.3
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,4.7",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.37"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.30"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.1,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 5/7 sportsbooks on Draw",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.3,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.5%",
"open_odds": 3.1,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 47,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/7",
"current_odds": 3.3,
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.5%",
"open_odds": 3.1,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 47,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 16.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "livyi-bereh",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Livyi Bereh",
"away_team_id": 17162,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/17162.webp",
"away_team_name": "Livyi Bereh",
"away_team_public_id": "0m13oSPSwa0KZ8",
"away_team_slug": "livyi-bereh",
"country_code": "UA",
"country_display_name": "Ukraine",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ua.svg",
"country_id": 160,
"country_name": "Ukraine",
"fixture_id": 1565482,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Ukraine",
"home_team_display_name": "Epitsentr Dunayivtsi",
"home_team_id": 14434,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/14434.webp",
"home_team_name": "Epitsentr Dunayivtsi",
"home_team_public_id": "2wTF4eLJSDbXYP",
"home_team_slug": "epitsentr-dunayivtsi",
"ht.home_team_slug": "epitsentr-dunayivtsi",
"league_country": "Ukraine",
"league_country_display": "Ukraine",
"league_display_name": "Gi\u1ea3i Ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ea1ng Ukraine",
"league_id": 333,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/333.webp",
"league_name": "Gi\u1ea3i Ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ea1ng Ukraine",
"league_public_id": "5xBRI8YbkQEO0c",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 15:00:00",
"public_id": "1a9754WYEbAU8j",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Kamianets-Podilskyi",
"venue_name": "Tonkocheyev Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2262,
"best_odd": 3.27,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0371,
"ev": 0.0502,
"implied_prob": 0.2841,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2841,
"draw": 0.2757,
"home": 0.4403
},
"model_prob": 0.448,
"p_final": 0.3212
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2921,
"best_odd": 3.37,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0051,
"ev": -0.0883,
"implied_prob": 0.2757,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2841,
"draw": 0.2757,
"home": 0.4403
},
"model_prob": 0.2582,
"p_final": 0.2705
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3512,
"best_odd": 2.11,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0514,
"ev": -0.1795,
"implied_prob": 0.4403,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2841,
"draw": 0.2757,
"home": 0.4403
},
"model_prob": 0.2938,
"p_final": 0.3888
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.27,
"edge": 0.1422,
"ev": 0.465,
"implied_prob": 0.3058,
"model_prob": 0.448
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.37,
"edge": -0.0386,
"ev": -0.13,
"implied_prob": 0.2967,
"model_prob": 0.2582
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.11,
"edge": -0.1801,
"ev": -0.38,
"implied_prob": 0.4739,
"model_prob": 0.2938
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2774,
"alpha_yes": 0.2774,
"best_no_odd": 1.91,
"best_yes_odd": 1.85,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1363,
"edge_yes": 0.1363,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.3143,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.151,
"ev_yes": 0.1858,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0098,
"implied_no": 0.4953,
"implied_yes": 0.5047,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2774,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": -0.0384,
"ev": -0.151,
"implied_prob": 0.4973,
"model_prob": 0.359,
"p_final": 0.4589
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2774,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0384,
"ev": -0.0098,
"implied_prob": 0.5027,
"model_prob": 0.641,
"p_final": 0.5411
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.4589,
"p_final_yes": 0.5411,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2652,
"alpha_under": 0.2918,
"best_over_odd": 2.1,
"best_under_odd": 1.78,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.04,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.7,
"edge_over": 0.1634,
"edge_under": -0.1634,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2936,
"ev_over_risk_adj": 0.0146,
"ev_under": -0.3165,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1528,
"implied_over": 0.4526,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4545,
"implied_under": 0.5474,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5455,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2652,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0428,
"ev": 0.0146,
"implied_prob": 0.4545,
"model_prob": 0.616,
"p_final": 0.4974
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2918,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": -0.0471,
"ev": -0.1528,
"implied_prob": 0.5455,
"model_prob": 0.384,
"p_final": 0.4983
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4974,
"p_final_under": 0.4983,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.18,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2936,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.465,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2936,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 6.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 6.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.8
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "value_alert",
"final_decision": {
"action": "value_alert",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 16.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 16.4,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Livyi Bereh), but pricing still diverges by 16.4 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2936,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.465,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Livyi Bereh at 44.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Livyi Bereh as the value side (44.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 16.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25c6",
"label": "Value Alert \u2014 not Primary",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Livyi Bereh",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Livyi Bereh \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.38 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +46% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1565482 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.38 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +29.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +29.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +29.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +29.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+29.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Livyi Bereh), but pricing still diverges by 16.4 pp.",
"Decision strength: 6.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +46% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0502,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.0%",
"consensus_odds": 3.27,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2841,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.448,
"raw_edge_display": "+16.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3058103975535168,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.465,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+46.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 31.1,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.36
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.641,
"draw_prob": 0.2582,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.448,
"over_prob": 0.616,
"total_xg": 3.18,
"under_prob": 0.384,
"xg_diff": 0.36
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.27,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0371,
"ev": 0.0502,
"implied_prob": 0.2841,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.448,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Livyi Bereh"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2774,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0384,
"market_prob": 0.5027,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.641,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2774,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": -0.0384,
"ev": -0.151,
"implied_prob": 0.4973,
"model_prob": 0.359,
"p_final": 0.4589
},
"p_final": 0.5411,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0098,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2774,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0384,
"ev": -0.0098,
"implied_prob": 0.5027,
"model_prob": 0.641,
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}
},
"edge": 0.1363,
"ev": 0.1858,
"implied_prob": 0.5047,
"model_prob": 0.641,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2652,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0428,
"market_prob": 0.4545,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.616,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2652,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0428,
"ev": 0.0146,
"implied_prob": 0.4545,
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"p_final": 0.4974
},
"p_final": 0.4974,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0146,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2918,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": -0.0471,
"ev": -0.1528,
"implied_prob": 0.5455,
"model_prob": 0.384,
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},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1634,
"ev": 0.2936,
"implied_prob": 0.4526,
"model_prob": 0.616,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1565482,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2936,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.448,
"draw": 0.2582,
"home": 0.2938
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1858,
"implied_prob": 0.5047,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.641,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
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"ev": 0.1858,
"implied_prob": 0.5047,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.641,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Livyi Bereh",
"home": "Epitsentr Dunayivtsi"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.226072,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2936,
"implied_prob": 0.4526,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.616,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0502,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.0%",
"consensus_odds": 3.27,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2841,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.448,
"raw_edge_display": "+16.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3058103975535168,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.465,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+46.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1565482,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T15:01:02.586246+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Epitsentr Dunayivtsi & Livyi Bereh!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Giải Ngoại hạng Ukraine — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Polessya | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 18 |
| 2 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 18 |
| 3 | Karpaty Lviv | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 4 | Dynamo Kyiv | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 5 | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 7 | LNZ Cherkasy | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 8 | Zorya Luhansk | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 9 | Livyi Bereh | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 10 | Bukovyna | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 11 | Veres Rivne | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 12 | Chornomorets | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 13 | Kolos Kovalivka | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 14 | Kryvbas KR | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 15 | Obolon'-Brovar | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 16 | Kudrivka | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 7 | 15 | 4 | +11 | 18 |
| 2 | Polessya | 7 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 18 |
| 3 | Karpaty Lviv | 7 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 14 |
| 4 | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | 6 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 12 |
| 5 | Dynamo Kyiv | 6 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 13 |
| 6 | Kryvbas KR | 6 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 5 |
| 7 | Zorya Luhansk | 7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 8 |
| 8 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 7 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 8 |
| 9 | Kolos Kovalivka | 6 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 5 |
| 10 | LNZ Cherkasy | 7 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 8 |
| 11 | Livyi Bereh | 6 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 7 |
| 12 | Veres Rivne | 6 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 6 |
| 13 | Bukovyna | 7 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | Kudrivka | 6 | 4 | 16 | -12 | 2 |
| 15 | Chornomorets | 6 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 5 |
| 16 | Obolon'-Brovar | 7 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 4 |