Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (2 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Zorya Luhansk Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.31
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · Veres Rivne 1–1 Zorya Luhansk
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "9e7a8df01fbecae529ec1bd36569e1d9fa83ffd061473df2a1db3b52bd0c8b70",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.39,
"away_win_prob": 0.3715,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.434,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.566,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2892,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.69,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.46,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.95,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.32,
"home_win_prob": 0.3393,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.509,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under_25_prob": 0.491
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Winner : Zorya Luhansk",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Zorya Luhansk"
},
"away_xg": 1.39,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Zorya Luhansk",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0298,
"edge_gap": 0.0328,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4016,
"model_prob": 0.3718,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 37.2,
"draw": 28.9,
"home": 33.9
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.31
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.31,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Zorya Luhansk Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.49,
"market_odds": 2.31,
"model_odds": 2.69,
"overround": 7.8,
"prob_edge": -6.1,
"value_pct": -14.1,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 1,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 3,
"away_score_rate": 75.1,
"home_clean_sheet": 2,
"home_failed_to_score": 2,
"home_played": 4,
"home_score_rate": 73.3,
"no_prob": 43.4,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 56.6,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 56.6
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.39,
"home_expected": 1.32,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.1
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Veres Rivne or Draw",
"prob": 62.8
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Veres Rivne or Zorya Luhansk",
"prob": 71.0
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Zorya Luhansk",
"prob": 66.0
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Veres Rivne or Zorya Luhansk",
"pick_prob": 71.0
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 37.1,
"draw_pct": 28.9,
"home_pct": 33.9,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Zorya Luhansk"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.71,
"away_avg_scored": 1.7,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.5,
"over_prob": 50.9,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 50.9,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.71,
"under_prob": 49.1
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": -14.1,
"implied_prob": 43.3,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Zorya Luhansk Win",
"model_prob": 37.2,
"odds": 2.31
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Zorya Luhansk",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 40.16,
"draw": 28.28,
"home": 31.56
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-06 12:29:35",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-06 12:02:42",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Veres Rivne",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 31.56,
"gap_pp": 2.35,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 33.91
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.28,
"gap_pp": 0.62,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 28.91
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 40.16,
"gap_pp": -2.98,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 37.18
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 47.77,
"gap_pp": 3.13,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 50.9
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 52.23,
"gap_pp": -3.13,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 49.1
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.94,
"early": 2.94,
"implied_closing_pct": 31.56,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 31.56,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.28,
"early": 3.28,
"implied_closing_pct": 28.28,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 28.28,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.31,
"early": 2.31,
"implied_closing_pct": 40.16,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 40.16,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.99,
"early": 1.99,
"implied_closing_pct": 47.77,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 47.77,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.82,
"early": 1.82,
"implied_closing_pct": 52.23,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 52.23,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 3.1,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -3.2,
"ev": -0.207,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.5,
"market_prob": 0.1538,
"market_prob_pct": 15.4,
"model_prob": 0.122,
"model_prob_pct": 12.2,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.2
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.2
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.1
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.32,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3254,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.985,
"edge": 0.0153,
"edge_pp": 1.5,
"market_prob": 0.4621,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.509,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3254,
"best_odd": 1.985,
"edge": 0.0153,
"ev": -0.0525,
"implied_prob": 0.4621,
"model_prob": 0.509,
"p_final": 0.4773
},
"p_final": 0.4773,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0104,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0525,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3579,
"best_odd": 1.705,
"edge": -0.0168,
"ev": -0.1115,
"implied_prob": 0.5379,
"model_prob": 0.491,
"p_final": 0.5211
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1198,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 12.0,
"text": "+12.0%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1015,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -10.2,
"text": "-10.2%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1198,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over_prob": 50.9,
"sort_key": 10257.82,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 49.1,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3544,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.785,
"edge": 0.0188,
"edge_pp": 1.9,
"market_prob": 0.513,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.566,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3222,
"best_odd": 1.88,
"edge": -0.0171,
"ev": -0.1165,
"implied_prob": 0.487,
"model_prob": 0.434,
"p_final": 0.47
},
"p_final": 0.5318,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0103,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0508,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3544,
"best_odd": 1.785,
"edge": 0.0188,
"ev": -0.0508,
"implied_prob": 0.513,
"model_prob": 0.566,
"p_final": 0.5318
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.132,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -13.2,
"text": "-13.2%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.0754,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 7.5,
"text": "+7.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0754,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 43.4,
"sort_key": 10067.86,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 56.6
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Veres Rivne, but the model still strongly favours Zorya Luhansk.",
"consensus_odds": 2.31,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.1018,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -10.2,
"text": "-10.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4016,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0423,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.2,
"text": "-4.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3718,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.0,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1411,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.1%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Zorya Luhansk",
"sort_key": 1789.425,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 816.6,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.2
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "2/7",
"alert_breadth_note": "2/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -7.7%",
"alert_team": "Veres Rivne",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 3.1,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -3.01,
"hero_label": "Zorya Luhansk",
"market_prob_pct": 40.2,
"market_team": "Zorya Luhansk",
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"model_team": "Zorya Luhansk",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 26,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.0,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Veres Rivne, but the model still strongly favours Zorya Luhansk."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.0,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Veres Rivne, but the model still strongly favours Zorya Luhansk."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1198,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1198,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Zorya Luhansk at 37.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Zorya Luhansk as the value side (37.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Veres Rivne, but the model still strongly favours Zorya Luhansk.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Zorya Luhansk",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +12.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "75 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Veres Rivne, but the model still strongly favours Zorya Luhansk.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 75,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Veres Rivne, but the model still strongly favours Zorya Luhansk.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1018,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.31,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4016,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3718,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4329004329004329,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1411,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.07 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.07
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "2/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.2857142857142857,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 2.9,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 75,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 3.01,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 3.01,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.39,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.32,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.39,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.32 \u00b7 Away xG 1.39 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -7.7,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -7.7%",
"steam_team": "Veres Rivne",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Veres Rivne, but the model still strongly favours Zorya Luhansk.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.0,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Veres Rivne, but the model still strongly favours Zorya Luhansk."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.0,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Veres Rivne, but the model still strongly favours Zorya Luhansk."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1198,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1198,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Zorya Luhansk at 37.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Zorya Luhansk as the value side (37.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Veres Rivne, but the model still strongly favours Zorya Luhansk.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Zorya Luhansk",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +12.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "75 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Veres Rivne, but the model still strongly favours Zorya Luhansk.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 75,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Veres Rivne, but the model still strongly favours Zorya Luhansk.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1018,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.31,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4016,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3718,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4329004329004329,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1411,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.07 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.07
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Veres Rivne, but the model still strongly favours Zorya Luhansk.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Veres Rivne 1.32 xG vs Zorya Luhansk 1.39 \u2192 Zorya Luhansk 37.1%",
"Market: Zorya Luhansk ~40.2% implied",
"Market Steam: Veres Rivne \u2193 -7.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Zorya Luhansk, but sharp money moved toward Veres Rivne.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 2.37,
"fair_prob": 33.93,
"label": "Veres Rivne",
"market_prob": 31.56,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.64,
"fair_prob": 28.92,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.28,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.01,
"fair_prob": 37.15,
"label": "Zorya Luhansk",
"market_prob": 40.16,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.22,
"fair_prob": 50.9,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 45.68,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.22,
"fair_prob": 49.1,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 54.32,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.39,
"fair_prob": 56.6,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 51.21,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.39,
"fair_prob": 43.4,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 48.79,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -3.01,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.15,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Zorya Luhansk",
"market_prob_pct": 40.16,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Veres Rivne"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.01,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Zorya Luhansk",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 40.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-3.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -3.1,
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-3.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -3.1,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 75,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Veres Rivne, but the model still strongly favours Zorya Luhansk. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Veres Rivne 1.32 xG vs Zorya Luhansk 1.39 \u2192 Zorya Luhansk 37.1%",
"Market: Zorya Luhansk ~40.2% implied",
"Market Steam: Veres Rivne \u2193 -7.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Zorya Luhansk, but sharp money moved toward Veres Rivne.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -3.01,
"hero_label": "Zorya Luhansk",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Veres Rivne odds shortened \u2193 -7.7%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Veres Rivne, with odds shortening by 7.7%. Confirmation remains limited (2/7 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Veres Rivne, with odds shortening by 7.7%. Confirmation remains limited (2/7 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Veres Rivne has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 7.7%.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (2/7), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 3.01,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 3.2 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 3.2,
"max_prob_pct": 37.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Zorya Luhansk",
"largest_gap_pp": -3.0,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.0,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 2.37,
"edge_pp": 2.37,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.93,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Veres Rivne",
"market_prob_pct": 31.56,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.64,
"edge_pp": 0.64,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.92,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.28,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -3.01,
"edge_pp": -3.01,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.15,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Zorya Luhansk",
"market_prob_pct": 40.16,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Zorya Luhansk (40.2%).",
"Veres Rivne has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -7.7%, 2/7).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Zorya Luhansk, Market \u2192 Zorya Luhansk, Recent sharp money \u2192 Veres Rivne.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 43.29,
"closing_odds": 2.31,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 43.29,
"entry_odds": 2.31,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 2,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -13.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -7.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -7.7
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "2/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.0,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -7.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 7.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 35h 38m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Veres Rivne (swing 3.60 \u2192 2.90 \u2192 3.00) \u2014 net 7.7% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -7.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.25",
"3.09",
"2.94"
],
"display": "3.60 \u2192 2.90 \u2192 3.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 35h 38m",
"pick_team": "Veres Rivne",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.60"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.90"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.25,
2.94,
3.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,14.5",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.25"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.94"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.25"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.25,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Veres Rivne",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.0,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -7.7%",
"open_odds": 3.25,
"summary": "Market moved toward Veres Rivne while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Veres Rivne",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 26,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/7",
"current_odds": 3.0,
"move_display": "\u2193 -7.7%",
"open_odds": 3.25,
"pick_team": "Veres Rivne",
"steam_score": 26,
"steam_team_name": "Veres Rivne",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 3.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Zorya Luhansk",
"away_team_id": 599,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/599.webp",
"away_team_name": "Zorya Luhansk",
"away_team_public_id": "3yyh7IBuSdNxol",
"away_team_slug": "zorya-luhansk",
"country_code": "UA",
"country_display_name": "Ukraine",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ua.svg",
"country_id": 160,
"country_name": "Ukraine",
"fixture_id": 1565472,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Ukraine",
"home_team_display_name": "Veres Rivne",
"home_team_id": 6501,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/6501.webp",
"home_team_name": "Veres Rivne",
"home_team_public_id": "3ixmIJhDBf8jKu",
"home_team_slug": "veres-rivne",
"league_country": "Ukraine",
"league_country_display": "Ukraine",
"league_display_name": "Gi\u1ea3i Ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ea1ng Ukraine",
"league_id": 333,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/333.webp",
"league_name": "Gi\u1ea3i Ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ea1ng Ukraine",
"league_public_id": "5xBRI8YbkQEO0c",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-06 12:30:00",
"public_id": "5vBAZxAjfjFTPf",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Rivne",
"venue_name": "Avangard"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4299,
"best_odd": 2.31,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0128,
"ev": -0.1018,
"implied_prob": 0.4016,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4016,
"draw": 0.2828,
"home": 0.3156
},
"model_prob": 0.3718,
"p_final": 0.3888
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2972,
"best_odd": 3.28,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0019,
"ev": -0.0662,
"implied_prob": 0.2828,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4016,
"draw": 0.2828,
"home": 0.3156
},
"model_prob": 0.2891,
"p_final": 0.2847
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4341,
"best_odd": 2.94,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0102,
"ev": -0.0423,
"implied_prob": 0.3156,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4016,
"draw": 0.2828,
"home": 0.3156
},
"model_prob": 0.3391,
"p_final": 0.3258
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.31,
"edge": -0.0611,
"ev": -0.141,
"implied_prob": 0.4329,
"model_prob": 0.3718
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.28,
"edge": -0.0158,
"ev": -0.0518,
"implied_prob": 0.3049,
"model_prob": 0.2891
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.94,
"edge": -0.0011,
"ev": -0.0031,
"implied_prob": 0.3401,
"model_prob": 0.3391
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.3222,
"alpha_yes": 0.3544,
"best_no_odd": 2.0,
"best_yes_odd": 1.9,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0539,
"edge_yes": 0.0539,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.132,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1165,
"ev_yes": 0.0754,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0508,
"implied_no": 0.4879,
"implied_yes": 0.5121,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3222,
"best_odd": 1.88,
"edge": -0.0171,
"ev": -0.1165,
"implied_prob": 0.487,
"model_prob": 0.434,
"p_final": 0.47
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3544,
"best_odd": 1.785,
"edge": 0.0188,
"ev": -0.0508,
"implied_prob": 0.513,
"model_prob": 0.566,
"p_final": 0.5318
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.47,
"p_final_yes": 0.5318,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.3254,
"alpha_under": 0.3579,
"best_over_odd": 2.2,
"best_under_odd": 1.83,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.985,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.705,
"edge_over": 0.0522,
"edge_under": -0.0522,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1198,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0525,
"ev_under": -0.1015,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1115,
"implied_over": 0.4568,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4621,
"implied_under": 0.5432,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5379,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3254,
"best_odd": 1.985,
"edge": 0.0153,
"ev": -0.0525,
"implied_prob": 0.4621,
"model_prob": 0.509,
"p_final": 0.4773
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3579,
"best_odd": 1.705,
"edge": -0.0168,
"ev": -0.1115,
"implied_prob": 0.5379,
"model_prob": 0.491,
"p_final": 0.5211
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4773,
"p_final_under": 0.5211,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.71,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1198,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1198,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1198,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.6
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.0,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Veres Rivne, but the model still strongly favours Zorya Luhansk."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1198,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1198,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Zorya Luhansk at 37.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Zorya Luhansk as the value side (37.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Veres Rivne, but the model still strongly favours Zorya Luhansk.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Zorya Luhansk",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +12.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "75 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Veres Rivne, but the model still strongly favours Zorya Luhansk.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 75,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Veres Rivne, but the model still strongly favours Zorya Luhansk.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1018,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.31,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4016,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3718,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4329004329004329,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1411,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.07 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.07
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.566,
"draw_prob": 0.2891,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3718,
"over_prob": 0.509,
"total_xg": 2.71,
"under_prob": 0.491,
"xg_diff": 0.07
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.31,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0128,
"ev": -0.1018,
"implied_prob": 0.4016,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3718,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Zorya Luhansk"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3544,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.785,
"edge": 0.0188,
"market_prob": 0.513,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.566,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3222,
"best_odd": 1.88,
"edge": -0.0171,
"ev": -0.1165,
"implied_prob": 0.487,
"model_prob": 0.434,
"p_final": 0.47
},
"p_final": 0.5318,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0508,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3544,
"best_odd": 1.785,
"edge": 0.0188,
"ev": -0.0508,
"implied_prob": 0.513,
"model_prob": 0.566,
"p_final": 0.5318
}
},
"edge": 0.0539,
"ev": 0.0754,
"implied_prob": 0.5121,
"model_prob": 0.566,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3254,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.985,
"edge": 0.0153,
"market_prob": 0.4621,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.509,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3254,
"best_odd": 1.985,
"edge": 0.0153,
"ev": -0.0525,
"implied_prob": 0.4621,
"model_prob": 0.509,
"p_final": 0.4773
},
"p_final": 0.4773,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0525,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3579,
"best_odd": 1.705,
"edge": -0.0168,
"ev": -0.1115,
"implied_prob": 0.5379,
"model_prob": 0.491,
"p_final": 0.5211
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0522,
"ev": 0.1198,
"implied_prob": 0.4568,
"model_prob": 0.509,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1565472,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1198,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3718,
"draw": 0.2891,
"home": 0.3391
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0754,
"implied_prob": 0.5121,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.566,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0754,
"implied_prob": 0.5121,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.566,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Zorya Luhansk",
"home": "Veres Rivne"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.060978,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1198,
"implied_prob": 0.4568,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.509,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1018,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.31,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4016,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3718,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4329004329004329,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1411,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1565472,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-06T12:29:37.935551+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Veres Rivne & Zorya Luhansk!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Giải Ngoại hạng Ukraine — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Polessya | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 18 |
| 2 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 18 |
| 3 | Karpaty Lviv | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 4 | Dynamo Kyiv | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 5 | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 7 | LNZ Cherkasy | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 8 | Zorya Luhansk | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 9 | Livyi Bereh | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 10 | Bukovyna | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 11 | Veres Rivne | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 12 | Chornomorets | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 13 | Kolos Kovalivka | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 14 | Kryvbas KR | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 15 | Obolon'-Brovar | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 16 | Kudrivka | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 7 | 15 | 4 | +11 | 18 |
| 2 | Polessya | 7 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 18 |
| 3 | Karpaty Lviv | 7 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 14 |
| 4 | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | 6 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 12 |
| 5 | Dynamo Kyiv | 6 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 13 |
| 6 | Kryvbas KR | 6 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 5 |
| 7 | Zorya Luhansk | 7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 8 |
| 8 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 7 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 8 |
| 9 | Kolos Kovalivka | 6 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 5 |
| 10 | LNZ Cherkasy | 7 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 8 |
| 11 | Livyi Bereh | 6 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 7 |
| 12 | Veres Rivne | 6 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 6 |
| 13 | Bukovyna | 7 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | Kudrivka | 6 | 4 | 16 | -12 | 2 |
| 15 | Chornomorets | 6 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 5 |
| 16 | Obolon'-Brovar | 7 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 4 |
