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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (1 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 FCSB FCSB ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 1-0 1-0 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.44
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
FCSB win · FCSB 1–0 Oțelul Galați
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "93f34fc85839c1ba6574cb67118f206b822b6844a31a866188d8b198cf022ae1",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"afp_away_win_prob": 0.2726,
"afp_draw_prob": 0.2386,
"afp_home_win_prob": 0.4887,
"away_predicted_xg": 1.69,
"away_win_prob": 0.2726,
"away_win_prob_posterior": 0.2726,
"bayes_applied": 1,
"btts_no_prob": 0.297,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.703,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2386,
"draw_prob_posterior": 0.2386,
"fair_odds_away": 3.67,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": 3.67,
"fair_odds_draw": 4.19,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": 4.19,
"fair_odds_home": 2.05,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": 2.05,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.88,
"home_win_prob": 0.4887,
"home_win_prob_posterior": 0.4887,
"over_25_prob": 0.692,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.308
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : FCSB or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"percent_away": "30%",
"percent_draw": "35%",
"percent_home": "35%",
"winner_name": "FCSB"
},
"away_xg": 1.69,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "FCSB",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"edge": -0.1326,
"edge_gap": 0.2156,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.621,
"model_prob": 0.4883,
"pick_type": "no_value",
"probabilities": {
"away": 27.3,
"draw": 23.9,
"home": 48.8
},
"reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "bet365 us",
"odd": 1.44
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.44,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "bet365 us",
"display_market": "FCSB Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 1.61,
"market_odds": 1.44,
"model_odds": 2.05,
"overround": 11.8,
"prob_edge": -20.7,
"value_pct": -29.8,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 1,
"away_failed_to_score": 3,
"away_played": 10,
"away_score_rate": 81.5,
"home_clean_sheet": 3,
"home_failed_to_score": 3,
"home_played": 10,
"home_score_rate": 84.7,
"no_prob": 29.7,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 70.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 70.3
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.69,
"home_expected": 1.88,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 8.9
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.4
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.6
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 7.1
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 5.3
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "FCSB or Draw",
"prob": 72.8
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "FCSB or O\u021belul Gala\u021bi",
"prob": 76.2
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or O\u021belul Gala\u021bi",
"prob": 51.2
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "FCSB or O\u021belul Gala\u021bi",
"pick_prob": 76.2
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 27.3,
"draw_pct": 23.9,
"home_pct": 48.9,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "FCSB"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 3.57,
"away_avg_scored": 1.1,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 1.3,
"over_prob": 69.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 69.2,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 3.57,
"under_prob": 30.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "bet365 us",
"edge": 57.0,
"implied_prob": 17.4,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "O\u021belul Gala\u021bi Win",
"model_prob": 27.3,
"odds": 5.75
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "O\u021belul Gala\u021bi",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 15.55,
"draw": 22.35,
"home": 62.1
},
"closing_bookmaker": "bet365 us",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-10 18:29:30",
"closing_source": "official",
"early_bookmaker": "bet365 us",
"early_capture": "PRE20",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-10 18:09:58",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "FCSB",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 62.1,
"gap_pp": -13.26,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 48.83
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 22.35,
"gap_pp": 1.54,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 23.89
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 15.55,
"gap_pp": 11.73,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 27.28
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.44,
"early": 1.44,
"implied_closing_pct": 62.1,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 62.1,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 4.0,
"early": 4.0,
"implied_closing_pct": 22.35,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 22.35,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 5.75,
"early": 5.75,
"implied_closing_pct": 15.55,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 15.55,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 11.7,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -2.2,
"ev": -0.199,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 9.0,
"market_prob": 0.1111,
"market_prob_pct": 11.1,
"model_prob": 0.089,
"model_prob_pct": 8.9,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 8.9
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 8.9
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.4
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.6
},
{
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 7.1
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 5.3
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.88,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1809,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.76,
"edge": 0.0324,
"edge_pp": 3.2,
"market_prob": 0.5237,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.703,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1645,
"best_odd": 1.935,
"edge": -0.0295,
"ev": -0.1354,
"implied_prob": 0.4763,
"model_prob": 0.297,
"p_final": 0.4468
},
"p_final": 0.5561,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2373,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0212,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1809,
"best_odd": 1.76,
"edge": 0.0324,
"ev": -0.0212,
"implied_prob": 0.5237,
"model_prob": 0.703,
"p_final": 0.5561
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.3912,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -39.1,
"text": "-39.1%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.2795,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 28.0,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.2795,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 29.7,
"sort_key": 10401.55,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 70.3
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2044,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.62,
"edge": 0.0237,
"edge_pp": 2.4,
"market_prob": 0.5759,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.692,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2044,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": 0.0237,
"ev": -0.0286,
"implied_prob": 0.5759,
"model_prob": 0.692,
"p_final": 0.5996
},
"p_final": 0.5996,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.121,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0286,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1487,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": -0.0173,
"ev": -0.105,
"implied_prob": 0.4241,
"model_prob": 0.308,
"p_final": 0.4068
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1764,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 17.6,
"text": "+17.6%"
},
"ev_under": -0.2916,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -29.2,
"text": "-29.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1764,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 69.2,
"sort_key": 10158.76,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 30.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 1.44,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1976,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -19.8,
"text": "-19.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.621,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0053,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.5,
"text": "+0.5%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4883,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.3,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2968,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.7%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "FCSB",
"sort_key": 5204.24,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 806.7,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 8.9
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "10/10",
"alert_breadth_note": "10/10 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +15.0%",
"alert_team": "O\u021belul Gala\u021bi",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 13.2,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -13.23,
"hero_label": "FCSB",
"market_prob_pct": 62.1,
"market_team": "FCSB",
"model_prob_pct": 48.9,
"model_team": "FCSB",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 62,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FCSB)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FCSB)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2795,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5684,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 55,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates FCSB at 48.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 62.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies FCSB as the value side (48.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "FCSB",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side FCSB \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.23 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +57% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1565268 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.23 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +28.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +28.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +28.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +28.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "69 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+28.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FCSB).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +57% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 69,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1976,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.44,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.621,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4883,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6944444444444444,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2968,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 39.3,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.19"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.19
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "10/10",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (13 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 69,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 13.23,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 13.23,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.69,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 39.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.88,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.88,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.88 \u00b7 Away xG 1.69 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +39%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.0,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +15.0%",
"steam_team": "O\u021belul Gala\u021bi",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 55,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 48,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FCSB)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FCSB)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2795,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5684,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 55,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates FCSB at 48.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 62.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies FCSB as the value side (48.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "FCSB",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side FCSB \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.23 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +57% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1565268 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.23 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +28.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +28.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +28.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +28.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "69 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+28.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FCSB).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +57% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 69,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1976,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.44,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.621,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4883,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6944444444444444,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2968,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 39.3,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.19"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.19
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: FCSB 1.88 xG vs O\u021belul Gala\u021bi 1.69 \u2192 FCSB 48.9%",
"Market: FCSB ~62.1% implied",
"Market Drift: O\u021belul Gala\u021bi odds \u2191 +15.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean FCSB with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -13.23,
"fair_prob": 48.87,
"label": "FCSB",
"market_prob": 62.1,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.51,
"fair_prob": 23.86,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 22.35,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.71,
"fair_prob": 27.26,
"label": "O\u021belul Gala\u021bi",
"market_prob": 15.55,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.81,
"fair_prob": 69.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.39,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.81,
"fair_prob": 30.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.61,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 17.83,
"fair_prob": 70.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 52.47,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -17.83,
"fair_prob": 29.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 47.53,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -13.23,
"fair_prob_pct": 48.87,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "FCSB",
"market_prob_pct": 62.1,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "O\u021belul Gala\u021bi"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates FCSB\u0027s win probability at 62.1%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 48.9%, a difference of 13.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 13.23,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "FCSB",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 62.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-13.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -13.2,
"model_prob_pct": 48.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-13.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -13.2,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 69,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "FCSB \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 55,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 48,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: FCSB 1.88 xG vs O\u021belul Gala\u021bi 1.69 \u2192 FCSB 48.9%",
"Market: FCSB ~62.1% implied",
"Market Drift: O\u021belul Gala\u021bi odds \u2191 +15.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean FCSB with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -13.23,
"hero_label": "FCSB",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "O\u021belul Gala\u021bi odds lengthened \u2191 +15.0%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, O\u021belul Gala\u021bi has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about FCSB than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from O\u021belul Gala\u021bi \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.0% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about FCSB than the current fair estimate.",
"However, O\u021belul Gala\u021bi has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from O\u021belul Gala\u021bi \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.0% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors FCSB more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, O\u021belul Gala\u021bi has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (10/10) supports the current market view on O\u021belul Gala\u021bi."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 13.23,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 21.6 pp (at 48.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 21.6,
"max_prob_pct": 48.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "FCSB",
"largest_gap_pp": -13.2,
"lead": "The closing market prices FCSB higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 13.2,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -13.23,
"edge_pp": -13.23,
"fair_prob_pct": 48.87,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "FCSB",
"market_prob_pct": 62.1,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.51,
"edge_pp": 1.51,
"fair_prob_pct": 23.86,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 22.35,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 11.71,
"edge_pp": 11.71,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.26,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "O\u021belul Gala\u021bi",
"market_prob_pct": 15.55,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from O\u021belul Gala\u021bi \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.0% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers FCSB (62.1%).",
"However, O\u021belul Gala\u021bi has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +15.0%, 10/10) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"FCSB \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 69.44,
"closing_odds": 1.44,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 69.44,
"entry_odds": 1.44,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "2H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 2H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 10,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +24.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 24.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +20.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +18.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +18.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.1
}
],
"books_total": 10,
"breadth_display": "10/10",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 5.75,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +15.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 15.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 107h 27m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"10/10 books lengthened O\u021belul Gala\u021bi together (15.0% drift, score 62) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"5.75",
"5.38",
"5.00"
],
"display": "6.72 \u2192 4.75 \u2192 5.75",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 107h 27m",
"pick_team": "O\u021belul Gala\u021bi",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "6.72"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "4.75"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.75"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
5.0,
5.75
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "5.00"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "5.75"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.75"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 5.0,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: O\u021belul Gala\u021bi odds \u2191 +15.0% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "O\u021belul Gala\u021bi",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: O\u021belul Gala\u021bi odds \u2191 +15.0% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 5.75,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +15.0%",
"open_odds": 5.0,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "O\u021belul Gala\u021bi",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 62,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "10/10",
"current_odds": 5.75,
"move_display": "\u2191 +15.0%",
"open_odds": 5.0,
"pick_team": "O\u021belul Gala\u021bi",
"steam_score": 62,
"steam_team_name": "O\u021belul Gala\u021bi",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 13.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "otelul",
"away_expected_goals": 0.08,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "O\u021belul Gala\u021bi",
"away_team_id": 6886,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/6886.webp",
"away_team_name": "O\u021belul Gala\u021bi",
"away_team_public_id": "1JiFUKlCpJTahw",
"away_team_slug": "otelul",
"country_code": "RO",
"country_display_name": "Romania",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ro.svg",
"country_id": 131,
"country_name": "Romania",
"fixture_id": 1565268,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 1,
"home_expected_goals": 0.55,
"home_goal_display": 1,
"home_team_country": "Romania",
"home_team_display_name": "FCSB",
"home_team_id": 559,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/559.webp",
"home_team_name": "FCSB",
"home_team_public_id": "5MzYAS9Lammw9z",
"home_team_slug": "fcsb",
"ht.home_team_slug": "fcsb",
"league_country": "Romania",
"league_country_display": "Romania",
"league_display_name": "Liga I Romania",
"league_id": 283,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/283.webp",
"league_name": "Liga I Romania",
"league_public_id": "537DDrptsfgMdK",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-10 18:30:00",
"public_id": "1pkHmtOhKGOAuY",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Second Half",
"status_short": "2H",
"venue_city": "Bucharest",
"venue_name": "Arena Na\u021bional\u0103"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1648,
"best_odd": 5.75,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0193,
"ev": 0.0053,
"implied_prob": 0.1555,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1555,
"draw": 0.2235,
"home": 0.621
},
"model_prob": 0.2728,
"p_final": 0.1748
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1954,
"best_odd": 4.0,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.003,
"ev": -0.0938,
"implied_prob": 0.2235,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1555,
"draw": 0.2235,
"home": 0.621
},
"model_prob": 0.2389,
"p_final": 0.2265
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4806,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0637,
"ev": -0.1976,
"implied_prob": 0.621,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1555,
"draw": 0.2235,
"home": 0.621
},
"model_prob": 0.4883,
"p_final": 0.5572
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 5.75,
"edge": 0.0989,
"ev": 0.5684,
"implied_prob": 0.1739,
"model_prob": 0.2728
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.0,
"edge": -0.0111,
"ev": -0.0443,
"implied_prob": 0.25,
"model_prob": 0.2389
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.2061,
"ev": -0.2968,
"implied_prob": 0.6944,
"model_prob": 0.4883
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1645,
"alpha_yes": 0.1809,
"best_no_odd": 2.05,
"best_yes_odd": 1.82,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1783,
"edge_yes": 0.1783,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.3912,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1354,
"ev_yes": 0.2795,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0212,
"implied_no": 0.4753,
"implied_yes": 0.5247,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1645,
"best_odd": 1.935,
"edge": -0.0295,
"ev": -0.1354,
"implied_prob": 0.4763,
"model_prob": 0.297,
"p_final": 0.4468
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1809,
"best_odd": 1.76,
"edge": 0.0324,
"ev": -0.0212,
"implied_prob": 0.5237,
"model_prob": 0.703,
"p_final": 0.5561
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4468,
"p_final_yes": 0.5561,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2044,
"alpha_under": 0.1487,
"best_over_odd": 1.7,
"best_under_odd": 2.3,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.62,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.2,
"edge_over": 0.1181,
"edge_under": -0.1181,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1764,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0286,
"ev_under": -0.2916,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.105,
"implied_over": 0.5739,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5759,
"implied_under": 0.4261,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4241,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2044,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": 0.0237,
"ev": -0.0286,
"implied_prob": 0.5759,
"model_prob": 0.692,
"p_final": 0.5996
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1487,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": -0.0173,
"ev": -0.105,
"implied_prob": 0.4241,
"model_prob": 0.308,
"p_final": 0.4068
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5996,
"p_final_under": 0.4068,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.57,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2795,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5684,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2795,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.9
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FCSB)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2795,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5684,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 55,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates FCSB at 48.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 62.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies FCSB as the value side (48.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "FCSB",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side FCSB \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.23 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +57% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1565268 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.23 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +28.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +28.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +28.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +28.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "69 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+28.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FCSB).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +57% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 69,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1976,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.44,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.621,
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"xg_calibration": {
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"deviation_pct": 39.3,
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"strength_delta": -1.0,
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"separation_score": -10,
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}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
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},
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"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
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"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0637,
"ev": -0.1976,
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"side": "home",
"side_label": "FCSB"
},
"btts": {
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"decision_layer": {
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"consensus_odds": 1.76,
"edge": 0.0324,
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"no": {
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0212,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
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"edge": 0.0324,
"ev": -0.0212,
"implied_prob": 0.5237,
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},
"edge": 0.1783,
"ev": 0.2795,
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"model_prob": 0.703,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
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"edge": 0.0237,
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"mode": "market_first_ou",
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"over": {
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"edge": 0.0237,
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"edge": -0.0173,
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"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1181,
"ev": 0.1764,
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"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1565268,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2795,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
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"draw": 0.2389,
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},
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"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
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"market": "ou_2_5",
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"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
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{
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"market": "ou_2_5",
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"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "O\u021belul Gala\u021bi",
"home": "FCSB"
},
"top_pick": {
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"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2795,
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"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.703,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
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"consensus_ev_display": "-19.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.44,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.621,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4883,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.3,
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}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1565268,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-10T20:20:45.950573+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho FCSB & Oțelul Galați!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Liga I Romania — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo București | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 23 |
| 2 | Rapid București | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 21 |
| 3 | Universitatea Craiova | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 |
| 4 | Petrolul Ploiești | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19 |
| 5 | Universitatea Cluj | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 15 |
| 6 | Farul Constanța | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 14 |
| 7 | Corvinul Hunedoara | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 8 | CFR Cluj | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 9 | Sepsi OSK Sfântu Gheorghe | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 10 | UTA Arad | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 11 | FCSB | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 12 | FC Botoșani | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 11 |
| 13 | Argeș Pitești | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 14 | Oțelul Galați | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 |
| 15 | FC Voluntari | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 16 | FK Csikszereda | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 1 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Universitatea Craiova | 10 | 24 | 9 | +15 | 20 |
| 2 | Dinamo București | 10 | 23 | 7 | +16 | 23 |
| 3 | CFR Cluj | 9 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 13 |
| 4 | Rapid București | 10 | 14 | 6 | +8 | 21 |
| 5 | FC Botoșani | 10 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 11 |
| 6 | Universitatea Cluj | 9 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 15 |
| 7 | Farul Constanța | 10 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 14 |
| 8 | UTA Arad | 10 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 12 |
| 9 | Petrolul Ploiești | 10 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 19 |
| 10 | FCSB | 10 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 12 |
| 11 | Corvinul Hunedoara | 10 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 13 |
| 12 | Oțelul Galați | 10 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 10 |
| 13 | FC Voluntari | 10 | 9 | 22 | -13 | 8 |
| 14 | Sepsi OSK Sfântu Gheorghe | 10 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 13 |
| 15 | Argeș Pitești | 10 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 11 |
| 16 | FK Csikszereda | 10 | 6 | 23 | -17 | 1 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Botoșani | 10 | 6.7 | 3.6 | +3.1 | 11 |
| 2 | Rapid București | 10 | 4.0 | 1.6 | +2.4 | 21 |
| 3 | Dinamo București | 10 | 6.2 | 4.0 | +2.2 | 23 |
| 4 | FCSB | 10 | 3.3 | 2.1 | +1.2 | 12 |
| 5 | Corvinul Hunedoara | 10 | 2.7 | 1.6 | +1.1 | 13 |
| 6 | Farul Constanța | 10 | 1.7 | 1.0 | +0.7 | 14 |
| 7 | FK Csikszereda | 10 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 1 |
| 8 | Argeș Pitești | 10 | 1.4 | 1.9 | -0.5 | 11 |
| 9 | Universitatea Cluj | 9 | 1.0 | 1.7 | -0.7 | 15 |
| 10 | FC Voluntari | 10 | 4.5 | 5.3 | -0.8 | 8 |
| 11 | Petrolul Ploiești | 10 | 1.4 | 2.2 | -0.8 | 19 |
| 12 | Oțelul Galați | 10 | 0.6 | 1.4 | -0.8 | 10 |
| 13 | UTA Arad | 10 | 0.7 | 4.1 | -3.4 | 12 |
| 14 | Sepsi OSK Sfântu Gheorghe | 10 | 2.4 | 6.2 | -3.8 | 13 |
| 15 | Universitatea Craiova | 10 | — | — | — | 20 |
| 16 | CFR Cluj | 9 | — | — | — | 13 |
