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Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (4 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 CFR Cluj Universitatea Cluj ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 1-0 1-3 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Universitatea Cluj win · CFR Cluj 1–3 Universitatea Cluj
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"afp_away_win_prob": 0.3534,
"afp_draw_prob": 0.2639,
"afp_home_win_prob": 0.3827,
"away_predicted_xg": 1.63,
"away_win_prob": 0.3534,
"away_win_prob_posterior": 0.3534,
"bayes_applied": 1,
"btts_no_prob": 0.333,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.667,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2639,
"draw_prob_posterior": 0.2639,
"fair_odds_away": 2.83,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": 2.83,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.79,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": 3.79,
"fair_odds_home": 2.61,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": 2.61,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.68,
"home_win_prob": 0.3827,
"home_win_prob_posterior": 0.3827,
"over_25_prob": 0.643,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.357
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : CFR Cluj or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "CFR Cluj"
},
"away_xg": 1.63,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "CFR Cluj",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0081,
"edge_gap": 0.0298,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3912,
"model_prob": 0.383,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 35.3,
"draw": 26.4,
"home": 38.3
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.49
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"odd": 2.45
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"odd": 2.45
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"odd": 2.41
},
{
"affi_link": "https://reffpa.com/L?tag=d_4682699m_1260c_\u0026site=4682699\u0026ad=1260",
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"odd": 2.41
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"odd": 2.4
},
{
"affi_link": "https://banners.dfbanners.com/redirect.aspx?pid=79572\u0026bid=19634\u0026redirectURL=http://www.dafabet.com/",
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"odd": 2.4
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"odd": 2.35
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.49,
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "CFR Cluj Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.56,
"market_odds": 2.35,
"model_odds": 2.61,
"overround": 8.8,
"prob_edge": -1.8,
"value_pct": -4.6,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 3,
"away_score_rate": 80.4,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 3,
"home_score_rate": 81.4,
"no_prob": 33.3,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 66.7,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 66.7
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.63,
"home_expected": 1.68,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.4
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.1
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 6.8
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 6.1
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "CFR Cluj or Draw",
"prob": 64.7
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "CFR Cluj or Universitatea Cluj",
"prob": 73.6
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Universitatea Cluj",
"prob": 61.7
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "CFR Cluj or Universitatea Cluj",
"pick_prob": 73.6
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 35.3,
"draw_pct": 26.4,
"home_pct": 38.3,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "CFR Cluj"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 3.31,
"away_avg_scored": 1.3,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 2.3,
"over_prob": 64.3,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 64.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 3.31,
"under_prob": 35.7
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 21,
"bookmaker_name": "888Sport",
"edge": 23.5,
"implied_prob": 28.6,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Universitatea Cluj Win",
"model_prob": 35.3,
"odds": 3.5
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"has_data": false
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -4.3,
"ev": -0.3,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.0,
"market_prob": 0.1429,
"market_prob_pct": 14.3,
"model_prob": 0.1,
"model_prob_pct": 10.0,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.0
},
"top5": [
{
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},
{
"label": "2-1",
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},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.1
},
{
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 6.8
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 6.1
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.68,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2273,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.67,
"edge": 0.019,
"edge_pp": 1.9,
"market_prob": 0.5594,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.643,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2273,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": 0.019,
"ev": -0.0341,
"implied_prob": 0.5594,
"model_prob": 0.643,
"p_final": 0.5784
},
"p_final": 0.5784,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0738,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0341,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2066,
"best_odd": 2.12,
"edge": -0.0173,
"ev": -0.1025,
"implied_prob": 0.4406,
"model_prob": 0.357,
"p_final": 0.4234
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.4146,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 41.5,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_under": -0.2039,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -20.4,
"text": "-20.4%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.4146,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over_prob": 64.3,
"sort_key": 10523.14,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 35.7,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2329,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.53,
"edge": 0.0161,
"edge_pp": 1.6,
"market_prob": 0.5979,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.667,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1694,
"best_odd": 2.275,
"edge": -0.0117,
"ev": -0.1118,
"implied_prob": 0.4021,
"model_prob": 0.333,
"p_final": 0.3904
},
"p_final": 0.614,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0205,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0606,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2329,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": 0.0161,
"ev": -0.0606,
"implied_prob": 0.5979,
"model_prob": 0.667,
"p_final": 0.614
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1509,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.1,
"text": "-15.1%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.234,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 23.4,
"text": "+23.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.234,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"no_prob": 33.3,
"sort_key": 10210.6,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 66.7
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0804,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -8.0,
"text": "-8.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3833,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0576,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.8,
"text": "-5.8%"
},
"model_prob": 0.383,
"raw_edge_display": "+-0.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.0,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0808,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.1%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "CFR Cluj",
"sort_key": 1785.6,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 810.0,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 10.0
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/12",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/12 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 0.0,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"market_team": "CFR Cluj",
"model_prob_pct": 38.3,
"model_team": "CFR Cluj",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 46,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 0.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 0.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (CFR Cluj)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 0.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 0.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (CFR Cluj)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4146,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4146,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 67,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates CFR Cluj at 38.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies CFR Cluj as the value side (38.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "CFR Cluj",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +41.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +41.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +41.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "67 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+41.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (CFR Cluj).",
"Decision strength: 5.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0804,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3833,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.383,
"raw_edge_display": "+-0.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4166666666666667,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0808,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 24.4,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.05 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.05
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "5/12",
"breadth_ratio": 0.4166666666666667,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation pending",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pending",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 25.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 4.2,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 8.0
},
"score": 64,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 0.0,
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.63,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 24.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.68,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.68,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.68 \u00b7 Away xG 1.63 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +24%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pending",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.0,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 67,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 100,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 100,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 0.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 0.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (CFR Cluj)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 0.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 0.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (CFR Cluj)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4146,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4146,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 67,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates CFR Cluj at 38.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies CFR Cluj as the value side (38.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "CFR Cluj",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +41.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +41.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +41.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "67 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+41.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (CFR Cluj).",
"Decision strength: 5.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0804,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3833,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.383,
"raw_edge_display": "+-0.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4166666666666667,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0808,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 24.4,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.05 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.05
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: CFR Cluj 1.68 xG vs Universitatea Cluj 1.63 \u2192 CFR Cluj 38.3%",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +10.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean CFR Cluj with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 38.27,
"label": "CFR Cluj",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 26.39,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 35.34,
"label": "Universitatea Cluj",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.34,
"fair_prob": 64.3,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 53.96,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.34,
"fair_prob": 35.7,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 46.04,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.1,
"fair_prob": 66.7,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 58.6,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.1,
"fair_prob": 33.3,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 41.4,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"comparison_available": false,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "",
"edge_label_key": "",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "CFR Cluj",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 38.3,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+0.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_prob_pct": 38.3,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+0.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 0.0,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 64,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "CFR Cluj \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pending",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 67,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 100,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 100,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: CFR Cluj 1.68 xG vs Universitatea Cluj 1.63 \u2192 CFR Cluj 38.3%",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +10.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean CFR Cluj with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": false,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"hero_side": null,
"market_activity": "Draw odds lengthened \u2191 +10.0%.",
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pending",
"status": "pending"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.9,
"max_prob_pct": 38.3,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "",
"largest_gap_pp": null,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.27,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "CFR Cluj",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 26.39,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.34,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Universitatea Cluj",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
}
],
"status": "unknown",
"status_label": "\u2014",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical model leans CFR Cluj (38.3%).",
"Draw odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +10.0%, 5/12) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"CFR Cluj \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": null,
"closing_odds": null,
"closing_reason": "No complete pre-match closing snapshot",
"closing_status": "unavailable",
"closing_status_label": "Unavailable",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": null,
"clv_reason": "Requires closing line after full time",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "closing_unavailable",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Closing unavailable",
"entry_implied_pct": 30.3,
"entry_odds": 3.3,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "2H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 2H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"model_validation_status": "pending",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "unavailable"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.5
}
],
"books_total": 12,
"breadth_display": "5/12",
"clv_label": "Waiting for Close",
"clv_status": "waiting",
"current_odds": 3.3,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 10.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 1545h 46m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Draw (10.0%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated the move, but wider market participation remains limited."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.30",
"3.15",
"3.00"
],
"display": "3.55 \u2192 3.00 \u2192 3.30",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 1545h 46m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.55"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.30"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.0,
3.3
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.30"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.0,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 5/12 sportsbooks on Draw",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.3,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"open_odds": 3.0,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 46,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/12",
"current_odds": 3.3,
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"open_odds": 3.0,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 46,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "universitatea-cluj",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 3,
"away_team_display_name": "Universitatea Cluj",
"away_team_id": 2599,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2599.webp",
"away_team_name": "Universitatea Cluj",
"away_team_public_id": "4Rr4hKmf9fClbZ",
"away_team_slug": "universitatea-cluj",
"country_code": "RO",
"country_display_name": "Romania",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ro.svg",
"country_id": 131,
"country_name": "Romania",
"fixture_id": 1565207,
"goals_away": 3,
"goals_home": 1,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 1,
"home_team_country": "Romania",
"home_team_display_name": "CFR Cluj",
"home_team_id": 2246,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2246.webp",
"home_team_name": "CFR Cluj",
"home_team_public_id": "2sLZi3fEsqPJJw",
"home_team_slug": "cfr-1907-cluj",
"ht.home_team_slug": "cfr-1907-cluj",
"league_country": "Romania",
"league_country_display": "Romania",
"league_display_name": "Liga I Romania",
"league_id": 283,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/283.webp",
"league_name": "Liga I Romania",
"league_public_id": "537DDrptsfgMdK",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-08 17:30:00",
"public_id": "0RniutKPRQc2KA",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Second Half",
"status_short": "2H",
"venue_city": "Cluj Napoca",
"venue_name": "Dr. Constantin R\u0103dulescu"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4374,
"best_odd": 2.75,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0082,
"ev": -0.0576,
"implied_prob": 0.3345,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3345,
"draw": 0.2822,
"home": 0.3833
},
"model_prob": 0.3532,
"p_final": 0.3427
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2917,
"best_odd": 3.26,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0054,
"ev": -0.0976,
"implied_prob": 0.2822,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3345,
"draw": 0.2822,
"home": 0.3833
},
"model_prob": 0.2638,
"p_final": 0.2768
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4498,
"best_odd": 2.4,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0001,
"ev": -0.0804,
"implied_prob": 0.3833,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3345,
"draw": 0.2822,
"home": 0.3833
},
"model_prob": 0.383,
"p_final": 0.3832
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.5,
"edge": 0.0675,
"ev": 0.2363,
"implied_prob": 0.2857,
"model_prob": 0.3532
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.45,
"edge": -0.0261,
"ev": -0.09,
"implied_prob": 0.2899,
"model_prob": 0.2638
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.49,
"edge": -0.0186,
"ev": -0.0463,
"implied_prob": 0.4016,
"model_prob": 0.383
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1694,
"alpha_yes": 0.2329,
"best_no_odd": 2.55,
"best_yes_odd": 1.85,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.081,
"edge_yes": 0.081,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1509,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1118,
"ev_yes": 0.234,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0606,
"implied_no": 0.414,
"implied_yes": 0.586,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1694,
"best_odd": 2.275,
"edge": -0.0117,
"ev": -0.1118,
"implied_prob": 0.4021,
"model_prob": 0.333,
"p_final": 0.3904
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2329,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": 0.0161,
"ev": -0.0606,
"implied_prob": 0.5979,
"model_prob": 0.667,
"p_final": 0.614
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"p_final_no": 0.3904,
"p_final_yes": 0.614,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2273,
"alpha_under": 0.2066,
"best_over_odd": 2.2,
"best_under_odd": 2.23,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.67,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.12,
"edge_over": 0.1034,
"edge_under": -0.1034,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.4146,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0341,
"ev_under": -0.2039,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1025,
"implied_over": 0.5396,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5594,
"implied_under": 0.4604,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4406,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2273,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": 0.019,
"ev": -0.0341,
"implied_prob": 0.5594,
"model_prob": 0.643,
"p_final": 0.5784
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2066,
"best_odd": 2.12,
"edge": -0.0173,
"ev": -0.1025,
"implied_prob": 0.4406,
"model_prob": 0.357,
"p_final": 0.4234
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5784,
"p_final_under": 0.4234,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.31,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4146,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4146,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.4146,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.0
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 0.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 0.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (CFR Cluj)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4146,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4146,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 67,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates CFR Cluj at 38.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies CFR Cluj as the value side (38.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "CFR Cluj",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +41.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +41.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +41.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "67 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+41.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (CFR Cluj).",
"Decision strength: 5.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0804,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3833,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.383,
"raw_edge_display": "+-0.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4166666666666667,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0808,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 24.4,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.05 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.05
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.667,
"draw_prob": 0.2638,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.383,
"over_prob": 0.643,
"total_xg": 3.31,
"under_prob": 0.357,
"xg_diff": 0.05
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0001,
"ev": -0.0804,
"implied_prob": 0.3833,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.383,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "CFR Cluj"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2329,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.53,
"edge": 0.0161,
"market_prob": 0.5979,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.667,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1694,
"best_odd": 2.275,
"edge": -0.0117,
"ev": -0.1118,
"implied_prob": 0.4021,
"model_prob": 0.333,
"p_final": 0.3904
},
"p_final": 0.614,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0606,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2329,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": 0.0161,
"ev": -0.0606,
"implied_prob": 0.5979,
"model_prob": 0.667,
"p_final": 0.614
}
},
"edge": 0.081,
"ev": 0.234,
"implied_prob": 0.586,
"model_prob": 0.667,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2273,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.67,
"edge": 0.019,
"market_prob": 0.5594,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.643,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2273,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": 0.019,
"ev": -0.0341,
"implied_prob": 0.5594,
"model_prob": 0.643,
"p_final": 0.5784
},
"p_final": 0.5784,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0341,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2066,
"best_odd": 2.12,
"edge": -0.0173,
"ev": -0.1025,
"implied_prob": 0.4406,
"model_prob": 0.357,
"p_final": 0.4234
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1034,
"ev": 0.4146,
"implied_prob": 0.5396,
"model_prob": 0.643,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1565207,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.4146,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3532,
"draw": 0.2638,
"home": 0.383
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.234,
"implied_prob": 0.586,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.667,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.234,
"implied_prob": 0.586,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.667,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Universitatea Cluj",
"home": "CFR Cluj"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.333235,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4146,
"implied_prob": 0.5396,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.643,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0804,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3833,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.383,
"raw_edge_display": "+-0.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4166666666666667,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0808,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1565207,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-08T19:14:54.955386+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho CFR Cluj & Universitatea Cluj!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Liga I Romania — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo București | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 23 |
| 2 | Rapid București | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 21 |
| 3 | Universitatea Craiova | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 |
| 4 | Petrolul Ploiești | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19 |
| 5 | Universitatea Cluj | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 15 |
| 6 | Farul Constanța | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 14 |
| 7 | Corvinul Hunedoara | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 8 | CFR Cluj | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 9 | Sepsi OSK Sfântu Gheorghe | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 10 | UTA Arad | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 11 | FCSB | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 12 | FC Botoșani | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 11 |
| 13 | Argeș Pitești | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 14 | Oțelul Galați | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 |
| 15 | FC Voluntari | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 16 | FK Csikszereda | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 1 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Universitatea Craiova | 10 | 24 | 9 | +15 | 20 |
| 2 | Dinamo București | 10 | 23 | 7 | +16 | 23 |
| 3 | CFR Cluj | 9 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 13 |
| 4 | Rapid București | 10 | 14 | 6 | +8 | 21 |
| 5 | FC Botoșani | 10 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 11 |
| 6 | Universitatea Cluj | 9 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 15 |
| 7 | Farul Constanța | 10 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 14 |
| 8 | UTA Arad | 10 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 12 |
| 9 | Petrolul Ploiești | 10 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 19 |
| 10 | FCSB | 10 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 12 |
| 11 | Corvinul Hunedoara | 10 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 13 |
| 12 | Oțelul Galați | 10 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 10 |
| 13 | FC Voluntari | 10 | 9 | 22 | -13 | 8 |
| 14 | Sepsi OSK Sfântu Gheorghe | 10 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 13 |
| 15 | Argeș Pitești | 10 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 11 |
| 16 | FK Csikszereda | 10 | 6 | 23 | -17 | 1 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rapid București | 10 | 4.0 | 1.6 | +2.4 | 21 |
| 2 | Farul Constanța | 10 | 1.7 | 1.0 | +0.7 | 14 |
| 3 | Dinamo București | 10 | 3.6 | 3.0 | +0.6 | 23 |
| 4 | FCSB | 10 | 1.9 | 1.4 | +0.5 | 12 |
| 5 | FC Voluntari | 10 | 2.9 | 2.6 | +0.3 | 8 |
| 6 | FK Csikszereda | 10 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 1 |
| 7 | FC Botoșani | 10 | 2.6 | 2.9 | -0.3 | 11 |
| 8 | Argeș Pitești | 10 | 1.4 | 1.9 | -0.5 | 11 |
| 9 | Universitatea Cluj | 9 | 1.0 | 1.7 | -0.7 | 15 |
| 10 | Petrolul Ploiești | 10 | 1.4 | 2.2 | -0.8 | 19 |
| 11 | Sepsi OSK Sfântu Gheorghe | 10 | 1.4 | 3.6 | -2.2 | 13 |
| 12 | Universitatea Craiova | 10 | — | — | — | 20 |
| 13 | Corvinul Hunedoara | 10 | — | — | — | 13 |
| 14 | CFR Cluj | 9 | — | — | — | 13 |
| 15 | UTA Arad | 10 | — | — | — | 12 |
| 16 | Oțelul Galați | 10 | — | — | — | 10 |
