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Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (2 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Không ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 FCSB FCSB ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 2-0, 3-0, 1-0, 2-1, 3-1 2-0 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.61
AI Fair Odds
1.36
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
FCSB win · FCSB 2–0 Argeș Pitești
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
B-
Probability Calibration
- Expected: 73.4%
- Historical Bucket: 70–75% — Building sample
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
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"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "8d3456aee512c208f1496505f0884ea5f30051a76d99742370c515f79d9595e3",
"decision_algo_version": "2.3.1",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"afp_away_win_prob": 0.089,
"afp_draw_prob": 0.1769,
"afp_home_win_prob": 0.7341,
"away_predicted_xg": 0.72,
"away_win_prob": 0.089,
"away_win_prob_posterior": 0.089,
"bayes_applied": 1,
"btts_no_prob": 0.517,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.483,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.1769,
"draw_prob_posterior": 0.1769,
"fair_odds_away": 11.24,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": 11.24,
"fair_odds_draw": 5.65,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": 5.65,
"fair_odds_home": 1.36,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": 1.36,
"home_predicted_xg": 2.57,
"home_win_prob": 0.7341,
"home_win_prob_posterior": 0.7341,
"over_25_prob": 0.639,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under_25_prob": 0.362
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : FCSB or draw",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : FCSB",
"percent_away": "0%",
"percent_draw": "50%",
"percent_home": "50%",
"winner_name": "FCSB"
},
"away_xg": 0.72,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "FCSB",
"confidence": 73.4,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "high",
"display_text": "Winner : FCSB",
"edge": 0.1441,
"edge_gap": 0.5576,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.5902,
"model_prob": 0.7344,
"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
"away": 8.9,
"draw": 17.7,
"home": 73.4
},
"reason": "",
"selection": "home",
"selection_name": "FCSB"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.61
}
],
"risk_color": "#ff9800",
"risk_key": "medium_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.61,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "FCSB Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 1.69,
"market_odds": 1.61,
"model_odds": 1.36,
"overround": 5.2,
"prob_edge": 11.4,
"value_pct": 18.4,
"value_rating": "value_bet"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 0,
"away_score_rate": 51.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 0,
"home_score_rate": 92.3,
"no_prob": 51.7,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 51.7,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 48.3
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 0.72,
"home_expected": 2.57,
"scores": [
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 12.3
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 3,
"label": "3-0",
"prob": 10.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.9
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 3,
"label": "3-1",
"prob": 7.6
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "FCSB or Draw",
"prob": 91.1
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "FCSB or Arge\u0219 Pite\u0219ti",
"prob": 82.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Arge\u0219 Pite\u0219ti",
"prob": 26.6
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "FCSB or Draw",
"pick_prob": 91.1
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 8.9,
"draw_pct": 17.7,
"home_pct": 73.4,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "FCSB"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 3.29,
"away_avg_scored": 0.0,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 0.0,
"over_prob": 63.8,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 63.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 3.29,
"under_prob": 36.1
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 18.4,
"implied_prob": 62.1,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "FCSB Win",
"model_prob": 73.5,
"odds": 1.61
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Arge\u0219 Pite\u0219ti",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 18.13,
"draw": 22.84,
"home": 59.02
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-07-17 18:29:10",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-07-17 18:03:10",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "FCSB",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 59.02,
"gap_pp": 14.41,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 73.44
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 22.84,
"gap_pp": -5.17,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 17.68
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 18.13,
"gap_pp": -9.25,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 8.89
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 50.65,
"gap_pp": 13.15,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 63.8
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 49.35,
"gap_pp": -13.25,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 36.1
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.61,
"early": 1.61,
"implied_closing_pct": 59.02,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 59.02,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 4.16,
"early": 4.16,
"implied_closing_pct": 22.84,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 22.84,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 5.24,
"early": 5.24,
"implied_closing_pct": 18.13,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 18.13,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.89,
"early": 1.89,
"implied_closing_pct": 50.65,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 50.65,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.94,
"early": 1.94,
"implied_closing_pct": 49.35,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 49.35,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 14.4,
"kind": "1x2_h"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 12.3
}
},
"home_xg": 2.57,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"consensus_odds": 1.61,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0594,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 5.9,
"text": "+5.9%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5902,
"max_ev": 0.0594,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 5.9,
"text": "+5.9%"
},
"model_prob": 0.7344,
"side_label": "FCSB",
"sort_key": 10203.46,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": false,
"ev_over": null,
"ev_over_display": null,
"ev_under": null,
"ev_under_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": null,
"over_prob": 63.8,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 36.1,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev_available": false,
"ev_no": null,
"ev_no_display": null,
"ev_yes": null,
"ev_yes_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": null,
"no_prob": 51.7,
"sort_key": 2050.0,
"tier": "pass",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 48.3
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 816.9,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "2-0",
"top_prob": 12.3
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 14.4,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 14.39,
"hero_label": "FCSB",
"market_prob_pct": 59.0,
"market_team": "FCSB",
"model_prob_pct": 73.4,
"model_team": "FCSB",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": true,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FCSB)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": true,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FCSB)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0594,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1823,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.2,
"execution_confidence": 49,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"headline": "Selective Lean",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_lean": "FCSB",
"outlier_detected": true,
"primary_allowed": false,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FCSB).",
"Decision strength: 7.2/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +18% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean",
"version": "v1"
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"evidence": {
"score": 80,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Strong model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Market has already priced much of the edge",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (14 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 17.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.4,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 62,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"mv_status": "warning",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Execution Confidence",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Model Value",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": true,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FCSB)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": true,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FCSB)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0594,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1823,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.2,
"execution_confidence": 49,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"headline": "Selective Lean",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_lean": "FCSB",
"outlier_detected": true,
"primary_allowed": false,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FCSB).",
"Decision strength: 7.2/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +18% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean",
"version": "v1"
},
"headline": "Selective Lean",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: FCSB 2.57 xG vs Arge\u0219 Pite\u0219ti 0.72 \u2192 FCSB 73.4%",
"Market: FCSB ~59.0% implied",
"Market Steam: FCSB +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "FCSB projects stronger on expected goals (+1.85 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 14.39,
"fair_prob": 73.41,
"label": "FCSB",
"market_prob": 59.02,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.15,
"fair_prob": 17.69,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 22.84,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.23,
"fair_prob": 8.9,
"label": "Arge\u0219 Pite\u0219ti",
"market_prob": 18.13,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 63.8,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 36.1,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 48.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 51.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 14.39,
"fair_prob_pct": 73.41,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "FCSB",
"market_prob_pct": 59.02,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "FCSB"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates FCSB\u0027s win probability at 73.4%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 59.0%, a difference of 14.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 14.39,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Favourite",
"favourite_label": "FCSB",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
"headline": "Clear favourite",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_prob_pct": 59.0,
"model_prob_pct": 73.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "high",
"paragraphs": [],
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 62,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Model and market lean the same side on FCSB, but pricing gaps warrant caution.",
"tier": "favourite",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Execution Confidence",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Model Value",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "candidate",
"label": "Candidate +EV"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: FCSB 2.57 xG vs Arge\u0219 Pite\u0219ti 0.72 \u2192 FCSB 73.4%",
"Market: FCSB ~59.0% implied",
"Market Steam: FCSB +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "FCSB projects stronger on expected goals (+1.85 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 14.39,
"hero_label": "FCSB",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on FCSB.",
"note": "The fair estimate is materially higher than current market pricing on FCSB.",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on FCSB."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors FCSB more strongly than current market pricing.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 14.39,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 55.7 pp (at 73.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 55.7,
"max_prob_pct": 73.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "High",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "FCSB",
"largest_gap_pp": 14.4,
"lead": "The model rates FCSB considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 14.4,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 14.39,
"edge_pp": 14.39,
"fair_prob_pct": 73.41,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "FCSB",
"market_prob_pct": 59.02,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": -5.15,
"edge_pp": -5.15,
"fair_prob_pct": 17.69,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 22.84,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -9.23,
"edge_pp": -9.23,
"fair_prob_pct": 8.9,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Arge\u0219 Pite\u0219ti",
"market_prob_pct": 18.13,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "The fair estimate is materially higher than current market pricing on FCSB.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers FCSB (59.0%).",
"Model and market lean the same side on FCSB, but pricing gaps warrant caution."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 62.11,
"closing_odds": 1.61,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 62.11,
"entry_odds": 1.61,
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/14",
"current_odds": 1.57,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 1.57,
"pick_team": "FCSB",
"steam_score": 19,
"steam_team_name": "FCSB",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 14.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Arge\u0219 Pite\u0219ti",
"away_team_id": 2592,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2592.webp",
"away_team_name": "Arge\u0219 Pite\u0219ti",
"away_team_slug": "arges-pitesti",
"country_code": "RO",
"country_display_name": "Romania",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ro.svg",
"country_id": 131,
"country_name": "Romania",
"fixture_id": 1565185,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 2,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 2,
"home_team_country": "Romania",
"home_team_display_name": "FCSB",
"home_team_id": 559,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/559.webp",
"home_team_name": "FCSB",
"home_team_slug": "fcsb",
"league_country": "Romania",
"league_country_display": "Romania",
"league_display_name": "Liga I Romania",
"league_id": 283,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/283.webp",
"league_name": "Liga I Romania",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-07-17 18:30:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Second Half",
"status_short": "2H",
"venue_city": "Bucharest",
"venue_name": "Arena Nationala"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 9.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1723,
"best_odd": 5.24,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0159,
"ev": -0.1332,
"implied_prob": 0.1813,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1813,
"draw": 0.2284,
"home": 0.5902
},
"model_prob": 0.0889,
"p_final": 0.1654
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1845,
"best_odd": 4.16,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0095,
"ev": -0.0894,
"implied_prob": 0.2284,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1813,
"draw": 0.2284,
"home": 0.5902
},
"model_prob": 0.1768,
"p_final": 0.2189
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4703,
"best_odd": 1.61,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0678,
"ev": 0.0594,
"implied_prob": 0.5902,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1813,
"draw": 0.2284,
"home": 0.5902
},
"model_prob": 0.7344,
"p_final": 0.658
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 5.24,
"edge": -0.102,
"ev": -0.5344,
"implied_prob": 0.1908,
"model_prob": 0.0889
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.16,
"edge": -0.0636,
"ev": -0.2646,
"implied_prob": 0.2404,
"model_prob": 0.1768
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.61,
"edge": 0.1133,
"ev": 0.1823,
"implied_prob": 0.6211,
"model_prob": 0.7344
}
},
"btts": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.29,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.3.1"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0594,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1823,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0594,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.2,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.2
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": true,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FCSB)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0594,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1823,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.2,
"execution_confidence": 49,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"headline": "Selective Lean",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_lean": "FCSB",
"outlier_detected": true,
"primary_allowed": false,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FCSB).",
"Decision strength: 7.2/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +18% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean",
"version": "v1"
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.483,
"draw_prob": 0.1768,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.7344,
"over_prob": 0.638,
"total_xg": 3.29,
"under_prob": 0.361,
"xg_diff": 1.85
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.61,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0678,
"ev": 0.0594,
"implied_prob": 0.5902,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.7344,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "FCSB"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.517,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.638,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1565185,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0594,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.0889,
"draw": 0.1768,
"home": 0.7344
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Arge\u0219 Pite\u0219ti",
"home": "FCSB"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.052348,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0594,
"implied_prob": 0.5902,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.7344,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "FCSB",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1
}
},
"fixture_id": 1565185,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-07-17T19:46:47.334281+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho FCSB & Argeș Pitești!
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Đăng ký ngay
Liga I Romania — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo București | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 23 |
| 2 | Rapid București | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 21 |
| 3 | Universitatea Craiova | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 |
| 4 | Petrolul Ploiești | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19 |
| 5 | Universitatea Cluj | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 15 |
| 6 | Farul Constanța | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 14 |
| 7 | Corvinul Hunedoara | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 8 | CFR Cluj | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 9 | Sepsi OSK Sfântu Gheorghe | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 10 | UTA Arad | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 11 | FCSB | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 12 | FC Botoșani | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 11 |
| 13 | Argeș Pitești | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 14 | Oțelul Galați | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 |
| 15 | FC Voluntari | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 16 | FK Csikszereda | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 1 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Universitatea Craiova | 10 | 24 | 9 | +15 | 20 |
| 2 | Dinamo București | 10 | 23 | 7 | +16 | 23 |
| 3 | CFR Cluj | 9 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 13 |
| 4 | Rapid București | 10 | 14 | 6 | +8 | 21 |
| 5 | FC Botoșani | 10 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 11 |
| 6 | Universitatea Cluj | 9 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 15 |
| 7 | Farul Constanța | 10 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 14 |
| 8 | UTA Arad | 10 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 12 |
| 9 | Petrolul Ploiești | 10 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 19 |
| 10 | FCSB | 10 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 12 |
| 11 | Corvinul Hunedoara | 10 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 13 |
| 12 | Oțelul Galați | 10 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 10 |
| 13 | FC Voluntari | 10 | 9 | 22 | -13 | 8 |
| 14 | Sepsi OSK Sfântu Gheorghe | 10 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 13 |
| 15 | Argeș Pitești | 10 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 11 |
| 16 | FK Csikszereda | 10 | 6 | 23 | -17 | 1 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rapid București | 10 | 4.0 | 1.6 | +2.4 | 21 |
| 2 | Farul Constanța | 10 | 1.7 | 1.0 | +0.7 | 14 |
| 3 | Dinamo București | 10 | 3.6 | 3.0 | +0.6 | 23 |
| 4 | FCSB | 10 | 1.9 | 1.4 | +0.5 | 12 |
| 5 | FC Voluntari | 10 | 2.9 | 2.6 | +0.3 | 8 |
| 6 | FK Csikszereda | 10 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 1 |
| 7 | FC Botoșani | 10 | 2.6 | 2.9 | -0.3 | 11 |
| 8 | Argeș Pitești | 10 | 1.4 | 1.9 | -0.5 | 11 |
| 9 | Universitatea Cluj | 9 | 1.0 | 1.7 | -0.7 | 15 |
| 10 | Petrolul Ploiești | 10 | 1.4 | 2.2 | -0.8 | 19 |
| 11 | Sepsi OSK Sfântu Gheorghe | 10 | 1.4 | 3.6 | -2.2 | 13 |
| 12 | Universitatea Craiova | 10 | — | — | — | 20 |
| 13 | Corvinul Hunedoara | 10 | — | — | — | 13 |
| 14 | CFR Cluj | 9 | — | — | — | 13 |
| 15 | UTA Arad | 10 | — | — | — | 12 |
| 16 | Oțelul Galați | 10 | — | — | — | 10 |
