Accrington Stanley vs Cheltenham Town Statistics & Analysis

{
  "bundle_version": 1,
  "content_hash": "7d7ff06e060cd40c782cf85c295e3e2b449792e92b7e543ebfc6e9de8fe281dc",
  "decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
  "facts": {
    "ai_fp": {
      "away_predicted_xg": 1.67,
      "away_win_prob": 0.3803,
      "away_win_prob_posterior": null,
      "bayes_applied": 0,
      "btts_no_prob": 0.334,
      "btts_yes_prob": 0.666,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2563,
      "draw_prob_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_away": 2.63,
      "fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.9,
      "fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_home": 2.75,
      "fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.63,
      "home_win_prob": 0.3634,
      "home_win_prob_posterior": null,
      "over_25_prob": 0.641,
      "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
      "under_25_prob": 0.359
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : draw or Cheltenham Town",
      "main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
      "percent_away": "45%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "10%",
      "winner_name": "Cheltenham Town"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.67,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Cheltenham Town",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
        "edge": -0.0093,
        "edge_gap": 0.0166,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.3895,
        "model_prob": 0.3801,
        "pick_type": "no_strong",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 38.0,
          "draw": 25.6,
          "home": 36.4
        },
        "reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 2.45
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 2.45,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Cheltenham Town Win",
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Away",
        "market_fair_odds": 2.57,
        "market_odds": 2.45,
        "model_odds": 2.63,
        "overround": 4.8,
        "prob_edge": -2.8,
        "value_pct": -6.8,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 0,
        "away_failed_to_score": 0,
        "away_played": 8,
        "away_score_rate": 81.2,
        "home_clean_sheet": 1,
        "home_failed_to_score": 2,
        "home_played": 8,
        "home_score_rate": 80.4,
        "no_prob": 33.4,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 66.6,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 66.6
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.67,
        "home_expected": 1.63,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 10.0
          },
          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-2",
            "prob": 8.4
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 8.2
          },
          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-2",
            "prob": 6.8
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-1",
            "prob": 6.2
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Accrington Stanley or Draw",
            "prob": 61.9
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Accrington Stanley or Cheltenham Town",
            "prob": 74.3
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Cheltenham Town",
            "prob": 63.6
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "12",
        "pick_label": "Accrington Stanley or Cheltenham Town",
        "pick_prob": 74.3
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 38.0,
        "draw_pct": 25.6,
        "home_pct": 36.3,
        "lean_key": "away",
        "lean_label": "Cheltenham Town"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 3.3,
        "away_avg_scored": 2.0,
        "confidence": "medium",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.4,
        "over_prob": 64.1,
        "pick": "Over 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 64.1,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 3.3,
        "under_prob": 35.9
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "edge": 0.9,
        "implied_prob": 36.0,
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Home",
        "market": "Accrington Stanley Win",
        "model_prob": 36.3,
        "odds": 2.78
      }
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Cheltenham Town",
      "closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
        "away": 38.95,
        "draw": 26.73,
        "home": 34.32
      },
      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "closing_capture": "PRE10",
      "closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-03 13:54:25",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "early_fetched_at": "2026-10-03 13:36:12",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "Accrington Stanley",
      "largest_move_kind": null,
      "max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
      "model_vs_closing": [
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 34.32,
          "gap_pp": 2.03,
          "kind": "1x2_h",
          "model_pct": 36.35
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 26.73,
          "gap_pp": -1.09,
          "kind": "1x2_d",
          "model_pct": 25.63
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 38.95,
          "gap_pp": -0.93,
          "kind": "1x2_a",
          "model_pct": 38.01
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 52.08,
          "gap_pp": 12.02,
          "kind": "ou_o",
          "model_pct": 64.1
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 47.92,
          "gap_pp": -12.02,
          "kind": "ou_u",
          "model_pct": 35.9
        }
      ],
      "movement": [
        {
          "closing": 2.78,
          "early": 2.78,
          "implied_closing_pct": 34.32,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 34.32,
          "kind": "1x2_h"
        },
        {
          "closing": 3.57,
          "early": 3.57,
          "implied_closing_pct": 26.73,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 26.73,
          "kind": "1x2_d"
        },
        {
          "closing": 2.45,
          "early": 2.45,
          "implied_closing_pct": 38.95,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 38.95,
          "kind": "1x2_a"
        },
        {
          "closing": 1.84,
          "early": 1.84,
          "implied_closing_pct": 52.08,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 52.08,
          "kind": "ou_o"
        },
        {
          "closing": 2.0,
          "early": 2.0,
          "implied_closing_pct": 47.92,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 47.92,
          "kind": "ou_u"
        }
      ],
      "movement_negligible": true,
      "same_bookmaker": true,
      "top_value_gap": {
        "gap_pp": 12.0,
        "kind": "ou_o"
      }
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": null,
      "lean_card": {
        "diff_pp": -2.1,
        "ev": -0.175,
        "has_edge": false,
        "label": "1-1",
        "market_odds": 8.25,
        "market_prob": 0.1212,
        "market_prob_pct": 12.1,
        "model_prob": 0.1,
        "model_prob_pct": 10.0,
        "n_bookmakers": 8,
        "status_key": "no_value"
      },
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-1",
        "prob": 10.0
      },
      "top5": [
        {
          "label": "1-1",
          "prob": 10.0
        },
        {
          "label": "1-2",
          "prob": 8.4
        },
        {
          "label": "2-1",
          "prob": 8.2
        },
        {
          "label": "2-2",
          "prob": 6.8
        },
        {
          "label": "0-1",
          "prob": 6.2
        }
      ]
    },
    "home_xg": 1.63,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "decision_layer": {
          "alpha": 0.2098,
          "available": true,
          "consensus_odds": 1.75,
          "edge": 0.0213,
          "edge_pp": 2.1,
          "market_prob": 0.5395,
          "mode": "market_first_ou",
          "model_prob": 0.641,
          "n_bookmakers": 7,
          "over": {
            "alpha": 0.2098,
            "best_odd": 1.75,
            "edge": 0.0213,
            "ev": -0.0186,
            "implied_prob": 0.5395,
            "model_prob": 0.641,
            "p_final": 0.5608
          },
          "p_final": 0.5608,
          "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
          "raw_edge_pp": 10.2,
          "raw_signal_ev": 0.1218,
          "risk_adj_ev": -0.0186,
          "under": {
            "alpha": 0.1907,
            "best_odd": 2.05,
            "edge": -0.0194,
            "ev": -0.0956,
            "implied_prob": 0.4605,
            "model_prob": 0.359,
            "p_final": 0.4412
          },
          "value_side": "over"
        },
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": 0.1282,
        "ev_over_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": 12.8,
          "text": "+12.8%"
        },
        "ev_under": -0.2425,
        "ev_under_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -24.2,
          "text": "-24.2%"
        },
        "featured": true,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": 0.1282,
        "n_bookmakers": 7,
        "over_prob": 64.1,
        "sort_key": 10265.38,
        "tier": "best",
        "under_prob": 35.9,
        "value_side": "over"
      },
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "decision_layer": {
          "alpha": 0.2152,
          "available": true,
          "consensus_odds": 1.6,
          "edge": 0.0187,
          "edge_pp": 1.9,
          "market_prob": 0.5789,
          "mode": "market_first_btts",
          "model_prob": 0.666,
          "n_bookmakers": 7,
          "no": {
            "alpha": 0.1565,
            "best_odd": 2.2,
            "edge": -0.0136,
            "ev": -0.1037,
            "implied_prob": 0.4211,
            "model_prob": 0.334,
            "p_final": 0.4074
          },
          "p_final": 0.5977,
          "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
          "raw_edge_pp": 8.7,
          "raw_signal_ev": 0.0656,
          "risk_adj_ev": -0.0437,
          "value_side": "yes",
          "yes": {
            "alpha": 0.2152,
            "best_odd": 1.6,
            "edge": 0.0187,
            "ev": -0.0437,
            "implied_prob": 0.5789,
            "model_prob": 0.666,
            "p_final": 0.5977
          }
        },
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": -0.2318,
        "ev_no_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -23.2,
          "text": "-23.2%"
        },
        "ev_yes": 0.0789,
        "ev_yes_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": 7.9,
          "text": "+7.9%"
        },
        "featured": false,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": 0.0789,
        "n_bookmakers": 7,
        "no_prob": 33.4,
        "sort_key": 10071.01,
        "tier": "best",
        "value_side": "yes",
        "yes_prob": 66.6
      },
      {
        "authority_action": "primary",
        "consensus_odds": 2.45,
        "decision": "no_bet",
        "disagreement_label": "Normal",
        "disagreement_level": "normal",
        "ev": -0.056,
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -5.6,
          "text": "-5.6%"
        },
        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.3895,
        "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
        "max_ev": -0.0212,
        "max_ev_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -2.1,
          "text": "-2.1%"
        },
        "model_prob": 0.3801,
        "raw_edge_display": "-0.9 percentage points",
        "raw_edge_pp": -0.9,
        "raw_signal_ev": -0.0688,
        "raw_signal_ev_display": "-6.9%",
        "show_primary_label": true,
        "side_label": "Cheltenham Town",
        "sort_key": 1794.7,
        "tier": "bad_ev"
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 810.0,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "1-1",
        "top_prob": 10.0
      }
    ],
    "market_intelligence": {
      "betting_signal": {
        "alert_breadth": "6/9",
        "alert_breadth_note": "6/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
        "alert_move": "\u2191 +5.8%",
        "alert_team": "Accrington Stanley",
        "alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
        "divergence_pp": 2.0,
        "has_alert": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 2.02,
        "hero_label": "Accrington Stanley",
        "market_prob_pct": 39.0,
        "market_team": "Cheltenham Town",
        "model_prob_pct": 38.0,
        "model_team": "Cheltenham Town",
        "show": true,
        "status_icon": "\u2713",
        "status_key": "aligned",
        "status_label": "Reliable prediction",
        "status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
        "steam_score": 46,
        "steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "B",
        "title": "Betting Signal"
      },
      "decision_chain": {
        "academy_links": [
          {
            "key": "steam",
            "read_min": 4,
            "title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
            "url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
          },
          {
            "key": "clv_pending",
            "read_min": 3,
            "title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
            "url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
          }
        ],
        "alignment": {
          "direction_aligned": true,
          "direction_key": "agree",
          "gap_pp": 2.0,
          "key": "agree",
          "label": "Agree",
          "model_strong": false,
          "pricing_aligned": true,
          "pricing_key": "high",
          "probability_gap_pp": 2.0,
          "summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cheltenham Town)."
        },
        "authority": {
          "action": "primary",
          "alignment": {
            "direction_aligned": true,
            "direction_key": "agree",
            "gap_pp": 2.0,
            "key": "agree",
            "label": "Agree",
            "model_strong": false,
            "pricing_aligned": true,
            "pricing_key": "high",
            "probability_gap_pp": 2.0,
            "summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cheltenham Town)."
          },
          "alignment_key": "agree",
          "best_consensus_ev": 0.1282,
          "best_outlier_ev": 0.1282,
          "confidence_band": "Moderate",
          "decision_strength": 6.1,
          "decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
          "decision_strength_v2": 8.1,
          "decision_type": "PRIMARY",
          "execution_confidence": 92,
          "extreme_disagreement": false,
          "final_verdict_audit": {
            "action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
            "action_label": "Action",
            "decision": "Primary Bet",
            "is_primary": true,
            "snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Cheltenham Town at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.0%.",
            "why": [
              {
                "text": "Decision Model identifies Cheltenham Town as the value side (38.0%)",
                "tone": "ok"
              },
              {
                "text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
                "tone": "ok"
              },
              {
                "text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
                "tone": "ok"
              },
              {
                "text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
                "tone": "bad"
              }
            ],
            "why_label": "Decision Summary"
          },
          "gap_pp": 0.9,
          "gates_failed": [],
          "has_top_pick": true,
          "headline": "Primary Bet",
          "hero_mode": "default",
          "icon": "\u2713",
          "label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
          "market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
          "model_conflict_detail": null,
          "model_lean": "Cheltenham Town",
          "no_primary_reasons": null,
          "outlier_detected": false,
          "outlier_excluded_panel": "",
          "primary_allowed": true,
          "primary_block_explain": null,
          "primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
          "primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.1/10 (display only)",
          "primary_gates": {
            "items": [
              {
                "key": "extreme_gap",
                "label": "Extreme gap",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "no"
              },
              {
                "key": "xg_calibration",
                "label": "xG calibration",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "warning"
              },
              {
                "key": "reliability",
                "label": "Rel",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "88 (\u226565)"
              },
              {
                "key": "execution",
                "label": "Exec",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "92 (\u226565)"
              },
              {
                "key": "alignment",
                "label": "Align",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "agree"
              },
              {
                "key": "consensus_ev",
                "label": "ConsEV",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "+12.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
              },
              {
                "key": "top_pick",
                "label": "Pick",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "true"
              },
              {
                "key": "validation",
                "label": "Validation",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "true"
              }
            ],
            "passed": 8,
            "total": 8
          },
          "primary_type": "market_confirmed",
          "reasons": [
            "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cheltenham Town).",
            "Decision strength: 6.1/10"
          ],
          "reliability_score": 88,
          "speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
          "strength_v2_breakdown": [
            "Base decision score (v1)",
            "Reliability supports action",
            "Market aligns with model",
            "Consensus-line +EV",
            "Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
          ],
          "subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
          "thresholds": {
            "extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
            "lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
            "lean_min_strength": 5.0,
            "min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
            "min_execution": 65,
            "min_reliability": 65,
            "min_strength": 7.0,
            "source": "db",
            "user_id": 2
          },
          "thresholds_source": "db",
          "thresholds_user_id": 2,
          "tier": "actionable",
          "validation_ok": true,
          "value_context": {
            "consensus_ev": -0.056,
            "consensus_ev_display": "-5.6%",
            "consensus_odds": 2.45,
            "disagreement_label": "Normal",
            "disagreement_level": "normal",
            "implied_prob": 0.3895,
            "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
            "model_prob": 0.3801,
            "raw_edge_display": "-0.9 percentage points",
            "raw_edge_pp": -0.9,
            "raw_implied_prob": 0.4081632653061224,
            "raw_signal_ev": -0.0688,
            "raw_signal_ev_display": "-6.9%"
          },
          "version": "v2.5",
          "xg_calibration": {
            "block_value_alert": true,
            "calibration_status": "warning",
            "deviation_pct": 23.7,
            "reasons": [
              "Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
            ],
            "recommended_action": "monitor",
            "strength_delta": -2.0,
            "uplift_away": null,
            "uplift_home": null,
            "xg_separation": {
              "band": "flat",
              "block_value_alert": true,
              "separation_score": -20,
              "strength_delta": -2.0,
              "xg_gap": 0.04
            }
          }
        },
        "bet_status": "primary",
        "books_breadth_display": "6/9",
        "breadth_ratio": 0.6666666666666666,
        "evidence": {
          "score": 88,
          "signals": [
            {
              "icon": "\u25cb",
              "key": "statistical_edge",
              "label": "No strong statistical edge",
              "status": "neutral"
            },
            {
              "icon": "\u2713",
              "key": "market_agreement",
              "label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
              "status": "pass"
            },
            {
              "icon": "\u2713",
              "key": "steam",
              "label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
              "status": "pass"
            },
            {
              "icon": "\u2713",
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation passed",
              "status": "pass"
            }
          ],
          "stars": 4,
          "tier": "high",
          "tier_label": "High"
        },
        "forecast_reliability": {
          "breakdown": [
            {
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation: Pass",
              "tone": "ok"
            },
            {
              "key": "steam",
              "label": "Market drift aligns with model",
              "tone": "ok"
            }
          ],
          "parts": {
            "alignment": 24.0,
            "data_quality": 12.0,
            "market_coverage": 6.7,
            "steam_coherence": 10.0,
            "validation": 30.0
          },
          "score": 88,
          "stars": 4,
          "tier": "high",
          "tier_label": "High"
        },
        "lean_gap_pp": 2.02,
        "market_agreement": "strong",
        "max_gap_pp": 2.02,
        "model_calibration": {
          "away_xg": 1.67,
          "calibration_status": "ok",
          "deviation_pct": 24.0,
          "elevated": false,
          "home_xg": 1.63,
          "impact_note": "",
          "league_avg_xg": 1.35,
          "peak_xg": 1.67,
          "status_label": "Within typical league range",
          "summary": "Home xG 1.63 \u00b7 Away xG 1.67 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +24%",
          "title": "Model Calibration Check"
        },
        "move_is_drift": true,
        "mv_status": "pass",
        "odds_delta_pct": 5.8,
        "steam_conflicts": false,
        "steam_move_display": "\u2191 +5.8%",
        "steam_team": "Accrington Stanley",
        "suppress_execution": false,
        "value_split": {
          "execution_confidence": {
            "label": "Betting Confidence",
            "score": 92,
            "tier": "high",
            "tier_label": "High"
          },
          "market_compatibility": {
            "label": "Market Compatibility",
            "note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
            "score": 95,
            "tier": "high",
            "tier_label": "High"
          },
          "model_edge_strength": {
            "label": "Model Signal Strength",
            "score": 38,
            "tier": "low",
            "tier_label": "Low"
          },
          "model_value": {
            "label": "Market Compatibility",
            "note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
            "score": 95,
            "tier": "high",
            "tier_label": "High"
          },
          "recommendation": {
            "action": "primary",
            "label": "Primary Bet"
          }
        },
        "verdict": {
          "agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cheltenham Town).",
          "alignment": {
            "direction_aligned": true,
            "direction_key": "agree",
            "gap_pp": 2.0,
            "key": "agree",
            "label": "Agree",
            "model_strong": false,
            "pricing_aligned": true,
            "pricing_key": "high",
            "probability_gap_pp": 2.0,
            "summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cheltenham Town)."
          },
          "authority": {
            "action": "primary",
            "alignment": {
              "direction_aligned": true,
              "direction_key": "agree",
              "gap_pp": 2.0,
              "key": "agree",
              "label": "Agree",
              "model_strong": false,
              "pricing_aligned": true,
              "pricing_key": "high",
              "probability_gap_pp": 2.0,
              "summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cheltenham Town)."
            },
            "alignment_key": "agree",
            "best_consensus_ev": 0.1282,
            "best_outlier_ev": 0.1282,
            "confidence_band": "Moderate",
            "decision_strength": 6.1,
            "decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
            "decision_strength_v2": 8.1,
            "decision_type": "PRIMARY",
            "execution_confidence": 92,
            "extreme_disagreement": false,
            "final_verdict_audit": {
              "action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
              "action_label": "Action",
              "decision": "Primary Bet",
              "is_primary": true,
              "snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Cheltenham Town at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.0%.",
              "why": [
                {
                  "text": "Decision Model identifies Cheltenham Town as the value side (38.0%)",
                  "tone": "ok"
                },
                {
                  "text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
                  "tone": "ok"
                },
                {
                  "text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
                  "tone": "ok"
                },
                {
                  "text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
                  "tone": "bad"
                }
              ],
              "why_label": "Decision Summary"
            },
            "gap_pp": 0.9,
            "gates_failed": [],
            "has_top_pick": true,
            "headline": "Primary Bet",
            "hero_mode": "default",
            "icon": "\u2713",
            "label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
            "market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
            "model_conflict_detail": null,
            "model_lean": "Cheltenham Town",
            "no_primary_reasons": null,
            "outlier_detected": false,
            "outlier_excluded_panel": "",
            "primary_allowed": true,
            "primary_block_explain": null,
            "primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
            "primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.1/10 (display only)",
            "primary_gates": {
              "items": [
                {
                  "key": "extreme_gap",
                  "label": "Extreme gap",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "no"
                },
                {
                  "key": "xg_calibration",
                  "label": "xG calibration",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "warning"
                },
                {
                  "key": "reliability",
                  "label": "Rel",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "88 (\u226565)"
                },
                {
                  "key": "execution",
                  "label": "Exec",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "92 (\u226565)"
                },
                {
                  "key": "alignment",
                  "label": "Align",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "agree"
                },
                {
                  "key": "consensus_ev",
                  "label": "ConsEV",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "+12.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
                },
                {
                  "key": "top_pick",
                  "label": "Pick",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "true"
                },
                {
                  "key": "validation",
                  "label": "Validation",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "true"
                }
              ],
              "passed": 8,
              "total": 8
            },
            "primary_type": "market_confirmed",
            "reasons": [
              "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cheltenham Town).",
              "Decision strength: 6.1/10"
            ],
            "reliability_score": 88,
            "speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
            "strength_v2_breakdown": [
              "Base decision score (v1)",
              "Reliability supports action",
              "Market aligns with model",
              "Consensus-line +EV",
              "Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
            ],
            "subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
            "thresholds": {
              "extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
              "lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
              "lean_min_strength": 5.0,
              "min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
              "min_execution": 65,
              "min_reliability": 65,
              "min_strength": 7.0,
              "source": "db",
              "user_id": 2
            },
            "thresholds_source": "db",
            "thresholds_user_id": 2,
            "tier": "actionable",
            "validation_ok": true,
            "value_context": {
              "consensus_ev": -0.056,
              "consensus_ev_display": "-5.6%",
              "consensus_odds": 2.45,
              "disagreement_label": "Normal",
              "disagreement_level": "normal",
              "implied_prob": 0.3895,
              "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
              "model_prob": 0.3801,
              "raw_edge_display": "-0.9 percentage points",
              "raw_edge_pp": -0.9,
              "raw_implied_prob": 0.4081632653061224,
              "raw_signal_ev": -0.0688,
              "raw_signal_ev_display": "-6.9%"
            },
            "version": "v2.5",
            "xg_calibration": {
              "block_value_alert": true,
              "calibration_status": "warning",
              "deviation_pct": 23.7,
              "reasons": [
                "Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
              ],
              "recommended_action": "monitor",
              "strength_delta": -2.0,
              "uplift_away": null,
              "uplift_home": null,
              "xg_separation": {
                "band": "flat",
                "block_value_alert": true,
                "separation_score": -20,
                "strength_delta": -2.0,
                "xg_gap": 0.04
              }
            }
          },
          "headline": "Primary Bet",
          "icon": "\u2713",
          "label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
          "subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
          "tier": "actionable"
        },
        "why": {
          "action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
          "bullets": [
            "Model: Accrington Stanley 1.63 xG vs Cheltenham Town 1.67 \u2192 Cheltenham Town 38.0%",
            "Market: Cheltenham Town ~39.0% implied",
            "Market Drift: Accrington Stanley odds \u2191 +5.8%"
          ],
          "one_liner": "Model and market both lean Cheltenham Town with no major conflict.",
          "title": "Why?"
        }
      },
      "edge_rows": [
        {
          "edge_pp": 2.02,
          "fair_prob": 36.34,
          "label": "Accrington Stanley",
          "market_prob": 34.32,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "home"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -1.1,
          "fair_prob": 25.63,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": 26.73,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -0.92,
          "fair_prob": 38.03,
          "label": "Cheltenham Town",
          "market_prob": 38.95,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 10.16,
          "fair_prob": 64.1,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": 53.94,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -10.16,
          "fair_prob": 35.9,
          "label": "Under 2.5",
          "market_prob": 46.06,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 8.68,
          "fair_prob": 66.6,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": 57.92,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -8.68,
          "fair_prob": 33.4,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 42.08,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "aligned",
        "edge_pp": 2.02,
        "fair_prob_pct": 36.34,
        "hero_side": "home",
        "hero_team_name": "Accrington Stanley",
        "market_prob_pct": 34.32,
        "status": "aligned",
        "steam_team_name": "Accrington Stanley"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "closing_capture": "PRE10",
        "closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.",
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "aligned",
          "edge_status": "aligned",
          "max_gap_pp": 2.02,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "",
        "divergence_level": "aligned",
        "divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
        "divergence_note": "",
        "divergence_tier": "aligned",
        "edge_label": "Aligned",
        "edge_label_key": "aligned",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Balanced match",
          "favourite_label": "Cheltenham Town",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
          "headline": "Balanced match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Strong",
          "market_direction": {
            "label": "Supports model direction",
            "positive": true
          },
          "market_prob_pct": 39.0,
          "model_prob_gap_display": "-1.0 percentage points",
          "model_prob_gap_pp": -1.0,
          "model_prob_pct": 38.0,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "low",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "pricing_convergence": {
            "gap_display": "-1.0 percentage points",
            "gap_pp": -1.0,
            "label": "High",
            "label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
          },
          "reliability_headline": "High reliability",
          "reliability_icon": "\u2713",
          "reliability_score": 88,
          "reliability_tier": "high",
          "summary": "Cheltenham Town \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Prediction Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Pass",
          "value_split": {
            "execution_confidence": {
              "label": "Betting Confidence",
              "score": 92,
              "tier": "high",
              "tier_label": "High"
            },
            "market_compatibility": {
              "label": "Market Compatibility",
              "note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
              "score": 95,
              "tier": "high",
              "tier_label": "High"
            },
            "model_edge_strength": {
              "label": "Model Signal Strength",
              "score": 38,
              "tier": "low",
              "tier_label": "Low"
            },
            "model_value": {
              "label": "Market Compatibility",
              "note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
              "score": 95,
              "tier": "high",
              "tier_label": "High"
            },
            "recommendation": {
              "action": "primary",
              "label": "Primary Bet"
            }
          },
          "why": {
            "action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
            "bullets": [
              "Model: Accrington Stanley 1.63 xG vs Cheltenham Town 1.67 \u2192 Cheltenham Town 38.0%",
              "Market: Cheltenham Town ~39.0% implied",
              "Market Drift: Accrington Stanley odds \u2191 +5.8%"
            ],
            "one_liner": "Model and market both lean Cheltenham Town with no major conflict.",
            "title": "Why?"
          }
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 2.02,
        "hero_label": "Accrington Stanley",
        "hero_side": "home",
        "market_activity": "Accrington Stanley odds lengthened \u2191 +5.8%.",
        "market_agreement": "strong",
        "market_agreement_label": "Strong",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
          ],
          "follow_up": "",
          "gap_tier": "aligned",
          "lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
          "note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Accrington Stanley.",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
            "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Accrington Stanley."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
            "Recent line movement on Accrington Stanley (\u2191 +5.8%) aligns with the pricing gap."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "market_source": "closing_1x2",
        "max_gap_pp": 2.02,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
          "status": "pass"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.7 percentage points."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 1.7,
          "max_prob_pct": 38.0,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Low",
        "overall_assessment": {
          "badge_class": "aligned",
          "largest_gap_label": "Accrington Stanley",
          "largest_gap_pp": 2.0,
          "lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
          "level": "aligned",
          "max_gap_pp": 2.0,
          "title": "Broadly Aligned"
        },
        "rows": [
          {
            "difference_pp": 2.02,
            "edge_pp": 2.02,
            "fair_prob_pct": 36.34,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Accrington Stanley",
            "market_prob_pct": 34.32,
            "side": "home",
            "signal_key": "aligned",
            "signal_label": "Aligned"
          },
          {
            "difference_pp": -1.1,
            "edge_pp": -1.1,
            "fair_prob_pct": 25.63,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 26.73,
            "side": "draw",
            "signal_key": "aligned",
            "signal_label": "Aligned"
          },
          {
            "difference_pp": -0.92,
            "edge_pp": -0.92,
            "fair_prob_pct": 38.03,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Cheltenham Town",
            "market_prob_pct": 38.95,
            "side": "away",
            "signal_key": "aligned",
            "signal_label": "Aligned"
          }
        ],
        "status": "aligned",
        "status_label": "Aligned",
        "steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Accrington Stanley.",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": false,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Cheltenham Town (39.0%).",
          "Accrington Stanley odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +5.8%, 6/9) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
          "Cheltenham Town \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 35.97,
        "closing_odds": 2.78,
        "closing_reason": "",
        "closing_status": "recorded",
        "closing_status_label": "Recorded",
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_reason": "",
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 35.97,
        "entry_odds": 2.78,
        "match_phase": "upcoming",
        "match_phase_detail": "",
        "match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
        "match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "model_validation_status": "pass",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Prediction Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE10",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 6,
        "books_reacting_detail": [
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 3,
            "bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
            "is_sharp": true,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.7%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 6.7
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 8,
            "bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
            "is_sharp": true,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.8%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 5.8
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 36,
            "bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
            "is_sharp": false,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.5%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 4.5
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 4,
            "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
            "is_sharp": true,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.4%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 4.4
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 5,
            "bookmaker_name": "SBO",
            "is_sharp": true,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.3%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 2.3
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 7,
            "bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
            "is_sharp": false,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.2%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 2.2
          }
        ],
        "books_total": 9,
        "breadth_display": "6/9",
        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
        "clv_status": "evaluated",
        "current_odds": 2.38,
        "is_drift": true,
        "move_context": "Largest move today",
        "move_display": "\u2191 +5.8%",
        "move_pct_abs": 5.8,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 147h 3m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "Betfair led repricing on Accrington Stanley (5.8%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
          "A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_delta_pct": 5.8,
        "odds_path": {
          "chart_y_labels": [
            "2.78",
            "2.51",
            "2.25"
          ],
          "display": "2.40 \u2192 2.17 \u2192 2.38",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 147h 3m",
          "pick_team": "Accrington Stanley",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "2.40"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "2.17"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "2.38"
            }
          ],
          "sparkline_points": [
            2.25,
            2.78,
            2.38
          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,13.6",
          "sparkline_trend": "volatile",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
          "summary_boxes": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "2.25"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "low",
              "value": "2.25"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "high",
              "value": "2.78"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "2.38"
            }
          ]
        },
        "open_odds": 2.25,
        "page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 6/9 sportsbooks on Accrington Stanley",
        "phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
        "phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
        "pick_team": "Accrington Stanley",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "",
        "sharp_leader": "Betfair",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "confirm",
        "signal_icon": "\u26a1",
        "signal_impact": {
          "current_odds": 2.38,
          "is_drift": true,
          "label": "Market Signal",
          "move_display": "\u2191 +5.8%",
          "open_odds": 2.25,
          "summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
          "team": "Accrington Stanley",
          "tone": "with"
        },
        "signal_key": "sharp_led",
        "signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
        "steam_score": 46,
        "steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "B",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "6/9",
        "current_odds": 2.38,
        "move_display": "\u2191 +5.8%",
        "open_odds": 2.25,
        "pick_team": "Accrington Stanley",
        "steam_score": 46,
        "steam_team_name": "Accrington Stanley",
        "steam_tier": "B"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 2.0,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "at2.away_team_slug": "cheltenham",
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_goal_display": null,
      "away_team_display_name": "Cheltenham Town",
      "away_team_id": 1372,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1372.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Cheltenham Town",
      "away_team_public_id": "0Nyn63mASnnjMZ",
      "away_team_slug": "cheltenham",
      "country_code": "GB-ENG",
      "country_display_name": "England",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
      "country_id": 49,
      "country_name": "England",
      "fixture_id": 1563779,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_goal_display": null,
      "home_team_country": "England",
      "home_team_display_name": "Accrington Stanley",
      "home_team_id": 1360,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1360.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Accrington Stanley",
      "home_team_public_id": "3nJv7spw9nmUFR",
      "home_team_slug": "accrington-st",
      "ht.home_team_slug": "accrington-st",
      "league_country": "England",
      "league_country_display": "England",
      "league_display_name": "League Two",
      "league_id": 42,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/42.webp",
      "league_name": "League Two",
      "league_public_id": "20ois23TghHC4h",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-10-03 14:00:00",
      "public_id": "1lrR3CD46fB0ib",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "score_penalty_away": null,
      "score_penalty_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": "Accrington",
      "venue_name": "The Crown Ground"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.4437,
            "best_odd": 2.45,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0041,
            "ev": -0.056,
            "implied_prob": 0.3895,
            "joint_probs": {
              "away": 0.3895,
              "draw": 0.2673,
              "home": 0.3432
            },
            "model_prob": 0.3801,
            "p_final": 0.3853
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2951,
            "best_odd": 3.57,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0032,
            "ev": -0.0573,
            "implied_prob": 0.2673,
            "joint_probs": {
              "away": 0.3895,
              "draw": 0.2673,
              "home": 0.3432
            },
            "model_prob": 0.2563,
            "p_final": 0.2641
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.4363,
            "best_odd": 2.78,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0089,
            "ev": -0.0212,
            "implied_prob": 0.3432,
            "joint_probs": {
              "away": 0.3895,
              "draw": 0.2673,
              "home": 0.3432
            },
            "model_prob": 0.3635,
            "p_final": 0.3521
          }
        },
        "1x2_outlier": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
          "away": {
            "best_odd": 2.45,
            "edge": -0.028,
            "ev": -0.0687,
            "implied_prob": 0.4082,
            "model_prob": 0.3801
          },
          "draw": {
            "best_odd": 3.57,
            "edge": -0.0238,
            "ev": -0.0849,
            "implied_prob": 0.2801,
            "model_prob": 0.2563
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "best_odd": 2.78,
            "edge": 0.0038,
            "ev": 0.0106,
            "implied_prob": 0.3597,
            "model_prob": 0.3635
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "alpha_no": 0.1565,
          "alpha_yes": 0.2152,
          "best_no_odd": 2.3,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.62,
          "btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
          "edge_no": -0.0868,
          "edge_yes": 0.0868,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.2318,
          "ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1037,
          "ev_yes": 0.0789,
          "ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0437,
          "implied_no": 0.4208,
          "implied_yes": 0.5792,
          "market_first": {
            "available": true,
            "mode": "market_first_btts",
            "n_bookmakers": 7,
            "no": {
              "alpha": 0.1565,
              "best_odd": 2.2,
              "edge": -0.0136,
              "ev": -0.1037,
              "implied_prob": 0.4211,
              "model_prob": 0.334,
              "p_final": 0.4074
            },
            "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
            "yes": {
              "alpha": 0.2152,
              "best_odd": 1.6,
              "edge": 0.0187,
              "ev": -0.0437,
              "implied_prob": 0.5789,
              "model_prob": 0.666,
              "p_final": 0.5977
            }
          },
          "n_bookmakers": 7,
          "p_final_no": 0.4074,
          "p_final_yes": 0.5977,
          "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "alpha_over": 0.2098,
          "alpha_under": 0.1907,
          "best_over_odd": 1.76,
          "best_under_odd": 2.11,
          "consensus_over_odd": 1.75,
          "consensus_under_odd": 2.05,
          "edge_over": 0.1016,
          "edge_under": -0.1016,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": 0.1282,
          "ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0186,
          "ev_under": -0.2425,
          "ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0956,
          "implied_over": 0.5394,
          "implied_over_mf": 0.5395,
          "implied_under": 0.4606,
          "implied_under_mf": 0.4605,
          "market_first": {
            "available": true,
            "mode": "market_first_ou",
            "n_bookmakers": 7,
            "over": {
              "alpha": 0.2098,
              "best_odd": 1.75,
              "edge": 0.0213,
              "ev": -0.0186,
              "implied_prob": 0.5395,
              "model_prob": 0.641,
              "p_final": 0.5608
            },
            "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
            "under": {
              "alpha": 0.1907,
              "best_odd": 2.05,
              "edge": -0.0194,
              "ev": -0.0956,
              "implied_prob": 0.4605,
              "model_prob": 0.359,
              "p_final": 0.4412
            }
          },
          "n_bookmakers": 7,
          "ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
          "p_final_over": 0.5608,
          "p_final_under": 0.4412,
          "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 3.3,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.5.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_consensus_ev": 0.1282,
      "best_outlier_ev": 0.1282,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.1282,
      "confidence": 6.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "breakdown_v2": [
          "Base decision score (v1)",
          "Reliability supports action",
          "Market aligns with model",
          "Consensus-line +EV",
          "Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
        ],
        "score": 6.1,
        "score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
        "score_v2_pre_penalty": 8.1,
        "strength_v2": true
      },
      "decision_strength_v2": {
        "breakdown": [
          "Base decision score (v1)",
          "Reliability supports action",
          "Market aligns with model",
          "Consensus-line +EV",
          "Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
        ],
        "score": 6.1,
        "score_pre_penalty": 8.1
      },
      "decision_type": "PRIMARY",
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "final_action": "primary",
      "final_decision": {
        "action": "primary",
        "alignment": {
          "direction_aligned": true,
          "direction_key": "agree",
          "gap_pp": 2.0,
          "key": "agree",
          "label": "Agree",
          "model_strong": false,
          "pricing_aligned": true,
          "pricing_key": "high",
          "probability_gap_pp": 2.0,
          "summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cheltenham Town)."
        },
        "alignment_key": "agree",
        "best_consensus_ev": 0.1282,
        "best_outlier_ev": 0.1282,
        "confidence_band": "Moderate",
        "decision_strength": 6.1,
        "decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
        "decision_strength_v2": 8.1,
        "decision_type": "PRIMARY",
        "execution_confidence": 92,
        "extreme_disagreement": false,
        "final_verdict_audit": {
          "action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
          "action_label": "Action",
          "decision": "Primary Bet",
          "is_primary": true,
          "snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Cheltenham Town at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.0%.",
          "why": [
            {
              "text": "Decision Model identifies Cheltenham Town as the value side (38.0%)",
              "tone": "ok"
            },
            {
              "text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
              "tone": "ok"
            },
            {
              "text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
              "tone": "ok"
            },
            {
              "text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
              "tone": "bad"
            }
          ],
          "why_label": "Decision Summary"
        },
        "gap_pp": 0.9,
        "gates_failed": [],
        "has_top_pick": true,
        "headline": "Primary Bet",
        "hero_mode": "default",
        "icon": "\u2713",
        "label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
        "market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
        "model_conflict_detail": null,
        "model_lean": "Cheltenham Town",
        "no_primary_reasons": null,
        "outlier_detected": false,
        "outlier_excluded_panel": "",
        "primary_allowed": true,
        "primary_block_explain": null,
        "primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
        "primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.1/10 (display only)",
        "primary_gates": {
          "items": [
            {
              "key": "extreme_gap",
              "label": "Extreme gap",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "no"
            },
            {
              "key": "xg_calibration",
              "label": "xG calibration",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "warning"
            },
            {
              "key": "reliability",
              "label": "Rel",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "88 (\u226565)"
            },
            {
              "key": "execution",
              "label": "Exec",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "92 (\u226565)"
            },
            {
              "key": "alignment",
              "label": "Align",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "agree"
            },
            {
              "key": "consensus_ev",
              "label": "ConsEV",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "+12.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
            },
            {
              "key": "top_pick",
              "label": "Pick",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "true"
            },
            {
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "true"
            }
          ],
          "passed": 8,
          "total": 8
        },
        "primary_type": "market_confirmed",
        "reasons": [
          "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cheltenham Town).",
          "Decision strength: 6.1/10"
        ],
        "reliability_score": 88,
        "speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
        "strength_v2_breakdown": [
          "Base decision score (v1)",
          "Reliability supports action",
          "Market aligns with model",
          "Consensus-line +EV",
          "Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
        ],
        "subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
        "thresholds": {
          "extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
          "lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
          "lean_min_strength": 5.0,
          "min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
          "min_execution": 65,
          "min_reliability": 65,
          "min_strength": 7.0,
          "source": "db",
          "user_id": 2
        },
        "thresholds_source": "db",
        "thresholds_user_id": 2,
        "tier": "actionable",
        "validation_ok": true,
        "value_context": {
          "consensus_ev": -0.056,
          "consensus_ev_display": "-5.6%",
          "consensus_odds": 2.45,
          "disagreement_label": "Normal",
          "disagreement_level": "normal",
          "implied_prob": 0.3895,
          "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
          "model_prob": 0.3801,
          "raw_edge_display": "-0.9 percentage points",
          "raw_edge_pp": -0.9,
          "raw_implied_prob": 0.4081632653061224,
          "raw_signal_ev": -0.0688,
          "raw_signal_ev_display": "-6.9%"
        },
        "version": "v2.5",
        "xg_calibration": {
          "block_value_alert": true,
          "calibration_status": "warning",
          "deviation_pct": 23.7,
          "reasons": [
            "Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
          ],
          "recommended_action": "monitor",
          "strength_delta": -2.0,
          "uplift_away": null,
          "uplift_home": null,
          "xg_separation": {
            "band": "flat",
            "block_value_alert": true,
            "separation_score": -20,
            "strength_delta": -2.0,
            "xg_gap": 0.04
          }
        }
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "high_scoring",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.666,
          "draw_prob": 0.2563,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.3801,
          "over_prob": 0.641,
          "total_xg": 3.3,
          "under_prob": 0.359,
          "xg_diff": 0.04
        },
        "type": "high_scoring",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "hero_mode": "default",
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "consensus_odds": 2.45,
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": -0.0041,
          "ev": -0.056,
          "implied_prob": 0.3895,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.3801,
          "side": "away",
          "side_label": "Cheltenham Town"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "decision_layer": {
            "alpha": 0.2152,
            "available": true,
            "consensus_odds": 1.6,
            "edge": 0.0187,
            "market_prob": 0.5789,
            "mode": "market_first_btts",
            "model_prob": 0.666,
            "n_bookmakers": 7,
            "no": {
              "alpha": 0.1565,
              "best_odd": 2.2,
              "edge": -0.0136,
              "ev": -0.1037,
              "implied_prob": 0.4211,
              "model_prob": 0.334,
              "p_final": 0.4074
            },
            "p_final": 0.5977,
            "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
            "risk_adj_ev": -0.0437,
            "value_side": "yes",
            "yes": {
              "alpha": 0.2152,
              "best_odd": 1.6,
              "edge": 0.0187,
              "ev": -0.0437,
              "implied_prob": 0.5789,
              "model_prob": 0.666,
              "p_final": 0.5977
            }
          },
          "edge": 0.0868,
          "ev": 0.0789,
          "implied_prob": 0.5792,
          "model_prob": 0.666,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "decision_layer": {
            "alpha": 0.2098,
            "available": true,
            "consensus_odds": 1.75,
            "edge": 0.0213,
            "market_prob": 0.5395,
            "mode": "market_first_ou",
            "model_prob": 0.641,
            "n_bookmakers": 7,
            "over": {
              "alpha": 0.2098,
              "best_odd": 1.75,
              "edge": 0.0213,
              "ev": -0.0186,
              "implied_prob": 0.5395,
              "model_prob": 0.641,
              "p_final": 0.5608
            },
            "p_final": 0.5608,
            "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
            "risk_adj_ev": -0.0186,
            "under": {
              "alpha": 0.1907,
              "best_odd": 2.05,
              "edge": -0.0194,
              "ev": -0.0956,
              "implied_prob": 0.4605,
              "model_prob": 0.359,
              "p_final": 0.4412
            },
            "value_side": "over"
          },
          "edge": 0.1016,
          "ev": 0.1282,
          "implied_prob": 0.5394,
          "model_prob": 0.641,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1563779,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.1282,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.3801,
        "draw": 0.2563,
        "home": 0.3635
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2",
        "high_total_goals"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.0789,
        "implied_prob": 0.5792,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.666,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "yes",
        "slot": "secondary"
      },
      "secondary_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.0789,
          "implied_prob": 0.5792,
          "market": "btts",
          "model_prob": 0.666,
          "not_dominant": false,
          "risk_band": "strong",
          "risk_tier": "secondary",
          "side": "yes",
          "slot": "secondary"
        }
      ],
      "show_betting_primary_label": true,
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Cheltenham Town",
        "home": "Accrington Stanley"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.10272,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.1282,
        "implied_prob": 0.5394,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.641,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "over",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 2,
      "value_context_1x2": {
        "consensus_ev": -0.056,
        "consensus_ev_display": "-5.6%",
        "consensus_odds": 2.45,
        "disagreement_label": "Normal",
        "disagreement_level": "normal",
        "implied_prob": 0.3895,
        "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
        "model_prob": 0.3801,
        "raw_edge_display": "-0.9 percentage points",
        "raw_edge_pp": -0.9,
        "raw_implied_prob": 0.4081632653061224,
        "raw_signal_ev": -0.0688,
        "raw_signal_ev_display": "-6.9%"
      }
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1563779,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-10-03T13:54:27.388090+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}