Norwich City vs Southampton Statistics & Analysis

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  "decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
  "facts": {
    "ai_fp": {
      "afp_away_win_prob": 0.5109,
      "afp_draw_prob": 0.2505,
      "afp_home_win_prob": 0.2386,
      "away_predicted_xg": 1.95,
      "away_win_prob": 0.5109,
      "away_win_prob_posterior": 0.5109,
      "bayes_applied": 1,
      "btts_no_prob": 0.39,
      "btts_yes_prob": 0.61,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2505,
      "draw_prob_posterior": 0.2505,
      "fair_odds_away": 1.96,
      "fair_odds_away_posterior": 1.96,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.99,
      "fair_odds_draw_posterior": 3.99,
      "fair_odds_home": 4.19,
      "fair_odds_home_posterior": 4.19,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.19,
      "home_win_prob": 0.2386,
      "home_win_prob_posterior": 0.2386,
      "over_25_prob": 0.607,
      "prediction_confidence": "high",
      "under_25_prob": 0.393
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or Southampton and +1.5 goals",
      "main_pick_display": "Winner : Southampton",
      "percent_away": "45%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "10%",
      "winner_name": "Southampton"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.95,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Southampton",
      "confidence": 51.0,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "medium",
        "display_text": "Winner : Southampton",
        "edge": 0.1531,
        "edge_gap": 0.2597,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.3573,
        "model_prob": 0.5105,
        "pick_type": "winner",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 51.0,
          "draw": 25.1,
          "home": 23.9
        },
        "reason": "",
        "selection": "away",
        "selection_name": "Southampton"
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 2.73
        },
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
          "odd": 2.7
        },
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Betano",
          "odd": 2.7
        },
        {
          "affi_link": "https://banners.dfbanners.com/redirect.aspx?pid=79572\u0026bid=19634\u0026redirectURL=http://www.dafabet.com/",
          "bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
          "odd": 2.65
        },
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
          "odd": 2.62
        },
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
          "odd": 2.62
        },
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
          "odd": 2.6
        },
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "SBO",
          "odd": 2.56
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": "#f44336",
      "risk_key": "high_risk",
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 2.73,
        "bookmaker_id": 4,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Southampton Win",
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Away",
        "market_fair_odds": 2.8,
        "market_odds": 2.62,
        "model_odds": 1.96,
        "overround": 6.6,
        "prob_edge": 14.4,
        "value_pct": 39.3,
        "value_rating": "strong_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 0,
        "away_failed_to_score": 0,
        "away_played": 8,
        "away_score_rate": 85.8,
        "home_clean_sheet": 0,
        "home_failed_to_score": 2,
        "home_played": 8,
        "home_score_rate": 69.6,
        "no_prob": 39.0,
        "pick": "No",
        "pick_prob": 61.0,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 61.0
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.95,
        "home_expected": 1.19,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 10.0
          },
          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-2",
            "prob": 9.8
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-1",
            "prob": 8.4
          },
          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-2",
            "prob": 8.2
          },
          {
            "away": 3,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-3",
            "prob": 6.4
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Norwich City or Draw",
            "prob": 49.0
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Norwich City or Southampton",
            "prob": 75.0
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Southampton",
            "prob": 76.2
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "X2",
        "pick_label": "Draw or Southampton",
        "pick_prob": 76.2
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 51.1,
        "draw_pct": 25.1,
        "home_pct": 23.9,
        "lean_key": "away",
        "lean_label": "Southampton"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": "+1.5",
        "avg_total": 3.14,
        "away_avg_scored": 2.4,
        "confidence": "medium",
        "home_avg_scored": 2.0,
        "over_prob": 60.7,
        "pick": "Over 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 60.7,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "total_expected": 3.14,
        "under_prob": 39.3
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 4,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "edge": 39.5,
        "implied_prob": 36.6,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Away",
        "market": "Southampton Win",
        "model_prob": 51.1,
        "odds": 2.73
      }
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "has_data": false
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": null,
      "lean_card": {
        "diff_pp": -3.0,
        "ev": -0.23,
        "has_edge": false,
        "label": "1-1",
        "market_odds": 7.7,
        "market_prob": 0.1299,
        "market_prob_pct": 13.0,
        "model_prob": 0.1,
        "model_prob_pct": 10.0,
        "n_bookmakers": 8,
        "status_key": "no_value"
      },
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-1",
        "prob": 10.0
      },
      "top5": [
        {
          "label": "1-1",
          "prob": 10.0
        },
        {
          "label": "1-2",
          "prob": 9.8
        },
        {
          "label": "0-1",
          "prob": 8.4
        },
        {
          "label": "0-2",
          "prob": 8.2
        },
        {
          "label": "1-3",
          "prob": 6.4
        }
      ]
    },
    "home_xg": 1.19,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "authority_action": "primary",
        "consensus_odds": 2.62,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "disagreement_label": "Strong",
        "disagreement_level": "strong",
        "ev": 0.0765,
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": 7.6,
          "text": "+7.6%"
        },
        "featured": true,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.3579,
        "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
        "max_ev": 0.0765,
        "max_ev_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": 7.6,
          "text": "+7.6%"
        },
        "model_prob": 0.5105,
        "raw_edge_display": "+15.3 percentage points",
        "raw_edge_pp": 15.3,
        "raw_signal_ev": 0.3375,
        "raw_signal_ev_display": "+33.8%",
        "show_primary_label": true,
        "side_label": "Southampton",
        "sort_key": 10218.85,
        "tier": "best"
      },
      {
        "decision": "small_edge",
        "decision_layer": {
          "alpha": 0.4008,
          "available": true,
          "consensus_odds": 2.565,
          "edge": 0.0122,
          "edge_pp": 1.2,
          "market_prob": 0.3596,
          "mode": "market_first_btts",
          "model_prob": 0.39,
          "n_bookmakers": 7,
          "no": {
            "alpha": 0.4008,
            "best_odd": 2.565,
            "edge": 0.0122,
            "ev": -0.0464,
            "implied_prob": 0.3596,
            "model_prob": 0.39,
            "p_final": 0.3718
          },
          "p_final": 0.3718,
          "prediction_confidence": "high",
          "raw_edge_pp": 3.0,
          "raw_signal_ev": 0.0004,
          "risk_adj_ev": -0.0464,
          "value_side": "no",
          "yes": {
            "alpha": 0.5511,
            "best_odd": 1.44,
            "edge": -0.0168,
            "ev": -0.1019,
            "implied_prob": 0.6404,
            "model_prob": 0.61,
            "p_final": 0.6237
          }
        },
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": 0.0257,
        "ev_no_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": 2.6,
          "text": "+2.6%"
        },
        "ev_yes": -0.1033,
        "ev_yes_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -10.3,
          "text": "-10.3%"
        },
        "featured": false,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": 0.0257,
        "n_bookmakers": 7,
        "no_prob": 39.0,
        "sort_key": 5220.56,
        "tier": "lean",
        "value_side": "no",
        "yes_prob": 61.0
      },
      {
        "decision": "lean",
        "decision_layer": {
          "alpha": 0.5754,
          "available": true,
          "consensus_odds": 1.525,
          "edge": -0.0014,
          "edge_pp": -0.1,
          "market_prob": 0.6095,
          "mode": "market_first_ou",
          "model_prob": 0.607,
          "n_bookmakers": 7,
          "over": {
            "alpha": 0.5754,
            "best_odd": 1.525,
            "edge": -0.0014,
            "ev": -0.0727,
            "implied_prob": 0.6095,
            "model_prob": 0.607,
            "p_final": 0.6081
          },
          "p_final": 0.6081,
          "prediction_confidence": "high",
          "raw_edge_pp": -0.3,
          "raw_signal_ev": -0.0743,
          "risk_adj_ev": -0.0727,
          "under": {
            "alpha": 0.4184,
            "best_odd": 2.38,
            "edge": 0.001,
            "ev": -0.0681,
            "implied_prob": 0.3905,
            "model_prob": 0.393,
            "p_final": 0.3916
          },
          "value_side": "over"
        },
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": -0.0288,
        "ev_over_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -2.9,
          "text": "-2.9%"
        },
        "ev_under": -0.0372,
        "ev_under_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -3.7,
          "text": "-3.7%"
        },
        "featured": false,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": -0.0288,
        "n_bookmakers": 7,
        "over_prob": 60.7,
        "sort_key": 1792.8,
        "tier": "bad_ev",
        "under_prob": 39.3,
        "value_side": "over"
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 810.0,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "1-1",
        "top_prob": 10.0
      }
    ],
    "market_intelligence": {
      "betting_signal": {
        "alert_breadth": "10/10",
        "alert_breadth_note": "10/10 sportsbooks confirmed",
        "alert_move": "\u2191 +8.7%",
        "alert_team": "Norwich City",
        "alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
        "divergence_pp": 0.0,
        "has_alert": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": null,
        "hero_label": "",
        "market_prob_pct": null,
        "market_team": "Southampton",
        "model_prob_pct": 51.1,
        "model_team": "Southampton",
        "show": true,
        "status_icon": "\u2713",
        "status_key": "aligned",
        "status_label": "Reliable prediction",
        "status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
        "steam_score": 42,
        "steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "B",
        "title": "Betting Signal"
      },
      "decision_chain": {
        "academy_links": [
          {
            "key": "steam",
            "read_min": 4,
            "title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
            "url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
          },
          {
            "key": "clv_pending",
            "read_min": 3,
            "title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
            "url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
          }
        ],
        "alignment": {
          "direction_aligned": true,
          "direction_key": "agree",
          "gap_pp": 15.3,
          "key": "agree",
          "label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
          "model_strong": false,
          "pricing_aligned": false,
          "pricing_key": "low",
          "probability_gap_pp": 15.3,
          "summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Southampton), but pricing still diverges by 15.3 pp."
        },
        "authority": {
          "action": "primary",
          "alignment": {
            "direction_aligned": true,
            "direction_key": "agree",
            "gap_pp": 15.3,
            "key": "agree",
            "label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
            "model_strong": false,
            "pricing_aligned": false,
            "pricing_key": "low",
            "probability_gap_pp": 15.3,
            "summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Southampton), but pricing still diverges by 15.3 pp."
          },
          "alignment_key": "agree",
          "best_consensus_ev": 0.0765,
          "best_outlier_ev": 0.3936,
          "confidence_band": "High",
          "decision_strength": 7.5,
          "decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
          "decision_strength_v2": 7.0,
          "decision_type": "PRIMARY",
          "execution_confidence": 73,
          "extreme_disagreement": false,
          "final_verdict_audit": {
            "action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
            "action_label": "Action",
            "decision": "Primary Bet",
            "is_primary": true,
            "snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Southampton at 51.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.8%.",
            "why": [
              {
                "text": "Decision Model identifies Southampton as the value side (51.0%)",
                "tone": "ok"
              },
              {
                "text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
                "tone": "ok"
              },
              {
                "text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
                "tone": "ok"
              }
            ],
            "why_label": "Decision Summary"
          },
          "gap_pp": 15.3,
          "gates_failed": [],
          "has_top_pick": true,
          "headline": "Primary Bet",
          "hero_mode": "default",
          "icon": "\u2713",
          "label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
          "market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
          "model_conflict_detail": null,
          "model_lean": "Southampton",
          "no_primary_reasons": null,
          "outlier_detected": true,
          "outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Southampton \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.73 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +39% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1563200 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.73 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +7.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
          "primary_allowed": true,
          "primary_block_explain": null,
          "primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
          "primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.5/10 (display only)",
          "primary_gates": {
            "items": [
              {
                "key": "extreme_gap",
                "label": "Extreme gap",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "no"
              },
              {
                "key": "xg_calibration",
                "label": "xG calibration",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "ok"
              },
              {
                "key": "reliability",
                "label": "Rel",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "70 (\u226565)"
              },
              {
                "key": "execution",
                "label": "Exec",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "73 (\u226565)"
              },
              {
                "key": "alignment",
                "label": "Align",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "agree"
              },
              {
                "key": "consensus_ev",
                "label": "ConsEV",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "+7.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
              },
              {
                "key": "top_pick",
                "label": "Pick",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "true"
              },
              {
                "key": "validation",
                "label": "Validation",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "true"
              }
            ],
            "passed": 8,
            "total": 8
          },
          "primary_type": "market_confirmed",
          "reasons": [
            "Model and market favour the same side (Southampton), but pricing still diverges by 15.3 pp.",
            "Decision strength: 7.5/10",
            "Outlier price +39% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
          ],
          "reliability_score": 70,
          "speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
          "strength_v2_breakdown": [
            "Base decision score (v1)",
            "Reliability supports action",
            "Market aligns with model",
            "Consensus-line +EV",
            "Clear xG separation"
          ],
          "subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
          "thresholds": {
            "extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
            "lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
            "lean_min_strength": 5.0,
            "min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
            "min_execution": 65,
            "min_reliability": 65,
            "min_strength": 7.0,
            "source": "db",
            "user_id": 2
          },
          "thresholds_source": "db",
          "thresholds_user_id": 2,
          "tier": "actionable",
          "validation_ok": true,
          "value_context": {
            "consensus_ev": 0.0765,
            "consensus_ev_display": "+7.6%",
            "consensus_odds": 2.62,
            "disagreement_label": "Strong",
            "disagreement_level": "strong",
            "implied_prob": 0.3579,
            "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
            "model_prob": 0.5105,
            "raw_edge_display": "+15.3 percentage points",
            "raw_edge_pp": 15.3,
            "raw_implied_prob": 0.38167938931297707,
            "raw_signal_ev": 0.3375,
            "raw_signal_ev_display": "+33.8%"
          },
          "version": "v2.5",
          "xg_calibration": {
            "block_value_alert": false,
            "calibration_status": "ok",
            "deviation_pct": 44.4,
            "reasons": [
              "Clear xG separation gap=0.76"
            ],
            "recommended_action": "ok",
            "strength_delta": 0.5,
            "uplift_away": null,
            "uplift_home": null,
            "xg_separation": {
              "band": "clear",
              "block_value_alert": false,
              "separation_score": 5,
              "strength_delta": 0.5,
              "xg_gap": 0.76
            }
          }
        },
        "bet_status": "primary",
        "books_breadth_display": "10/10",
        "breadth_ratio": 1.0,
        "evidence": {
          "score": 86,
          "signals": [
            {
              "icon": "!",
              "key": "statistical_edge",
              "label": "Moderate model lean",
              "status": "caution"
            },
            {
              "icon": "!",
              "key": "market_agreement",
              "label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
              "status": "caution"
            },
            {
              "icon": "\u2713",
              "key": "steam",
              "label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
              "status": "pass"
            },
            {
              "icon": "!",
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation pending",
              "status": "caution"
            }
          ],
          "stars": 4,
          "tier": "high",
          "tier_label": "High"
        },
        "forecast_reliability": {
          "breakdown": [
            {
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation: Pending",
              "tone": "ok"
            },
            {
              "key": "steam",
              "label": "Market drift aligns with model",
              "tone": "ok"
            }
          ],
          "parts": {
            "alignment": 25.0,
            "data_quality": 12.0,
            "market_coverage": 10.0,
            "steam_coherence": 10.0,
            "validation": 8.0
          },
          "score": 70,
          "stars": 3,
          "tier": "high",
          "tier_label": "High"
        },
        "lean_gap_pp": 0.0,
        "market_agreement": "unknown",
        "max_gap_pp": 0.0,
        "model_calibration": {
          "away_xg": 1.95,
          "calibration_status": "ok",
          "deviation_pct": 44.0,
          "elevated": false,
          "home_xg": 1.19,
          "impact_note": "",
          "league_avg_xg": 1.35,
          "peak_xg": 1.95,
          "status_label": "Within typical league range",
          "summary": "Home xG 1.19 \u00b7 Away xG 1.95 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +44%",
          "title": "Model Calibration Check"
        },
        "move_is_drift": true,
        "mv_status": "pending",
        "odds_delta_pct": 8.7,
        "steam_conflicts": false,
        "steam_move_display": "\u2191 +8.7%",
        "steam_team": "Norwich City",
        "suppress_execution": false,
        "value_split": {
          "execution_confidence": {
            "label": "Betting Confidence",
            "score": 73,
            "tier": "high",
            "tier_label": "High"
          },
          "market_compatibility": {
            "label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
            "note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
            "score": 23,
            "tier": "not_reliable",
            "tier_label": "Not reliable"
          },
          "model_edge_strength": {
            "label": "Model Signal Strength",
            "score": 51,
            "tier": "moderate",
            "tier_label": "Moderate"
          },
          "model_value": {
            "label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
            "note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
            "score": 23,
            "tier": "not_reliable",
            "tier_label": "Not reliable"
          },
          "recommendation": {
            "action": "primary",
            "label": "Primary Bet"
          }
        },
        "verdict": {
          "agree_note": "Model and market favour the same side (Southampton), but pricing still diverges by 15.3 pp.",
          "alignment": {
            "direction_aligned": true,
            "direction_key": "agree",
            "gap_pp": 15.3,
            "key": "agree",
            "label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
            "model_strong": false,
            "pricing_aligned": false,
            "pricing_key": "low",
            "probability_gap_pp": 15.3,
            "summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Southampton), but pricing still diverges by 15.3 pp."
          },
          "authority": {
            "action": "primary",
            "alignment": {
              "direction_aligned": true,
              "direction_key": "agree",
              "gap_pp": 15.3,
              "key": "agree",
              "label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
              "model_strong": false,
              "pricing_aligned": false,
              "pricing_key": "low",
              "probability_gap_pp": 15.3,
              "summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Southampton), but pricing still diverges by 15.3 pp."
            },
            "alignment_key": "agree",
            "best_consensus_ev": 0.0765,
            "best_outlier_ev": 0.3936,
            "confidence_band": "High",
            "decision_strength": 7.5,
            "decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
            "decision_strength_v2": 7.0,
            "decision_type": "PRIMARY",
            "execution_confidence": 73,
            "extreme_disagreement": false,
            "final_verdict_audit": {
              "action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
              "action_label": "Action",
              "decision": "Primary Bet",
              "is_primary": true,
              "snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Southampton at 51.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.8%.",
              "why": [
                {
                  "text": "Decision Model identifies Southampton as the value side (51.0%)",
                  "tone": "ok"
                },
                {
                  "text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
                  "tone": "ok"
                },
                {
                  "text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
                  "tone": "ok"
                }
              ],
              "why_label": "Decision Summary"
            },
            "gap_pp": 15.3,
            "gates_failed": [],
            "has_top_pick": true,
            "headline": "Primary Bet",
            "hero_mode": "default",
            "icon": "\u2713",
            "label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
            "market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
            "model_conflict_detail": null,
            "model_lean": "Southampton",
            "no_primary_reasons": null,
            "outlier_detected": true,
            "outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Southampton \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.73 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +39% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1563200 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.73 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +7.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
            "primary_allowed": true,
            "primary_block_explain": null,
            "primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
            "primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.5/10 (display only)",
            "primary_gates": {
              "items": [
                {
                  "key": "extreme_gap",
                  "label": "Extreme gap",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "no"
                },
                {
                  "key": "xg_calibration",
                  "label": "xG calibration",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "ok"
                },
                {
                  "key": "reliability",
                  "label": "Rel",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "70 (\u226565)"
                },
                {
                  "key": "execution",
                  "label": "Exec",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "73 (\u226565)"
                },
                {
                  "key": "alignment",
                  "label": "Align",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "agree"
                },
                {
                  "key": "consensus_ev",
                  "label": "ConsEV",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "+7.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
                },
                {
                  "key": "top_pick",
                  "label": "Pick",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "true"
                },
                {
                  "key": "validation",
                  "label": "Validation",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "true"
                }
              ],
              "passed": 8,
              "total": 8
            },
            "primary_type": "market_confirmed",
            "reasons": [
              "Model and market favour the same side (Southampton), but pricing still diverges by 15.3 pp.",
              "Decision strength: 7.5/10",
              "Outlier price +39% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
            ],
            "reliability_score": 70,
            "speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
            "strength_v2_breakdown": [
              "Base decision score (v1)",
              "Reliability supports action",
              "Market aligns with model",
              "Consensus-line +EV",
              "Clear xG separation"
            ],
            "subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
            "thresholds": {
              "extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
              "lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
              "lean_min_strength": 5.0,
              "min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
              "min_execution": 65,
              "min_reliability": 65,
              "min_strength": 7.0,
              "source": "db",
              "user_id": 2
            },
            "thresholds_source": "db",
            "thresholds_user_id": 2,
            "tier": "actionable",
            "validation_ok": true,
            "value_context": {
              "consensus_ev": 0.0765,
              "consensus_ev_display": "+7.6%",
              "consensus_odds": 2.62,
              "disagreement_label": "Strong",
              "disagreement_level": "strong",
              "implied_prob": 0.3579,
              "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
              "model_prob": 0.5105,
              "raw_edge_display": "+15.3 percentage points",
              "raw_edge_pp": 15.3,
              "raw_implied_prob": 0.38167938931297707,
              "raw_signal_ev": 0.3375,
              "raw_signal_ev_display": "+33.8%"
            },
            "version": "v2.5",
            "xg_calibration": {
              "block_value_alert": false,
              "calibration_status": "ok",
              "deviation_pct": 44.4,
              "reasons": [
                "Clear xG separation gap=0.76"
              ],
              "recommended_action": "ok",
              "strength_delta": 0.5,
              "uplift_away": null,
              "uplift_home": null,
              "xg_separation": {
                "band": "clear",
                "block_value_alert": false,
                "separation_score": 5,
                "strength_delta": 0.5,
                "xg_gap": 0.76
              }
            }
          },
          "headline": "Primary Bet",
          "icon": "\u2713",
          "label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
          "subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
          "tier": "actionable"
        },
        "why": {
          "action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
          "bullets": [
            "Model: Norwich City 1.19 xG vs Southampton 1.95 \u2192 Southampton 51.1%",
            "Market Drift: Norwich City odds \u2191 +8.7%"
          ],
          "one_liner": "Southampton projects stronger on expected goals (+0.76 xG edge).",
          "title": "Why?"
        }
      },
      "edge_rows": [
        {
          "edge_pp": null,
          "fair_prob": 23.86,
          "label": "Norwich City",
          "market_prob": null,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "home"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": null,
          "fair_prob": 25.05,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": null,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": null,
          "fair_prob": 51.09,
          "label": "Southampton",
          "market_prob": null,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -0.25,
          "fair_prob": 60.7,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": 60.95,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 0.25,
          "fair_prob": 39.3,
          "label": "Under 2.5",
          "market_prob": 39.05,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -3.09,
          "fair_prob": 61.0,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": 64.09,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 3.09,
          "fair_prob": 39.0,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 35.91,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {},
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "closing_capture": "",
        "closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
        "comparison_available": false,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "comparison_summary": "",
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "aligned",
          "edge_status": "unknown",
          "max_gap_pp": 0.0,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "",
        "divergence_level": "aligned",
        "divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
        "divergence_note": "",
        "divergence_tier": "aligned",
        "edge_label": "",
        "edge_label_key": "",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
          "favourite_label": "Southampton",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
          "headline": "Slight edge match",
          "market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
          "market_direction": {
            "label": "Supports model direction",
            "positive": true
          },
          "market_prob_pct": 35.8,
          "model_prob_gap_display": "+15.3 percentage points",
          "model_prob_gap_pp": 15.3,
          "model_prob_pct": 51.1,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "pricing_convergence": {
            "gap_display": "+15.3 percentage points",
            "gap_pp": 15.3,
            "label": "Low convergence",
            "label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
          },
          "reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
          "reliability_icon": "\u2713",
          "reliability_score": 70,
          "reliability_tier": "moderate",
          "summary": "Southampton \u2014 market direction supports the model, but pricing still diverges (+15.3 pp).",
          "tier": "slight_edge",
          "title": "Prediction Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Pending",
          "value_split": {
            "execution_confidence": {
              "label": "Betting Confidence",
              "score": 73,
              "tier": "high",
              "tier_label": "High"
            },
            "market_compatibility": {
              "label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
              "note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
              "score": 23,
              "tier": "not_reliable",
              "tier_label": "Not reliable"
            },
            "model_edge_strength": {
              "label": "Model Signal Strength",
              "score": 51,
              "tier": "moderate",
              "tier_label": "Moderate"
            },
            "model_value": {
              "label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
              "note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
              "score": 23,
              "tier": "not_reliable",
              "tier_label": "Not reliable"
            },
            "recommendation": {
              "action": "primary",
              "label": "Primary Bet"
            }
          },
          "why": {
            "action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
            "bullets": [
              "Model: Norwich City 1.19 xG vs Southampton 1.95 \u2192 Southampton 51.1%",
              "Market Drift: Norwich City odds \u2191 +8.7%"
            ],
            "one_liner": "Southampton projects stronger on expected goals (+0.76 xG edge).",
            "title": "Why?"
          }
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
          "tier": "medium",
          "tier_label": "Medium"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
        "has_market_probs": false,
        "hero_edge_pp": null,
        "hero_label": "",
        "hero_side": null,
        "market_activity": "Norwich City odds lengthened \u2191 +8.7%.",
        "market_agreement": "unknown",
        "market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
        "market_interpretation": {},
        "market_narrative": {},
        "market_source": "closing_1x2",
        "max_gap_pp": 0.0,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_pending",
          "status": "pending"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Pending",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 26.0 pp (at 51.1%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 26.0,
          "max_prob_pct": 51.1,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "medium",
          "tier_label": "Medium"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
        "overall_assessment": {
          "badge_class": "aligned",
          "largest_gap_label": "",
          "largest_gap_pp": null,
          "lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
          "level": "aligned",
          "max_gap_pp": 0.0,
          "title": "Broadly Aligned"
        },
        "rows": [
          {
            "difference_pp": null,
            "edge_pp": null,
            "fair_prob_pct": 23.86,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Norwich City",
            "market_prob_pct": null,
            "side": "home",
            "signal_key": "",
            "signal_label": ""
          },
          {
            "difference_pp": null,
            "edge_pp": null,
            "fair_prob_pct": 25.05,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": null,
            "side": "draw",
            "signal_key": "",
            "signal_label": ""
          },
          {
            "difference_pp": null,
            "edge_pp": null,
            "fair_prob_pct": 51.09,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Southampton",
            "market_prob_pct": null,
            "side": "away",
            "signal_key": "",
            "signal_label": ""
          }
        ],
        "status": "unknown",
        "status_label": "\u2014",
        "steam_note": "",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": "",
        "paragraphs": [
          "The statistical model leans Southampton (51.1%).",
          "Norwich City odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +8.7%, 10/10) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
          "Southampton \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": null,
        "closing_odds": null,
        "closing_reason": "No complete pre-match closing snapshot",
        "closing_status": "unavailable",
        "closing_status_label": "Unavailable",
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": null,
        "clv_reason": "Requires closing line after full time",
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "closing_unavailable",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Closing unavailable",
        "entry_implied_pct": 40.0,
        "entry_odds": 2.5,
        "match_phase": "live",
        "match_phase_detail": "1H",
        "match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
        "match_phase_label": "Live",
        "model_validation_label": "Pending",
        "model_validation_status": "pending",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Prediction Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "pending"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "unavailable"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 10,
        "books_reacting_detail": [
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 3,
            "bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
            "is_sharp": true,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.1%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 9.1
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 2,
            "bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
            "is_sharp": false,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.0%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 9.0
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 36,
            "bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
            "is_sharp": false,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.9%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 8.9
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 8,
            "bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
            "is_sharp": true,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.7%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 8.7
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 9,
            "bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
            "is_sharp": false,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.7%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 8.7
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 11,
            "bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
            "is_sharp": false,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.0%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 8.0
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 7,
            "bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
            "is_sharp": false,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.7%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 6.7
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 5,
            "bookmaker_name": "SBO",
            "is_sharp": true,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.4%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 6.4
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 4,
            "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
            "is_sharp": true,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.4%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 5.4
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 32,
            "bookmaker_name": "Betano",
            "is_sharp": false,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.1%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 2.1
          }
        ],
        "books_total": 10,
        "breadth_display": "10/10",
        "clv_label": "Waiting for Close",
        "clv_status": "waiting",
        "current_odds": 2.5,
        "is_drift": true,
        "move_context": "Largest move today",
        "move_display": "\u2191 +8.7%",
        "move_pct_abs": 8.7,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 86h 12m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "Multi-book drift on Norwich City (8.7%, 10/10) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
          "Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_delta_pct": 8.7,
        "odds_path": {
          "chart_y_labels": [
            "2.50",
            "2.40",
            "2.30"
          ],
          "display": "2.54 \u2192 2.18 \u2192 2.50",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 86h 12m",
          "pick_team": "Norwich City",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "2.54"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "2.18"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "2.50"
            }
          ],
          "sparkline_points": [
            2.3,
            2.5
          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
          "sparkline_trend": "up",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
          "summary_boxes": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "2.30"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "low",
              "value": "2.30"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "high",
              "value": "2.50"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "2.50"
            }
          ]
        },
        "open_odds": 2.3,
        "page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 10/10 sportsbooks on Norwich City",
        "phase_label": "Market drift",
        "phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
        "pick_team": "Norwich City",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "",
        "sharp_leader": "Betfair",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "fade",
        "signal_icon": "\u2198",
        "signal_impact": {
          "current_odds": 2.5,
          "is_drift": true,
          "label": "Market Signal",
          "move_display": "\u2191 +8.7%",
          "open_odds": 2.3,
          "summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
          "team": "Norwich City",
          "tone": "with"
        },
        "signal_key": "market_drift",
        "signal_label": "Drift",
        "steam_score": 42,
        "steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "B",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "10/10",
        "current_odds": 2.5,
        "move_display": "\u2191 +8.7%",
        "open_odds": 2.3,
        "pick_team": "Norwich City",
        "steam_score": 42,
        "steam_team_name": "Norwich City",
        "steam_tier": "B"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {},
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "at2.away_team_slug": "southampton",
      "away_expected_goals": 0.16,
      "away_goal_display": 0,
      "away_team_display_name": "Southampton",
      "away_team_id": 41,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/41.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Southampton",
      "away_team_public_id": "40JxaovzUCeKTw",
      "away_team_slug": "southampton",
      "country_code": "GB-ENG",
      "country_display_name": "England",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
      "country_id": 49,
      "country_name": "England",
      "fixture_id": 1563200,
      "goals_away": 0,
      "goals_home": 0,
      "home_expected_goals": 0.17,
      "home_goal_display": 0,
      "home_team_country": "England",
      "home_team_display_name": "Norwich City",
      "home_team_id": 71,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/71.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Norwich City",
      "home_team_public_id": "0oPymIPH23pCAG",
      "home_team_slug": "norwich",
      "ht.home_team_slug": "norwich",
      "league_country": "England",
      "league_country_display": "England",
      "league_display_name": "Gi\u1ea3i H\u1ea1ng Nh\u1ea5t Anh",
      "league_id": 40,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/40.webp",
      "league_name": "Gi\u1ea3i H\u1ea1ng Nh\u1ea5t Anh",
      "league_public_id": "0hAgPj4dcuGGAo",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-10-14 18:45:00",
      "public_id": "5kz14uKdfEkCPD",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "score_penalty_away": null,
      "score_penalty_home": null,
      "status_long": "First Half",
      "status_short": "1H",
      "venue_city": "Norwich City",
      "venue_name": "Carrow Road"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 7.5
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.347,
            "best_odd": 2.62,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0529,
            "ev": 0.0765,
            "implied_prob": 0.3579,
            "joint_probs": {
              "away": 0.3579,
              "draw": 0.2569,
              "home": 0.3851
            },
            "model_prob": 0.5105,
            "p_final": 0.4109
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2972,
            "best_odd": 3.65,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0018,
            "ev": -0.0689,
            "implied_prob": 0.2569,
            "joint_probs": {
              "away": 0.3579,
              "draw": 0.2569,
              "home": 0.3851
            },
            "model_prob": 0.2508,
            "p_final": 0.2551
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.3512,
            "best_odd": 2.435,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0514,
            "ev": -0.1874,
            "implied_prob": 0.3851,
            "joint_probs": {
              "away": 0.3579,
              "draw": 0.2569,
              "home": 0.3851
            },
            "model_prob": 0.2388,
            "p_final": 0.3337
          }
        },
        "1x2_outlier": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
          "away": {
            "best_odd": 2.73,
            "edge": 0.1442,
            "ev": 0.3936,
            "implied_prob": 0.3663,
            "model_prob": 0.5105
          },
          "draw": {
            "best_odd": 3.75,
            "edge": -0.0159,
            "ev": -0.0597,
            "implied_prob": 0.2667,
            "model_prob": 0.2508
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "best_odd": 2.54,
            "edge": -0.1549,
            "ev": -0.3935,
            "implied_prob": 0.3937,
            "model_prob": 0.2388
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "alpha_no": 0.4008,
          "alpha_yes": 0.5511,
          "best_no_odd": 2.63,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.47,
          "btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
          "edge_no": 0.0309,
          "edge_yes": -0.0309,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": 0.0257,
          "ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0464,
          "ev_yes": -0.1033,
          "ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1019,
          "implied_no": 0.3591,
          "implied_yes": 0.6409,
          "market_first": {
            "available": true,
            "mode": "market_first_btts",
            "n_bookmakers": 7,
            "no": {
              "alpha": 0.4008,
              "best_odd": 2.565,
              "edge": 0.0122,
              "ev": -0.0464,
              "implied_prob": 0.3596,
              "model_prob": 0.39,
              "p_final": 0.3718
            },
            "prediction_confidence": "high",
            "yes": {
              "alpha": 0.5511,
              "best_odd": 1.44,
              "edge": -0.0168,
              "ev": -0.1019,
              "implied_prob": 0.6404,
              "model_prob": 0.61,
              "p_final": 0.6237
            }
          },
          "n_bookmakers": 7,
          "p_final_no": 0.3718,
          "p_final_yes": 0.6237,
          "prediction_confidence": "high",
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "alpha_over": 0.5754,
          "alpha_under": 0.4184,
          "best_over_odd": 1.6,
          "best_under_odd": 2.45,
          "consensus_over_odd": 1.525,
          "consensus_under_odd": 2.38,
          "edge_over": -0.0025,
          "edge_under": 0.0025,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": -0.0288,
          "ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0727,
          "ev_under": -0.0372,
          "ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0681,
          "implied_over": 0.6095,
          "implied_over_mf": 0.6095,
          "implied_under": 0.3905,
          "implied_under_mf": 0.3905,
          "market_first": {
            "available": true,
            "mode": "market_first_ou",
            "n_bookmakers": 7,
            "over": {
              "alpha": 0.5754,
              "best_odd": 1.525,
              "edge": -0.0014,
              "ev": -0.0727,
              "implied_prob": 0.6095,
              "model_prob": 0.607,
              "p_final": 0.6081
            },
            "prediction_confidence": "high",
            "under": {
              "alpha": 0.4184,
              "best_odd": 2.38,
              "edge": 0.001,
              "ev": -0.0681,
              "implied_prob": 0.3905,
              "model_prob": 0.393,
              "p_final": 0.3916
            }
          },
          "n_bookmakers": 7,
          "ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
          "p_final_over": 0.6081,
          "p_final_under": 0.3916,
          "prediction_confidence": "high",
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 3.14,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.5.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_consensus_ev": 0.0765,
      "best_outlier_ev": 0.3936,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.0765,
      "confidence": 6.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "breakdown_v2": [
          "Base decision score (v1)",
          "Reliability supports action",
          "Market aligns with model",
          "Consensus-line +EV",
          "Clear xG separation"
        ],
        "score": 7.5,
        "score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
        "score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.0,
        "strength_v2": true
      },
      "decision_strength_v2": {
        "breakdown": [
          "Base decision score (v1)",
          "Reliability supports action",
          "Market aligns with model",
          "Consensus-line +EV",
          "Clear xG separation"
        ],
        "score": 7.5,
        "score_pre_penalty": 7.0
      },
      "decision_type": "PRIMARY",
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": true,
        "1x2_open_contest": false,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "final_action": "primary",
      "final_decision": {
        "action": "primary",
        "alignment": {
          "direction_aligned": true,
          "direction_key": "agree",
          "gap_pp": 15.3,
          "key": "agree",
          "label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
          "model_strong": false,
          "pricing_aligned": false,
          "pricing_key": "low",
          "probability_gap_pp": 15.3,
          "summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Southampton), but pricing still diverges by 15.3 pp."
        },
        "alignment_key": "agree",
        "best_consensus_ev": 0.0765,
        "best_outlier_ev": 0.3936,
        "confidence_band": "High",
        "decision_strength": 7.5,
        "decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
        "decision_strength_v2": 7.0,
        "decision_type": "PRIMARY",
        "execution_confidence": 73,
        "extreme_disagreement": false,
        "final_verdict_audit": {
          "action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
          "action_label": "Action",
          "decision": "Primary Bet",
          "is_primary": true,
          "snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Southampton at 51.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.8%.",
          "why": [
            {
              "text": "Decision Model identifies Southampton as the value side (51.0%)",
              "tone": "ok"
            },
            {
              "text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
              "tone": "ok"
            },
            {
              "text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
              "tone": "ok"
            }
          ],
          "why_label": "Decision Summary"
        },
        "gap_pp": 15.3,
        "gates_failed": [],
        "has_top_pick": true,
        "headline": "Primary Bet",
        "hero_mode": "default",
        "icon": "\u2713",
        "label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
        "market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
        "model_conflict_detail": null,
        "model_lean": "Southampton",
        "no_primary_reasons": null,
        "outlier_detected": true,
        "outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Southampton \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.73 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +39% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1563200 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.73 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +7.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
        "primary_allowed": true,
        "primary_block_explain": null,
        "primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
        "primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.5/10 (display only)",
        "primary_gates": {
          "items": [
            {
              "key": "extreme_gap",
              "label": "Extreme gap",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "no"
            },
            {
              "key": "xg_calibration",
              "label": "xG calibration",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "ok"
            },
            {
              "key": "reliability",
              "label": "Rel",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "70 (\u226565)"
            },
            {
              "key": "execution",
              "label": "Exec",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "73 (\u226565)"
            },
            {
              "key": "alignment",
              "label": "Align",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "agree"
            },
            {
              "key": "consensus_ev",
              "label": "ConsEV",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "+7.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
            },
            {
              "key": "top_pick",
              "label": "Pick",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "true"
            },
            {
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "true"
            }
          ],
          "passed": 8,
          "total": 8
        },
        "primary_type": "market_confirmed",
        "reasons": [
          "Model and market favour the same side (Southampton), but pricing still diverges by 15.3 pp.",
          "Decision strength: 7.5/10",
          "Outlier price +39% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
        ],
        "reliability_score": 70,
        "speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
        "strength_v2_breakdown": [
          "Base decision score (v1)",
          "Reliability supports action",
          "Market aligns with model",
          "Consensus-line +EV",
          "Clear xG separation"
        ],
        "subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
        "thresholds": {
          "extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
          "lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
          "lean_min_strength": 5.0,
          "min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
          "min_execution": 65,
          "min_reliability": 65,
          "min_strength": 7.0,
          "source": "db",
          "user_id": 2
        },
        "thresholds_source": "db",
        "thresholds_user_id": 2,
        "tier": "actionable",
        "validation_ok": true,
        "value_context": {
          "consensus_ev": 0.0765,
          "consensus_ev_display": "+7.6%",
          "consensus_odds": 2.62,
          "disagreement_label": "Strong",
          "disagreement_level": "strong",
          "implied_prob": 0.3579,
          "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
          "model_prob": 0.5105,
          "raw_edge_display": "+15.3 percentage points",
          "raw_edge_pp": 15.3,
          "raw_implied_prob": 0.38167938931297707,
          "raw_signal_ev": 0.3375,
          "raw_signal_ev_display": "+33.8%"
        },
        "version": "v2.5",
        "xg_calibration": {
          "block_value_alert": false,
          "calibration_status": "ok",
          "deviation_pct": 44.4,
          "reasons": [
            "Clear xG separation gap=0.76"
          ],
          "recommended_action": "ok",
          "strength_delta": 0.5,
          "uplift_away": null,
          "uplift_home": null,
          "xg_separation": {
            "band": "clear",
            "block_value_alert": false,
            "separation_score": 5,
            "strength_delta": 0.5,
            "xg_gap": 0.76
          }
        }
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "high_scoring",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.61,
          "draw_prob": 0.2508,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.5105,
          "over_prob": 0.607,
          "total_xg": 3.14,
          "under_prob": 0.393,
          "xg_diff": 0.76
        },
        "type": "high_scoring",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "hero_mode": "default",
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "consensus_odds": 2.62,
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0529,
          "ev": 0.0765,
          "implied_prob": 0.3579,
          "max_ev_side": "away",
          "model_prob": 0.5105,
          "side": "away",
          "side_label": "Southampton"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "small_edge",
          "decision_layer": {
            "alpha": 0.4008,
            "available": true,
            "consensus_odds": 2.565,
            "edge": 0.0122,
            "market_prob": 0.3596,
            "mode": "market_first_btts",
            "model_prob": 0.39,
            "n_bookmakers": 7,
            "no": {
              "alpha": 0.4008,
              "best_odd": 2.565,
              "edge": 0.0122,
              "ev": -0.0464,
              "implied_prob": 0.3596,
              "model_prob": 0.39,
              "p_final": 0.3718
            },
            "p_final": 0.3718,
            "prediction_confidence": "high",
            "risk_adj_ev": -0.0464,
            "value_side": "no",
            "yes": {
              "alpha": 0.5511,
              "best_odd": 1.44,
              "edge": -0.0168,
              "ev": -0.1019,
              "implied_prob": 0.6404,
              "model_prob": 0.61,
              "p_final": 0.6237
            }
          },
          "edge": 0.0309,
          "ev": 0.0257,
          "implied_prob": 0.3591,
          "model_prob": 0.39,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "lean",
          "decision_layer": {
            "alpha": 0.5754,
            "available": true,
            "consensus_odds": 1.525,
            "edge": -0.0014,
            "market_prob": 0.6095,
            "mode": "market_first_ou",
            "model_prob": 0.607,
            "n_bookmakers": 7,
            "over": {
              "alpha": 0.5754,
              "best_odd": 1.525,
              "edge": -0.0014,
              "ev": -0.0727,
              "implied_prob": 0.6095,
              "model_prob": 0.607,
              "p_final": 0.6081
            },
            "p_final": 0.6081,
            "prediction_confidence": "high",
            "risk_adj_ev": -0.0727,
            "under": {
              "alpha": 0.4184,
              "best_odd": 2.38,
              "edge": 0.001,
              "ev": -0.0681,
              "implied_prob": 0.3905,
              "model_prob": 0.393,
              "p_final": 0.3916
            },
            "value_side": "over"
          },
          "edge": -0.0025,
          "ev": -0.0288,
          "implied_prob": 0.6095,
          "model_prob": 0.607,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1563200,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "optional",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": false,
        "code": "thin_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.0765,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 0.25,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.5105,
        "draw": 0.2508,
        "home": 0.2388
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "high_total_goals"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "show_betting_primary_label": true,
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Southampton",
        "home": "Norwich City"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.031243,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.0765,
        "implied_prob": 0.3579,
        "market": "1x2",
        "model_prob": 0.5105,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "away",
        "side_label": "Southampton",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 2,
      "value_context_1x2": {
        "consensus_ev": 0.0765,
        "consensus_ev_display": "+7.6%",
        "consensus_odds": 2.62,
        "disagreement_label": "Strong",
        "disagreement_level": "strong",
        "implied_prob": 0.3579,
        "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
        "model_prob": 0.5105,
        "raw_edge_display": "+15.3 percentage points",
        "raw_edge_pp": 15.3,
        "raw_implied_prob": 0.38167938931297707,
        "raw_signal_ev": 0.3375,
        "raw_signal_ev_display": "+33.8%"
      }
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1563200,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-10-14T19:22:50.504155+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}